Covid-19 miscellany

[marc]

Ranking the vaccination rates for each state.

We got Main at the top with 40.17%, and Alabama at the bottom with 23.77%

Had hoped the top states would be higher. We'll see how the ranking is by summer.

 

[ZiprHead]

That implies that if I were to show "actual proof or evidence that the risk of catching/spreading the virus is significant" outdoors, then you would wear a mask outdoors (I already gave evidence of that, but I know you reckon otherwise).

You actually can’t so it’s a moo point.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Can't help but notice the bottom 12 voted for Trump and 17 of the top 20 voted for Biden (and of Nebraska (1 of the 3 Trump States), one of those EVs went to Biden).

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Ranking the vaccination rates for each state.

We got Main at the top with 40.17%, and Alabama at the bottom with 23.77%

Had hoped the top states would be higher. We'll see how the ranking is by summer.

If you click the other link (for single dose stats) at your link, you can see the top is at around 60%. I think you can expect that to go up slightly and that's it and I think you can expect the second dosers to go up to near the single dose stats eventually...meaning some of these New England states like Vermont, Maine, NH, CT may be up near 60% in a month for the second dose. Some of the bottom states on single dose like Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi probably won't hit 40% for the second dose.

40% is only about half of where R₀ is supposed to be to crush it.

By not completing this exercise together and crushing the virus, it appears we've made matters worse...we essentially created a petri dish the size of the planet with months of time for the virus to mutate under selection pressure of a single dose of the vaccine or other technological preventions and treatments and natural (which was already there) and so new successful virus variants are inevitable.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

*fallacy* *bullshit* *smug* *smug* *smug* *asshole-ish taunt* *bullshit*

link

Let me show a lesser paraphrased quote, regarding his decision to suspend local emergency orders relating to masks and social distancing.

I think it’s the evidence-based thing to do. I think folks that are saying that they need to be policing people at this point, if you’re saying that you really are saying you don’t believe in the vaccines, you don’t believe in the data you don’t believe in the science....We are no longer in the state of emergency.

WTF?! The words are in English, but that paragraph sure the heck isn't.

If we have widespread vaccinations that are over 99% effective, what’s the evidence basis for somebody to wear a mask now?

The vaccine effectiveness rates are very high, but not 99% high. Also, only 30% of Florida is immunized. I mean, how in the hell are we here? How did a pandemic get so polarize? If the flood gate is holding and it stopped raining, that doesn't mean you open the flood gate, you wait for the flood to recede first!

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Here's a more optimistic take:

With around 60 percent of its population vaccinated, Israel has managed to almost fully reopen its economy and crush the number of coronavirus cases and deaths to nearly zero. The country still has some requirements in place — particularly indoor masking and vaccine passport requirements — but it’s much closer to normal than it could afford to be, with any guarantee of safety, just months ago.

We still don’t know with certainty what the herd immunity threshold is. Some experts said it could be as low as 60 percent. But Israel’s data suggests that we could get our lives much closer to normal without worrying about the risk of deadly infection — at much less than 90 percent vaccination rates.

https://www.vox.com/22400322/vaccines-herd-immunity-coronavirus-israel

The threshold is probably around 70% but if 10% have gotten it and 60% are vaccinated, that may be good for some states. The article goes on to say that in Israel, they're using the vaccination passports and masking indoors and that is the new normal which allows them to open up everything. And that might work in some states with the occasional exception to wealthy, corrupt Republicans using fake vaccine passports.

...but I just don't know about these places that are like 30%-40% single dosed opening up because of the selection pressure that creates....it seems like they are creating risk for the other populations whose herd immunity comes from vaccinations.

Thoughts?

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[repoman]

Here's a more optimistic take:
With around 60 percent of its population vaccinated, Israel has managed to almost fully reopen its economy and crush the number of coronavirus cases and deaths to nearly zero. The country still has some requirements in place — particularly indoor masking and vaccine passport requirements — but it’s much closer to normal than it could afford to be, with any guarantee of safety, just months ago.

We still don’t know with certainty what the herd immunity threshold is. Some experts said it could be as low as 60 percent. But Israel’s data suggests that we could get our lives much closer to normal without worrying about the risk of deadly infection — at much less than 90 percent vaccination rates.
https://www.vox.com/22400322/vaccine...navirus-israel

The threshold is probably around 70% but if 10% have gotten it and 60% are vaccinated, that may be good for some states. The article goes on to say that in Israel, they're using the vaccination passports and masking indoors and that is the new normal which allows them to open up everything. And that might work in some states with the occasional exception to wealthy, corrupt Republicans using fake vaccine passports.

...but I just don't know about these places that are like 30%-40% single dosed opening up because of the selection pressure that creates....it seems like they are creating risk for the other populations whose herd immunity comes from vaccinations.

Thoughts?

Hey, that is against the revised WHO guidelines

 

[Loren Pechtel]

100% coverage of medical bills/lost income incurred from the very rare vaccine side effects would go a long way to obliterating vaccine hesitancy.

I believe that's what we have now. It's just it actually has to be the vaccine, not the idiotic claims of the anti-vaxxers.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Here's a more optimistic take:
With around 60 percent of its population vaccinated, Israel has managed to almost fully reopen its economy and crush the number of coronavirus cases and deaths to nearly zero. The country still has some requirements in place — particularly indoor masking and vaccine passport requirements — but it’s much closer to normal than it could afford to be, with any guarantee of safety, just months ago.

We still don’t know with certainty what the herd immunity threshold is. Some experts said it could be as low as 60 percent. But Israel’s data suggests that we could get our lives much closer to normal without worrying about the risk of deadly infection — at much less than 90 percent vaccination rates.
https://www.vox.com/22400322/vaccine...navirus-israel

The threshold is probably around 70% but if 10% have gotten it and 60% are vaccinated, that may be good for some states. The article goes on to say that in Israel, they're using the vaccination passports and masking indoors and that is the new normal which allows them to open up everything. And that might work in some states with the occasional exception to wealthy, corrupt Republicans using fake vaccine passports.

...but I just don't know about these places that are like 30%-40% single dosed opening up because of the selection pressure that creates....it seems like they are creating risk for the other populations whose herd immunity comes from vaccinations.

Thoughts?

Hey, that is against the revised WHO guidelines

View attachment 33323

View attachment 33324

Reality: We have learned that having survived the virus doesn't give immunity to variants, but the vaccine gives a lot of protection. Thus you can't get herd immunity from infections, only from vaccine. That's why WHO changed what it's saying.

 

[TSwizzle]

Even the Canadians are getting sick of this shit;

What began as a generally peaceful protest against Quebec’s public health measures near the Olympic Stadium on Saturday ended with tear gas and arrests when a smaller crowd began throwing rocks, fireworks and smoke bombs at police officers, Montreal police said. The event was one of many organized in Quebec over the next few weeks to protest against mask-wearing, vaccination passports, and the curfew, among other things. “We’re here to support the cause, to stop the restrictions, and to go back to a normal life,” said Jelena, who attended the protest with her friend Antonella

https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/thousands-protest-covid-19-health-measures-in-montreal

 

[Rhea]

We’re all sick of It. Wish people had behaved responsibly last year so we could have been done.

 

[DrZoidberg]

On Thursday Denmark is back to normal

 

[bilby]

We’re all sick of It. Wish people had behaved responsibly last year so we could have been done.

A year ago we had about ten weeks of hard lockdown. Everything stopped unless it was genuinely essential for survival.

Every case was isolated. Every contact was traced. Everyone who had so much as strayed within a few miles of a known case was tested.

Since then, we have pretty much not had to worry. We have had a few minor outbreaks with fewer than a half-dozen cases. We have detected loads of cases in quarantined arrivals from overseas, and given them appropriate treatment.

We have mandatory reporting of attendance at restaurants, shops, sporting events, etc.; This means that if a case is found outside quarantine, we can get all of the plausible contacts traced within a few days.

We are essentially 'back to normal', with the exception of overseas travel. The economy is booming.

All it took was two or three months of pain.

But there's no other way.

People tend to look at rates of growth, rather than at absolute numbers; And that's a terrible mistake. If there are >0 unquarantined cases, then you are fucked. Things are not 'getting better' because the death toll has fallen from 100/week to 75/week. Things are getting better if new cases (excluding those detected in quarantined arrivals) have remained at zero for a fortnight.

Infectious diseases only need one new case, to be unstoppable. Cutting new cases from 1,000 to 10 is meaningless, if you don't cut all the way to zero.

There are no participation trophies. No amount of effort is rewarded except that which eliminates transmission of the virus.

But the virus cannot transmit itself. If we stop carrying it to fresh victims, it goes away.

This isn't theory. It's observably true - look at Australia and New Zealand.

Sure, you could have done it last year. But there was never, is never, and never will be, a time when such an approach would fail to work. Do it now; Or in twenty years - the result will be the same. Stop people from infecting each other, and the virus is history.

You could start tomorrow.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The threshold is probably around 70% but if 10% have gotten it and 60% are vaccinated, that may be good for some states. The article goes on to say that in Israel, they're using the vaccination passports and masking indoors and that is the new normal which allows them to open up everything. And that might work in some states with the occasional exception to wealthy, corrupt Republicans using fake vaccine passports.

...but I just don't know about these places that are like 30%-40% single dosed opening up because of the selection pressure that creates....it seems like they are creating risk for the other populations whose herd immunity comes from vaccinations.

Thoughts?

You open up after you have vaccinated not before or during. Things are better, with more people vaccinated, but the truth is, there are still pressures against the vaccine that will stop existing if the masks go away, clubs open up. That is having a notable impact still. The good news is the deaths should be lower, though hospitals could still get overwhelmed. And then it is a waiting game on a mutation that changes everything, which may or may not happen.

 

[ZiprHead]

Here's a more optimistic take:

With around 60 percent of its population vaccinated, Israel has managed to almost fully reopen its economy and crush the number of coronavirus cases and deaths to nearly zero. The country still has some requirements in place — particularly indoor masking and vaccine passport requirements — but it’s much closer to normal than it could afford to be, with any guarantee of safety, just months ago.

We still don’t know with certainty what the herd immunity threshold is. Some experts said it could be as low as 60 percent. But Israel’s data suggests that we could get our lives much closer to normal without worrying about the risk of deadly infection — at much less than 90 percent vaccination rates.

https://www.vox.com/22400322/vaccines-herd-immunity-coronavirus-israel

The threshold is probably around 70% but if 10% have gotten it and 60% are vaccinated, that may be good for some states. The article goes on to say that in Israel, they're using the vaccination passports and masking indoors and that is the new normal which allows them to open up everything. And that might work in some states with the occasional exception to wealthy, corrupt Republicans using fake vaccine passports.

...but I just don't know about these places that are like 30%-40% single dosed opening up because of the selection pressure that creates....it seems like they are creating risk for the other populations whose herd immunity comes from vaccinations.

Thoughts?

It's not just wealthy republicans using fake vaccine passports. Fake documents and how to create them are being spread all over the net.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Sure, you could have done it last year. But there was never, is never, and never will be, a time when such an approach would fail to work. Do it now; Or in twenty years - the result will be the same. Stop people from infecting each other, and the virus is history.

You could start tomorrow.

We can't. We literally have too many people that are lying to themselves about the danger, the death toll, every fallacy our right-wing media has put forth. It'll be like when the FBI came to get Cliven Bundy and all the gun nuts got together to form a defense. Yeah, the FBI could have mowed those fuckers down, but is that really a win? People will protest, in fact, they'll purposefully enact with behavior that is more likely to spread the disease. The US didn't have as good a shot with Covid as New Zealand and Australia because Trump had America's ass hanging out on the east coast towards Europe, and then he created the close access from Europe panic which likely spread it more. But the US could have written a check up front for a true lockdown for a month or two. I remember drag racing forms around to get my Dad's life insurance policies into the mail as quick as possible thinking that was going to happen.

Instead, Trump told people it is like the flu, it'll go away in the Summer, and there is no turning that back. And it is an outrage that our country is that far gone.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Here's a more optimistic take:

With around 60 percent of its population vaccinated, Israel has managed to almost fully reopen its economy and crush the number of coronavirus cases and deaths to nearly zero. The country still has some requirements in place — particularly indoor masking and vaccine passport requirements — but it’s much closer to normal than it could afford to be, with any guarantee of safety, just months ago.

We still don’t know with certainty what the herd immunity threshold is. Some experts said it could be as low as 60 percent. But Israel’s data suggests that we could get our lives much closer to normal without worrying about the risk of deadly infection — at much less than 90 percent vaccination rates.

https://www.vox.com/22400322/vaccines-herd-immunity-coronavirus-israel

The threshold is probably around 70% but if 10% have gotten it and 60% are vaccinated, that may be good for some states. The article goes on to say that in Israel, they're using the vaccination passports and masking indoors and that is the new normal which allows them to open up everything. And that might work in some states with the occasional exception to wealthy, corrupt Republicans using fake vaccine passports.

...but I just don't know about these places that are like 30%-40% single dosed opening up because of the selection pressure that creates....it seems like they are creating risk for the other populations whose herd immunity comes from vaccinations.

Thoughts?

It's not just wealthy republicans using fake vaccine passports. Fake documents and how to create them are being spread all over the net.

My problem is that my legit docs don't look in any way official. Yet another failure of the Trump Admin is preparation for the vaccination.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

We’re all sick of It. Wish people had behaved responsibly last year so we could have been done.

Exactly. Being sick of it doesn't mean it's not needed.

 

[Toni]

We’re all sick of It. Wish people had behaved responsibly last year so we could have been done.

A year ago we had about ten weeks of hard lockdown. Everything stopped unless it was genuinely essential for survival.

Every case was isolated. Every contact was traced. Everyone who had so much as strayed within a few miles of a known case was tested.

Since then, we have pretty much not had to worry. We have had a few minor outbreaks with fewer than a half-dozen cases. We have detected loads of cases in quarantined arrivals from overseas, and given them appropriate treatment.

We have mandatory reporting of attendance at restaurants, shops, sporting events, etc.; This means that if a case is found outside quarantine, we can get all of the plausible contacts traced within a few days.

We are essentially 'back to normal', with the exception of overseas travel. The economy is booming.

All it took was two or three months of pain.

But there's no other way.

People tend to look at rates of growth, rather than at absolute numbers; And that's a terrible mistake. If there are >0 unquarantined cases, then you are fucked. Things are not 'getting better' because the death toll has fallen from 100/week to 75/week. Things are getting better if new cases (excluding those detected in quarantined arrivals) have remained at zero for a fortnight.

Infectious diseases only need one new case, to be unstoppable. Cutting new cases from 1,000 to 10 is meaningless, if you don't cut all the way to zero.

There are no participation trophies. No amount of effort is rewarded except that which eliminates transmission of the virus.

But the virus cannot transmit itself. If we stop carrying it to fresh victims, it goes away.

This isn't theory. It's observably true - look at Australia and New Zealand.

Sure, you could have done it last year. But there was never, is never, and never will be, a time when such an approach would fail to work. Do it now; Or in twenty years - the result will be the same. Stop people from infecting each other, and the virus is history.

You could start tomorrow.

Of course, you're vaccinated, right?

Actually, we started on January 20, 2021.