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Covid-19 miscellany

... our western post-war culture sucks balls at calculating risks and that we habitually exaggerate risk. We downplay the costs of risk avoidance.

Is this as true in Denmark as it is in the US? I have long attributed it to the politics of fear that has been institutionalized in the US since 2001. As soon as I heard the phrase "Department of Homeland Security" my mind was reading it in a voice with thick German accent. And it has panned out just like I ... uh ... feared.
It's real good for stuff like gun sales, not so good for people who have been made into objects of fear (blacks, immigrants, muslims, women...).

This is complicated to compare since neither of us have lived outside our country during the Covid-19 pandemic.

News filters a lot of information out.

Denmark went the cautious route early. Which worked great. Spread was low. Life went on much like normal.

The prime minister picked one strategy and was consistent.

But was it necessary? I'm not so sure.

Its easier for me to compare with Sweden.

Sweden did quite ok as well. They also picked one strategy and followed it consistently. They had a higher mortality and a lot more sick. But more freedom.

Psychologically I think Swedes now are in better shape than Danes. The lock down and social isolatiin has taken its toll.

I think the peace and prosperity of the post-war west is, what is making us so afraid. Its like the less real things, we have to fear the more afraid we become
 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sc...eak-11622995184?mod=searchresults_pos1&page=1

The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak
The Covid-19 pathogen has a genetic footprint that has never been observed in a natural coronavirus.



In gain-of-function research, a microbiologist can increase the lethality of a coronavirus enormously by splicing a special sequence into its genome at a prime location. Doing this leaves no trace of manipulation. But it alters the virus spike protein, rendering it easier for the virus to inject genetic material into the victim cell. Since 1992 there have been at least 11 separate experiments adding a special sequence to the same location. The end result has always been supercharged viruses.
 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sc...eak-11622995184?mod=searchresults_pos1&page=1

The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak
The Covid-19 pathogen has a genetic footprint that has never been observed in a natural coronavirus.



In gain-of-function research, a microbiologist can increase the lethality of a coronavirus enormously by splicing a special sequence into its genome at a prime location. Doing this leaves no trace of manipulation. But it alters the virus spike protein, rendering it easier for the virus to inject genetic material into the victim cell. Since 1992 there have been at least 11 separate experiments adding a special sequence to the same location. The end result has always been supercharged viruses.

1) Hypothetically this is possible
2) Therefore that.

Jebus... weak weak weak.

X virus configuration hasn't been seen in nature. No shit Sherlock. We find utterly bizarre viruses in the wild all the time. It's not hard to find novel viruses, not found anywhere, in the wild. Without further explanation that line is dumb.
 
I think you proved his point. That our culture is overly extreme on this. That's it's a good vs evil black and white dichotomy and you're either with us or against us. And since you identified him as being on the other side, you went full on pinning all manner of other implied beliefs onto him.

He's not arguing "the other side". He's saying that our western post-war culture sucks balls at calculating risks and that we habitually exaggerate risk. We downplay the costs of risk avoidance. At our peril. Do you disagree with that opinion?
Well Yes, I disagree with the opinion that he is not "arguing the other side." He very clearly seems to think that governments were overestimating the risks of the virus when they chose stronger policies.

You are correct that I pinned some implied beliefs on him, but I don't have access to the guy to clarify his beliefs, I only have a short video essay which bothers to waste time opining on the best way to die, but is negligent on mentioning other significant factors that policy makers ought to consider when making pandemic policies.

As to the opinion that "we habitually exaggerate risk, and downplay the costs of risk avoidance," I refuse to broad-brush that statement with a simple agree/disagree categorical judgement. Many policies are very well calibrated to the risks they seek to address, some policies are not. Some policies in some countries are better calibrated than the policies in other countries. I do not disagree with the statement that, "People are typically very bad at estimating risks." I do disagree with the statement that, "Experts are typically very bad at estimating risks."

Which I think also has been TSwizzle's point in this thread. Even though he's argued for it badly. I do think he has a point.
Well, then we still disagree.

As for a further thought on the video, it is worth noting that the video is rather recent and has the benefit of hindsight and more than a year's worth of experience to help us put the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. Policy makers didn't have that at the beginning of the pandemic when their actions, whatever they chose, would have the most impact. It was impossible to calculate the risks because the nature of the virus and the disease were sill unknown. Even now the long term effects of this disease are still unknown. But the guy in the video is confident that governments over-reacted and he makes that calculation based on the great costs that the containment policies have had on economies, human psyches, an the other unknown fallouts.

But that's the thing. Many if not all of the negatives associated with government "over-reaction" are unknown and probably unmeasurable. In other words, he is failing to accurately estimate these risks too.

You see while humans over-estimate risks that remain out of our control, we are even even worse at evaluating risks that are out of our understanding. Which is exactly what I see him doing in his presentation. Weighing the unknown damage due to shutdowns against the now better known damage of the disease and insisting that governments over-reacted.

There is no way to know definitively who is right. It's possible that if the whole world had cooperated (lol) and gone truly draconian for three months we might have squashed the virus outright and done less damage to the economy and humanity than any other scenario. Or it may be true that squashing this virus was always impossible and the whole world should have done a Sweden. Personally, I trust the scientists, and almost none of them were advocating for a Sweden.
 
I think you proved his point. That our culture is overly extreme on this. That's it's a good vs evil black and white dichotomy and you're either with us or against us. And since you identified him as being on the other side, you went full on pinning all manner of other implied beliefs onto him.

He's not arguing "the other side". He's saying that our western post-war culture sucks balls at calculating risks and that we habitually exaggerate risk. We downplay the costs of risk avoidance. At our peril. Do you disagree with that opinion?
Well Yes, I disagree with the opinion that he is not "arguing the other side." He very clearly seems to think that governments were overestimating the risks of the virus when they chose stronger policies.

You are correct that I pinned some implied beliefs on him, but I don't have access to the guy to clarify his beliefs, I only have a short video essay which bothers to waste time to opining on the best way to die, but is negligent on mentioning other significant factors that policy makers ought to consider when making pandemic policies.

As to the opinion that "we habitually exaggerate risk, and downplay the costs of risk avoidance," I refuse to broad-brush that statement with a simple agree/disagree categorical judgement. Many policies are very well calibrated to the risks they seek to address, some policies are not. Some policies in some countries are better calibrated than the policies in other countries. I do not disagree with the statement that, "People are typically very bad at estimating risks." I do disagree with the statement that, "Experts are typically very bad at estimating risks."

Sweden's Covid-19 strategy was a complete shit show. Calling it a strategy is being kind. It wasn't as bad as the UK's. But still a complete joke.

But here's the troubling piece of data.

In hindsight Sweden's Covid-19 (non-) strategy wasn't that bad. Here's a graph over Covid deaths, comparing Denmark to Sweden. Not excess deaths. Just total deaths of people with Covid-19.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...on=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=DNK~SWE

According to the statistics, after June 2020 Denmark's harsh lockdown was a waste of time. In hindsight it had probably been wiser to just let Covid-19 rip through Denmark as it did Sweden.

Sure, it's nice for Danes. We don't have to deal with all the bullshit from long term Covid and all of those complications.

But was it worth it? The lockdown was/is expensive. It's a high cost for a fairly marginal gain. Killing people who would have died anyway... meh. Some people getting long term effects making them tired so they have to stay home to rest vs locking up a population so they have to stay home anyway. Was it really worth it?

I'm not so convinced anymore.

I doubt I'll convince many here. The sunken cost cognitive bias fallacy is strong.

I suspect that the lockdown overall was good for mankind. Not because it saved lives now. But more as a dress rehearsal for the future when we get a virus that truly is dangerous. All the countries that had SARS moved swiftly and decisively on Covid-19. The societies knew exactly what to do and how. While those who hadn't had it wavered.

But I'm not so convinced anymore that we saved so many lives nor made people's lives healthier.

Me personally, I didn't go to the gym for a year. I've never been fatter and more out of shape than I am now. What's the long term health cost of that for me?

Which I think also has been TSwizzle's point in this thread. Even though he's argued for it badly. I do think he has a point.
Well, then we still disagree.

As for a further thought on the video, it is worth noting that the video is rather recent and has the benefit of hindsight and more than a year's worth of experience to help us put the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. Policy makers didn't have that at the beginning of the pandemic when their actions, whatever they chose, would have the most impact. It was impossible to calculate the risks because the nature of the virus and the disease were sill unknown. Even now the long term effects of this disease are still unknown. But the guy in the video is confident that governments over-reacted and he makes that calculation based on the great costs that the containment policies have had on economies, human psyches, an the other unknown fallouts.

But that's the thing. Many if not all of the negatives associated with government "over-reaction" are unknown and probably unmeasurable. In other words, he is failing to accurately estimate these risks too.

You see while humans over-estimate risks that remain out of our control, we are even even worse at evaluating risks that are out of our understanding. Which is exactly what I see him doing in his presentation. Weighing the unknown damage due to shutdowns against the now better known damage of the disease and insisting that governments over-reacted.

There is no way to know definitively who is right. It's possible that if the whole world had cooperated and gone truly draconian for three months we might have squashed the virus outright and done less damage to the economy than any other scenario. Or it may be true that squashing this virus was always impossible and the whole world should have done a Sweden. Personally, I trust the scientists, and almost none of them were advocating for a Sweden.


I agree with all of this. Yes, the video is made in hind-sight. Is that a bad thing? Isn't the point of science to learn from previous mistakes so we can avoid repeating them?
 

1) Hypothetically this is possible
2) Therefore that.

Jebus... weak weak weak.

X virus configuration hasn't been seen in nature. No shit Sherlock. We find utterly bizarre viruses in the wild all the time. It's not hard to find novel viruses, not found anywhere, in the wild. Without further explanation that line is dumb.
No, it does not work that way. You don't find viruses which come from nowhere and so contagious.
They claim evidence of genetic manipulation.
 

1) Hypothetically this is possible
2) Therefore that.

Jebus... weak weak weak.

X virus configuration hasn't been seen in nature. No shit Sherlock. We find utterly bizarre viruses in the wild all the time. It's not hard to find novel viruses, not found anywhere, in the wild. Without further explanation that line is dumb.
No, it does not work that way. You don't find viruses which come from nowhere and so contagious.
They claim evidence of genetic manipulation.

No, they're putting out irrelevant facts in order for the reader to make that conclusion for them. Because I highly doubt journalistic ethics would allow them to make the statement outright.

All the top virologists in the whole world agree that the virus couldn't have been made by current tools. If it was manipulated, we'd know. They also go on to say that it looks just like we'd expect if it came from a wild bat.

Yes, it's a shame that China is a totalitarian shady government totally able and capable of committing horrendous atrocities and to cover it up. The entire scientific community is well aware that China is clandestinely carrying out genetic research on humans banned in the rest of the world. This is the worst kept secret.

So it's not like we're not aware what China is or isn't capable of. When the scientists clear China from suspicion on this, they're not doing so out of naivete. They do so on scientific grounds.

And you're wrong. All contagious viruses we've had so far do come, seemingly from nowhere, and fuck us all up.
 
All the top virologists in the whole world agree that the virus couldn't have been made by current tools. If it was manipulated, we'd know.
It's not a case anymore. They excluded obvious manipulation in the beginning. Non-obvious manipulation seems to be what they are talking about and it's harder to detect.

And you're wrong. All contagious viruses we've had so far do come, seemingly from nowhere, and fuck us all up.
Not true, therefore I am right and you are wrong.
 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sc...eak-11622995184?mod=searchresults_pos1&page=1

The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak
The Covid-19 pathogen has a genetic footprint that has never been observed in a natural coronavirus.
That is an Op-Ed. It is written by a Doctor, but seemingly more of a businessman Steven Quay and Richard Muller, a Global Warming denier Physicist.

And any article that is trying to be scientific that says "But the most compelling reason to favor the lab leak hypothesis is firmly based in science." should be discarded immediately. Of course, this doesn't mean it can't have been manipulated or leaked or whatever, just that the link is to an Op-Ed of people that aren't exactly in the position to be making these exotic claims. It is mostly behind a paywall, but comes with the feel of 'evolution is false because DNA couldn't have been formed by random chance'.
 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sc...eak-11622995184?mod=searchresults_pos1&page=1

The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak
The Covid-19 pathogen has a genetic footprint that has never been observed in a natural coronavirus.
That is an Op-Ed. It is written by a Doctor, but seemingly more of a businessman Steven Quay and Richard Muller, a Global Warming denier Physicist.

And any article that is trying to be scientific that says "But the most compelling reason to favor the lab leak hypothesis is firmly based in science." should be discarded immediately. Of course, this doesn't mean it can't have been manipulated or leaked or whatever, just that the link is to an Op-Ed of people that aren't exactly in the position to be making these exotic claims.
Damn freedom of the press.
 
That is an Op-Ed. It is written by a Doctor, but seemingly more of a businessman Steven Quay and Richard Muller, a Global Warming denier Physicist.

And any article that is trying to be scientific that says "But the most compelling reason to favor the lab leak hypothesis is firmly based in science." should be discarded immediately. Of course, this doesn't mean it can't have been manipulated or leaked or whatever, just that the link is to an Op-Ed of people that aren't exactly in the position to be making these exotic claims.
Damn freedom of the press.
But it isn't journalism, this is the editorial, we aren't reporting this as fact, part of the newspaper. There is massive significance to that.
 
Regardless, "gain of function" term has been mentioned before by the US government critters. So I would like somebody to clarify how exactly are they gaining that function.
Could be accelerated evolution in some Chinese petri dish, which was eventually dropped.
 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-sc...eak-11622995184?mod=searchresults_pos1&page=1

The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak
The Covid-19 pathogen has a genetic footprint that has never been observed in a natural coronavirus.
That is an Op-Ed. It is written by a Doctor, but seemingly more of a businessman Steven Quay and Richard Muller, a Global Warming denier Physicist.

And any article that is trying to be scientific that says "But the most compelling reason to favor the lab leak hypothesis is firmly based in science." should be discarded immediately. Of course, this doesn't mean it can't have been manipulated or leaked or whatever, just that the link is to an Op-Ed of people that aren't exactly in the position to be making these exotic claims. It is mostly behind a paywall, but comes with the feel of 'evolution is false because DNA couldn't have been formed by random chance'.

Why is it that these climate deniers also turn out to be Republicans, evangelical Christians, anti-maskers, conspiracy theorists and now Chinas bio-weapon believers? Why can't these guys turn their conspiracy theory lens onto themselves for once?
 
Looks like the Trump Admin reopened the gates to 'gain of function' research.
article said:
The government reversed course in January 2017 after the NSABB concluded that very few such experiments posed a risk to public safety. The NIH lifted its ban on funding gain-of-function research in December 2017, after the HHS and the White House developed a system for vetting proposed experiments — creating the expert panel in the process.

The related debate over how much to disclose about such research reignited in 2019 following media reports that the government had approved two gain-of-function experiments.

And this is in real-time from The Lancet.
The Lancet article said:
The US moratorium on gain-of-function experiments has been rescinded, but scientists are split over the benefits—and risks—of such studies. Talha Burki reports.

On Dec 19, 2017, the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) announced that they would resume funding gain-of-function experiments involving influenza, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. A moratorium had been in place since October, 2014. At the time, the NIH had stated that the moratorium “will be effective until a robust and broad deliberative process is completed that results in the adoption of a new US Government gain-of-function research policy”. This process has now concluded. It was spearheaded by the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity (NSABB) and led to the development of a new framework for assessing funding decisions for research involving pathogens with enhanced pandemic potential. The release of the framework by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), of which NIH is part, signalled the end of the funding pause.
The situation has its roots in 2011, when the NSABB suppressed two studies involving H5N1 viruses that had been modified to allow airborne transmission from ferret to ferret. They worried that malign actors could replicate the work to deliberately cause an outbreak in human beings. After much debate, the studies were published in full in 2012. HHS subsequently issued guidelines for funding decisions on experiments likely to result in highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses transmissible from mammal to mammal via respiratory droplets. The guidelines were later expanded to include H7N9 viruses.

In 2014, several breaches of protocol at US government laboratories brought matters to a head. The news that dozens of workers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) might have been exposed to anthrax, that vials of smallpox virus had been left lying around in an NIH storeroom, and that the CDC had unwittingly sent out samples of ordinary influenza virus contaminated with H5N1, shook faith in the country's biosafety procedures. Over 200 scientists signed the Cambridge Working Group declaration arguing for a cessation of experiments creating potential pandemic pathogens “until there has been a quantitative, objective and credible assessment of the risks, potential benefits, and opportunities for risk mitigation, as well as comparison against safer experimental approaches”.
I think I recall NPR reporting on this, about the pros and cons of publishing such studies.
 
Are any of the people booted from social media for reasonably bringing up lab leak as a possibility being reinstated?
 
Are any of the people booted from social media for reasonably bringing up lab leak as a possibility being reinstated?

Can you name some names?
From what I can tell two guys got an OP-ED published in the WSJ, so umm... not thinking there is some sort of conspiracy against people blaming a lab.

Not that it has been demonstrated at all it was released from a lab, and maybe even doubtful as a MD and Physics prof needed to publish an Op-Ed on this, and not a science article or a peer reviewed article in a journal.
 
Are any of the people booted from social media for reasonably bringing up lab leak as a possibility being reinstated?

I don't see how that lie, or truth, whatever it is, puts Americans in danger.

The problem was the incompetence and deliberate lies from Trump diminishing the risk.

A president that declares a dangerous pandemic is not that dangerous kills people.

They cause some to take it less seriously and cause the spread to be worse.

For US victims of Trump's lies that amounted to tens of millions of Trump cult members.
 
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