Democrats 2020

[lpetrich]

Tulsi Gabbard says she will run for president in 2020 - CNNPolitics

"I have decided to run and will be making a formal announcement within the next week," the Hawaii Democrat told CNN's Van Jones during an interview slated to air at 7 p.m. Saturday on CNN's "The Van Jones Show."

Gabbard, an Iraq War veteran, currently serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. She is the first American Samoan and the first Hindu member of Congress.

...
Rania Batrice, who was a deputy campaign manager for Bernie Sanders in 2016 and is now a top aide to Gabbard, will be the campaign manager, Batrice says.

She was a big supporter of Bernie Sanders back in 2016, and she may continue to support similar policies. She also wants a non-interventionist foreign policy, and she met Syrian president Bashar Assad in 2017, a move that caused some controversy.

Of other candidates, Julian Castro may announce soon.

 

[southernhybrid]

I read about Tulsi Gabbard's decision to run earlier this morning. I don't think she has nearly enough experience for the job.

Kamala Harris is likely to announce that she will run soon. She's been a guest on many shows this week, recently wrote a book and she said she will announce her decision within the next two weeks. She's hired a lot of new staff. It appears that she has already decided to run but isn't quite ready to make an official announcement.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Tulsi Gabbard says she will run for president in 2020 - CNNPolitics

"I have decided to run and will be making a formal announcement within the next week," the Hawaii Democrat told CNN's Van Jones during an interview slated to air at 7 p.m. Saturday on CNN's "The Van Jones Show."

Gabbard, an Iraq War veteran, currently serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. She is the first American Samoan and the first Hindu member of Congress.

...
Rania Batrice, who was a deputy campaign manager for Bernie Sanders in 2016 and is now a top aide to Gabbard, will be the campaign manager, Batrice says.

She was a big supporter of Bernie Sanders back in 2016, and she may continue to support similar policies. She also wants a non-interventionist foreign policy, and she met Syrian president Bashar Assad in 2017, a move that caused some controversy.

Of other candidates, Julian Castro may announce soon.

I wonder if this means that she has inside info that Sanders isn't running?

 

[lpetrich]

... Kamala Harris is likely to announce that she will run soon. She's been a guest on many shows this week, recently wrote a book and she said she will announce her decision within the next two weeks. She's hired a lot of new staff. It appears that she has already decided to run but isn't quite ready to make an official announcement.

In an earlier post in this thread, I collected 538.com's signs of running for President:

Visiting IA, NH, and SC, having a book, poll, and magazine profile, and campaigning.

Both Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris have visited Iowa, and EW may soon visit New Hampshire and KH South Carolina.

Reports: Kamala Harris to launch 2020 presidential run around MLK Day (Jan 21).
Harris schedules first South Carolina visit - POLITICO
Warren to make New Hampshire visit over the weekend | TheHill Julian Castro may also visit that state.
“Maybe we don’t need Oprah.” Early-state Dems sound off on 2020 | McClatchy Washington Bureau

Kamala Harris's 'The Truths We Hold': Review - The Atlantic - that's her book

But unlike Harris’s many viral #resistance moments and meticulous snapshots of relatability, the memoir itself is a meandering work that lacks verve. More significantly, given far more than 280 characters to deliver a cohesive message, Harris doesn’t meaningfully reconcile her punitive track record as a California prosecutor with her more recent activist-adjacent positioning as a national Democratic darling.

The Truths We Hold traces Harris’s life and entrance into political office in 10 chapters. The book offers anecdotes meant to endear her to a diverse (or #woke) readership as well as glimpses into Harris’s political worldview; the resultant mix is somewhat muddled.

Meaning that if she gets nominated, her Republican opponent may try to run on her left, as a previous one once did about marijuana.

 

[lpetrich]

What The Potential 2020 Candidates Are Doing And Saying, Vol. 1 | FiveThirtyEight

Flake on Monday tweeted a defense of his replacement, Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, after a national Republican committeeman referred to her as “Senator Madonna” in a Facebook post and said she was elected in part because of “dumb ass people.”

No, @kyrstensinema won because she ran a good race and had a message that resonated with Arizona's voters. The sooner we Republicans recognize this, the sooner we will we be in a position to win the next contest. https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...-kyrsten-synema-gop-official-says/2494017002/ …

Sherrod Brown's wife stated that he will decide on whether or not to run “within the next two months.”

About Kirsten Gillibrand,

Gillibrand has been reaching out to Wall Street executives to evaluate support for a potential presidential campaign but has been met with divided responses, CNBC reported.

Kirsten Gillibrand reaches out to Wall Street execs about potential 2020 run for president

• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has been reaching out to Wall Street executives about supporting a potential 2020 run for president.
• Gillibrand has gotten a mixed response from the executives.
• The New York Democrat’s effort comes as she contemplates entering what will likely be an expensive and protracted Democratic primary.

 

[Terrell]

Many of these candidates will likely be gone before the Iowa Caucus. By South Carolina it may be down to as few as 3. We'll have to see how the candidates do in the fall debates and how their poll numbers hold up. I think it's too early to see who the field narrows down to.

 

[lpetrich]

Julian Castro, Obama cabinet member, announces bid for 2020 president

His highest elected office was Mayor of San Antonio, Texas.

 

[lpetrich]

The 5 Corners Of The 2020 Democratic Primary | FiveThirtyEight

First mentioned five main factions in the Republican Party:

• Moderate
• Libertarian
• Establishment
• Tea Party
• Christian Conservative

Donald Trump's victory was a surprise, because he straddled some of these categories, seeming like the Tea Party on immigration and a Northeastern moderate on economics.

The article continues with five groups of Democrats:

• Party Loyalists
• The Left
• Millennials and Friends
• Black voters
• Hispanic voters (sometimes in combination with Asian voters)

Women? On average 60% of Democratic-primary voters, and likely the majority of all these groups with the possible exception of The Left.

The authors speculate that Democrats will need to get support from at least three of these groups to win, pointing to how Hillary Clinton won with Party Loyalists, Blacks, and Hispanics, though Bernie Sanders won with The Left and Millennials.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Many of these candidates will likely be gone before the Iowa Caucus. By South Carolina it may be down to as few as 3. We'll have to see how the candidates do in the fall debates and how their poll numbers hold up. I think it's too early to see who the field narrows down to.

Most states will have had their primaries by the first week in March, now including Texas and California. So by then, yes, we will see a much smaller pack. If there is a pack. It could possibly be over by then. It might be desirable for this to be over in March so as to put all efforts towards defeating Trump, if he is not by then impeached. He already has $88 million to spend.

 

[Terrell]

Many of these candidates will likely be gone before the Iowa Caucus. By South Carolina it may be down to as few as 3. We'll have to see how the candidates do in the fall debates and how their poll numbers hold up. I think it's too early to see who the field narrows down to.

Most states will have had their primaries by the first week in March, now including Texas and California. So by then, yes, we will see a much smaller pack. If there is a pack. It could possibly be over by then. It might be desirable for this to be over in March so as to put all efforts towards defeating Trump, if he is not by then impeached. He already has $88 million to spend.

I'm not talking about March. I'm talking about candidates whose campaigns won't make it to 2020 at all. They'll be out of money, have performed too poorly in the polls, or both. Unless the first 3 states to vote are changed that's Iowa, then New Hampshire, followed by South Carolina. By the time South Carolina's polls close I'd be surprised if it wasn't down to 2 or 3 candidates.

 

[lpetrich]

Their rating of the candidates' appeal, for Millennials, The Left, Party Loyalists, Hispanic/Asian, Black:

• Joe Biden: 2.5, 2, 4.5, 2.5, 3.5
• Kamala Harris: 3.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 5
• Beto O'Rourke: 4.5, 2, 4, 4, 2
• Bernie Sanders: 4, 5, 1, 2, 2
• Cory Booker: 4, 2, 3.5, 3, 4.5
• Julian Castro: 3, 2.5, 3, 5, 2.5
• Elizabeth Warren: 3.5, 4.5, 3, 2, 2
• Amy Klobuchar: 2.5, 2, 5, 2, 2
• Kirsten Gillibrand: 3, 3, 3, 3, 3
• Sherrod Brown: 2.5, 4.5, 4, 2, 3

I did a Principal Components Analysis, and I found that the largest component is for loyalists, Hispanics, and blacks together, and anti-correlated with The Left. The next component is for Hispanics, blacks, and millennials correlated, and anti-correlated with the loyalists. Then one with blacks the strongest, and Hispanics and millennials weakly correlated with them, and The Left anti-correlated. The strengths of all five components were {1.51185, 1.11926, 0.93158, 0.5809, 0.395301}.

Using the first three components, KH and CB formed a cluster, as did JC and BOR. With only the first two components, all four were close together.

The others were more scattered, with KG being near the center, and AK and BS being off in corners, like KH, CB, JC, and BOR. In fact, BS was the farthest from the center.


I then found the averages of their most fervent supporters. The numbers for top supporters:

• 5: KH JC BS AK
• 4.5: SB JB EW CB BOR
• 3: KG

For top two:

• 4.5: KH BS
• 4.25: SB CB BOR
• 4: JC JB EW
• 3.75: AK
• 3: KG

For top three:

• 4.167: KH BOR
• 4: CB
• 3.833: SB
• 3.667: JC EW BS
• 3.5: JB
• 3.167: AK
• 3: KG

Kirsten Gillibrand likely wins in dull centrism. But in interest-group enthusiasm, Kamala Harris likely wins.

 

[lpetrich]

The authors' assessment of the demographics of these five groups.

• Group 1. Party Loyalists. 30%. In the primaries, 2016, 2008 Hillary Clinton, 2004 John Kerry, 2000 Al Gore.
• Group 2. The Left. 25%. In the primaries, 2016 Bernie Sanders, 2008 mixed, 2004 Howard Dean.
• Group 3: Millennials and Friends. 30%. In the primaries, 2016 Bernie Sanders, 2008 Obama, 2004 Howard Dean.
• Group 4. Black voters. 20%. In the primaries, 2016 Hillary Clinton, 2008 Barack Obama, 2004 John Kerry.
• Group 5. Hispanic voters, sometimes in conjunction with Asian voters. 20% (15% Hispanic + 5% Asian). 2016, 2008 Hillary Clinton, 2004 John Kerry.

The numbers add up to 125%, likely from multiple group memberships, like being a black Millennial or a Hispanic loyalist.

I tried to summarize their positions without quoting the full statements in the article, but I lost patience with the mental agonies necessary.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Their rating of the candidates' appeal, for Millennials, The Left, Party Loyalists, Hispanic/Asian, Black:

• Joe Biden: 2.5, 2, 4.5, 2.5, 3.5
• Kamala Harris: 3.5, 3, 3.5, 4, 5
• Beto O'Rourke: 4.5, 2, 4, 4, 2
• Bernie Sanders: 4, 5, 1, 2, 2
• Cory Booker: 4, 2, 3.5, 3, 4.5
• Julian Castro: 3, 2.5, 3, 5, 2.5
• Elizabeth Warren: 3.5, 4.5, 3, 2, 2
• Amy Klobuchar: 2.5, 2, 5, 2, 2
• Kirsten Gillibrand: 3, 3, 3, 3, 3
• Sherrod Brown: 2.5, 4.5, 4, 2, 3

I did a Principal Components Analysis, and I found that the largest component is for loyalists, Hispanics, and blacks together, and anti-correlated with The Left. The next component is for Hispanics, blacks, and millennials correlated, and anti-correlated with the loyalists. Then one with blacks the strongest, and Hispanics and millennials weakly correlated with them, and The Left anti-correlated. The strengths of all five components were {1.51185, 1.11926, 0.93158, 0.5809, 0.395301}.

Using the first three components, KH and CB formed a cluster, as did JC and BOR. With only the first two components, all four were close together.

The others were more scattered, with KG being near the center, and AK and BS being off in corners, like KH, CB, JC, and BOR. In fact, BS was the farthest from the center.


I then found the averages of their most fervent supporters. The numbers for top supporters:

• 5: KH JC BS AK
• 4.5: SB JB EW CB BOR
• 3: KG

For top two:

• 4.5: KH BS
• 4.25: SB CB BOR
• 4: JC JB EW
• 3.75: AK
• 3: KG

For top three:

• 4.167: KH BOR
• 4: CB
• 3.833: SB
• 3.667: JC EW BS
• 3.5: JB
• 3.167: AK
• 3: KG

Kirsten Gillibrand likely wins in dull centrism. But in interest-group enthusiasm, Kamala Harris likely wins.

That was very interesting! Thanks for posting. I'm surprised that Beto scored so high with millennials. To me, the only people with a chance to beat Trump are Beto, Gillibrand, and Harris.

 

[PyramidHead]

Tulsi Gabbard says she will run for president in 2020 - CNNPolitics

"I have decided to run and will be making a formal announcement within the next week," the Hawaii Democrat told CNN's Van Jones during an interview slated to air at 7 p.m. Saturday on CNN's "The Van Jones Show."

Gabbard, an Iraq War veteran, currently serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. She is the first American Samoan and the first Hindu member of Congress.

...
Rania Batrice, who was a deputy campaign manager for Bernie Sanders in 2016 and is now a top aide to Gabbard, will be the campaign manager, Batrice says.

She was a big supporter of Bernie Sanders back in 2016, and she may continue to support similar policies. She also wants a non-interventionist foreign policy, and she met Syrian president Bashar Assad in 2017, a move that caused some controversy.

Of other candidates, Julian Castro may announce soon.

Tulsi Gabbard is the Michele Bachman of the Democratic party, I have no clue why anybody likes her unless they hate gays and Palestinians

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Tulsi Gabbard says she will run for president in 2020 - CNNPolitics

"I have decided to run and will be making a formal announcement within the next week," the Hawaii Democrat told CNN's Van Jones during an interview slated to air at 7 p.m. Saturday on CNN's "The Van Jones Show."

Gabbard, an Iraq War veteran, currently serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. She is the first American Samoan and the first Hindu member of Congress.

...
Rania Batrice, who was a deputy campaign manager for Bernie Sanders in 2016 and is now a top aide to Gabbard, will be the campaign manager, Batrice says.

She was a big supporter of Bernie Sanders back in 2016, and she may continue to support similar policies. She also wants a non-interventionist foreign policy, and she met Syrian president Bashar Assad in 2017, a move that caused some controversy.

Of other candidates, Julian Castro may announce soon.

Tulsi Gabbard is the Michele Bachman of the Democratic party, I have no clue why anybody likes her unless they hate gays and Palestinians

I can see why. Look at the positions she's taken:
She said the 2016 primaries didn't have enough debate
She criticized Obama for intervening in Syria

Only a complete idiot would take those positions.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71RsIycMD8U[/youtube]

 

[poster]

Tulsi Gabbard is the Michele Bachman of the Democratic party, I have no clue why anybody likes her unless they hate gays and Palestinians

I can see why. Look at the positions she's taken:
She said the 2016 primaries didn't have enough debate
She criticized Obama for intervening in Syria

Only a complete idiot would take those positions.

https://forward.com/news/israel/417...ns-on-gaza/?attribution=home-hero-item-text-2

 

[untermensche]

Tulsi Gabbard is the Michele Bachman of the Democratic party, I have no clue why anybody likes her unless they hate gays and Palestinians

I can see why. Look at the positions she's taken:
She said the 2016 primaries didn't have enough debate
She criticized Obama for intervening in Syria

Only a complete idiot would take those positions.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71RsIycMD8U[/youtube]

Good luck getting some Americans to vote for a Hindu.

The Republican spin machine will have many people believing Hindu is close to Satanism.

But her support of Sanders was right on.

Her opposition to gay marriage is the position of many Democrats not very long ago and something apparently she has changed.

 

[Elixir]

Not much chance that Tulsi is going to be a factor...
She IS unique. The left doesn't like her hawkishness, and right wingers shrivel and pucker at the very mention of her name because she's a girl, and a bigger badass than any of them ever dreamed of being. I don't think her "platform" holds together or has any consistency that would give her my buy-in. But she might serve well as a foil.

 

[Worldtraveller]

Not much chance that Tulsi is going to be a factor...
She IS unique. The left doesn't like her hawkishness, and right wingers shrivel and pucker at the very mention of her name because she's a girl, and a bigger badass than any of them ever dreamed of being. I don't think her "platform" holds together or has any consistency that would give her my buy-in. But she might serve well as a foil.

Hawkish? Wasn't she one of the few dems that actually voted against Iraq?

There are certainly plenty of good reasons to dislike her, on the left: Her homophobia for one; her apparent support for Assad is another.

 

[ZiprHead]

Her opposition to gay marriage is the position of many Democrats not very long ago and something apparently she has changed.

Hmm, I heard she changed her position on gay marriage in 2010, three years before Hillary.

ETA: Sorry, Unter. Misread that as not changed.