Democrats 2020

[Jason Harvestdancer]

It boggles my mind how anyone could think that a profit oriented medical insurance system would somehow cost LESS. Profit seeking health insurance companies don't make it somehow cheaper. *scratches head*

Moreover, when we're all in it together via univeral single payer, we gain reason to push other health programs and encourage healthy living for the whole community. Everything from fitness to pollution to preventative medicine becomes relevant in a way it just isn't in a "I've got mine" sort of system.

Well...

Profit seeking has brought down the prices in almost every industry, the few exceptions being those with heavy government involvement.

 

[southernhybrid]

I am really surprised at Kamala quitting now. She qualified for the 6th debate in her back yard. I'd think she would hold out at least until that home game, hoping for a 2nd wind. In any case, she is doing much better than a number of other candidates. I mean ¡Hulian! and Corey must be hurting for money even more than Kamala, and they are certainly doing worse in polls.

Maybe somebody (Bloomberg?) promised her the Veep slot if she quit now.

There have been rumors for days that her campaign was in total disarray, and her staff were leaving a sinking ship. I guess she realizes that at this point, she's fighting a losing battle. I guess some of the other candidates aren't ready to give up yet. I saw Julian Castro interviewed just yesterday. He sounded unreasonable and irrationally exuberant about his chances of becoming the nominee. Maybe he was just pretending, and will drop out soon, but there are plenty of others who aren't gaining any steam but are refusing to drop out. So, it's anybody's guess who will be next. Maybe they feel if they stay in, they might get a cabinet job if the Democratic nominee wins in the general. Who knows!

 

[Politesse]

These guessing games are pretty funny. I read an article yesterday about how black primary voters might help get Biden nominated. I showed it to a black friend of mine who believes that Biden is the best candidate. She really, really likes Biden and has no positive feelings for any of the other candidates.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/02/us/politics/2020-democratic-delegates.html

Southern states and urban areas to help him accrue the 1,990 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

It might work. That’s because an overwhelming majority of delegates are awarded from areas more racially diverse than Iowa and New Hampshire. If Mr. Biden retains his strength with black voters, he’d have a structural advantage in the nomination race that is greater than his uneven lead in national polls suggests.

Think of it this way: Candidates gain delegates based on voting in both states and districts, which are Congressional districts in all but a few places. While Iowa and New Hampshire may generate political momentum for a winner because they vote first, the two states award very few delegates. By contrast, a candidate who is popular in California, Texas and predominantly black districts in the South could pick up big shares of delegates.

A recent poll shows Mr. Biden at 44 percent among black voters in South Carolina, the early voting state with a majority-black Democratic electorate, and a historic harbinger for how the South will vote. The same poll had Mr. Biden’s next closest competitor, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, trailing him by more than 30 percentage points among black voters.

I really don't think anyone has a clue as to who will be the Democratic nominee. Some people aren't even paying attention yet, and won't until a few weeks before the primaries. Lots of people keep changing their minds and some can't decide who they might want. I'm not making any predictions.

There are a small percentage of black voters who aren't religious, but I don't see that as important. Every single black person I know personally has told me that they will vote for whoever becomes the nominee. I have one black friend who has changed her mind three times already. First she wanted Booker, then Biden and the last time I asked her, she was thinking of supporting Warren. If I see her tomorrow, I'll ask her who she supports this week. .

I'm baffled by the continued assumption that people vote according to their "bloc" at all. Correlation is not causation.

 

[southernhybrid]

These guessing games are pretty funny. I read an article yesterday about how black primary voters might help get Biden nominated. I showed it to a black friend of mine who believes that Biden is the best candidate. She really, really likes Biden and has no positive feelings for any of the other candidates.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/12/02/us/politics/2020-democratic-delegates.html

Southern states and urban areas to help him accrue the 1,990 delegates needed to clinch the nomination.

It might work. That’s because an overwhelming majority of delegates are awarded from areas more racially diverse than Iowa and New Hampshire. If Mr. Biden retains his strength with black voters, he’d have a structural advantage in the nomination race that is greater than his uneven lead in national polls suggests.

Think of it this way: Candidates gain delegates based on voting in both states and districts, which are Congressional districts in all but a few places. While Iowa and New Hampshire may generate political momentum for a winner because they vote first, the two states award very few delegates. By contrast, a candidate who is popular in California, Texas and predominantly black districts in the South could pick up big shares of delegates.

A recent poll shows Mr. Biden at 44 percent among black voters in South Carolina, the early voting state with a majority-black Democratic electorate, and a historic harbinger for how the South will vote. The same poll had Mr. Biden’s next closest competitor, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, trailing him by more than 30 percentage points among black voters.

I really don't think anyone has a clue as to who will be the Democratic nominee. Some people aren't even paying attention yet, and won't until a few weeks before the primaries. Lots of people keep changing their minds and some can't decide who they might want. I'm not making any predictions.

There are a small percentage of black voters who aren't religious, but I don't see that as important. Every single black person I know personally has told me that they will vote for whoever becomes the nominee. I have one black friend who has changed her mind three times already. First she wanted Booker, then Biden and the last time I asked her, she was thinking of supporting Warren. If I see her tomorrow, I'll ask her who she supports this week. .

I'm baffled by the continued assumption that people vote according to their "bloc" at all. Correlation is not causation.

Who said people all vote according to their bloc? All the article I posted said is that Biden is very popular among black voters, not that all black voters support Biden. He has the support of about 44% in SC. Nobody said anything about people voting as a bloc. That wasn't at all my interpretation of the article. Still, certain candidates are popular among certain groups. I read recently that most of Mayor Pete's supporters are white and over 65. Most of Sanders' supporters are younger. That doesn't imply that any of these groups are all planning on voting according to their bloc, It's just based on surveys among certain groups of people.

Maybe I'm not reading you right. My primary point is that nobody really knows what will be the result of the primaries, as so many people aren't sure who they will support. And, many keep changing their minds. Don't you agree with that?

I'm interested in seeing if Bloomberg gets any support. My sister in New Jersey likes him, but I don't think many people outside of New York metro do. Does that mean that all New York moderates want Bloomberg? No, I don't think so. I've seen quite few celebrities drooling over the possibility of a Bloomberg candidacy, but my friends are not a all attracted to him and neither am I. This is about the nuttiest, most confusing primary mess I've ever seen. Maybe I just have more time to pay attention to it, or maybe it's more worrisome considering all I really care about is getting rid of Trump. I don't know. None of the candidates really impress me and that's a bit disturbing, as I'm not the only one who feels that way. On the other hand, I've seen commenters in major news sources say that the Democrats have a large list of very attractive candidates. Perception obviously varies from person to person.

This is going to be a mess if nobody gets the needed number of delegates, isn't it?

 

[lpetrich]

This is going to be a mess if nobody gets the needed number of delegates, isn't it?

The superdelegates may then decide. If they don't give anyone a victory, then the convention will be a brokered one, a reversion to the days when party bosses in smoke-filled rooms chose candidates. Smoke-filled rooms? Nowadays it might be dry-ice "smoke".


Anand Giridharadas on Twitter: "At @KamalaHarris's lowest moments in the polls, she has outpolled @MikeBloomberg. That she is now out and he's just getting started tells you so much about how money, power, race, and gender work in America." / Twitter

Anand Giridharadas on Twitter: "@KamalaHarris @MikeBloomberg So don't tell me @MikeBloomberg is too rich to be corrupt. His candidacy incarnates the fundamental corruption at the heart of our political order." / Twitter

Douglas Emhoff on Twitter: "I’ve got you. As always. https://t.co/5OJDT3cDfw" / Twitter
Showing him, Kamala Harris's husband, hugging KH.

 

[Politesse]

I'm baffled by the continued assumption that people vote according to their "bloc" at all. Correlation is not causation.

Who said people all vote according to their bloc? All the article I posted said is that Biden is very popular among black voters, not that all black voters support Biden. He has the support of about 44% in SC. Nobody said anything about people voting as a bloc. That wasn't at all my interpretation of the article. Still, certain candidates are popular among certain groups. I read recently that most of Mayor Pete's supporters are white and over 65. Most of Sanders' supporters are younger. That doesn't imply that any of these groups are all planning on voting according to their bloc, It's just based on surveys among certain groups of people.

Maybe I'm not reading you right. My primary point is that nobody really knows what will be the result of the primaries, as so many people aren't sure who they will support. And, many keep changing their minds. Don't you agree with that?

I'm interested in seeing if Bloomberg gets any support. My sister in New Jersey likes him, but I don't think many people outside of New York metro do. Does that mean that all New York moderates want Bloomberg? No, I don't think so. I've seen quite few celebrities drooling over the possibility of a Bloomberg candidacy, but my friends are not a all attracted to him and neither am I. This is about the nuttiest, most confusing primary mess I've ever seen. Maybe I just have more time to pay attention to it, or maybe it's more worrisome considering all I really care about is getting rid of Trump. I don't know. None of the candidates really impress me and that's a bit disturbing, as I'm not the only one who feels that way. On the other hand, I've seen commenters in major news sources say that the Democrats have a large list of very attractive candidates. Perception obviously varies from person to person.

This is going to be a mess if nobody gets the needed number of delegates, isn't it?

I didn't think I was disagreeing with you.

As for Bloomberg, I'd be appalled. And it would be pretty embarrassing if the Democrats tried to put him on the stump, at the same time as trying to nail Trump on the emoluments clause.

 

[lpetrich]

I am suspending my campaign today - Kamala Harris - Medium

I’ve taken stock and looked at this from every angle, and over the last few days have come to one of the hardest decisions of my life.

My campaign for president simply doesn’t have the financial resources we need to continue.

I’m not a billionaire. I can’t fund my own campaign. And as the campaign has gone on, it’s become harder and harder to raise the money we need to compete.

In good faith, I can’t tell you, my supporters and volunteers, that I have a path forward if I don’t believe I do.

So, to you my supporters, it is with deep regret — but also with deep gratitude — that I am suspending my campaign today.

But she will keep fighting for a variety of causes: improved teacher pay, better gun control, blocking anti-abortion laws, paying attention to black women and people of color, ...

She then expressed gratitude to her husband, her family, her friends, her staffers, her campaign volunteers and her campaign workers who have sacrificed so much and done so much work on her behalf. "It has been the honor of my life to be your candidate. ... Let’s keep fighting for the America we believe in, an America free of injustice. An America that we know we can be unburdened by what has been."

 

[Politesse]

I am suspending my campaign today - Kamala Harris - Medium

I’ve taken stock and looked at this from every angle, and over the last few days have come to one of the hardest decisions of my life.

My campaign for president simply doesn’t have the financial resources we need to continue.

I’m not a billionaire. I can’t fund my own campaign. And as the campaign has gone on, it’s become harder and harder to raise the money we need to compete.

In good faith, I can’t tell you, my supporters and volunteers, that I have a path forward if I don’t believe I do.

So, to you my supporters, it is with deep regret — but also with deep gratitude — that I am suspending my campaign today.

But she will keep fighting for a variety of causes: improved teacher pay, better gun control, blocking anti-abortion laws, paying attention to black women and people of color, ...

She then expressed gratitude to her husband, her family, her friends, her staffers, her campaign volunteers and her campaign workers who have sacrificed so much and done so much work on her behalf. "It has been the honor of my life to be your candidate. ... Let’s keep fighting for the America we believe in, an America free of injustice. An America that we know we can be unburdened by what has been."

Only good news of the day. I wonder who will "get her voters"?

 

[lpetrich]

What Happened to Kamala Harris? - GEN - "Many of Harris’ wounds were self-inflicted, but her downfall also shows just how much Trump’s racism and sexism have influenced the 2020 playing field"

Harris was the only Black woman running for president, and the only person of color to qualify for the next debate (so far). Candidates who remain in the race include a mayor who won office with fewer than 10,000 votes, two billionaires who entered the race at the 11th hour, and a former congressman who launched his campaign in July 2017 but has never won significant support in the polls. All of them are white men.

It was a brave start.

“I stand before you today, clear-eyed about the fight ahead and what has to be done — with faith in God, with fidelity to country, and with the fighting spirit I got from my mother. I stand before you today to announce my candidacy for President of the United States,” she said at her campaign launch. “I’m running for president because I love my country. I love my country. I’m running to be president, of the people, by the people, and for all people.”

KH tried to give herself a policy identity between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren on her left, and Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg on her right, without much success. Then there was her record as a prosecutor and all the squabbling behind the scenes of her campaign.

But electability was a nagging worry.

The fear that a country that preferred Trump to Hillary Clinton is not close to being ready for a woman president, much less a woman of color president, plagued her campaign from early on.

 

[ZiprHead]

BURN!

 

[Horatio Parker]

I've paid only cursory attention to the Dem flock, but it seemed to me that Harris was trying to be all things to all people.

 

[lpetrich]

Why Kamala Harris’s Campaign Failed | FiveThirtyEight

The most plausible theories, in my view, were:

1. Democratic voters were not looking for an Obama-style candidate running more on charisma and personality than on policy.
2. Biden, Sanders and Warren were just strong rivals. In particular, Biden’s strength among black voters and Warren’s support among college-educated whites boxed Harris out among two groups she really needed.
3. Harris herself had not been an ideal candidate. At times, she struggled to explain her policy stances and her reasons for running for president.
4. And finally, Harris, as a woman of color (she is the daughter of Indian and Jamaican immigrants), faced extra high hurdles with a Democratic Party that’s focused on each candidate’s perceived ability to defeat President Trump. Many voters view nominating a woman as a risky bet in a general election.

Originally in What Happened To The Kamala Harris Campaign? | FiveThirtyEight

Author Perry Bacon Jr. still agrees, but he suspects some other factors also. He shows a graph of KH's polling: a burst when she started campaigning, and a burst after her first debate, followed by declines. Also, campaign-staff infighting.

"Maybe Harris just decided there was no path to victory, and that there was no reason to move forward."

He then speculates that maybe KH and Beto O'Rourke had gotten overhyped by the news media. Like KH as a "female Obama". That fits - KH and BO are both mixed-race and culturally black, for lack of a better word.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

The whole "she is a person of color" excuse is a cop out that I dearly hope Yang doesn't fall into when he fails to become the nominee, and I hope Warren doesn't hide behind the excuse of her gender. I don't think either will. I also doubt Booker will.

I agree that KH lost partly because she was overhyped, but mostly because she was weak on substance. She had little uniquely hers in way of policy positions, and Tulsi's drawing attention to KH's record as a prosecutor also didn't help.

 

[angelo]

Before I dropped my private health insurance, I was paying around $400AUD per month for two adults for basic hospital cover, which is a lot of money for someone living off an aged pension to pay. We have a universal public health system in Australia, paid for by a tax surcharge on salaries, which of course only covers a small percentage of the true cost of this black hole called " public health, or Medicare. "

You have it much better in upside-down land than we do in the US. The $600 I noted above is not unusual here. My brother-in-law pays that for his "employer provided" health insurance. He's a single man that just turned fifty.

What is, in your opinion, the true cost of your medicare system?

Not sure these are the latest estimates, but remember our population is approx 25 million, and as I said, up to 40% of the population also have private health cover.



NHE grew 3.9% to $3.5 trillion in 2017, or $10,739 per person, and accounted for 17.9% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Medicare spending grew 4.2% to $705.9 billion in 2017, or 20 percent of total NHE. Medicaid spending grew 2.9% to $581.9 billion in 2017, or 17 percent of total NHE.Apr 26, 2019
NHE Fact Sheet - Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
https://www.cms.gov › statistics-trends-and-reports › nationalhealthexpenddata

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think she mention reparations and that made the base scurry away. Also, her attack on race issues against Biden wasn't taken well.

 

[southernhybrid]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/04/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-votevets-endorsement.html

VoteVets, the political action committee that backs liberal veterans running for office, has endorsed Pete Buttigieg for president, the first major organization to support him.

The endorsement brings Mr. Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind., and a former Navy officer who served in Afghanistan, new defenders in a 2020 Democratic presidential contest that has seen better known candidates drop out as polling shows early-state voters coalescing around the four leading candidates.

Jon Soltz, the co-founder and chairman of VoteVets, said that other campaigns weren’t taking on Mr. Buttigieg directly but that they were using opposition research to try and “hold back his momentum.”

I also heard on MSNBC this morning that Bloomberg already has 5% of Dem supporters. I guess it's possible to buy your way into the presidency, if you're wealthy enough. I'm still very skeptical that he's going to get much support outside of the northeast, but this is such a weird election, I sure wouldn't want to predict what's going to happen. I'm not and have never been a Bloomberg supporter, but I'd take him over Trump any day. At least he's intelligent and has some experience in government. I wish he has just used his money to help some Senate candidates, but people like him apparently have huge egos and they believe they are the only ones who can save the country.

Our election process takes such a long time that it's difficult to win without raising lots of money. Somebody like Bloomberg doesn't have to raise money. All he has to do is write himself a check. Crazy!

 

[Harry Bosch]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/04/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-votevets-endorsement.html

VoteVets, the political action committee that backs liberal veterans running for office, has endorsed Pete Buttigieg for president, the first major organization to support him.

The endorsement brings Mr. Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind., and a former Navy officer who served in Afghanistan, new defenders in a 2020 Democratic presidential contest that has seen better known candidates drop out as polling shows early-state voters coalescing around the four leading candidates.

Jon Soltz, the co-founder and chairman of VoteVets, said that other campaigns weren’t taking on Mr. Buttigieg directly but that they were using opposition research to try and “hold back his momentum.”

I also heard on MSNBC this morning that Bloomberg already has 5% of Dem supporters. I guess it's possible to buy your way into the presidency, if you're wealthy enough. I'm still very skeptical that he's going to get much support outside of the northeast, but this is such a weird election, I sure wouldn't want to predict what's going to happen. I'm not and have never been a Bloomberg supporter, but I'd take him over Trump any day. At least he's intelligent and has some experience in government. I wish he has just used his money to help some Senate candidates, but people like him apparently have huge egos and they believe they are the only ones who can save the country.

Our election process takes such a long time that it's difficult to win without raising lots of money. Somebody like Bloomberg doesn't have to raise money. All he has to do is write himself a check. Crazy!

I think that people are just desperate for a person who can beat Trump. Bloomberg is going to get a serious look. Not due to his money. More due to the belief that he's in the middle, has common sense, is a good businessperson, and will stand up to Trump.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/04/us/politics/pete-buttigieg-votevets-endorsement.html

VoteVets, the political action committee that backs liberal veterans running for office, has endorsed Pete Buttigieg for president, the first major organization to support him.

The endorsement brings Mr. Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Ind., and a former Navy officer who served in Afghanistan, new defenders in a 2020 Democratic presidential contest that has seen better known candidates drop out as polling shows early-state voters coalescing around the four leading candidates.

Jon Soltz, the co-founder and chairman of VoteVets, said that other campaigns weren’t taking on Mr. Buttigieg directly but that they were using opposition research to try and “hold back his momentum.”

I also heard on MSNBC this morning that Bloomberg already has 5% of Dem supporters.

I thought it was funny how a big deal was being made by a right-wing AM radio propagandist that Bloomberg was ahead of Harris and several other Democrats yesterday. It wouldn't take much. Old rich white guy gains support of old white people... news at 11. 5% is still basement level numbers.

I guess it's possible to buy your way into the presidency, if you're wealthy enough.

Steyer hasn't had as much luck.

I'm still very skeptical that he's going to get much support outside of the northeast, but this is such a weird election, I sure wouldn't want to predict what's going to happen. I'm not and have never been a Bloomberg supporter, but I'd take him over Trump any day.

I think it comes down to where supporters move to. Warren and Sanders have compatible supporters. Biden and Bloomberg as likewise compatible. What we need is a hybrid between the two groups. Indeed, anyone is better than Trump. My concern (maybe better noted as disappointment?) with Bloomberg would be... is this the most liberal guy the Dems can elect in a general election? Clinton was a Centrist, Obama was a Centrist, Bloomberg is slightly right leaning Centrist. The Republicans keep shifting right (towards crazy?)... with a professional conservative in HW Bush, then a Neocon W Admin, followed by the maniacal Trump Admin.

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

The whole "she is a person of color" excuse is a cop out that I dearly hope Yang doesn't fall into when he fails to become the nominee, and I hope Warren doesn't hide behind the excuse of her gender. I don't think either will. I also doubt Booker will.

I agree that KH lost partly because she was overhyped, but mostly because she was weak on substance. She had little uniquely hers in way of policy positions, and Tulsi's drawing attention to KH's record as a prosecutor also didn't help.

Plus her status as a "person of color" should have helped her, not hurt her, because this is the Democratic primary and not the general election. If it hurt her in the primary, that says a lot about Democrats, not the general public.

 

[Politesse]

The whole "she is a person of color" excuse is a cop out that I dearly hope Yang doesn't fall into when he fails to become the nominee, and I hope Warren doesn't hide behind the excuse of her gender. I don't think either will. I also doubt Booker will.

I agree that KH lost partly because she was overhyped, but mostly because she was weak on substance. She had little uniquely hers in way of policy positions, and Tulsi's drawing attention to KH's record as a prosecutor also didn't help.

Plus her status as a "person of color" should have helped her, not hurt her, because this is the Democratic primary and not the general election. If it hurt her in the primary, that says a lot about Democrats, not the general public.

That the Democratic Party is horrifically racist is not a secret. They are just less racist than the Republicans, not setting some sort of ideal to aspire to.