To beat Trump, dems will need an incredibly charismatic leader who can bring a wide diverse group together to win. A democratic candidate will need around 56 or 58% of the popular vote to win. That's going to be a tall order. Trump already has a 40% base that is 100% committed to his cause and will vote. Someone on the far left isn't going to get it done.
Several things to unpack here.
1. The winner of the last election was an uncharismatic, polarizing, slovenly real estate mogul who came from outside the political establishment and tapped into a groundswell of dissatisfaction with the status quo. Never lose sight of that fact. The centrist, charismatic, qualified, accommodating Clinton (like the centrist, charismatic, qualified, accommodating Kerry) was unable to bring a wide enough group together to vote against a bloviating TV personality with no experience.
2. A lesson that everybody should take away from the above: nobody knows how the majority of people will vote, in either the primary or the general. Every prediction of what the people look for in a candidate, what makes them electable or viable, has about a coin-flip's chance of being accurate. Especially this early, and especially when so much could change in the country between now and the election (like, say, another economic downturn).
3. The "far left" in America, based on polls measuring public support for the policies they advocate (universal health care, more progressive taxation, comprehensive environmental reform, debt forgiveness, free public college, etc.) enjoys widespread support among likely Democratic voters. The majority of Americans are not happy with the fact that they live paycheck-to-paycheck while bankers and CEOs rake in record profits. The "far left" is the only contingent of Democrats that puts a spotlight on that and has ideas about how to fix it.
However, I think that in the end, you're probably right that Democratic voters will nominate someone who seems safe. For some reason, they all seem to think the Obama years were wonderful, and Biden reminds them of Obama. They don't care about his policies, they just want to correct the "aberration" that was Trump and get back to the previous levels of muted despair.
I repeat: Biden's supporters do not care about his policies. If Biden
reversed his positions on Medicare for All, action on climate change, corporate fundraising, credit card debt, or Strom Thurmond, he would lose zero of his base. Don't you think that's weird? If Bernie changed all his positions on the above, I would no longer support him. But it seems like Democratic primary voters aren't looking for the candidate that will fight for their interests; they want the one who they believe represents the preferences of the dumbest person they know, and that usually comes down to charisma, experience, and demographic appeal.
