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Democrats 2020

Cars can be retrofitted to use hydrogen... All hydrogen (or almost anything else) has to do is become less expensive than fossil fuels, and it could supplant them entirely. Weaning humans off fossil fuels could take centuries (assuming humans survive that long) or could come quite suddenly, if the right combination of breakthroughs were made. "Developing the political will" is bullshit IMO, and isn't going to alter the eventual outcome.
 
Cars can be retrofitted to use hydrogen...
Technically you could, but it's not a simple matter. If you want to use hydrogen, fuel cells are a better way to go.

All hydrogen (or almost anything else) has to do is become less expensive than fossil fuels, and it could supplant them entirely.
There are no sources of elemental hydrogen on Earth. As such, hydrogen is only an energy carrier, not a source. You need to put in more energy to make it than you get out when you reoxidize it. And it is difficult to store and transport because of its low boiling point and small molecule size.

Weaning humans off fossil fuels could take centuries (assuming humans survive that long) or could come quite suddenly, if the right combination of breakthroughs were made.
It will not happen "quite suddenly" no matter what because of the immense energy and transportation infrastructure that would need to be changed.
 
Indeed. In fact, if they go for solar, wind, etc., instead of nuclear, they're going to need natural gas for the night and for when there is too little wind (depending on the case), etc.

Yes. The irrational opposition to nuclear power by supposed environmentalists is infuriating. And excess nuclear power (when demand is low, for example at night) could be used to reduce carbon dioxide to carbon monoxide (which could be used to make synthetic jet fuel for example, as battery electric planes are not that practical).
 
As of a few years ago. Things will not change anytime soon. Besides, even if the whole planet went to 0 emissions by around 2030, it will not make one iota of difference to Earth's climate!

2000px-US_primary_energy_consumption_by_source.svg.png
 
As of a few years ago. Things will not change anytime soon. Besides, even if the whole planet went to 0 emissions by around 2030, it will not make one iota of difference to Earth's climate!

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Holy Crap! You're saying that carbon dixode in the atmosphere has no effect on the climate? If so, this would be quite revolutionary and against the scientific studies that I have seen. Where are you getting your information? Surely you must have a non-biased scientific study that demonstrates this?
 
There are no sources of elemental hydrogen on Earth. As such, hydrogen is only an energy carrier, not a source. You need to put in more energy to make it than you get out when you reoxidize it. And it is difficult to store and transport because of its low boiling point and small molecule size.

The first object isn't much of an issue. Solar-electric stations could hydrolize plenty, it's the storage and distribution that present a problem. Especially distribution. It could be addressed with a decentralized production system, but it's so much harder to wring profits out of such systems... there are people already trying to illegalize forms of energy independence.

My point was not to present a ready solution, but to remind you that if a solution comes, it might be sudden and revolutionary.
 
The first object isn't much of an issue.
But that makes a lot of difference.
Solar-electric stations could hydrolize plenty,
First of all, hydrolysis is splitting of complex molecules using water,(often catalyzed by acid), not splitting water. For example hydrolysis of proteins (or polypeptides) to make free amino acids. Or making inverted syrup by hydrolyzing sucrose. It is the opposite of a dehydration reaction.
The word you want is electrolysis of water, splitting using electrical current.
Yes, technically you could use solar electricity to generate free hydrogen, but you'd need a lot of solar panels for it, especially if you intend to burn the hydrogen in an already inherently inefficient internal combustion engine, and being even more inefficient if it burns fuel it was not originally designed for.

A better approach would be, again, to use nukes as waste heat can be used to electrolyse water with less electrical energy input. The CO made from reducing CO2 can be combined with the hydrogen to make synthetic,carbon neutral liquid fuels for applications where electric vehicles will remain impractical for a long time, such as airplanes.
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it's the storage and distribution that present a problem. Especially distribution.
As I've already mentioned.

It could be addressed with a decentralized production system, but it's so much harder to wring profits out of such systems... there are people already trying to illegalize forms of energy independence.
I do not think energy independence should be "illegalized", but at the same time I do not think people putting solar panels on their homes to generate hydrogen in electrolysers in their garages to compress it to 300-600 atm to fuel their retrofitted ICE car is the solution. But I am sure more and more people will put solar panels on their homes to supply their own electricity needs, including charging their electric cars.

My point was not to present a ready solution, but to remind you that if a solution comes, it might be sudden and revolutionary.
I doubt it. We have plenty of solutions. That is not the problem. The problem is implementing all the solutions in a huge economy with trillions of dollars worth of already existing infrastructure. Maybe the first step should be developing countries. They have less installed infrastructure, and should be pushed to deploy carbon-free solutions wherever feasible. That would be a good use of development moneys from the developed world.
 
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Bernie Sanders has gotten "woke"

Too bad. Despite being far too left on economics issues for me, he was refreshing in that he did not have much time for the identity politics/blame whitey so common on the Left.

Bernie Sanders includes Pamela Turner’s death in campaign video

Very disappointing. A cop (hispanic by the way, I wonder how other hispanics feel at this attempt to throw one of them under the #BLM bus) tried to arrest Pamela Turner for outstanding warrants, including for assault. She resisted arrest and at some point gained control of the officer's taser, which she used on him. So she was armed and violent. Based on this evidence, this was justified.

Bernie has lost one thing that elevated him from the pack.
 
Too bad. Despite being far too left on economics issues for me, he was refreshing in that he did not have much time for the identity politics/blame whitey so common on the Left.

Bernie Sanders includes Pamela Turner’s death in campaign video

Very disappointing. A cop (hispanic by the way, I wonder how other hispanics feel at this attempt to throw one of them under the #BLM bus) tried to arrest Pamela Turner for outstanding warrants, including for assault. She resisted arrest and at some point gained control of the officer's taser, which she used on him. So she was armed and violent. Based on this evidence, this was justified.

Bernie has lost one thing that elevated him from the pack.

Derec. Derec! I've been telling you for awhile now that Bernie is too far left to justify your support. But you had to learn the hard way! When are you going to listen to me?
 
Derec. Derec! I've been telling you for awhile now that Bernie is too far left to justify your support. But you had to learn the hard way! When are you going to listen to me?
I know, I know. I never really supported his leftist politics, but I did find him authentic and likable in 2016.
 
Derec. Derec! I've been telling you for awhile now that Bernie is too far left to justify your support. But you had to learn the hard way! When are you going to listen to me?
I know, I know. I never really supported his leftist politics, but I did find him authentic and likable in 2016.

What did you like about him, his free shit for everyone? Or the Robin Hood policies?
 
Derec. Derec! I've been telling you for awhile now that Bernie is too far left to justify your support. But you had to learn the hard way! When are you going to listen to me?
I know, I know. I never really supported his leftist politics, but I did find him authentic and likable in 2016.

What did you like about him, his free shit for everyone? Or the Robin Hood policies?

You mis-spelled Roosevelt.
 
I have found a rather odd sort of opinion poll. I have found mybookie.ag an online-bookie site that hosts bets on political contests in addition to the bulk of its business: bets on sports contests. It currently has bets on the 2020 US Presidential race. It uses American odds ( Sports betting section on outcome-odds conventions). Positive odds are how much one will get back in exchange for betting 100, while negative odds is how much one has to bet to get back 100.

Here are its odds for the Democrats:
  • Joe Biden: +220
  • Bernie Sanders: +320
  • Kamala Harris: +500
  • Beto O'Rourke: +500
  • Pete Buttigieg: +700
  • Amy Klobuchar: +800
  • Sherrod Brown: +1100
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +1200
  • Andrew Yang: +1200
  • Elizabeth Warren: +1600
  • Cory Booker: +1800
  • Hillary Clinton: +1800
  • Michelle Obama: +1800
  • Julian Castro: +2000
  • Kirsten Gillibrand: +2000
  • Oprah Winfrey: +2000
  • Michael Avenatti: +3500
  • Seth Moulton: +3500
  • John Hickenlooper: +4000
  • Terry McAuliffe: +4000
  • Martin O'Malley: +4000
  • Michael Bloomberg: +5000
  • George Clooney: +5000
  • Patrick DeVal: +5000
  • Mitch Landrieu: +5000
  • Jeff Merkely: +5000
  • Tim Ryan: +5000
  • Howard Schultz: +5000
  • Tom Steyer: +5000
  • Gavin Newsom: +5500
  • Eric Garcetti: +6500
  • Jerry Brown: +6600
  • Steve Bullock: +6600
  • Andrew Cuomo: +6600
  • Jay Nixon: +6600
  • Mark Zuckerberg: +6600
  • Tammy Duckworth: +8000
  • Chelsea Clinton: +10000
  • Tim Kaine: +10000
  • Al Franken: +30000
  • Marty Walsh
For the Republicans:
  • Donald Trump: -600
  • Mike Pence: +750
  • John Kasich: +1600
  • Ben Sasse: +1900
  • Nikki Haley: +2000
  • Mitt Romney: +2000
  • Payl Ryan: +2200
  • Tom Cotton: +4500
  • Ted Cruz: +4500
  • Ivanka Trump: +4500
  • Jeff Flake: +5000
  • Marco Rubio: +5500
  • Jeb Bush: +9000
  • Scott Walker: +9000
  • Evan McMullin: +15000
  • Jeff Abbott
  • Doug Ducie
  • Trey Gowdy
  • Bill Kristo
  • Mike Lee
  • Sarah Palin
  • Joe Scarborough
 
For both parties together:
  • Donald Trump: -150
  • Joe Biden: +450
  • Bernie Sanders: +450
  • (Any Other Candidate): +550
  • Kamala Harris: +1200
  • Elizabeth Warren: +1600
  • Pete Buttigieg: +2000
  • Amy Klobuchar: +2000
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +2500
  • Eric Garcetti: +2500
  • Mike Pence: +2500
  • Michael Bloomberg: +3000
  • Cory Booker: +3000
  • Kirsten Gillibrand: +3300
  • Hillary Clinton: +5000
  • Michelle Obama: +5000
  • Ben Shapiro: +5000
  • Rand Paul: +6600
  • Paul Ryan: +6600
  • Mitt Romney: +6600
  • Dwayne Johnson: +7500
  • Howard Schultz: +7500
  • Michael Avenatti: +10000
  • Steve Bannon: +10000
  • Ted Cruz: +10000
  • Bill de Blasio: +10000
  • Mark Cuban: +10000
  • Ivanka Trump: +10000
  • Chelsea Clinton: +20000
  • Mark Zuckerberg: +30000
  • Oscar de la Hoya: +40000
By party:
  • Republican: -170
  • Democratic: +150
  • Any other party: +5000
 
Calculated probabilities add up to more than 1 because the bookie site extracts a fraction of the bets, its house take or vig. This pushes down the odds, and thus pushes up the calculated probabilities.

Now for some "real" polls: RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
  • Biden: 34.7
  • Sanders: 17.7
  • Warren: 9.8
  • Harris: 8.0
  • Buttigieg: 6.2
  • O'Rourke: 3.7
  • Booker: 2.0
  • Klobuchar: 1.7
  • Castro: 1.3
  • Yang: 1.0
  • Gabbard: 0.8
  • Gillibrand: 0.7
  • Ryan: 0.5
  • de Blasio: 0.5
  • Moulton: 0.4
  • Williamson: 0.3
  • Bennet: 0.3
  • Delaney: 0.3
  • Bullock: 0.2
  • Inslee: 0.2
Joe Biden got a burst of 10% earlier this month, but it is now declining. It was mostly at the expense of Bernie Sanders. Kamala Harris did well at 12% in late February, but she has declined about 5% since then, with JB and BS gaining at her expense. Elizabeth Warren has slowly been rising.
 
I would strongly prefer either Warren or Harris over the two front runners. And I still think that Harris has a better chance over Warren. What may happen in the end is a Biden-Warren ticket, if he continues to gain traction. It's just that he has historically been a gaffe machine. Biden is more likely than the others to stumble seriously on his way to the nomination, but that may not matter to people who vote in the primaries.
 
Presidential Candidates: Who Is Running For President in 2020? : NPR about the 2020 Democrats. Currently, 23 are running and 2 are considering doing so.
  • Senators: MB, CB, KG, KH, AK, BS, EW
  • Representatives: JD, TG, SM, BOR, TR, ES
  • Obama Administration: JB, JC, (John Kerry)
  • State Officials: SB, JH, JI, (Stacey Abrams)
  • Mayors: PB, BdB, WM
  • Outsiders: MW, AW
Not Running: 14 people: Michael Avenatti, Mike Bloomberg, Sherrod Brown, Hillary Clinton, Eric Garcetti, Andrew Gillum, Eric Holder, Terry McAuliffe, Jeff Merkley, Chris Murphy, Richard Ojeda, Deval Patrick, Tom Steyer, Oprah Winfrey
 
Derec. Derec! I've been telling you for awhile now that Bernie is too far left to justify your support. But you had to learn the hard way! When are you going to listen to me?
I know, I know. I never really supported his leftist politics, but I did find him authentic and likable in 2016.

What did you like about him, his free shit for everyone? Or the Robin Hood policies?

I see the socialists are at it in Tennessee.
 
I would strongly prefer either Warren or Harris over the two front runners. And I still think that Harris has a better chance over Warren. What may happen in the end is a Biden-Warren ticket, if he continues to gain traction. It's just that he has historically been a gaffe machine. Biden is more likely than the others to stumble seriously on his way to the nomination, but that may not matter to people who vote in the primaries.

Yea, it's way way to early. If it does become Biden, I'd prefer that selects one of the younger charismatic candidates.
 
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