PyramidHead
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A Midsummer Overview Of The Democratic Field | FiveThirtyEight
Nate’s not-to-be-taken-too-seriously presidential tiers
For the Democratic nomination, as revised on July 10, 2019
- Tier 1: The front-runners
- Biden, Harris
- Warren
- Tier 2: They can win Iowa, but can they win the nomination?
- Sanders
- Buttigieg
- Tier 3: There’s potential, but these candidates are underachieving — for now
- Booker
- Klobuchar, Castro, O'Rourke
- Tier 4: These candidates are also running for some reason
- Inslee, Gillibrand
- Gabbard, Yang
- Everyone else
What We’ve Gleaned About The Democratic Primary From 6 Months Of Polls | FiveThirtyEight
A rather paradoxical result for Presidential campaigns over 1972-2016 is that lesser-known candidates have more chance of winning than better-known ones that poll the same. This is because the poll numbers partially reflect familiarity with the candidate. A little-known one tends to do better because the polled ones who are familiar with that candidate like that candidate better. The 538.com team then corrected poll numbers for familiarity, and the ones on top were the familiar ones: JB, BS, KH, EW, and PB.
Nate is so full of shit