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Do you think any aliens exist in the universe?

Maybe we will die due to some catastrophe - an asteroid strike, or the evolution of a unicellular species that drops the oxygen level below what we can survive, or that turns oceanic chloride into chlorine and gasses us to death, or a supervolcano eruption, or a global thermonuclear war, or the collapse of the ecosphere due to our burning of fossil fuels, or any of a million other scenarios that could kill us at a stroke.
But in basically all of those scenarios on Earth wouldn't people on Mars survive (if there were people on Mars)?
In basically all those scenarios, the earth after the catastrophe is still a more livable place than Mars will ever be. The worst case scenarios basically say "the air outside an hermetically sealed bunker becomes permanently unbreathable" - well, the air on Mars already is. An underground bunker city on Earth with sufficient supplies to last for several years - available at a tiny fraction of the cost of an underground colony on Mars, using tech available here and now - is a better place to hide out, and when we crawl back out after weeks, months or years, chances are Earth is still the better place to be.
 
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A colony on Mars would have to first be able to survive independently. Can such a colony survive? A good test before wasting billions to put them there to die would be to try to see if a colony could survive and prosper, isolated from support on Antarctica where living conditions are much, much more survivable.
Another test would just be to see what they need to import from Earth. And there is a difference between needing to import some important things from Earth or whether they are essential to survival...
 
A colony on Mars would have to first be able to survive independently. Can such a colony survive? A good test before wasting billions to put them there to die would be to try to see if a colony could survive and prosper, isolated from support on Antarctica where living conditions are much, much more survivable.
Another test would just be to see what they need to import from Earth. And there is a difference between needing to import some important things from Earth or whether they are essential to survival...
We pretty much know what the crew of about 150 on a nuclear submarine need to survive for several months. The idea of a colony is that they have to become self sufficient after their original supplies ran out. A colony would have to be able to grow their own food. An Antarctic colony would have much, much less problem surviving as they don't have to make their own oxygen, protect themselves from cosmic radiation, or find and purify water so such a colony would only be a minimal test.

Personally, I don't think an Antarctic colony could survive, much less prosper, for ten years without a hell of a lot of support. So if the idea of a Mars colony is as an insurance policy for humanity in case of a global disaster then it doesn't look like much of an insurance policy.
 
In basically all those scenarios, the earth after the catastrophe is still a more livable place than Mars will ever be.
Yeah it looks like it might not be possible for the foreseeable future to terraform Mars to be like Earth...
The worst case scenarios basically say "the air outside an hermetically sealed bunker becomes permanently unbreathable" - well, the air on Mars already is. An underground bunker city on Earth with sufficient supplies to last for several years - available at a tiny fraction of the cost of an underground colony on Mars, using tech available here and now - is a better place to hide out, and when we crawl back out after weeks, months or years, chances are Earth is still the better place to be.
Well it would be easy for people on Mars to go back to Earth (if they had reusable methane rockets)... and there might not be a city full of people underground Earth if they had no notice....
 
In basically all those scenarios, the earth after the catastrophe is still a more livable place than Mars will ever be.
Yeah it looks like it might not be possible for the foreseeable future to terraform Mars to be like Earth...
The worst case scenarios basically say "the air outside an hermetically sealed bunker becomes permanently unbreathable" - well, the air on Mars already is. An underground bunker city on Earth with sufficient supplies to last for several years - available at a tiny fraction of the cost of an underground colony on Mars, using tech available here and now - is a better place to hide out, and when we crawl back out after weeks, months or years, chances are Earth is still the better place to be.
Well it would be easy for people on Mars to go back to Earth (if they had reusable methane rockets)... and there might not be a city full of people underground Earth if they had no notice....
Having people take turns living in the underground cities just in case something real bad happens without prior notice is still orders of magnitude easier to implement than a self-sufficient colony on Mars.
 
We pretty much know what the crew of about 150 on a nuclear submarine need to survive for several months.
That's surprising - I would have expected only one or two dozen people.... I guess that's good practice for long term space travel where it takes about 9 months to travel to Mars....
 
There is no reason to create a colony in Antarctica that can survive independently from the rest of the Earth.
Sure there is. Antarctica has vast mineral wealth.

The problem is, you can’t get to it, because setting up a town there is basically impossible.

The Russians built a coal mining town (Pyramiden) in Svalbard back in the cold war; It has similar issues to Antarctica, but isn’t as remote. But it collapsed as soon as the cold war ended, because it was never viable economically. The USSR didn’t care, because they valued it for its propaganda as much as for its coal production.

Antarctica is even more remote than Svalbard, and is so economically unviable as a place to establish a mining colony that all the world’s nations agreed not to do so - allegedly to preserve the unique and pristine Antarctic environment, but as a card carrying cynic, I suspect it was because they all recognised that such an agreement did nothing to limit their plans (which were to leave it alone because it was too expensive to exploit), while simultaneously making them all look like noble and caring custodians of the planet (yeah, right).

If Antarctica could have been a viable site for a colony, it would have happened; There’s coal, oil, and untold wealth of minerals of all kinds there.

Again, Antarctica is just like Mars, but on ‘super easy’ mode. Mars has loads of mineral resources, and none of them will ever compete economically with the resources to be found in easy and friendly places on Earth, like the Australian outback, the Congo basin, the New Guinea highlands, none of which most westerners would choose to live in without very high rates of pay indeed.
 
There is no reason to create a colony in Antarctica that can survive independently from the rest of the Earth.
Sure there is. Antarctica has vast mineral wealth.
Surviving independently means never needing to import any food, etc.
Antarctica is even more remote than Svalbard, and is so economically unviable as a place to establish a mining colony that all the world’s nations agreed not to do so - allegedly to preserve the unique and pristine Antarctic environment, but as a card carrying cynic, I suspect it was because they all recognised that such an agreement did nothing to limit their plans (which were to leave it alone because it was too expensive to exploit), while simultaneously making them all look like noble and caring custodians of the planet (yeah, right).
Though flat earthers would say the reason is to hide the proof that there is an ice wall at the ends of the earth.... which is a kind of pseudo-science....
 
Macmurdo Station, Antarctica. The isolatedwintering crews has been studied by NASA.

The Mole People can be hired to tunnel Mars. President John Quincey Adams beloved an early 19th century pseudoscience claiming the Erath was hollow and inhabited by mole people. Apparently he even allocated money for trade negotiations. There was someone promoting the idea and had a following.


John Quincy Adams, the sixth President of the United States, was a top student at Harvard, one of America’s greatest diplomats, and successfully defended mutineers aboard the slave ship La Amistad as freemen in 1841. He also believed that the Earth was hollow and filled with other, potentially inhabited subterranean worlds.


During his presidency (1825-29), he said yes to funding a real-life journey to the center of the Earth to uncover what lies beneath our planet’s outer shell and find the mole people that dwell there. Adams may have been a believer in the hollow Earth theory, the idea that the Earth is completely hollow, containing more hollow shells, each with their own atmospheres. Think Russian dolls on a planetary scale.

I read Heinlein's Moon Is A Harsh Mistress when I was a kid. Great story, for a kid. I stopped reading scifi in the 80s.
 
Stating what I think is the obvious. Why should we think transferring human civilization to Mars will end up any differently than how we are on Earth? Irrational, combative, and competitive. The limited environment would only amplify it.

China, Russia, and the USA-west establish Mars colonies. Competition over territory and resources ensue.
 
With regard to the question posed by the OP, my personal belief is that the existence of life elsewhere in the universe is likely. The constituent materials for life as we know it appear to be present throughout the observable universe. While the conditions for life (as we know it or otherwise) may be restrictive, the sheer volume of possible places that we can already observe seems to provide ample opportunity. If the universe is infinite in extent and homogenous (at least to a certain degree) in terms of the distribution of matter, it is certain that other life exists. In such a universe this very conversation is happening elsewhere. Whether or not any two instances of intelligent life are in close enough proximity to know about each other or communicate is a different story.

As a believer in the video game explanation my explanation for the apparent absence of aliens is to keep the costs of the video game low. I mean if you're looking at a typical distant star that apparently involves 10^57 atoms it can be approximated to us viewing it a lot more cheaply than if it had a Matrioshka brain attached or some nearby civilizations even though it might involve less than double the apparent atoms of the star on its own.

It is related to how likely evolution is. Either it is highly unlikely meaning that it rarely happens (e.g. once in the universe or our galaxy) or it is quite likely.... (or in-between)

My belief is that our simulation only started relatively recently and a virtual evolutionary history is worked out later on e.g.

You (excreationist) and I have had some back-and-forth about simulations previously and, while we didn't get much closer to a consensus I think it's worth touching on a few things again since you started a new thread retreading some of what we've discussed before.

Ignoring my arguments against even entertaining the idea of our being in a simulation, I'd like to comment on computational complexity and cost thereof. Since we and the rest of the universe would be simulated, there are many shortcuts that a programmer or creator of a simulation can take to reduce computational costs. It would be very simple, for instance, to make the world much like it is described in biblical accounts, where there is just a dome above us and nothing outside of it. It would be equally simple to make it so we do not or cannot even consider what is out there. The programmer would be all-powerful, right?

Why would a programmer have to worry about what the beings inside a simulation think at all? Even if we imagine that one goal of the simulation is to have the simulated beings inside believe that their world is real, that's trivial to do, so why would they shoot themselves in the foot by including things that are difficult to simulate? Just make the world as simple as you want or make people automatically believe what you want. It would be really, really silly of a creator, who has total control of the entire universe, to make things difficult for themselves unless they are grinding for achievements.

This makes me wonder if part of your belief is that we are not ourselves part of the simulation but rather inserted into it (a la The Matrix). Do you think we are simulated or is it just the world around us that you believe is simulated?
 
There is no reason to create a colony in Antarctica that can survive independently from the rest of the Earth. The reason for Mars is to survive a catastrophe on Earth - that is what Elon Musk says as well. You have listed many possible catastrophes that could wipe out all people on Earth. Do you think it would be good to have a backup plan so that people could survive those catastrophes on Earth you listed?
The only way to make Mars work would be to develop an atmosphere. But atmospheres don't just happen, they require a lot of gas, and something to stop solar winds from bleeding them away. Otherwise, what benefit does living on Mars provide from being on a spaceship, other than gravity? Any planet based catastrophe would preclude any evacuation from the planet of size large enough to save enough people anyway.
 
... it's entirely plausible that every such species is quite smart enough to know when to say enough is enough. Think of it as the Cosmic Peter Principle -- the secret to happiness is to avoid the disastrous final promotion to a position for which you're incompetent. ...
But everyone believes this? Nobody wants to explore the frontiers? That's never happened in history, why should we expect it to happen now?
The hypothesis isn't that everyone believes it; it's that every species has responsible parties who know how dangerous it is to the majority who necessarily will be staying behind. Think of excessive expansion as a machine gun. Sure, there will always be people who want one, but is there any country where private ownership of a machine gun isn't illegal?
 
Is Mars gravity high enough to keep am atmosphere?
 
Is Mars gravity high enough to keep am atmosphere?
Titan's is. Now, Mars is off course more exposed to solar winds, so it may dissipate faster. That's not going to be terrible problem for the first few hundred thousand years. If we are planning longer term, we'll have to keep crashing a medium sized comet into the surface every so often to make up for the losses, while trying not to kill everything in an already marginal ecosystem. That's the easy part though. The hard part is getting started.

There isn't enough volatile elements around to form one in the first place. Bringing a few petatons of volatile materials to its surface is a challenge of quite another magnitude than bringing a few kilotons of human flesh. And, dare I say it, we're unable to do even the easy job.
 
As to the Fermi paradox, I've seen numerous solutions. Solutions like
  • ET's don't exist, and thus we are alone in the observable Universe
    • ET's cannot exist
    • ET's are super rare
    • ET's are potentially common, but we are the first
  • ET's exist, but they are so rare that they are too far away for communication or travel
  • ET's are common, but they don't have much interest in communicating with us or traveling to us
  • ET's are common, but they know about us, and they have kept themselves hidden from us - the zoo hypothesis
  • ET's are common, and evidence of them is all around us, but we are unable to recognize that evidence.
 
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Ignoring my arguments against even entertaining the idea of our being in a simulation, I'd like to comment on computational complexity and cost thereof. Since we and the rest of the universe would be simulated, there are many shortcuts that a programmer or creator of a simulation can take to reduce computational costs. It would be very simple, for instance, to make the world much like it is described in biblical accounts, where there is just a dome above us and nothing outside of it.
As far as short-cuts go, it could just approximate the 10^57 atoms in our Sun and similar stars depending how closely we're observing them. It could use "machine learning" e.g.
(you could reply in that thread about the machine learning topics)
I think a goal of our simulation is to appear to be solely based on physical laws but perhaps have a non-obvious "God" interacting with it
why would they shoot themselves in the foot by including things that are difficult to simulate?
I think it is meant to be indistinguishable from base reality and if it involved things that couldn't have naturally emerged then people would know that the world was intelligently created (i.e. not base reality).... as far as being difficult to simulate goes check out that AI thread
Do you think we are simulated or is it just the world around us that you believe is simulated?
I think I might have an existence outside of a simulation but ultimately be simulated.
 
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Complicated problems can often be solved by breaking them down into simpler ones, and astronomer Frank Drake did so with the problem of communicative ET civilizations, thus giving us his famous equation:

N = Rs * fp * ne * fl * fi * fc * L

  • N = number of communicative civilizations in our Galaxy (or some region)
  • Rs = rate of star formation
  • fp = fraction of stars with planets
  • ne = number of Earthlike planets
  • fl = fraction where life emerges
  • fi = fraction where intelligence emerges
  • fc = fraction that can communicate over interstellar space
  • L = lifetime of communicators

When FD proposed his equation back in in 1961, we only had a good handle on Rs. But with numerous discoveries of exoplanets, we now have a good handle on fp and we have something of an idea of ne.

fp ~ 1

ne is surprisingly iffy. Before the discoveries of exoplanets, the Solar System looked like what one might expect a planetary system to look like, but many exoplanetary systems depart very strongly from the Solar System, and we don't have much of a clue about how typical -- or atypical -- the Solar System is.
 
Is Mars gravity high enough to keep am atmosphere?
Titan's is. Now, Mars is off course more exposed to solar winds, so it may dissipate faster. That's not going to be terrible problem for the first few hundred thousand years. If we are planning longer term, we'll have to keep crashing a medium sized comet into the surface every so often to make up for the losses, while trying not to kill everything in an already marginal ecosystem. That's the easy part though. The hard part is getting started.

There isn't enough volatile elements around to form one in the first place. Bringing a few petatons of volatile materials to its surface is a challenge of quite another magnitude than bringing a few kilotons of human flesh. And, dare I say it, we're unable to do even the easy job.
Although Titan's surface gravity is about 1/3 that of Mars, Titan's temperature is about -290F while Mars' temperature is about -80F. The much lower temperature of Titan means that the atmospheric molecules have little chance of gaining enough kinetic energy to escape even from the lower gravity. If Mars were terraformed by increasing atmosphere and raising temperature to a more comfortable +20F then the higher temperature would mean that the atmosphere would escape more rapidly because of the higher kinetic energy of the atmospheric molecules.
 
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