Electric cars taking over the world?

[DrZoidberg]

I've read a lot recently about the doom of petrol cars. And that in 10 years all sold cars will be electric.

I have a simple question. Will they?

Are we anywhere near that point? Teslas are cool, but not cheap. What ranges is reasonable. I'm getting hype vibes about the new electric revolution. What does the science say?

 

[Sarpedon]

10 years seems optimistic. Many manufacturers are saying all cars they make will be 'electrified' (a term that often includes hybrids and mild hybrids) in 20 years.

Since you live in Sweden, I believe that Volvo/(Geely) and Saab are both being more aggressive, so you might see things happening quicker. I think that Ford, GM and Chrysler here in the USA are not being so aggressive.

 

[barbos]

It all depends on batteries (their cost mainly) and nothing else.

 

[DrZoidberg]

10 years seems optimistic. Many manufacturers are saying all cars they make will be 'electrified' (a term that often includes hybrids and mild hybrids) in 20 years.

Since you live in Sweden, I believe that Volvo/(Geely) and Saab are both being more aggressive, so you might see things happening quicker. I think that Ford, GM and Chrysler here in the USA are not being so aggressive.

In these parts it's already easy to find parking where you also can load the batteries. There's just coming more and more of them.

Yup, Volvo is being really aggressive. The main selling point is that electric cars are a hell of a lot cheaper to service. That matters. So even with the higher price tag today, over time it's a good deal. But that's in money. Not so convinced overall.

 

[JohnG]

I would imagine that 3rd world countries coming online in the future will(should) build infrastructure that supports the long view. Probably the biggest thing holding the first world back is the old infrastructure for fossil fuel burning cars. Things like car factories, parts suppliers, gas stations, oil industry infrastructure, and of course politics.

I understand China is moving towards 100% electric and India as well. I have to check that though.

 

[funinspace]

It all depends on batteries (their cost mainly) and nothing else.

Yup! A secondary factor in the adoption of electric single unit vehicles will be the emergence of driver-less cars. It will be interesting to see how the advent of small robotic cabs scurrying around ferrying people about will change how we live, especially in the American sprawl.

Ironically, I think that the Tesla range effort is over the top (even though they are cool cars), as most people don't need a range beyond 100-120 miles. A simple gas generator with a modest tank could easily help push the range to those longer trips.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

The meteor HOS-132 chimed in on this topic to say that the question of what will happen on Earth in 10 years is an extremely moot point.

 

[JohnG]

It all depends on batteries (their cost mainly) and nothing else.

Yup! A secondary factor in the adoption of electric single unit vehicles will be the emergence of driver-less cars. It will be interesting to see how the advent of small robotic cabs scurrying around ferrying people about will change how we live, especially in the American sprawl.

Ironically, I think that the Tesla range effort is over the top (even though they are cool cars), as most people don't need a range beyond 100-120 miles. A simple gas generator with a modest tank could easily help push the range to those longer trips.

Yes - Electric & driverless. It does seem to be moving in that direction.

BTW - I googled HOS-132. It seems to be a hose clamp on a circular saw. But it's an evil hose clamp...

 

[Tom Sawyer]

What? Dickhead told me he was a meteor.

Fucking hose clamps

 

[Tigers!]

I am wondering how will transport i.e. 1,2, 5, 10 tonne type trucks be replaced by electric? Its one thing to replace passenger vehicles.

What are the thoughts on trucks? The weight would greatly reduce range.

 

[Juma]

I am wondering how will transport i.e. 1,2, 5, 10 tonne type trucks be replaced by electric? Its one thing to replace passenger vehicles.

What are the thoughts on trucks? The weight would greatly reduce range.

Range is just a matter of bringing more batteries.

 

[Derec]

I've read a lot recently about the doom of petrol cars. And that in 10 years all sold cars will be electric.

I have a simple question. Will they?

Are we anywhere near that point? Teslas are cool, but not cheap. What ranges is reasonable. I'm getting hype vibes about the new electric revolution. What does the science say?

Way too optimistic. I know several countries are trying to ban sales of new ICE cars after a certain year, but I think they will have to relax that.

Another note on electric cars and Sweden. Sweden is cold. ICE powered cars get heat for "free" but in electric cars you have to draw precious current from the battery to heat your car. And since Li-ion batteries do not work well at low temperatures, there is the issue of energy used just to heat the batteries.

 

[fromderinside]

You presented what seemed a good argument about the effect of cold climates until I read the following analysis.
Google Scholar search of Research Review of Electric Vehicles: 2017 International Conference on Mechanical Engineering and Control Automation (ICMECA 2017) suggests electrics compare very well in low temps compared to ICE as shown in table 2. (its a personal pdf article for each who completes scholar search for the article.)

 

[bilby]

I suspect that it will ultimately be cheaper, easier, and more effective to prevent the combustion of fossil fuels by simply manufacturing gasoline (or other liquid fuels) from non-fossil sources.

That might mean using such things as bio-ethanol for cars and light vehicles, and vegetable oil based diesel fuels for trucks (The first diesel engines ran on peanut oil, and there is very little technical benefit to using mineral diesel instead* - it's done because it's cheaper; Electric trucks are even less likely to come to pass than widespread adoption of electric cars).

More likely, IMO, light cars will run on synthetic octane, made using hydrocarbons, alcohols, CO₂, or a combination of these, in plants powered using non-fossil fuel derived electricity.

It's just easier to store the electrical energy from the grid in the form of a liquid fuel that is compatible with existing internal combustion engines, than it is to develop batteries that can be safely recharged fast enough to compete with pumping gas.

Of course, either possibility is only worth bothering with if the grid power is generated without the combustion of coal, oil or gas.












*In fact there are some significant benefits to use of vegetable, rather than mineral, oil for fuel in diesel engines, not least the lower levels of sulfur in vegetable oils.

 

[fromderinside]

Surely if we continue development of nuclear, solar, wind, wave, electric, fuel cell, etc. technologies we can, if we are determined to do it, construct roadway grids to support electric vehicles in an overall Environmentally friendly infrastructure. In particular I'm interested in electromagnetic highway technology. Thoughts?

 

[DrZoidberg]

I would imagine that 3rd world countries coming online in the future will(should) build infrastructure that supports the long view. Probably the biggest thing holding the first world back is the old infrastructure for fossil fuel burning cars. Things like car factories, parts suppliers, gas stations, oil industry infrastructure, and of course politics.

I understand China is moving towards 100% electric and India as well. I have to check that though.

For India and China I think it's primarily to keep smog down. Both countries are dealing with a lot of medical problems because of it. The Indian government has always had a paternal attitude towards the people. Which means promoting healthy behaviours. And China is communist. So problems facing the people is problems facing the government. If electric makes more economic sense, these two countries will switch directions on a dime.

I think it's just a result of their types of government. Electric cars is also something that benefits from high population density. The infrastructure to support it is higher investment. Both the countries certainly have that.

I don't think the infrastructure is a problem for Europe. It's always been more socialist than USA. Socialism is great for creating good infrastructure. I don't think it's a problem.

 

[barbos]

I suspect that it will ultimately be cheaper, easier, and more effective to prevent the combustion of fossil fuels by simply manufacturing gasoline (or other liquid fuels) from non-fossil sources.

That might mean using such things as bio-ethanol for cars and light vehicles, and vegetable oil based diesel fuels for trucks

I wish people stopped with this bio-fuel bullshit. It's not only not cheaper it's criminal to use land to grow fuel instead of food.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I am wondering how will transport i.e. 1,2, 5, 10 tonne type trucks be replaced by electric? Its one thing to replace passenger vehicles.

What are the thoughts on trucks? The weight would greatly reduce range.

Not a problem. We'll just get a pony express type situation. The pony express used a system where messages were sent via relay or the rider would switch horses along the way. Trucking companies are already organised like it today. Trailers can easily be switched between lorries. I think it would be a minor adjustment to adapt to electric.

It's all a question of money. If going electric is cheaper it'll happen.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I've read a lot recently about the doom of petrol cars. And that in 10 years all sold cars will be electric.

I have a simple question. Will they?

Are we anywhere near that point? Teslas are cool, but not cheap. What ranges is reasonable. I'm getting hype vibes about the new electric revolution. What does the science say?

Way too optimistic. I know several countries are trying to ban sales of new ICE cars after a certain year, but I think they will have to relax that.

Another note on electric cars and Sweden. Sweden is cold. ICE powered cars get heat for "free" but in electric cars you have to draw precious current from the battery to heat your car. And since Li-ion batteries do not work well at low temperatures, there is the issue of energy used just to heat the batteries.

Tesla is already big in all of Scandinavia. So it's obviously not a problem.

Petrol cars also don't work well when the engine is cold. So the way we've solved this is that we have battery powered engine heaters. That heats up the engine prior to use. We've had this for half a century now. If we can do it for petrol engines, we can do this for electrics. I think this is a non-problem.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I suspect that it will ultimately be cheaper, easier, and more effective to prevent the combustion of fossil fuels by simply manufacturing gasoline (or other liquid fuels) from non-fossil sources.

That might mean using such things as bio-ethanol for cars and light vehicles, and vegetable oil based diesel fuels for trucks (The first diesel engines ran on peanut oil, and there is very little technical benefit to using mineral diesel instead* - it's done because it's cheaper; Electric trucks are even less likely to come to pass than widespread adoption of electric cars).

More likely, IMO, light cars will run on synthetic octane, made using hydrocarbons, alcohols, CO₂, or a combination of these, in plants powered using non-fossil fuel derived electricity.

It's just easier to store the electrical energy from the grid in the form of a liquid fuel that is compatible with existing internal combustion engines, than it is to develop batteries that can be safely recharged fast enough to compete with pumping gas.

Of course, either possibility is only worth bothering with if the grid power is generated without the combustion of coal, oil or gas.












*In fact there are some significant benefits to use of vegetable, rather than mineral, oil for fuel in diesel engines, not least the lower levels of sulfur in vegetable oils.

It's just a question of money. Bio-fuel is still way more expensive than oil. We still have loads of easily accessible oil. As long as we have that situation bio-fuel is dead in the water. Bio-fuel was only hot technology until an American figured out how to do fracking. Now, not so hot.