DrZoidberg
Contributor
Messages from untrustworthy, unreliable sources are completely worthless.^^ Sometimes the source is less important than the message!
You only give the Daily Fail credit because they support your prejudices.
Oh for the love of god!
Let me Google Östersund sex attacks for you...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-Swedish-town-after-spate-of-sex-attacks.html
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/women-sweden-warned-not-go-7521297
http://www.thelocal.se/20160308/backlash-begins-after-swedish-women-told-not-to-go-out-alone
Let's unpack this.
1) Sometimes rapes take place.
2) An extremely rare subset of these are women getting jumped outdoors by unknown perpetrators.
3) Serial rapists jumping women outdoors we don't even have one a decade in Sweden.
3) The description of the perpetrator is Middle-Eastern.
It could be one of the refugees. But doesn't have to be. There's no connection to the recent refugee crisis.
The extreme rarity of this type of rape makes it pointless to do a statistical analysis. In order for it to be any point to make predictions based on statistics you need a population of events. We don't have enough. Serial rapists who jump women outdoors, like this... this is the first one I've heard of in Sweden that isn't ethnically Swedish. But again, it's such a rare event that it's impossible to deduce anything from it.
Racists in Sweden have from this single rapist concluded that all refugees rape women somehow, or something along those lines. That's why they're going nuts and why this is news.
What events like this demonstrate is how extraordinary safe Sweden is compared to most other countries.
Again it's statistics. If you drive in 100,000 British football supporters the amount of bar fights will increase somewhat though slightly.
If you drive in more migrants the amount of crime will increase somewhat though slightly.
I think you're still struggling to grasp how statistics work. You need a population of events to start calculating odds. Earthquakes is a good example. We don't have enough of them to be able to make reliable calculations on when the next one is going to be. So no, we don't actually know that the 1 131 (yes, I looked it up *) will drive up violent rapes by an unknown attacker. Oh, look... Wikipedia delivers. I can stop trying to explain how this works. Just read the article.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_events
* http://www.lansstyrelsen.se/jamtlan...lle/integration/Pages/Flyktingmottagning.aspx