There was a study in Austria a couple years back. I can't seem to dig it up at the moment, but it's referenced
here - 1.9 children per woman of Turkish background in Austria, with the numbers somewhat higher for Turkish citizens, already below two for Turkish-born naturalised citizens, and indistinguishable from other Austrians for Austrian-born women with a Turkish background. The 2.3 children referenced
here is only for Turkish citizens.
Even if it is true that birth and total fertility rate drops for Turkish women and gets close to that of native Europeans, the time it takes for that equalization still means an increase in Muslim percentage even without new migration. But there is new mass migration. Merkel let in a million unvetted Muslim mass migrants into Germany alone in 2015 alone. And >100,000 mass migrants are still flooding into Europe per year. And those tend to be from very high birth rate parts of the Muslim world - Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia etc.
Second, on every continent Muslim women have more children than non-Muslim ones, regardless whether it is a low-birth rate continent or a high-birth rate one.
Third, Erdogan ordered Turkish women in Europe to have five children each. Even if a minority of Turkish women heeds that, I expect an increase in TFR for Turkish women in Europe going forward.
Erdogan calls on Turkish families in Europe to have five children to protect against 'injustices'
After all, many Turks living in Europe support Erdogan. See, for example
here.
No, you were talking about Muslims, that's the exact word you used.
Well Muslims in general have higher birth rates than non-Muslims wherever they are, except possibly Middle East.
But most dangerous are very high-birth rate Muslims, and Afghans are both high-birth rate and many Muslim mass migrants come from there.
There's about three million people with a background from Turkey and a quarter million Afghans in Germany, so when talking about Muslims, that's a priori mostly Turks and Kurds, and the average of all Muslims is going to be influenced more by the average Turkish or Kurdish woman than by the average Afghan woman.
Well, with close to 5 children per Afghan women and with continued mass migration from Afghanistan (for economic purposes, the asylum claims are bogus), Afghans will increase their numbers quickly. There is no indication mass migration of Afghans will cease anytime soon. It is a common gambit of many Afghan families to send a son to Europe to send money back.
Afghan women in Afghanistan have a TFR around 4.5 (and falling rapidly).
Falling rapidly? Really?
And according to
this, it is 5.12.
CIA World Factbook also has net migration rate of -0.9%. That means that at least 300,000 Afghans are leaving each year. Where do you think most of them are heading? It's not Japan or China, that's for sure, because those countries actually protect their borders and enforce immigration laws.
Note that Pew survey says that 97% of Afghans support Sharia Law, but islamophilic Left doesn't care when they invite them to Europe with no vetting (so that even people with serious criminal records in Greece are welcomed in Germany) in large quantities.
Afghan women in exile - not so much.
Citation needed.
We've been through this I believe on the first ten pages of this thread. We have longtitudinal data for what happens when Afghans settle in large numbers in a society with different demographic characteristics, and those data show that their fertility rates converge with that of society at large - in Iran,
second generation Afghan immigrant women have fertility rates very close to those Iranian women (almost indistinguishable after correcting for socio-economic factors).
Even if this were the case, and I doubt it very much, you still have one generation of incredibly high birth rates. Which means that any Afghan migrants you take in will at least double in numbers within a generation. And note that more mass migrants keep coming and they are obviously still in the "more than 5 children per woman" mode, so the whole thing repeats.
Note also the impact of parallel societies. When the number of migrants from a particular culture is low, they tend to assimilate and adopt their host culture's way of life, including TFR. But when there is mass migration the migrants are numerous enough they can create a parallel society where there is no pressure to assimilate or change things like how many children you have. Especially when benefits are much more generous when you have a lot of children (see that Afghan family with 9 children that receives more than 5k Euros per month of benefits from Austria).
I do not think you can extrapolate from normal levels of migration to mass migration we are seeing now.
So many are coming en masse and they double their numbers within a generation.
No, they don't as per above.
Wrong. Even if your claim was correct (and I do not think it is, at least not for mass migration), the first generation is still in the high TFR mode and thus you still get at least the initial doubling.
