Houthis turn pirate

[ZiprHead]

Exclusive: China presses Iran to rein in Houthi attacks in Red Sea, sources say | Reuters

"Basically, China says: 'If our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint'," said one Iranian official briefed on the talks, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.

The attacks, which the Houthis say are in support of Palestinians in Gaza, have raised the cost of shipping and insurance by disrupting a key trade route between Asia and Europe used widely by ships from China.

The Chinese officials, however, did not make any specific comments or threats about how Beijing's trading relationship with Iran could be affected if its interests were damaged by Houthi attacks, the four Iranian sources said.

Instead of going through the Red Sea to get to Europe, ships now have to go all the way around Africa, meaning a longer trip.

I think that this could help improve relations between the US and Iran, because both nations have an obstreperous-ally problem, and the nations' officials could commiserate about that.

If it were up to Derec, the Chinese request would have come too late. If he were in charge the war would already have started.

 

[laughing dog]

To be fair, I am fine with China stepping up and taking out the Houthis.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Exclusive: China presses Iran to rein in Houthi attacks in Red Sea, sources say | Reuters

"Basically, China says: 'If our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint'," said one Iranian official briefed on the talks, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.

The attacks, which the Houthis say are in support of Palestinians in Gaza, have raised the cost of shipping and insurance by disrupting a key trade route between Asia and Europe used widely by ships from China.

The Chinese officials, however, did not make any specific comments or threats about how Beijing's trading relationship with Iran could be affected if its interests were damaged by Houthi attacks, the four Iranian sources said.

Instead of going through the Red Sea to get to Europe, ships now have to go all the way around Africa, meaning a longer trip.

I think that this could help improve relations between the US and Iran, because both nations have an obstreperous-ally problem, and the nations' officials could commiserate about that.

"China prefers to free-ride on the U.S. safeguarding freedom of navigation in the Red Sea by bloodying the Houthis' nose," said Vaez

Of course they do. And this is where the Biden administration should make change. The US Navy maintaining freedom of navigation is nothing written in stone. I believe it is Navy policy and nothing more. To what degree the cost of shipping route changes affect the US and its western allies versus how it affects China's shipping/economy should be a weighting factor.

On the Iran issue, Biden might consider hitting Iran economically rather than militarily. That is, striking Iranian economic targets such as their oil infrastructure. A limited US military strike on Iranian oil infrastructure would hurt Iran immediately and perhaps lastingly by putting a pause on Chinese investment within Iran.

But all the military tit for tat has done little over the years. If Biden strikes Iran's military in some small way it will just be more of the same.


Of course we could always begin to unwind our wrong-headed support for Israel. That's something we've never tried. As it stands now, it looks like we might be headed for having to decide to support Israel in a war against Lebanon too.

 

[bilby]

"China prefers to free-ride on the U.S. safeguarding freedom of navigation in the Red Sea by bloodying the Houthis' nose," said Vaez

Of course they do. And this is where the Biden administration should make change. The US Navy maintaining freedom of navigation is nothing written in stone. I believe it is Navy policy and nothing more. To what degree the cost of shipping route changes affect the US and its western allies versus how it affects China's shipping/economy should be a weighting factor.

So should the degree to which the US wants to encourage China to build a globe-spanning network of ports, naval bases, and support facilities; and/or to build a Navy designed to operate outside the immediate region of the China Sea.

If the US Navy wants the ability to operate globally, and consequently wants to limit unfriendly powers from gaining similar abilities, then she becomes, in the process, the only power that is capable of policing global freedom of navigation.

To fail to exercise that power having denied it to others would be an unconscionable and highly damaging approach, that would harm the entire world - including the US herself.

 

[Derec]

If it were up to Derec, the Chinese request would have come too late. If he were in charge the war would already have started.

And what makes you think the Houthis are likely to acquiesce to said request?

Or if they do, they'd avoid Chinese-linked ships and continue to attack western ones.
After all, their motto contains "death to America, death to Israel" (aping their liege lords) and not "death to China".

 

[Derec]

Of course they do. And this is where the Biden administration should make change. The US Navy maintaining freedom of navigation is nothing written in stone. I believe it is Navy policy and nothing more.

That does not mean it's a bad policy. Biden should have hit Houthis hard in November, and their shipping disruptions would have been forgotten by now. Instead, the old fool is dithering. Took him forever to even authorize the pinpricks.

On the Iran issue, Biden might consider hitting Iran economically rather than militarily. That is, striking Iranian economic targets such as their oil infrastructure.

That would still be a military response. An economic response would be something like more sanctions, but is there even anything left for US to sanction? Hitting their oil infrastructure would likely be perceived as more of an escalation than hitting IRGC because the latter is striking a military target and the former is striking an economic/ostensibly civilian one.
Still, an interesting strategy. But let's not delude ourselves that it is the less provocative option.

But all the military tit for tat has done little over the years. If Biden strikes Iran's military in some small way it will just be more of the same.

Tit for tat is not accomplishing much. But the Biden administration is afraid of any "escalation" even if well-timed escalation can bring the conflict to an end sooner. That's why they keep hitting Houthi drones on launching pads instead of going after Houthi forces and leadership. The latter would stop the Red Sea piracy with the quickness, but Biden doesn't want to "escalate". Oy vey!

Of course we could always begin to unwind our wrong-headed support for Israel. That's something we've never tried.

For a good reason. It would be the worst option possible. For one, it would give a major propaganda victory to the jihadists.
Israel may be flawed, but they are orders of magnitude preferable to the alternative.

As it stands now, it looks like we might be headed for having to decide to support Israel in a war against Lebanon too.

Not against Lebanon. Against Hezbollah, another Iranian vassal. It is, over and over again, Iran that is pulling the strings.

 

[Derec]

I think that this could help improve relations between the US and Iran,

Not feasible until and unless there is a regime change in Tehran.

because both nations have an obstreperous-ally problem, and the nations' officials could commiserate about that.

Did you just compare Israel with the Houthis? Houthis are a terrorist group that oppresses people under their control. They are also a vassal of Iran. Israel is none of those things.

 

[Derec]

That’s my point. Biden can make political hay out of some public request of the Do Nothing Party. It's an election year.

It seems to me that Biden is the Do Nothing (or at least Do As Little As Possible) President on this issue. It is the opposition that is urging him to take more decisive action.

Should Biden engage in the usual knee-jerk response, pushing the US deeper into conflict now? The Houthis are the world's problem.

And the Security Council issued a resolution against them. But there is no Earth Navy nor Earth Air Force. US has the means to put the hurt on the Houthis. Biden has avoided doing that, for fear of "escalation". Sometimes you have to go deeper temporarily to be able to end a conflict. This tit for tat - Houthis shooting missiles and drones at ships and US shooting Houthi missiles and drones on launching pads - can go on indefinitely as long as Iran is sending them weapons. Alternatively, it can be over quick by hitting Houthis hard to show them we mean business.

This is affecting all who ship through the Suez Canal. It hurts buyers and sellers alike and is yet another reason for near-shoring. The attack on the US outpost does deserve a response but it need not be immediate. Biden can shame congress first. He can always give a star-spangled response later in the year.

Shame Congress? If he went to Congress for authorization of force against Houthis or even against Iran, he would see the most opposition from his own party.

 

[Derec]

What point would there be?
The pirates are allies of Iran. Iranians are allies of Russia. Trump is an ally of Russia.

A BS conspiracy theory. Remember that Trump hit Soleimani and that it was Dems who complained.
Democratic presidential candidates condemn killing of Iran general

Or how about Biden administration unfreezing billions of dollars to the Shiite Entity?

 

[TomC]

It seems to me that Biden is the Do Nothing (or at least Do As Little As Possible) President on this issue. It is the opposition that is urging him to take more decisive action.

That's insane.
The Obama/Biden administration launched a peace plan with Iran. The Teaparty torpedoed it, and Trump killed it.
Ever since, those dumbasses have been complaining about Iran's behavior. While steadfastly preventing any positive U.S. government action, for fear that Biden would take credit for getting something done!
Tom

 

[TomC]

Or how about Biden administration unfreezing billions of dollars to the Shiite Entity?

When did that happen?
Tom

 

[Derec]

That's insane.
The Obama/Biden administration launched a peace plan with Iran. The Teaparty torpedoed it, and Trump killed it.

It wasn't a "peace plan". It was just a temporary nuclear deal. It gave Iran sanction relief for temporarily suspending nuclear weapons development. It did not touch on things like missiles or support for terrorist groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Houthis.
It was a rotten deal in other words. It should never have been agreed to in this form.

Ever since, those dumbasses have been complaining about Iran's behavior. While steadfastly preventing any positive U.S. government action, for fear that Biden would take credit for getting something done!

All that Biden has done vis-a-vis the Tehran regime is to give them cash.

 

[TomC]

It wasn't a "peace plan". It was just a temporary nuclear deal. It gave Iran sanction relief for temporarily suspending nuclear weapons development. It did not touch on things like missiles or support for terrorist groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Houthis.
It was a rotten deal in other words. It should never have been agreed to in this form.

It was a start on convincing Iran that we weren't their permanent enemies.
Do you think the current situation is better? Iran is an ally of Russia, supports Islamic terrorists, and we have zero influence? Because we've proven that the USA cannot be trusted longer than an election cycle?
Tom

 

[Derec]

Or how about Biden administration unfreezing billions of dollars to the Shiite Entity?

When did that happen?
Tom

Right before the October massacre:
Biden’s $6 Billion Ransom Payment to Iran Fuels Their Terror Machine
And in November (long after the war against Hamas started):
Iran Receives Access to $10 Billion Thanks to U.S. Sanctions Waiver

 

[Derec]

It was a start on convincing Iran that we weren't their permanent enemies.

We should be the friends of the Iranian people and permanent enemies of the theocratic regime.
It's like saying we should have entered deals with Nazi Germany to show Hitler et al that we are not their "permanent enemies".

Do you think the current situation is better?
Tom

Tehran having no sanctions despite funding and arming terrorists and despite the nuclear deal only being temporary?
The current situation is at least more honest. It would have been better if we had struck IRGC targets and nuclear weapons development sites by now though. Tehran getting nuclear weapons would be the worst case scenario in international politics.

Iran is an ally of Russia, supports Islamic terrorists, and we have zero influence?

Iran has supported Islamic terrorists well before the nuclear deal. And the deal had no provisions for them to stop funding and arming them. That's one of the reasons why it was such a rotten deal.
As to their allies, birds of a feather flock together. Tehran is also allied with the Bolivarian dictatorship in Caracas. Quelle surprise!

Because we've proven that the USA cannot be trusted longer than an election cycle?

Nature of democracy. Had it been an actual treaty, it would have been hard to undo. But if it is just an agreement made by the executive branch, with no ratification by the Senate, then it obviously can be undone by the following administration.
Should the Biden administration be bound by any executive action Trump made? Then why should Obama's be any more permanent?

 

[lpetrich]

Pro-Houthi Channels Threaten To Harm Internet Cables | MEMRI - December 26, 2023

On December 24, 2023, a Telegram channel affiliated with Yemen's Iran-backed Ansar Allah Movement (the Houthis) shared[1] a map of networks of submarine communications cables in the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Persian Gulf. The map was accompanied by an implied threat: "There are maps of international cables connecting all regions of the world through the sea. It seems that Yemen is in a strategic location, as internet lines that connect entire continents – not only countries – pass near it."

On the same day, a Telegram channel affiliated with Lebanese Hizbullah published [2] a satellite image of the Red Sea, the Arabian Peninsula and the Arabian Sea, and wrote: "Did you know that internet lines connecting the east to the west pass through [the] Bab-el-Mandeb [strait]?" The "Al-Fatih110" Telegram channel, which supports Iran-backed militias in Iraq, similarly quoted the Houthis as stating that "the global internet cables which pass through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait are in our grip," and questioned if this was a "veiled message to the Western coalition."

The Next Casualty of the Red Sea Attacks: Undersea Cables - Gulf International Forum - "The Houthis, undeterred by Western strikes, may now target vital undersea cables, signaling an evolving threat that could critically disrupt global communications and economy."

In early December, the group threatened to attack any ships transiting through the Red Sea to Israel, regardless of their nationality. In the weeks since, they have attacked neutral vessels, promising to continue as long as Israeli forces remain active in Gaza.

,,,
In the twenty-first century, these cables serve as some of the world’s most critical digital infrastructure—servicing more than 95 percent of international data flows and communications—including an estimated $10 trillion in financial transactions every day. Even partial damage to the undersea cables could eliminate internet access across vast areas, causing major economic disruptions for entire countries.

Even more concerning for the Gulf Cooperation Council states, the United States, and Washington’s allies, damaging these cables could cut off military or government communications. The cables are the only hardware with enough bandwidth to accommodate the terabytes of military sensor data that inform ongoing operations. In the years to come, as technologies like artificial intelligence develop, the amount of data required to sustain advanced military operations will only increase.

The Houthis have very limited miltiary hardware by great-power standards, though that has helped them survive.

In 2013, three divers were arrested in Egypt for attempting to cut an undersea cable near the port of Alexandria that provides much of the internet capacity between Europe and Egypt—highlighting the possibility that militants without special equipment or training could carry out a similar mission. The Houthis, who have undergone combat diver training, could employ a similar method of attack, and have an arsenal of naval mines with which to damage the cables.

The Persian Gulf is very shallow, with a depth of 90 meters (295 feet) maximum, 50 m (164 ft) average, and the Bab el Mandeb's average depth is 186 m (609 ft). The Red Sea has a trench in the middle of it that goes down to 3,040 m (9,974 ft)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

On the Iran issue, Biden might consider hitting Iran economically rather than militarily. That is, striking Iranian economic targets such as their oil infrastructure. A limited US military strike on Iranian oil infrastructure would hurt Iran immediately and perhaps lastingly by putting a pause on Chinese investment within Iran.

But all the military tit for tat has done little over the years. If Biden strikes Iran's military in some small way it will just be more of the same.

We keep avoiding doing anything meaningful to Iran. Iran is fine with the minor losses of the units actually committed.

I do agree that their oil infrastructure should be the target. Hit them where it hurts. It doesn't move so there's plenty of time to evacuate.

Of course we could always begin to unwind our wrong-headed support for Israel. That's something we've never tried. As it stands now, it looks like we might be headed for having to decide to support Israel in a war against Lebanon too.

Iran is going after basically everyone, not just Israel.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It seems to me that Biden is the Do Nothing (or at least Do As Little As Possible) President on this issue. It is the opposition that is urging him to take more decisive action.

That's insane.
The Obama/Biden administration launched a peace plan with Iran. The Teaparty torpedoed it, and Trump killed it.
Ever since, those dumbasses have been complaining about Iran's behavior. While steadfastly preventing any positive U.S. government action, for fear that Biden would take credit for getting something done!
Tom

There has never been a peace plan with Iran. There have been concessions for the purpose of encouraging peace but Iran continues to simply play us for fools.

 

[lpetrich]

Ship Sinks In Red Sea After Yemen's Houthi Rebels Attack | TIME

A ship attacked by Yemen's Houthi rebels has sunk in the Red Sea after days of taking on water, officials said Saturday, the first vessel to be fully destroyed as part of their campaign over Israel's war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The sinking of the Rubymar, which carried a cargo of fertilizer and previously leaked fuel, could cause ecological damage to the Red Sea and its coral reefs.

...
The Belize-flagged Rubymar had been drifting northward after being struck by a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile on Feb. 18 in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial waterway linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

3 Red Sea Data Cables Cut as Houthis Launch More Attacks | TIME

Meanwhile, a Houthi missile attack set a ship ablaze in the Gulf of Aden, but caused no injuries.

What cut the lines remains unclear. There has been concern about the cables being targeted in the Houthi campaign, which the rebels describe as an effort to pressure Israel to end its war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The Houthis have denied attacking the lines, however.

...
The cut lines include Asia-Africa-Europe 1, the Europe India Gateway, Seacom and TGN-Gulf, Hong Kong-based HGC Global Communications said. It described the cuts as affecting 25% of the traffic flowing through the Red Sea. It described the Red Sea route as crucial for data moving from Asia to Europe and said it had begun rerouting traffic.

Houthi Missile Attack Kills 2 Crew Members | TIME

A missile attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels on a commercial ship in the Gulf of Aden killed two of its crew members and forced survivors to abandon the vessel on Wednesday, officials said, in the first fatal strike in a campaign of assaults by the Iranian-backed group over Israel's war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The attack on the Barbados-flagged bulk carrier True Confidence further escalates the conflict on a crucial maritime route linking Asia and the Middle East to Europe that has disrupted global shipping. The Houthis have launched attacks since November, and the U.S. began an airstrike campaign in January that so far hasn't halted their attacks.

Meanwhile, Iran announced Wednesday that it would confiscate a $50 million cargo of Kuwaiti crude oil for American energy firm Chevron Corp. aboard a tanker it seized nearly a year earlier. It is the latest twist in a yearslong shadow war playing out in the Middle East’s waterways even before the Houthi attacks began.

 

[TomC]

I suppose the next step for the international community is to blame Israel and the USA for the suffering of poor Yemenis who can't feed their children.
Tom