How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jimmy Higgins]

My predictions regarding Putin have been spot on

I don't care about your predictions. I don't even care that much about my own predictions. I care for the facts and explanations.

Like after President Zelensky is murdered?

 

[Harry Bosch]

No one wants to "harass Russia into Submission".

Right hand of Saakashvili vehemently disagrees with you here. And she does so on record.
And it does not even matter. That's what I and really 140 millions russians believe.

There are many Russians who want peace but are afraid to talk due to Putin's secret police. Regardless, it's really pretty simple: if you don't want people to mean to Russia, stop invading other countries. Stop your cyber-attacks. Stop being a bunch of bullies. Join the rest of the world.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

That's just redicullous. NATO is a defensive alliance to curb Russian aggression. If

I don't believe that for a second.

NATO forgot to invade the Soviet Union then.

 

[Jarhyn]

I am done here, pointless waste of time.

Fucking. Finally.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

No one wants to "harass Russia into Submission".

Right hand of Saakashvili vehemently disagrees with you here. And she does so on record.
And it does not even matter. That's what I and really 140 millions russians believe.

There are many Russians who want peace but are afraid to talk due to Putin's secret police. Regardless, it's really pretty simple: if you don't want people to mean to Russia, stop invading other countries. Stop your cyber-attacks. Stop being a bunch of bullies. Join the rest of the world.

Of course, that coming from the US who's operation in Iraq led to the displacement of 1,000,000 people and deaths of at least 100,000 Iraqis... *sigh*

 

[Jarhyn]

No one wants to "harass Russia into Submission".

Right hand of Saakashvili vehemently disagrees with you here. And she does so on record.
And it does not even matter. That's what I and really 140 millions russians believe.

There are many Russians who want peace but are afraid to talk due to Putin's secret police. Regardless, it's really pretty simple: if you don't want people to mean to Russia, stop invading other countries. Stop your cyber-attacks. Stop being a bunch of bullies. Join the rest of the world.

Of course, that coming from the US who's operation in Iraq led to the displacement of 1,000,000 people and deaths of at least 100,000 Iraqis... *sigh*

And we objected to the ginned up invasion then, too, if you recall.

 

[Harry Bosch]

That's just redicullous. NATO is a defensive alliance to curb Russian aggression. If

I don't believe that for a second.

NATO forgot to invade the Soviet Union then.

No one wants to "harass Russia into Submission".

Right hand of Saakashvili vehemently disagrees with you here. And she does so on record.
And it does not even matter. That's what I and really 140 millions russians believe.

There are many Russians who want peace but are afraid to talk due to Putin's secret police. Regardless, it's really pretty simple: if you don't want people to mean to Russia, stop invading other countries. Stop your cyber-attacks. Stop being a bunch of bullies. Join the rest of the world.

Of course, that coming from the US who's operation in Iraq led to the displacement of 1,000,000 people and deaths of at least 100,000 Iraqis... *sigh*

No, my comments above are coming from me. I don't speak for all Americans. And the people who decided to invade Iraq didn't speak for me. I was against the war in Iraq. I'm against America bullying other countries. I don't blame all Russians for the invasion. I blame the decision makers. Finally, most of the world is against this invasion, with the exception of China and Trump.

 

[Keith&Co.]

I am done here, pointless waste of time.

There's an elevator in my building. A big, slow, industrial moving room that gives access to an office space about five floors above the manufacturing floor.
There's no window. No floor indicator. Can't feel it moving. No way to tell you're in motion.
Takes for EVER. Literally. I'm an old fart with no knees and i can climb the steps faster than the elevator travels.

Two months ago, someone decided they needed to inspect the 5th floor space and took that slowvator. It paused, trapping them between floors. They used the emergency phone to call for help.

All we wanted to know what 'Just how long were you trapped in there before you realized you WERE trapped?

They refuse to explain how long they were in there, but apparently the answer is 2,040 posts.

 

[bleubird]

A bitter/sweet side effect of this is ANS crude is over $95 USD. It may help balance our budget.

 

[ZiprHead]

So the Russian position is clear: Russia is going to unilaterally start a war.

If it becomes clear that NATO is taking over Ukraine then yes. That's what Putin implied in 2008.

barbos, this was one of your posts from next day in December. NATO wasn't taking over Ukraine. "Taking over" is pretty vague anyway and strong ties to Ukraine would not be taking it over, nor would that be justification for an invasion.

What do you mean NATO wasn't taking over Ukraine?
And It IS his justification for invasion. Why is hard to understand for you?

I thought it was to get rid of the Nazis???

 

[pood]

I am done here, pointless waste of time.

Trolling didn’t pay off, heh?

Barbos, in this thread you have made a number of bizarre statements — that Georgia attacked Russia, that NATO has invaded and occupied Ukraine, that Ukraine (with its Jewish president) is run by Nazis. This is all claptrap and so transparent that even a toddler could see through your bilge. Why do you blather on so, here? What is the point? I am sure that you yourself cannot possibly believe this codswallop.

You also predicted that Russia would not invade Ukraine and now that it has, you seamlessly shift to defending this monstrous act, while nonetheless taking care to put scare quotes around the word “invasion” as if to suggest that it not a real invasion after all.

You have also made some correct statements about the historical malfeasance of the West, in particular the United States. Vietnam was an American war crime. Pinochet’s installation was an American war crime. The invasion of Iraq under with a false pretext was an American war crime. The list goes on, all the way back to the 1950s. I still recall with revulsion when President Dubya, that smirking imbecile, made a jokey video in the mid-2000s for some correspondents’ dinner. It showed him in the Oval Office searching for, and not finding, WMDs. The war he launched under the lie that Iraq had WMDs turned out to be a big joke for this goon. He, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Powell, and Kissinger — who amazingly is still alive, validating the old saw that only the good die young — should all have been brought up long ago before a war crimes tribunal.

That said, none of these facts — NONE of them — justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The only Nazis in this war are the crime boss in the Kremlin and the lackeys, enablers and oligarchs that have profited off looting of the Russian people and have now set their sights on subjugating Kyiv. And your professed belief that 140 millions Russians support this war crime is delusional, as demonstrated by mass Russian protests that have already broken out.

There is a thesis propounded by many that NATO expansion to the east after the collapse of the Soviet Union was a mistake. This thesis was shared by George Kennan, one of the architects of NATO, who said in the late 90s, when the expansion was taking place, that it was a mistake, that NATO was founded purely as a bulwark against Soviet aggression in Western Europe and with the demise of the Soviets, it had lost is reason for existence and certainly had no reason to expand. I have always had some sympathy for this argument.

But then I think, we cannot study counterfactual histories to determine definitely what might have been. One can now just as easily and perhaps more plausibly argue that Putin or someone like him was bound to come along anyway and dream of restoring the Russian empire to its former imagined glory. And if Poland and the Baltic states were not in NATO, where would we be today? Would Putin or someone even worse now be menacing Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, in addition to Ukraine? After all, Poland and those other states were for a very long time part of Russia. Would that justify an irredentist fantasy to absorb them once again? Why not? That seems to be one of your lame justifications for the current invasion you predicted would not happen.

The best outcome for this catastrophe initiated entirely by the Red Nazi in the Kremlin is that Russian forces eventually get their ass handed to them the way the Soviets did in Afghanistan, precipitating the dissolution of the entire Russian Federation into numerous enfeebled mini-states in the exact same way that the Soviet Union was dissolved into numerous independent countries. Unfortunately, though I think Russia richly deserves this fate, I then recall that nuclear weapons would still be floating around in such a scenario, ripe for the plucking by successor lunatics to Putin and his vile mob.

At the most we can hope for disastrous Russian casualties in Ukraine and the eventual overthrow of Putin, though it pains me to even say that, for I wish casualties on no one, not even the Russian troops who after all are merely pawns for Moscow’s Mad Vlad.

 

[Jarhyn]

I am done here, pointless waste of time.

Trolling didn’t pay off, heh?

Barbos, in this thread you have made a number of bizarre statements — that Georgia attacked Russia, that NATO has invaded and occupied Ukraine, that Ukraine (with its Jewish president) is run by Nazis. This is all claptrap and so transparent that even a toddler could see through your bilge. Why do you blather on so, here? What is the point? I am sure that you yourself cannot possibly believe this codswallop.

You also predicted that Russia would not invade Ukraine and now that it has, you seamlessly shift to defending this monstrous act, while nonetheless taking care to put scare quotes around the word “invasion” as if to suggest that it not a real invasion after all.

You have also made some correct statements about the historical malfeasance of the West, in particular the United States. Vietnam was an American war crime. Pinochet’s installation was an American war crime. The invasion of Iraq under with a false pretext was an American war crime. The list goes on, all the way back to the 1950s. I still recall with revulsion when President Dubya, that smirking imbecile, made a jokey video in the mid-2000s for some correspondents’ dinner. It showed him in the Oval Office searching for, and not finding, WMDs. The war he launched under the lie that Iraq had WMDs turned out to be a big joke for this goon. He, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Powell, and Kissinger — who amazingly is still alive, validating the old saw that only the good die young — should all have been brought up long ago before a war crimes tribunal.

That said, none of these facts — NONE of them — justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The only Nazis in this war are the crime boss in the Kremlin and the lackeys, enablers and oligarchs that have profited off looting of the Russian people and have now set their sights on subjugating Kyiv. And your professed belief that 140 millions Russians support this war crime is delusional, as demonstrated by mass Russian protests that have already broken out.

There is a thesis propounded by many that NATO expansion to the east after the collapse of the Soviet Union was a mistake. This thesis was shared by George Kennan, one of the architects of NATO, who said in the late 90s, when the expansion was taking place, that it was a mistake, that NATO was founded purely as a bulwark against Soviet aggression in Western Europe and with the demise of the Soviets, it had lost is reason for existence and certainly had no reason to expand. I have always had some sympathy for this argument.

But then I think, we cannot study counterfactual histories to determine definitely what might have been. One can now just as easily and perhaps more plausibly argue that Putin or someone like him was bound to come along anyway and dream of restoring the Russian empire to its former imagined glory. And if Poland and the Baltic states were not in NATO, where would we be today? Would Putin or someone even worse now be menacing Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, in addition to Ukraine? After all, Poland and those other states were for a very long time part of Russia. Would that justify an irredentist fantasy to absorb them once again? Why not? That seems to be one of your lame justifications for the current invasion you predicted would not happen.

The best outcome for this catastrophe initiated entirely by the Red Nazi in the Kremlin is that Russian forces eventually get their ass handed to them the way the Soviets did in Afghanistan, precipitating the dissolution of the entire Russian Federation into numerous enfeebled mini-states in the exact same way that the Soviet Union was dissolved into numerous independent countries. Unfortunately, though I think Russia richly deserves this fate, I then recall that nuclear weapons would still be floating around in such a scenario, ripe for the plucking by successor lunatics to Putin and his vile mob.

At the most we can hope for disastrous Russian casualties in Ukraine and the eventual overthrow of Putin, though it pains me to even say that, for I wish casualties on no one, not even the Russian troops who after all are merely pawns for Moscow’s Mad Vlad.

The thing I find just a little bit funny about all of this is that Barbos was spitting Mad Vlad's arguments and positions, AFAIK, before Vlad ever made them public.

 

[zorq]

This is going nowhere.
Why am I even doing that when I can watch Dr. Who?
Seriously? why? it's been 8 years. And you learned absolutely nothing!
I know how Mearsheimer feels, At least he is old and lived his life.

You know, I really wish you would watch and learn from the Mearsheimer lecture you posted instead of obsessing over its title.

Your ridiculous accusations of NATO trying to encircle and strangle Russia are delusional. Mearsheimer explained it in his lecture. The West was happy to see Russia abandon Communism, and they were eager for Russia to join them in peace and economic cooperation. The West really thought that Russia was worthy of a seat at the table as an equal. NATO probably would have invited Russia to join if she had worked on her corruption, democracy, and human rights in the '90s. You know the basic stuff that is good for citizens in every country. That is the mistake that Mearsheimer says the West made. This crisis is the West's fault because they underestimated how uncivilized, barbaric, and paranoid Russia is ("19th century thinkers" as he calls them).

I have suggested this before, but please, go back and watch the lecture again but this time pay attention to what he says about why this is the west's fault. Russia was never in any danger from NATO until she started attacking her neighbors again. Even though the West could have averted this crisis by listening to Russia's warnings, it is all really Russia's fault for being paranoid 19th century thinkers in a 21st century world.

Mearsheimer's alternate timeline solution to averting this crisis would be to not agitate Russia and not expand NATO eastward. This would have meant leaving million's of vulnerable people in eastern Europe at the mercy of the militaristic whims of an unstable country ruled by deranged warmongers (Russia). So it isn't really a solution at all. In this timeline where the west didn't expand NATO eastward, instead of a crisis in Ukraine in 2014, Russia might have gone after the easy picking of the non-NATO Baltic states first. Mearsheimer's imagined solution of appeasing Russia's paranoid delusions, is dubious.

 

[DrZoidberg]

No one wants to "harass Russia into Submission".

Right hand of Saakashvili vehemently disagrees with you here. And she does so on record.
And it does not even matter. That's what I and really 140 millions russians believe.

There are many Russians who want peace but are afraid to talk due to Putin's secret police. Regardless, it's really pretty simple: if you don't want people to mean to Russia, stop invading other countries. Stop your cyber-attacks. Stop being a bunch of bullies. Join the rest of the world.

Of course, that coming from the US who's operation in Iraq led to the displacement of 1,000,000 people and deaths of at least 100,000 Iraqis... *sigh*

My hairdresser is an Iraqui. Was a refugee who escaped during the 2003 war and settled in Denmark, a country he doesn't like. I asked him yesterday if he thought the invasion was good for Iraq. He said, "on balance, yes. Saddam had to go. He was like a wild animal who didn't know when to stop". This is coming from a man who never wanted to leave Iraq and who paid an extremely high personal price for the war.

Nobody is going to say that the Russian invasion was, on balance, positive. Nobody thinks the new puppet president will be an upgrade for an independent Ukraine

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

link

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called on Ukraine’s armed forces to “take power” from the democratically elected government of President Volodymyr Zelensky, underscoring Putin’s determination to drive the Ukrainian leader from office.

Addressing his hawkish Security Council by video link on Friday, Putin claimed “neo-Nazis” in Ukraine had placed heavy weapons in residential neighborhoods in cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv, saying they were “acting like terrorists” and using women, children, wives and elderly people “as human shields.”

Zelensky is a celebrity that wanted to free up Ukraine from corruption and now he has an assassination target on him, as Putin aims to rid Ukraine of the boogieman. I don't know if this language is used to justify their actions or whether he is purposefully targeting windmills to keep the Ukrainian government wondering whether they'll be removed from power or executed, in order to rush their exile from the nation.

 

[Elixir]

So the Russian position is clear: Russia is going to unilaterally start a war.

If it becomes clear that NATO is taking over Ukraine then yes. That's what Putin implied in 2008.

barbos, this was one of your posts from next day in December. NATO wasn't taking over Ukraine. "Taking over" is pretty vague anyway and strong ties to Ukraine would not be taking it over, nor would that be justification for an invasion.

What do you mean NATO wasn't taking over Ukraine?
And It IS his justification for invasion. Why is hard to understand for you?

You’re damn lucky that nobody else “thinks” like you and Pootey. Because if they did there would be ample reason to take Russia apart, try and execute the dictator and break it up like post war Germany.
And if this ridiculous crime against humanity continues, there is an increasing chance that this will happen. Especially if anyone puts stock into Pootey’s nuclear threat.

 

[Elixir]

The thing I find just a little bit funny about all of this is that Barbos was spitting Mad Vlad's arguments and positions, AFAIK, before Vlad ever made them public.

Not the first time either. I am a little sad that Barbos seems to have been recalled by his handlers. But it’s predictable, as he has outlived his usefulness on this forum and is making Vlad look very bad with his … uh … “misinformed statements” and the obvious falsity of so many of his recent proclamations. He probably forgot that Americans don’t swallow Pootey’s propaganda as eagerly as he does.
Oh well… perhaps he will return when conditions change or he is re-trained for the new angles of his mission.

 

[SigmatheZeta]

He is getting into position to march into Poland:

Google News

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news.google.com

He has wildly underestimated NATO, I think. He is actually following a similar pattern to that of Napoleon Bonaparte. He has been emboldened by rapid victories over unready enemies, and he has been given an exaggerated idea of his level of support due to quick defections close to his border. Furthermore, I doubt he believes that the hesitation of other countries to enter the conflict is due to their inclination to comply with international treaties and to preserve general political stability outside his direct sphere of influence. Also, he is not taking into account that a part of why other countries hesitate to come to Ukraine's rescue is that doing so would lead to other non-NATO members scaling back their national defense with the expectation of receiving the same no-strings aid in the future, and for NATO to remain a meaningful system, its members need to at least try to work within the agreement's obligations. Where the real reason behind their reticence is respect for order, I strongly suspect that Putin sees weakness.

He is really putting himself into a pickle. If he does not invade Poland, where US troops are stationed, he will come across to his own people as a timid man that really shies away from a real fight, which would weaken the resolve of his troops as Ukraine turned out to be a more difficult country than expected to dominate, but if he does invade Poland, then NATO would have the pretext they need, in the eyes of the world, to fight back against Russia, having already established in the minds of Putin's allies that they do not have any inclination to attack any country that has not attacked them. China MIGHT send troops or weapons IF NATO were to intervene on behalf of a non-NATO member that their ally does not acknowledge as separate from Russia, but if NATO only sent troops after an attack on a NATO member, then China would hesitate to put themselves in harm's way if they do not have to.

Putin MIGHT prefer to consolidate in Ukraine, but this will not sit well with Russian forces that are conscious of being effectively surrounded.

Putin therefore is in a fork.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Jarhyn]

The thing I find just a little bit funny about all of this is that Barbos was spitting Mad Vlad's arguments and positions, AFAIK, before Vlad ever made them public.

Not the first time either. I am a little sad that Barbos seems to have been recalled by his handlers. But it’s predictable, as he has outlived his usefulness on this forum and is making Vlad look very bad with his … uh … “misinformed statements” and the obvious falsity of so many of his recent proclamations. He probably forgot that Americans don’t swallow Pootey’s propaganda as eagerly as he does.
Oh well… perhaps he will return when conditions change or he is re-trained for the new angles of his mission.

I wonder occasionally if Pooty himself posts on forums like these.