How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Gospel]

I think a better question is how will the world respond because world leaders have a track record of not doing what their citizens want on the world stage.

 

[Elixir]

He's evil. But not as evil as we are led to believe. Trump was the same.

That is the very definition of cold comfort.
Trump is an egomaniacal criminal psychopath. The only difference is that this week, Putin has the nukes (and about 50 IQ points that Trump lacks).

 

[crazyfingers]

Unless Putin has lost his mind, this likely ends with Ukraine. The impact to the global economy is likely overstated. If Putin murders Zelensky, the market will drop though. It Putin tries an incursion into NATO, we can lay waste to his petro/gas infrastructure leaving him with an army stuck where they are. But that'll mess up the energy market a boatload, as well as lead to cyber attacks from Putin. Make certain your software is up to date security wise.

Well, it will suck for Ukrainians. Not good at all. But better than him pushing NATO into military action. Ukraine may be the extent of his plans now. But you can bet that he sees the membership of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland in NATO as some personal affront. I personally don't think that he'll let the pressure off long term. He's going to try to keep tensions high. Never mind that those countries joined NATO precisely because they know that they can't trust Putin to leave well enough alone.

It's a shame. Russia could have been a respected country if they'd just play by the international rules. Focus on trade, commerce, build up their manufacturing to raise the standard of living in Russia. I was shocked to see Russian GDP is smaller than Canada. Canada's GDP per capita is not so different than US. Canada population at around 10% of the US, Canada is doing fine. But Russia having a larger population than the US but a smaller GDP than Canada is an abject failure for a country that was once a technological leader.

 

[Elixir]

I think there’s a very good chance that he will try taking a tiny bite out of NATO just to see how they react. A little corridor to connect Kaliningrad to the rest of his kingdom isn’t too much to ask, considering that it was always part of Russia prior to “western interference”, don’t you think? Surely not worth the nuclear war he will threaten if anyone tries to stop him, right?

 

[pood]

Unless he has gone totally off his rocker, which is possible, he will not move against any NATO nation. If he does, I believe the Russian military would depose him.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah. That is generally the result of crap leadership in Russia since... well, no one remembers that far back. Ultimately, Putin is "Making Russia Great Again"... but again... that back when umm... any one know?

 

[barbos]

But Russia having a larger population than the US but a smaller GDP than Canada is an abject failure for a country that was once a technological leader.

Sorry, I had to come out from my exile to quote this for history.

These are the people I am trying to educate. This planet is doomed.
I don't have good theories on that, I just don't.

 

[barbos]

Some alternative opinion for you to counter ukrainian propaganda.


She is amused at the support Ukraine is getting from the World after 1 day of moderate war.
She has had 8 years of that without any support from the World and for some weird coincidence it ended the same day it started in Ukraine.

 

[pood]

But Russia having a larger population than the US but a smaller GDP than Canada is an abject failure for a country that was once a technological leader.

These are the people I am trying to educate.

Now you’d better skedaddle back to your Red Nazi reprogramming. Czar Putin needs you to do a better job.

 

[Jayjay]

I'm going to stick my neck out and predict that occupying Donetsk and Luhansk is as far as Russia goes. And I'm also going to say, so fucking what if he does. They've effectively been independent for 7 years now - along with Crimea. They are indeed heavily Russian areas of Ukraine to begin with. They should have been returned to Russia in the 1990's instead of now and done so peacefully.

Thumbs up for taking your chances. But that prediction got old really fast.

My current prediction is that Russia will take most if not all of the land east of Dnepr river and the entire southern coastline, and leave a shattered Ukrainian pseudo-state in north-West. The alternative would be to take over the whole country, but it would be harder to hold permanently as you pointed out, and it's better to have some place you can ship all the ethnic Ukrainians from the Russian-controlled areas. There can't be an insurrection if there are no insurrectionists.

 

[skepticalbip]

Unless he has gone totally off his rocker, which is possible, he will not move against any NATO nation. If he does, I believe the Russian military would depose him.

I doubt that the Russian military would do anything other than that dictated by Putin. Putin rules by fear. Anyone in a leadership position who opposes him is eliminated. Soldiers follow orders and the higher ranking officers who may silently oppose Putin wouldn't dare overtly express disagreement... They are well aware of what happens to those who do.

 

[pood]

Unless he has gone totally off his rocker, which is possible, he will not move against any NATO nation. If he does, I believe the Russian military would depose him.

I doubt that the Russian military would do anything other than that dictated by Putin. Putin rules by fear. Anyone in a leadership position who opposes him is eliminated. Soldiers follow orders and the higher ranking officers who may silently oppose Putin wouldn't dare overtly express disagreement... They are well aware of what happens to those who do.

Putin is backed by the military and the oligarchs, and he is the lead oligarch. The Russian military is well aware of the dire consequences of attacking NATO, and the oligarchs do not want to see all the wealth and assets that they looted from the Russian people go up in mushroom clouds. Even before this debacle began, there were press reports of dissension in the Russian military over any Ukraine invasion. Putin is not invincible.

 

[Jayjay]

Post war Stalin went on a land grab

What land he grabbed? do you know?
Russia/USSR is/were a big, sparsely populated country.
No land grabbing is required.

Estonia. Lithuania. Latvia. Karelia. Pechengsky. Königsberg. To name a few. To imperialist asshats like Stalin, Hitler or Putin, it doesn't matter how much they have, it's how much they can gain.

And that's just what was directly attached to Soviet Union; as you very well know the entire Eastern bloc became USSR puppets.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

But Russia having a larger population than the US but a smaller GDP than Canada is an abject failure for a country that was once a technological leader.

Sorry, I had to come out from my exile to quote this for history.

These are the people I am trying to educate. This planet is doomed.
I don't have good theories on that, I just don't.

Well, Russia still has a GDP per capita that is about 1/4 that in Canada.

Maybe at some point, it'll become more clear that the Russian leadership has done nothing but disservice to the general Russian population for over 100 years and the blame should be placed on them, not windmills.

 

[crazyfingers]

But Russia having a larger population than the US but a smaller GDP than Canada is an abject failure for a country that was once a technological leader.

Sorry, I had to come out from my exile to quote this for history.

These are the people I am trying to educate. This planet is doomed.
I don't have good theories on that, I just don't.

Nothing like quoting to say nothing.

 

[skepticalbip]

The real shame, IMO, is that national leaders in Western countries express outrage but they only pretend to actually do something. If they really want to end Russian expansionism then they need to address Russia's source of financing. Russia's economy is based on oil and gas exports, similar to that Saudi Arabia. The E.U. is a major customer and even the U.S. imports more than 20 million barrels of Russian oil per month. The U.S. could easily stop importing Russian oil and the E.U. could, at least, severely cut back on their import of Russian oil. I have seen no evidence that either the U.S. or the E.U. have even considered such a step. So we are basically financing the Russian expansionism. Hell, even the pretend sanctions do not target the person in Russia most responsible, Putin.

 

[barbos]

But Russia having a larger population than the US but a smaller GDP than Canada is an abject failure for a country that was once a technological leader.

Sorry, I had to come out from my exile to quote this for history.

These are the people I am trying to educate. This planet is doomed.
I don't have good theories on that, I just don't.

Nothing like quoting to say nothing.

You still don't get it?????
:double facepalm:

 

[barbos]

But Russia having a larger population than the US but a smaller GDP than Canada is an abject failure for a country that was once a technological leader.

Sorry, I had to come out from my exile to quote this for history.

These are the people I am trying to educate. This planet is doomed.
I don't have good theories on that, I just don't.

Well, Russia still has a GDP per capita that is about 1/4 that in Canada.

Maybe at some point, it'll become more clear that the Russian leadership has done nothing but disservice to the general Russian population for over 100 years and the blame should be placed on them, not windmills.

 

[skepticalbip]

Unless he has gone totally off his rocker, which is possible, he will not move against any NATO nation. If he does, I believe the Russian military would depose him.

I doubt that the Russian military would do anything other than that dictated by Putin. Putin rules by fear. Anyone in a leadership position who opposes him is eliminated. Soldiers follow orders and the higher ranking officers who may silently oppose Putin wouldn't dare overtly express disagreement... They are well aware of what happens to those who do.

Putin is backed by the military and the oligarchs, and he is the lead oligarch. The Russian military is well aware of the dire consequences of attacking NATO, and the oligarchs do not want to see all the wealth and assets that they looted from the Russian people go up in mushroom clouds. Even before this debacle began, there were press reports of dissension in the Russian military over any Ukraine invasion. Putin is not invincible.

Putin controls the military and oligarchs. It is quite similar to Kim in N. Korea. Kim controls the military and the elite. Kim gives the command and no general dares to object.

 

[pood]

Unless he has gone totally off his rocker, which is possible, he will not move against any NATO nation. If he does, I believe the Russian military would depose him.

I doubt that the Russian military would do anything other than that dictated by Putin. Putin rules by fear. Anyone in a leadership position who opposes him is eliminated. Soldiers follow orders and the higher ranking officers who may silently oppose Putin wouldn't dare overtly express disagreement... They are well aware of what happens to those who do.

Putin is backed by the military and the oligarchs, and he is the lead oligarch. The Russian military is well aware of the dire consequences of attacking NATO, and the oligarchs do not want to see all the wealth and assets that they looted from the Russian people go up in mushroom clouds. Even before this debacle began, there were press reports of dissension in the Russian military over any Ukraine invasion. Putin is not invincible.

Putin controls the military and oligarchs. It is quite similar to Kim in N. Korea. Kim controls the military and the elite. Kim gives the command and no general dares to object.

The military has the guns, not Putin. There have been plenty of strongmen deposed by their militaries.