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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Harry Bosch

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As calls grow louder in the European Union for a ban on Schengen visas for Russians, thousands of Russian tourists are using Finland as a transit country to the West.
Mad Vlad has made a point of keeping the Russian middle class ignorant about and insulated from the war in Ukraine. He’ll muster up Russia’s poor to go to war. Meanwhile life goes on for the rest of Russia, including vacationing in the EU.
The west isn’t going to persuade Vlad to stop his evil ways anytime soon. We need to employ the Russian middle class in our efforts.
I'm not going to lie. This is a tough issue for me. Watch this piece of shit Russian tourist harass Ukrainian refugees in Austria:



It's so unfair that Russian civilians go to foreign countries for vacation; while Ukrainian civilians go to foreign countries to survive. But I'm thinking that maybe visiting other countries will show some Russians how much they are losing by living in a dictatorship that is constantly at war.
 

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Seems that another major problem for Russian military is social media posting. This is on level with Jan 6 rioters putting up videos of themselves in the capitol.

Apparently a Russian propagandist posted pictures of himself visiting a Wagner Group base in Donbas. In one of the pictures you can see the sign on the building that included the address. That was enough to program coordinates for some HIMARS missiles, and now one less mercenary base.

 

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As calls grow louder in the European Union for a ban on Schengen visas for Russians, thousands of Russian tourists are using Finland as a transit country to the West.
Mad Vlad has made a point of keeping the Russian middle class ignorant about and insulated from the war in Ukraine. He’ll muster up Russia’s poor to go to war. Meanwhile life goes on for the rest of Russia, including vacationing in the EU.
The west isn’t going to persuade Vlad to stop his evil ways anytime soon. We need to employ the Russian middle class in our efforts.
I'm not going to lie. This is a tough issue for me. Watch this piece of shit Russian tourist harass Ukrainian refugees in Austria:



It's so unfair that Russian civilians go to foreign countries for vacation; while Ukrainian civilians go to foreign countries to survive. But I'm thinking that maybe visiting other countries will show some Russians how much they are losing by living in a dictatorship that is constantly at war.

Does Finland not have laws against racial discrimination? If so, I'd think they could use this footage to detain, deport and prevent her from returning to the country with the obligatory public statement that "We do not tolerate racism in our country". I'm ignorant of Finland laws so my presumption can be wrong.
 

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Seems that another major problem for Russian military is social media posting. This is on level with Jan 6 rioters putting up videos of themselves in the capitol.

Apparently a Russian propagandist posted pictures of himself visiting a Wagner Group base in Donbas. In one of the pictures you can see the sign on the building that included the address. That was enough to program coordinates for some HIMARS missiles, and now one less mercenary base.

By default, most phone cameras append GPS latitude and longitude data to photos in the EXIF data. A photo need not include a street sign or landmark in order to reveal the precise location at which it was taken.

Few conscripts would be aware of this, much less sufficiently savvy to delete that EXIF data before posting to social media.
 

marc

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Seems that another major problem for Russian military is social media posting. This is on level with Jan 6 rioters putting up videos of themselves in the capitol.

Apparently a Russian propagandist posted pictures of himself visiting a Wagner Group base in Donbas. In one of the pictures you can see the sign on the building that included the address. That was enough to program coordinates for some HIMARS missiles, and now one less mercenary base.

By default, most phone cameras append GPS latitude and longitude data to photos in the EXIF data. A photo need not include a street sign or landmark in order to reveal the precise location at which it was taken.

Few conscripts would be aware of this, much less sufficiently savvy to delete that EXIF data before posting to social media.
Good point. The spirit of “Loose lips sink ships” is way more applicable today than in WWII. Soldiers need to get that drilled into their heads, or something else will do the drilling
 

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I can't read the article as it's behind a paywall, but the fact that Russia has doubled down on Kherson tells to me that they're planning on keeping it rather than stranding their soldiers. Ukraine first hit the bridges almost a month ago, but hasn't been able to capitalize (except perhaps by stopping further Russian advances). Russia has at least four ferries over the river as confirmed by satellite footage, possibly even more, and the railway bridge may still be operational.

I think if Ukraine doesn't get back Kherson, it will eventually lose the entire South and that leaves also the supply lines to Zaporizhzhia city vulnerable which might mean losing also swathes of land in the East.

EDIT: And there's less than four weeks to the "referendum". ISW even speculates that it might happen sooner, but because the Russian Duma won't come into session until September 12, I'm not sure if the timeline for annexation has changed even if they skip the referendum or replace it with "door-to-door surveys" or whatever the fuck.
 
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Harry Bosch

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Seems that another major problem for Russian military is social media posting. This is on level with Jan 6 rioters putting up videos of themselves in the capitol.

Apparently a Russian propagandist posted pictures of himself visiting a Wagner Group base in Donbas. In one of the pictures you can see the sign on the building that included the address. That was enough to program coordinates for some HIMARS missiles, and now one less mercenary base.

Great news. I can understand Russian civilians getting drafted and forced to fight for Putler. But the Wagner group are just trained killers deliberately serving in conflicts in order to rape, kill, and get paid. Fuck them. They should all be worm food as far as I'm concerned.
 

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Seems like Ukraine is gearing up for trying to retake Kherson, with damaging the bridges over the nearby Dneiper River. That will make it easier to besiege that city.

Kherson is the farthest-west major location that Russia has reached in this war. Russia has a target for westward expansion: Transnistria, a little strip on the eastern boarder of Moldova, ruled by a breakaway pro-Russian regime.

The area that Russia has conquered so far is most of 18th-cy. Novorossiya, "New Russia", where lots of Russian colonists were invited in. The rest of Ukraine was formerly part of the Kievan Rus and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
 

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Novorossiya is roughly Kharkiv (Kharkov) - Luhansk (Lugansk) - Donetsk - Mariupol - Kherson - Odesa (Odessa), and also Crimea. That's eastern and southern Ukraine, the more pro-Russian parts of the country. Central, northern, and western Ukraine are the more ethnically Ukrainian parts of Ukraine.
 

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I am really looking forward to the New Year's Day fireworks display over Crimea this year.
I hope it'll be just an ordinary day. :)

What's most interesting about the hits in Crimea is that we still don't have definitive idea how they're done.
 

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Another base goes boom, boom. This time in Nova Kakhovka on the west bank of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast. Footage of the aftermath here:
 

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Pavel Filatyev knew the consequences of what he was saying. The ex-paratrooper understood he was risking prison, that he would be called a traitor and would be shunned by his former comrades-in-arms. His own mother had urged him to flee Russia while he still could. He said it anyway.

“I don’t see justice in this war. I don’t see truth here,” he said over a tucked-away cafe table in the Moscow financial district. It was his first time sitting down in person with a journalist since returning from the war in Ukraine.

“I am not afraid to fight in war. But I need to feel justice, to understand that what I’m doing is right. And I believe that this is all failing not only because the government has stolen everything, but because we, Russians, don’t feel that what we are doing is right.”

Two weeks ago, Filatyev went on to his VKontakte social media page and published a 141-page bombshell: a day-by-day description of how his paratrooper unit was sent to mainland Ukraine from Crimea, entered Kherson and captured the seaport, and dug in under heavy artillery fire for more than a month near Mykolaiv – and then how he eventually was wounded and evacuated from the conflict with an eye infection.

By then, he was convinced he had to expose the rot at the core of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “We were sitting under artillery fire by Mykolaiv,” he said. “At that point I already thought that we’re just out here doing bullshit, what the fuck do we need this war for? And I really had this thought: ‘God, if I survive, then I’ll do everything that I can to stop this.’”

He spent 45 days writing his memoirs from the conflict, breaking an omerta under which even the word war has been banished in public. “I simply can’t stay quiet any longer, even though I know that I probably won’t change anything, and maybe I’ve acted foolishly to get myself in so much trouble,” says Filatyev, his fingers shaking from stress as he lit another cigarette.

His memoir, ZOV, is named for the tactical markings painted on Russian army vehicles that have been adopted as a pro-war symbol in Russia. Until now, there has been no more detailed, voluntary account from a Russian soldier participating in the invasion of Ukraine. Extracts were published in Russia’s independent press, while Filatyev appeared via video for a televised interview on TV Rain.

“It’s very important that someone became the first to speak out,” said Vladimir Osechkin, the head of the human rights network Gulagu.net, who helped Filatyev leave Russia earlier this week. That also made Filatyev the first soldier known to have fled Russia due to opposition to the war. “And it’s opening a Pandora’s box.”
 

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Another base goes boom, boom. This time in Nova Kakhovka on the west bank of the Dnipro in Kherson oblast. Footage of the aftermath here:


Report says about 100 Russians killed, including commanders of the 2nd army, and 20 FSB officers.

 

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I wish they would put the date instead of “this morning.” I watch these and then find out it was 5 days ago and the same report that was already in the news.


Also - thse things are loud!!
 

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Seen elsewhere:
Alexander Dugin's daughter has been killed in what looks like a car bomb attack in Moscow. Dugin was probably the target and it suggests to me infighting as Putin's lieutenants jockey for position.

Unless it was arranged by Putin (in which case why not use formal powers?) he needs to get a grip and have a purge *soon*

If high level assassinations occur without the approval of the strongman, his influence is done for.
 

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Russian tanks in Kyiv!!!..... or... well.. what is left of them.

Putin likes having his military parades with lots of tanks and weapons. So Kyiv is giving him what he wants, a display in the streets of a lot of wrecked russian military vehicles.

 

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Seen elsewhere:
Alexander Dugin's daughter has been killed in what looks like a car bomb attack in Moscow. Dugin was probably the target and it suggests to me infighting as Putin's lieutenants jockey for position.

Unless it was arranged by Putin (in which case why not use formal powers?) he needs to get a grip and have a purge *soon*

If high level assassinations occur without the approval of the strongman, his influence is done for.
Another report states the daughter was driving the car Dugan was expected to be in, but he was following in another car and saw the explosion. This is sort of a bad TV drama cliche in real life.

The immediate question is, if this was a political assassination attempt, why this guy? Alexander Dugin is considered to be a kind of Steve Bannon character in Putin's rise to power, but he has no military function. There are plenty of calls on Russian social media blaming Ukraine for the attack, which is probably least likely. The idea of a Ukrainian hit squad sent to Moscow to target Dugin is absurd.

It's certainly not Putin's style, who has a history of killing people with nerve agents. There's no end of ways Dugin could have been murdered which would cause less turmoil in the Kremlin, so thinking Putin was behind this doesn't really pan out.
 

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The area that Russia has conquered so far is most of 18th-cy. Novorossiya, "New Russia", where lots of Russian colonists were invited in. The rest of Ukraine was formerly part of the Kievan Rus and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Kievan Rus is technically Russia. Ukrainian nazi have persistent linguistic butthurt about that.
So I agree, Russia should take back what was and IS Russia and leave nazi scam to Poland. In the end there will be no independent Ukraine left. There will be historical area called Ukraine which, in case you did not know, literally means "Outskirts" (of Russian Empire)
 

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Well, we just don't know yet. It does sound to me like infighting.
keep rationalizing the fact that you support terrorists.
I don't like to see anyone killed. But very hard to cry any tears over Darya Dugina. She is just as bad as her father. She advocates for the killing of Ukrainians. She wanted a final solution for Ukraine. She and her father are imperialist fascists.
 

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Well, we just don't know yet. It does sound to me like infighting.
keep rationalizing the fact that you support terrorists.
I don't like to see anyone killed. But very hard to cry any tears over Darya Dugina. She is just as bad as her father. She advocates for the killing of Ukrainians. She wanted a final solution for Ukraine. She and her father are imperialist fascists.
You have proof of that?
 

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It's so unfair that Russian civilians go to foreign countries for vacation; while Ukrainian civilians go to foreign countries to survive.
Sure, and the fact that Eastern Ukraine ukrainians (!!!) have not had any opportunity to travel anywhere except Russia for 8 years does not bother you.
 

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Well, we just don't know yet. It does sound to me like infighting.
keep rationalizing the fact that you support terrorists.
I don't like to see anyone killed. But very hard to cry any tears over Darya Dugina. She is just as bad as her father. She advocates for the killing of Ukrainians. She wanted a final solution for Ukraine. She and her father are imperialist fascists.
You have proof of that?
No I don't. The media is reporting that she was a very strong advocate for the Russian invasion. But I haven't seen any direct quotes by her yet. Clearly the father was a bad dude. His statements can be found in the internet. And he is directly responsible for pushing Putin's invasion. I can see many Russians wanting him dead for the problems caused by the war.
 

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It's so unfair that Russian civilians go to foreign countries for vacation; while Ukrainian civilians go to foreign countries to survive.
Sure, and the fact that Eastern Ukraine ukrainians (!!!) have not had any opportunity to travel anywhere except Russia for 8 years does not bother you.
You have proof of that?
 

barbos

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It's so unfair that Russian civilians go to foreign countries for vacation; while Ukrainian civilians go to foreign countries to survive.
Sure, and the fact that Eastern Ukraine ukrainians (!!!) have not had any opportunity to travel anywhere except Russia for 8 years does not bother you.
You have proof of that?
Proof of what? that DNR/LNR were not recognized by EU, hence were not able to travel there, unless they get russian passport of course :)
You really need to educate yourself in matters.
 

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It's so unfair that Russian civilians go to foreign countries for vacation; while Ukrainian civilians go to foreign countries to survive.
Sure, and the fact that Eastern Ukraine ukrainians (!!!) have not had any opportunity to travel anywhere except Russia for 8 years does not bother you.
You have proof of that?
Proof of what? that DNR/LNR were not recognized by EU, hence were not able to travel there, unless they get russian passport of course :)
You really need to educate yourself in matters.
So your "proof" is a bald assertion. Got it
 

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I un-ignored Barbos temporarily to see what propaganda was sent out this morning. Nothing unexpected. "Ukraine is really Russia" and "they're Nazis." Gotta suck to see the country you've done so much to promote getting their asses so thoroughly kicked by Ukrainian patriots.
 

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The area that Russia has conquered so far is most of 18th-cy. Novorossiya, "New Russia", where lots of Russian colonists were invited in. The rest of Ukraine was formerly part of the Kievan Rus and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Kievan Rus is technically Russia. Ukrainian nazi have persistent linguistic butthurt about that.
So I agree, Russia should take back what was and IS Russia and leave nazi scam to Poland. In the end there will be no independent Ukraine left. There will be historical area called Ukraine which, in case you did not know, literally means "Outskirts" (of Russian Empire)
I thought this thing was over months ago. And now Crimea is getting attacked?

Also if Ukraine = Nazis and Ukraine = Russia...
 

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The idea of a Ukrainian hit squad sent to Moscow to target Dugin is absurd.
Why? they have been doing that lately and the last 8 years (in Donbas) really.
If you say so.

If Russia's internal security police are on the same par as the Russian Army, it would be possible, but still not probable. Why would Ukraine waste resources on a low value target, so far away, when they have better targets within arms reach?

A more likely scenario is a group of anti-war Russians have come together to fight Putin and Dugan was the softest target close to Putin.
 

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The area that Russia has conquered so far is most of 18th-cy. Novorossiya, "New Russia", where lots of Russian colonists were invited in. The rest of Ukraine was formerly part of the Kievan Rus and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Kievan Rus is technically Russia. Ukrainian nazi have persistent linguistic butthurt about that.
So I agree, Russia should take back what was and IS Russia and leave nazi scam to Poland. In the end there will be no independent Ukraine left. There will be historical area called Ukraine which, in case you did not know, literally means "Outskirts" (of Russian Empire)
I thought this thing was over months ago. And now Crimea is getting attacked?

Also if Ukraine = Nazis and Ukraine = Russia...
...then Nazi = Poland.

Russian logic.
 

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But regardless, very hard to feel sorry for her. Karma's a bitch
I don't know much about the guy and nothing about her except what I learned today.
She was merely working for her dad who was an intended target.

Barbos may not know much about Dugin, but he is the so-called ultranationalist "architect" of the Ukraine war. His influence on Putin's thinking is so strong that he has also been called "Putin's brain", "Putin's Rasputin", and "the Putin Whisperer" by western critics. Many of the talking points about Russia and Ukraine that barbos parrots here come from the rhetoric of this man. He also speaks excellent English and has been interviewed in western sources for years now. Like any Putin crony, Dugin is a very rich man. He and his daughter have come under US sanctions for their role in supporting the invasion of Ukraine. Dugina herself has been a leading propagandist for the lie that the Bucha atrocities were a fabrication of Western propaganda. I would not be surprised to learn that she and her father were targeted by terrorists in Russia, although those terrorists might belong to any extreme political faction that opposes what Putin is doing to Russia as well as Ukraine.

Here is a 5-minute Youtube video of a 60 Minute report on the man and his role in Russian politics:

 

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The area that Russia has conquered so far is most of 18th-cy. Novorossiya, "New Russia", where lots of Russian colonists were invited in. The rest of Ukraine was formerly part of the Kievan Rus and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Kievan Rus is technically Russia. Ukrainian nazi have persistent linguistic butthurt about that.
So I agree, Russia should take back what was and IS Russia and leave nazi scam to Poland. In the end there will be no independent Ukraine left. There will be historical area called Ukraine which, in case you did not know, literally means "Outskirts" (of Russian Empire)
When Russia occupied Poland, they also said that Polish is just a dialect of Russian, that Poland isn't a real country, and all the same things that Russian propaganda is now saying about Ukraine.

Different century, same old bulshit. If anything, it's Russia that's a fictional country that should be split to 5 or 10 different nations.
 

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But regardless, very hard to feel sorry for her. Karma's a bitch
I don't know much about the guy and nothing about her except what I learned today.
She was merely working for her dad who was an intended target.
Dugin was a fascist and imperialist asshole. While I don't condone assassinations, her daughter was working for him and spewing the same propaganda, so I'm not too sad about her. Besides, Dugin himself thought that to make Russia great, it doesn't matter how much blood is spilled or how many people are murdered, so his daughter ending up dead is perfectly in line with his philosophy.
 

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It's so unfair that Russian civilians go to foreign countries for vacation; while Ukrainian civilians go to foreign countries to survive.
Sure, and the fact that Eastern Ukraine ukrainians (!!!) have not had any opportunity to travel anywhere except Russia for 8 years does not bother you.
You have proof of that?
Proof of what? that DNR/LNR were not recognized by EU, hence were not able to travel there, unless they get russian passport of course :)
You really need to educate yourself in matters.
The fake "people's republics" were not the same as Eastern Ukraine. They were only a small part.

And in any case, the reason why they were stuck was Russian invasion. People from Kharkiv or Severodonetsk had exactly the same opportunities to travel to EU as everyone else in Ukraine.
 
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