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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Jayjay said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
Putin tried this ‘on the cheap’ and doesn’t remotely have enough of a force mobilized to push through to Kyyv without Ukrainians being very soft and giving up.

Now he is in a tough place because he won’t want to give up and global support of Ukraine has emboldened Ukraine. Putin is already close to a stalemate without serious escalation via jet bombings. And it appears the Russian people themselves are not lockstep in this operation.

Had Russia only isolated his new republics, he might have gotten away with it, but he and his military appeared to completely misread Ukraine and even Russia on this.
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In all fairness, it's only been a few days.

For Putin, the ideal scenario would have been to take over Kyiv in the first few days and cut the head of the enemy. But he can probably keep up the offensive for at least a couple of weeks before the pressure back home becomes intolerable. He can even win without occupying Kyiv, as long as he can get all the other cities he eventually wants to annex: Kharkiv (already fallen based on some reports), Mariupol, Odessa, etc.

But who knows the mind of a madman?

We're now already past the "peak outrage" from international community. In the coming weeks and months, Putin will wrap up his campaign, force Ukraine into some sort of submission either via ceasefire or by capturing the government and killing Zelensky, and crank up his propaganda machine and counter-sanctions to sow divisions within Europe and US. I have no high hopes for the resolve of the western nations in face of this crazy person.
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Maybe. But I'm not sensing that Ukraine is anywhere near wanting a "submission". There is nowhere for them to go. If the Russians submit, retreat, they lose nothing but a little pride. They are not under threat. If the Ukrainians submit: they lose their country, their way of life, and many will be murdered.
 
Putin really has no response to the economic cascade of sanctions from the rest of the world--both large and small. After the Europeans finally agreed to remove major Russian banks from SWIFT, the only thing he could do was play the nuclear card. That's scary and stupid, because a miscalculation could actually end up in a global apocalypse. But Putin's mental stability is seriously in doubt, and that has to worry the people around him, especially his Security Council who were forced into that humiliating staged performance a few days ago.

Putin's generals can't be happy about the mess in Ukraine right now. They were ordered in, but the assumption was a quick takeover and pacification--a reuniting of Russia and Ukraine. According to Putin's doctrine, Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia would then form a happy fraternal society--the nucleus of a powerful return to regional dominance. Instead, the military is bruised and bleeding as they resort to increasingly atrocious attacks on the recalcitrant civilian population. This mess was all predictable and predicted before they were ordered in.

I agree with Elixir that Poland, and possibly Lithuania, would have been next on the agenda--the establishment of a land corridor to Kaliningrad (Konigsberg). At this point, any plans Putin had for "next move" have likely been scrapped. He will be lucky to stay in power much longer if real economic hardship persists. Protests are growing and there appears to be a run on the banks.

Video Appears To Capture Russian Panic Over Impending Bank Blockade
 
Copernicus said:
At this point, any plans Putin had for "next move" have likely been scrapped. He will be lucky to stay in power much longer if real economic hardship persists. Protests are growing and there appears to be a run on the banks.
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That is not his style. Putin would rather die than be silenced.
 
Global schadenfreude ensues, as perhaps today only, it sucks to be the richest man in the world.
I agree with Jayjay that Pootey can probably keep this up for weeks or even months. He will probably prevail eventually in one way or another. But even his best case scenario now, is a lot worse than what he was expecting. The myth, the legend, the enduring story of the Russian Superhero … all that is severely tarnished now, and probably beyond repair.
 

A Team Of American And British Special Forces Veterans Are Preparing To Join Ukraine’s Fight Against Russia​

The group, composed of six US citizens, three Brits, and a German, are NATO-trained and experienced in close combat and counterterrorism. They want to be among the first to officially join the new International Legion of the Territorial Defense of Ukraine that Zelensky announced on Sunday, according to text messages reviewed by BuzzFeed News. Two former American infantry officers are also making plans to come to Ukraine to provide “leadership” for the group, the Army veteran recruiter said.
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I don't know how much good they'll be able to do unless legions more join up. There's lots of able bodied vets around the world. But kudos to these vets. I expect a lot more will join if they hear about this, especially if it finds its way to mainstream media, which it probably will, though probably not right wing media. I don't know how they'd spin "veterans," one of their favorite pArTiOt props, with supporting Ukraine against Putin.
 
Elixir said:
Global schadenfreude ensues, as perhaps today only, it sucks to be the richest man in the world.
I agree with Jayjay that Pootey can probably keep this up for weeks or even months. He will probably prevail eventually in one way or another. But even his best case scenario now, is a lot worse than what he was expecting. The myth, the legend, the enduring story of the Russian Superhero … all that is severely tarnished now, and probably beyond repair.
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Well, I'm far from an expert. And may be incredibly wrong. But it seems to me that Putin dosn't have a long leash here. He's already threatening the west with nuclear war due to the "sanctions". His control of the media is overrated. There are many Russians talking daily to their family members/friends in Ukraine. The real story is getting out. Secondly, clearly the Russian troops aren't as motivated. They seem to be holding back a little. The guy offering them a tow back to Russia was incredibly funny. The Russians were laughing as well. There have been many reports of generals warning Putin that it isn't going well. And we're only 4 days in. Putin offered talks, Zelensky told him to fuck off. Putin threw a fit. Really complained. Zelensky said okay, let's talk. Putin insisted on talks in Belurus. Zelensky told him to fuck off again as that country belongs to Russia. Putin again threw a big fit. Appears desperate for talks. Zelensky relented, but at a place of his choosing. Again, there seems to be a desperate madness in Putin. I don't think that he has a long time.


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Angry Floof said:

A Team Of American And British Special Forces Veterans Are Preparing To Join Ukraine’s Fight Against Russia​

The group, composed of six US citizens, three Brits, and a German, are NATO-trained and experienced in close combat and counterterrorism. They want to be among the first to officially join the new International Legion of the Territorial Defense of Ukraine that Zelensky announced on Sunday, according to text messages reviewed by BuzzFeed News. Two former American infantry officers are also making plans to come to Ukraine to provide “leadership” for the group, the Army veteran recruiter said.
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I don't know how much good they'll be able to do unless legions more join up. There's lots of able bodied vets around the world. But kudos to these vets. I expect a lot more will join if they hear about this, especially if it finds its way to mainstream media, which it probably will, though probably not right wing media. I don't know how they'd spin "veterans," one of their favorite pArTiOt props, with supporting Ukraine against Putin.
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Here is Zelensky's plea that inspired the vets to respond:

Ukraine appeals for foreign volunteers to join fight against Russia

“This is the beginning of a war against Europe, against European structures, against democracy, against basic human rights, against a global order of law, rules and peaceful coexistence,” the statement said.

“Anyone who wants to join the defence of Ukraine, Europe and the world can come and fight side by side with the Ukrainians against the Russian war criminals.”
 
Elixir said:
Global schadenfreude ensues, as perhaps today only, it sucks to be the richest man in the world.
I agree with Jayjay that Pootey can probably keep this up for weeks or even months. He will probably prevail eventually in one way or another. But even his best case scenario now, is a lot worse than what he was expecting. The myth, the legend, the enduring story of the Russian Superhero … all that is severely tarnished now, and probably beyond repair.
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Things are moving much more quickly on the economic front than anyone expected. Biden had predicted that there would likely be no immediate impact. However, it isn't just protests anymore that threaten Putin. It is panic as people worry about their financial security. There seems to be a great deal of anxiety in Moscow, for example.

Moscow braces for market meltdown Monday as new sanctions hit​

 
Jayjay said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
Kharkiv (already fallen based on some reports) …
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Who really knows, but the latest reports are that Kharkiv has fended off the Russians, and that captured Russians are saying that basically none of them wanted to do this. Let’s hope. Growing indications are that this is turning into a debacle for Putin and the Russian military cannot be happy. And they’ve got the guns that they can just as easily train on Putin as on Ukrainians.
 
I'd dare to say "this is different". The EU, China, everyone are acting differently to this invasion. It is as unified as one would expect a multilateral response would be to a substantial natural disaster. That almost never happens. The reaction against Russia is unilateral, swift, and full of condemnation. Because well... it is a completely unjustified military action.

There is no viable excuse for Russia's military movements against Ukraine as a nation. Putin went from incursion of the black from the gray, to flat out 19th century land grab.

We'll see if this can last, but Putin appears to have completely dropped the ball here. I mentioned him playing "good chess" in the to be annexation of more Ukrainian territory, and I think it would have been allowed by enough nations, but with sanctions from others. Instead of playing his usual chess, Putin just lost his mind. I think he was starting to believe he was invincible, like the Neocons in Iraq.
 
pood said:
Jayjay said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
Kharkiv (already fallen based on some reports) …
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Who really knows, but the latest reports are that Kharkiv has fended off the Russians, and that captured Russians are saying that basically none of them wanted to do this. Let’s hope. Growing indications are that this is turning into a debacle for Putin and the Russian military cannot be happy. And they’ve got the guns that they can just as easily train on Putin as on Ukrainians.
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Definitely hoping. Your description is how it looks from where I'm sitting, too. I keep hearing stories of captured soldiers having no idea why they were attacking Ukraine and that they didn't want to do it. I've heard someone say that wars hinge as much on who's got the higher morale as anything else.
 
Harry Bosch said:
Elixir said:
Global schadenfreude ensues, as perhaps today only, it sucks to be the richest man in the world.
I agree with Jayjay that Pootey can probably keep this up for weeks or even months. He will probably prevail eventually in one way or another. But even his best case scenario now, is a lot worse than what he was expecting. The myth, the legend, the enduring story of the Russian Superhero … all that is severely tarnished now, and probably beyond repair.
Click to expand...
Well, I'm far from an expert. And may be incredibly wrong. But it seems to me that Putin dosn't have a long leash here. He's already threatening the west with nuclear war due to the "sanctions". His control of the media is overrated. There are many Russians talking daily to their family members/friends in Ukraine. The real story is getting out. Secondly, clearly the Russian troops aren't as motivated. They seem to be holding back a little. The guy offering them a tow back to Russia was incredibly funny. The Russians were laughing as well. There have been many reports of generals warning Putin that it isn't going well. And we're only 4 days in. Putin offered talks, Zelensky told him to fuck off. Putin threw a fit. Really complained. Zelensky said okay, let's talk. Putin insisted on talks in Belurus. Zelensky told him to fuck off again as that country belongs to Russia. Putin again threw a big fit. Appears desperate for talks. Zelensky relented, but at a place of his choosing. Again, there seems to be a desperate madness in Putin. I don't think that he has a long time.
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Putin is deeply scared by the failed Yeltsin coup, and he used a portion of that to justify 'Making Russia Great Again', and he might be desperate to end this diplomatically, but he needs to something to show for the effort. And Ukraine isn't going to give them anything. I could see a demand for payment for Crimea.
 
Actually, just to be accurate, it was a failed coup against Gorbachev that Yeltsin prevented by standing on a tank and telling Russian soldiers to go home, which they did. But in the end it amounted to Gorby’s ouster anyway, as Yeltsin, the elected president of Russian SSR, simply got together with his compatriots in the other SSRs and dissolved the whole miserable shebang.
 
Then again, as I stupidly failed to recall, there was an unsuccessful coup attempt againt Yeltsin in 1993, so maybe Jimmy Higgins was referring to that.
 
pood said:
Then again, as I stupidly failed to recall, there was an unsuccessful coup attempt againt Yeltsin in 1993, so maybe Jimmy Higgins was referring to that.
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In some ways, one can sympathize with Putin. It's not paranoia if they're really after you. Being the head of Russia has historically been a near guarantee that somebody is always after you.
 
So we have plenty of small arms, Javelins, and Stingers going into or are in Ukrainian hands. Perhaps a somewhat disheartened Russian military. A feared collapse of the ruble. Protests in Russia. Internet service in Ukraine (Supposedly Starlink is up). Seemingly Putin can't even phone a friend, save for an asshat in Iran or Burma.
We need someone within Putin's inner circle to make a public announcement of disobedience now. And I hope there is a chain of sanity between Putin and his nukes.
 
www.bbc.com

BP to offload stake in Rosneft amid Ukraine conflict

Norwegian energy giant Equinor also says it will start to divest its joint ventures in Russia.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
BP is to offload its 19.75% stake in Russian state-owned oil firm Rosneft after Russia's "act of aggression in Ukraine".
The oil giant had come under pressure from the UK government to make the move since Thursday's invasion.
It has held the shareholding in the Russian company since 2013.
BP chief executive Bernard Looney has resigned "with immediate effect" from the Rosneft board, as has fellow BP-nominated director Bob Dudley.
Rosneft said thirty years of successful cooperation had been ruined and blamed BP's decision on "unprecedented political pressure", according to reports from Russian news agencies.
Mr Looney had been on the Rosneft board since 2020, alongside its chairman Igor Sechin, who is a close friend and ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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