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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

The point is not why, the point is that the reason is Russia's own import ban and the fact that the two countries are in customs union. Ukraine and Russia are not in one (although they were planning to, but the 2004 revolution put that on hold).
What are you talking about? You jump from one country to another.
Ukraine did have large degree of integration with Russia even without customs union.
One of the problems were different standards on pretty much everything.
Yes, Russia was slowly moving toward Europian standards but it was not even close to be aligned.

The protests got violent because of the police crackdown
Yes, because of nazi which were invited by Nuland.
Would Yanukovich have been elected if he hadn't promised his backers to continue EU integration
OK, so what?


None of that sounds bad. And of course if a smaller country joins a larger economic area, the larger market dominates. Same would be true if Ukraine had joined Russia.
Even nazis thought it sounded bad - refused to sign it.
 
This is simply bullshit and you know it. Nothing Ukraine did justified the invasion. Not now, and not 8 years ago when Russia took Crimea.
No, it's not bullshit. Bullshit is what you suggest.
Nuland released nazi-themed chaos in Ukraine. Russia is justified to fix it.
Way more than NATO in Yugoslavia. Problem of course is that Russia is small and alone in it.
Funny how nobody in Ukraine can see this "nazi-themed chaos" that Putin and his ilk are trying to sell. The main source of chaos is Russia's annexation of Crimea and support of armed rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk.
No, it started earlier, 800 years earlier :)
 
Having underestimated the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian strength of will to defend their homeland, having turned Russia into an international pariah and desperately threatened the world with nuclear warfare, Vladimir Putin seems to have one objective left to him. His vaunted military has failed to take a single major population center in Ukraine, and their offensive is largely stalled on the ground. However, Russia has kept a third of its forces in reserve and has yet to obliterate population centers in quite the same way it did in Chechnya or Syria. Putin desperately needs some kind of victory that he can tout to the Russian public as justifying the incredible sacrifice he is making them pay. The prize he seems to have in mind is the capital of the country: the historic city of Kiev that Russians revere as their historic homeland. For that, he needs overwhelming force once and for all to devastate the city. And he will likely kill all of the Ukrainian leadership, especially including President Zelensky, who has rallied his people and become something of an international hero. He is now sending a force to crush Kiev:

40-mile Russian convoy threatens Kyiv; shelling intensifies​

The west really needs to get more Javelins into Ukraine (and Stingers). US intel (which has been 100% accurate so far during this invasion) is predicting that if the Russians take Kyiv, that they will assassinate Zelensky and the other members of his government. Russians can get pretty uptight when someone so successfully thumbs their nose at the Nazis in the Kremlin.
Do they really need to blow up the convoy or inhibit the road and crossings? Funny how the anti-tank weapons were what Trump help up providing the Ukrainians... I mean us providing Ukraine the money to buy them.
 
A good thing about this invasion is that it might lead to the woke pacifist environmentalist hipsters realize that they are living in a fantasy world. If you want peace in the world the west (the democratic part of the world) needs to prioritise anything that generates wealth and power. It's the only way to to keep the world from sliding into dictatorship. Or to put it another way, if we truly care about the environment and gender equality, we need to prioritise the spread and stability of democracy and democratic ideals in the world. And that requires money, power and weapons.

It's not that trans rights don't matter. It's simply a question of getting the basic right, before we start worrying about the details.

The threat of Russia and China is not trivial.

I think it's beautiful how the Ukraine invasion is bringing EU and Europe together. After decades of impotence and internal bullshit squabbling.
Oh, I agree with you 100%. If the west can stop Russia from taking Ukraine (and not assassinating all their leaders); it could save the world. Obviously, the vast credit would go to the courage and grit of the Ukrainians. But the west has also stepped up dramatically in their economic boycott.
Certainly are, and unfortunately, that'll mean nothing in a siege or full on assault. The initial steps taken globally have put wind in Ukrainian sails, but those winds will die off quickly. Ukraine needs strategic and field assistance very shortly.

One other thought occurred to me was how Putin is screwing Ukraine by staging in Belarus. Belarus is part of the operation, but Ukraine would have issues opening fire at airfields in Belarus as I don't believe they have "officially" joined in this war.
 
Hopefully Biden can clue in those swirling in the Fox News toilet...
Sadly, I don't think that's possible. The US political landscape is a microcosm of the geopolitical one.
The assholes of right wing 'leadership' are so invested in the shit swirling in that toilet, they can't let it go. And their constituents are far too clueless and conditioned by lies (headlined by THE BIG LIE) to ever wake up to the actual threat to their precious "freedumb". It's going to be up to the rest of us to save them from themselves, if that's even possible.

Do they really need to blow up the convoy or inhibit the road and crossings?
That's what I was wondering. From the pictures I've seen, that convoy looks like the stupidest thing ever. Is it not vulnerable to gridlock? Seems like a few well placed kabooms could wipe the whole pageant off the stage.
 
Having underestimated the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian strength of will to defend their homeland, having turned Russia into an international pariah and desperately threatened the world with nuclear warfare, Vladimir Putin seems to have one objective left to him. His vaunted military has failed to take a single major population center in Ukraine, and their offensive is largely stalled on the ground. However, Russia has kept a third of its forces in reserve and has yet to obliterate population centers in quite the same way it did in Chechnya or Syria. Putin desperately needs some kind of victory that he can tout to the Russian public as justifying the incredible sacrifice he is making them pay. The prize he seems to have in mind is the capital of the country: the historic city of Kiev that Russians revere as their historic homeland. For that, he needs overwhelming force once and for all to devastate the city. And he will likely kill all of the Ukrainian leadership, especially including President Zelensky, who has rallied his people and become something of an international hero. He is now sending a force to crush Kiev:

40-mile Russian convoy threatens Kyiv; shelling intensifies​

The west really needs to get more Javelins into Ukraine (and Stingers). US intel (which has been 100% accurate so far during this invasion) is predicting that if the Russians take Kyiv, that they will assassinate Zelensky and the other members of his government. Russians can get pretty uptight when someone so successfully thumbs their nose at the Nazis in the Kremlin.
Do they really need to blow up the convoy or inhibit the road and crossings? Funny how the anti-tank weapons were what Trump help up providing the Ukrainians... I mean us providing Ukraine the money to buy them.
Well, if it were up to me, if I were the local Ukranian constable, I'd politely inspect every vehicle in the convoy. Then I'd allow any vehicles carrying Russian goods to be sold at the market, or vehicles with musicians, athletes, or scientists making the trek to Kyiv to sell their goods and spread joy to the city! Maybe extract a tiny tax from them. But then the rest, I'd do a favor to the world and blow the fuck up.
 

Do they really need to blow up the convoy or inhibit the road and crossings?
That's what I was wondering. From the pictures I've seen, that convoy looks like the stupidest thing ever. Is it not vulnerable to gridlock? Seems like a few well placed kabooms could wipe the whole pageant off the stage.
The key words in your post are "well placed". This is real life, not a video game. Trying to shell a 1-D line is easy. Trying to hit it, much harder. As I noted earlier, I imagine that the Russians have secured crossings for the convoy and Ukrainian access to it are extremely limited. They don't have our military. They don't have the surveillance Russia has, which will allow them to track attempts at the convoy. And their air force lacks the stealth and power to pulverize it. So the bridges, if any, are the key. Ukraine likely can't destroy the convoy, so they need to engineer methods to slow it down.
 
Do they really need to blow up the convoy or inhibit the road and crossings? Funny how the anti-tank weapons were what Trump help up providing the Ukrainians... I mean us providing Ukraine the money to buy them.
Well, if it were up to me, if I were the local Ukranian constable, I'd politely inspect every vehicle in the convoy. Then I'd allow any vehicles carrying Russian goods to be sold at the market, or vehicles with musicians, athletes, or scientists making the trek to Kyiv to sell their goods and spread joy to the city! Maybe extract a tiny tax from them. But then the rest, I'd do a favor to the world and blow the fuck up.
Back in the real world, where the constable is shot and killed...
 
A good thing about this invasion is that it might lead to the woke pacifist environmentalist hipsters realize that they are living in a fantasy world.

I find this a bizarre false dichotomy. Words like “woke” and “cancel culture” are just buzzwords, right-wing virtue signaling that is really intended to convey the idea no one should be questioning entrenched white-supremacist power structures and narratives. I don’t know what a “hipster” is supposed to be these days. Most people are pacifists — it’s monsters like Putin who plunge the world into war. As to environmentalists — well yeah. Because as this war wages, pushed down the list of newspapers and Web headlines is the just-released new report by the IPCC that things are way worse than we thought with respect to climate change, and that portions of the globe are on their way to becoming uninhabitable. I think one can easily oppose the incineration of Ukrainian cities by the Red Nazi in the KKKremlin while also fighting for social justice, and end to all war, and, in particular, fighting against the incineration of the globe by human-induced climate change. Though maybe Putin will be thoughtful enough to launch a nuclear war and solve global warming by plunging us into nuclear winter.
 
A good thing about this invasion is that it might lead to the woke pacifist environmentalist hipsters realize that they are living in a fantasy world.

I find this a bizarre false dichotomy. Words like “woke” and “cancel culture” are just buzzwords, right-wing virtue signaling that is really intended to convey the idea no one should be questioning entrenched white-supremacist power structures and narratives. I don’t know what a “hipster” is supposed to be these days. Most people are pacifists — it’s monsters like Putin who plunge the world into war.
Dr. Zoidberg thinks we should just Great War this and let the Earth burn. This is the problem with peace, the sociopaths try to take what they want, when they want. The question is, how hard are you willing to push to stop them. The US could have laid waste to Russia's gas and oil lines. Russia could have responded by hacking our energy grid, the misery of millions becomes the misery of billions.

Russia is paying an economic price already for their actions. It could become hard to recover from it. And the foot isn't all the way down yet.
 
Stalin made similar demands to Baltic states, and attacked them anyway. That looks very much like "grabbing land left and right"
yeah, before war, not after.
In normal parlance, when you march your army to another country and occupy it, it's not "before war", but simply "war". In case of countries that agreed to Stalin's terms, a very short one. In case of Finland that didn't, a longer one.
After the war Stalin could have literally absorb some of the Eastern Europe into USSR. And you my friend would have been on the list.
He did not. He let mostly communist resistance on soviet occupied territories to form friendly communists government. And that was all of it. US/GB expected he would go further with that army he had in the end, never happened. And you know what? they were projecting, they thought what would we have done in his position and the answer was - we would keep going as far as we can. And this is what is happening now with West/NATO, you keep expanding no matter what.
So I should give Stalin credit for mercifully for not annexing the whole eastern Europe to Soviet Union, and merely turning it into satellite states with puppet governments? Please. But then again, that's what you expect the rest of the world to do about Putin's current war. Look away and be happy that he's only annexing parts of Ukraine (for now) and accept a puppet regime loyal to him in whatever parts he deems too difficult to directly absorb, for now.

And maybe in a couple of years he wants a little bit more.
 
In normal parlance, when you march your army to another country and occupy it, it's not "before war", but simply "war". In case of countries that agreed to Stalin's terms, a very short one. In case of Finland that didn't, a longer one.
original claim was that Stalin grabbed territories AFTER the war.

So I should give Stalin credit for mercifully for not annexing the whole eastern Europe to Soviet Union, and merely turning it into satellite states with puppet governments?
Yes, I think you should give him some credit for that. And a lot of credit for not going further.
Anyway, communists unlike you civilized people were never about grabbing land. They were about their crap about working class revolting by themselves. And Stalin in particular was not that enthusiastic about even that. He was technically a Tsar.
The ones who were more fond of exporting revolution were all expelled and murdered before WW2.
So, I don't know why West keeps insisting on this BS.
 
Tactical vs strategic are defined by yields and method of delivery.
I challenge that definition. "Tactical" makes it sound as if it's not really that big of a deal. But in reality it would be a huge upset to use a weapon that has been used only twice before, almost 80 years ago. A nuke is a nuke, and once one side uses it, no matter how small the yield or "tactical" the delivery, it sets a precedent and soon everyone is lobbing nukes at each other.
 
Do they really need to blow up the convoy or inhibit the road and crossings? Funny how the anti-tank weapons were what Trump help up providing the Ukrainians... I mean us providing Ukraine the money to buy them.
Well, if it were up to me, if I were the local Ukranian constable, I'd politely inspect every vehicle in the convoy. Then I'd allow any vehicles carrying Russian goods to be sold at the market, or vehicles with musicians, athletes, or scientists making the trek to Kyiv to sell their goods and spread joy to the city! Maybe extract a tiny tax from them. But then the rest, I'd do a favor to the world and blow the fuck up.
Back in the real world, where the constable is shot and killed...
Unfortunately, that's the reality in the world when the Russians are in charge. This is why we need to stop imperialism and allow the locals to govern themselves.
 
So I should give Stalin credit for mercifully for not annexing the whole eastern Europe to Soviet Union, and merely turning it into satellite states with puppet governments?
Of course. You should be on your knees, thanking God that Pootey has not yet annexed the entirety of North America to save it from those Canadian fascists!
 
The point is not why, the point is that the reason is Russia's own import ban and the fact that the two countries are in customs union. Ukraine and Russia are not in one (although they were planning to, but the 2004 revolution put that on hold).
What are you talking about? You jump from one country to another.
Ukraine did have large degree of integration with Russia even without customs union.
Let's recap. You said Ukraine can go to EU, as long as it doesn't play the same game as Belarus with taxes (by which I assume custom fees). I pointed out that it doesn't apply, because Belarus is in a customs union with Russia while Ukraine is not. I'm not sure exactly what kind of trade deals Ukraine had with Russia at the time, but I doubt they would have allowed same kind of circumvention of Russian import bans that Belarus is doing.

The protests got violent because of the police crackdown
Yes, because of nazi which were invited by Nuland.
Conspiracy theories. You have absolutely no proof of that, except that Nuland visited Ukraine around the same time.

Would Yanukovich have been elected if he hadn't promised his backers to continue EU integration
OK, so what?
That the demands of the protestors were legitimate. If you get elected promising to do X, and then you do the opposite of X, your voters are likely to be pissed. Or in Ukraine's case, the oligarchs who financed your campaign.

None of that sounds bad. And of course if a smaller country joins a larger economic area, the larger market dominates. Same would be true if Ukraine had joined Russia.
Even nazis thought it sounded bad - refused to sign it.
Nazis! Nazis everywhere!
 
Let's recap. You said Ukraine can go to EU, as long as it doesn't play the same game as Belarus with taxes. I pointed out that it doesn't apply
It still did apply, as far as I know. And that is not what I said.
I said "..... as long as it does not cost Russia money"
There are a lot of ways of it costing Russia money.

Why are we talking about it anyway? I told you what you needed to know. Russia was OK with Ukraine in EU.


Conspiracy theories. You have absolutely no proof of that, except that Nuland visited Ukraine around the same time.
Actually she did not make a secret out of it (meeting with nazis). And protests were winding down before she came there.

That the demands of the protestors were legitimate.
mmm, no. Presidents break promises all the time. And protesters can protests regardless. Zelensky promised to stop war in Eastern Ukraine - broke it.


Nazis! Nazis everywhere!
Yes, that's what happened. Ironic, is not it?
 
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Russian forces destroyed NATO base in Ukraine. It was empty of course, wasted ammunition on destroying buildings which could have been used later. I guess it was a political message.
 
I pointed out that it doesn't apply,
It still did apply, as far as I know.

Why are we talking about it anyway? I told you what you needed to know. Russia was OK with Ukraine in EU.
Putin wasn't fine with it. That's why he pressured Yanukovich to kill the deal, and crack down on the protests.

Conspiracy theories. You have absolutely no proof of that, except that Nuland visited Ukraine around the same time.
Actually she did not make a secret out of it (meeting with nazis). And protests were winding down before she came there.
Not according to for example this news story:

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo.../world-is-watching-u-s-diplomat-tells-ukraine

Nuland arrived in Kyiv only after the crackdown had started. It's true that the protests were winding down and if Yanukovich had done nothing, they might have fizzled out completely, but due to violent response by the security forces, the outrage grew and the protestors became more radical themselves.

That the demands of the protestors were legitimate.
MMM, no. Presidents break promises all the time. And protesters can protests regardless. Zelensky promised to stop war in Eatern Ukraine - broke it.
How was Zelensky supposed to stop the war? It was Putin's decision to support the rebels and nothing Zelensky could have done to change that.

Yanukovich on the other hand had a simple job: just negotiate the deal and sign it. But he stalled and called for three party discussions where Russia would have veto, and other nonsense. The power was entirely in his hands, and he chose to be Putin's puppet.

Nazis! Nazis everywhere!
Yes, that's what happened. Ironic, is not it?
Putin playing the nazi card, and you parroting it uncritically, is ironic, but not for the reasons you think.
 
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