How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[SLD]

I don’t normally agree with Republicans, but this appears to be a bipartisan agreement: Why the fuck isn’t Biden stopping Russian oil imports?

Americans have literally gone to war for "lower gas prices" on multiple occasions.

Facepalm. But yes. Only under Republican presidents though.

 

[Hermit]

One can see why right-wingers might like present-day Russia. Belligerent nationalism, prominence of organized religion in politics, official homophobia, ...

But what I find curious is the lack of acknowledgment of their complete fliparound from their Cold-War days.

"We are not opposed to the Russians. We never were. Russians are good people. Russians are like you and me. Russians are our friends. Always have been.

We are opposed to the Communists. We always were. Communists are bad people..."

 

[SLD]

Here’s a Russian POW responding directly to Barbos Posts.

 

[steve_bank]

In the 70s and 80s before te Internet and cable news I listend to global shortwave radio. The BBC, France, Radio Free America, China, and other Soviet client stations. The communist propaganda was very real. I coud get the differnt views on events. From the communist side a steady stream of rants and claims. Putin is a reflection of that, as Putin said there are no homosexuals in Russia.

Dis you know Russians invented TV and the telephone?

Anybody remember Vladimir Pozner?

Vladimir Pozner Jr. - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Vladimir Vladimirovich Pozner (Russian: Влади́мир Влади́мирович По́знер; born 1 April 1934) is a French-born Russian-American journalist and presenter.[1][2]

He is best known in the West for his television appearances representing and explaining the views of the Soviet Union during the Cold War.[3] He was memorable as a spokesman for the Soviets in part because he grew up in the United States and speaks fluent English, Russian and French. Pozner later described his role as propaganda.[2][4]

After the Cold War, Pozner moved to the United States to work with Phil Donahue, before returning to Moscow to continue working as a television journalist. Since 2008, he has hosted the eponymous show Pozner on Russia's Channel One where he interviews public figures.

 

[Patooka]

This CNN report is about the secret airfield from which weapons and materiel are being delivered to Ukraine. I don't know why they even allowed this to be reported on,

Because everyone keeps demanding that NATO does SOMETHING! This is SOMETHING!

Jesus fucking Christ, we're not even two weeks into this and everyone is expecting this to be done and dusted.

 

[Jayjay]

Here’s a Russian POW responding directly to Barbos Posts.

Propaganda or not, guys like this make me hope that there might be some way out of this conflict.

Apparently Russian troops didn't advance at all during the weekend; according to WSJ Russia is trying to get Syrian soldiers to come in to fight. Both news imply that Russia is having trouble with its soldiers' morale. Whether it's just a delay or something more permanent remains to be seen, but nevertheless it gave Ukraine a breather.

 

[Hermit]

There's a letter going around from an alleged FSB analyst on his thinking of the situation.



Translated here.

Thread by @igorsushko on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App.

Interesting read, and it rings authentic.

If I were a Ukrainian, working somewhere in its defence ministry, propaganda, counter-intelligence section, or somesuch, that's the sort of thing I would concoct, then "leak" it to today's version of the Samizdat.

 

[Swammerdami]

There is much optimism and hope that Ukraine will somehow "prevail." But realistically this is very unlikely. Even the "stalled convoy" north of Kiev is right where it needs to be. With their airport cut off, Kiev will succumb to an old-fashioned siege.

I don't understand why Russian air power over Ukraine seems to be minimalist.

Yes Russia has many ways to escalate its attack if necessary. The brave Ukrainian people may resist for years but Ukraine will soon cease to exist as a self-governed country.

 

[Jayjay]

It's increasingly starting to look look like the Ukraine will end up an expensive and embarrassing mess for Putin.

It's also clear now that the Ukranian Nazi's was something Putin invented for propaganda reasons and to give him an excuse to attack. All bullshit.

I've also learned from my investment banker friends, with oligarch connections, that the sanctions are hitting Putin right in the nuts, and is risking his actual life. I thought it was a lame an ineffectual response. But it turns out to be the one weapon Putin fears the most.

China is not backing up Putin. That's nice. And gives hope for Taiwan's survival.

This Ukrainian adventure is not at all turning out the way we thought. The worrying neurotics are often right. But often not.

I count myself as one of those neurotics.

Kyiv didn't fall in a day, like Putin had anticipated. But it will fall. I can't but applaud Zelensky, he's very likely going to be dead in a week. And regardless, Kyiv is not the reason for the attack, it's just part of the offensive to keep Ukrainian military divided between multiple targets. The thing I'm watching on the maps in news shows is the progress of Russian occupied area in Donbass and the coast. Slowly but surely, Russia is taking over all the territory that he wants, and when that's done, he can end the war. With or without Kyiv.

So what happens after that? Putin will say that he's not going to withdraw and that's a red line. Just like with Crimea. And threaten nukes if anyone tries to retake the land by force. The rest of Ukraine can either agree to a ceasefire or continue a losing battle. EU and NATO can look at continue sanctions, but it'll become harder and harder because of the economic impact, and russian propagandists taking advantage of the fissures between EU nations and even political parties within the nations. The argument will be, do we really want to have higher electric bills and gas because of Ukraine's losing fight?

I hope Ukraine can fight as long as it can, and that EU and US remain unified as long as possible. But eventually Putin will win this war, even if it becomes more expensive than he thought. Right now a bank run and widespread chaos in Russia is pretty much the only thing that can stop it, but I don't think it will happen.

There's an Estonian saying: "Everything is Russia is shit, except for piss." I think the same applies to 99% of world.

I made this prediction last Tuesday. Zelensky is still breathing, which is good, but that's about the only silver lining.

Russian troops seem to be advancing towards Kyiv also from the east. I think they will try to take the city in a few days. When that happens, Zelensky is a dead man. He's too dangerous for Putin to be left alive. Ukraine better have a plan of succession ready for the time when Kyiv falls.

 

[bleubird]

Russia-Ukraine conflict: What it means for grain and oilseed markets

The sad events we are seeing in Ukraine have brought the issue of food security to centre stage. Disruptions to supply chains along with self-sanctioning…

think.ing.com

This is going to hit the world hard soon.

 

[Politesse]

There is much optimism and hope that Ukraine will somehow "prevail." But realistically this is very unlikely. Even the "stalled convoy" north of Kiev is right where it needs to be. With their airport cut off, Kiev will succumb to an old-fashioned siege.

I don't understand why Russian air power over Ukraine seems to be minimalist.

Yes Russia has many ways to escalate its attack if necessary. The brave Ukrainian people may resist for years but Ukraine will soon cease to exist as a self-governed country.

Unfortunately correct. This story will not have a happy ending.

 

[Swammerdami]

From this page:

 

[TV and credit cards]

Sounds like that convoy outside of Kyiv is not only stalled but pretty well beat to shit between Ukrainian attacks, Russian abandonment, broken down vehicles, and lack of support.
Also, territory Russians advance through is as expected, not being held.
Further, NATO/US anti-tank and anti-aircraft armament has moved expeditiously to where it needs to be with apparently much success.
Now, a few Soviet MiGs from that seventies show should be coming soon.

So, what’s a poor tyrant to do? Does Putin lash out? Will his chain of command follow orders if they increasingly view those orders as unlawful? If there is such a thing in the Russian command structure. If the media is painting an accurate picture, this could be a pivotal moment. I think a Biden message to the Russian people and specifically those in the Russian military command would be timely. The sentiments Russian soldiers have toward the Ukrainian people and that they have been kept in the dark about what their mission is has to resonate through the ranks.
It would be sweet for Zelensky to see the tables turn on Putin.

 

[SLD]

Here’s a Russian POW responding directly to Barbos Posts.

Propaganda or not, guys like this make me hope that there might be some way out of this conflict.

Apparently Russian troops didn't advance at all during the weekend; according to WSJ Russia is trying to get Syrian soldiers to come in to fight. Both news imply that Russia is having trouble with its soldiers' morale. Whether it's just a delay or something more permanent remains to be seen, but nevertheless it gave Ukraine a breather.

The way out of this conflict is for NATO air strikes on Russian armor and artillery positions. [removed]

 

[Gospel]

Russia only has two options, Annex Ukraine and deal with the long-term costs, or tuck penis back in pants and go home. There is a third option but we don't talk about Bruno.

 

[ZiprHead]

Here’s a Russian POW responding directly to Barbos Posts.

Propaganda or not, guys like this make me hope that there might be some way out of this conflict.

Apparently Russian troops didn't advance at all during the weekend; according to WSJ Russia is trying to get Syrian soldiers to come in to fight. Both news imply that Russia is having trouble with its soldiers' morale. Whether it's just a delay or something more permanent remains to be seen, but nevertheless it gave Ukraine a breather.

I read yesterday that Ukrainians came upon an abandoned Russian APC. The MREs left on board had expired eight years ago.

 

[SLD]

Here’s a Russian POW responding directly to Barbos Posts.

Propaganda or not, guys like this make me hope that there might be some way out of this conflict.

Apparently Russian troops didn't advance at all during the weekend; according to WSJ Russia is trying to get Syrian soldiers to come in to fight. Both news imply that Russia is having trouble with its soldiers' morale. Whether it's just a delay or something more permanent remains to be seen, but nevertheless it gave Ukraine a breather.

I read yesterday that Ukrainians came upon an abandoned Russian APC. The MREs left on board had expired eight years ago.

Here’s the full video. I watched it all. It’s utterly insane. Putin’s a damn fool. He can’t win. He might destroy their buildings, but unlike in Aleppo, Ukrainians will fight back. He may capture Kiev, but he can’t hold it or control it.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It's become clear that there isn't a middle class Russian military. It seems they have lots of boots to put on the ground, lots of strategic and long range weapons, but they lack motivation, cohesiveness and control when it comes to executing tactical objectives because the folks in between don't have much of a plan. It's probably a training and equipment deficiency. Russia fields a great tank, the crew is below the fight and pretty safe, but if that crew is poorly trained and equipped that tank is handicapped because all military hardware is just an extension of the person operating it. It's better to have highly motivated troops operating shitty hardware.

This is how Iraq's military operated. Japanese ground forces in WW2 were highly motivated but didn't have much on tactics. The Russian Army obviously contains some highly trained units but most of it must be composed of cannon fodder, a paper army.

The Soviet lunar program operated similarly, lots of show but not much on dough, which is why it failed.

 

[DrZoidberg]

A friend is in Poland helping with organise refugee support. He's renting Airbnbs to host refugees as they pass through. Here's a funny conversation from this morning

 

[ZiprHead]

View it on Twitter to see the full photograph.