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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?


Captured Russians said their leaders lied about the plan to invade Ukraine, leaving them unprepared for fierce resistance​


At a striking presentation last week at the United Nations, Ukraine's ambassador presented a text message exchange he said was between a Russian soldier and his mother before he was killed.

In the texts, the unnamed soldier appeared to inform his mother that he was not really on a training mission and had instead been deployed into a "real war"

"We were told that they would welcome us," the the exchange said," but instead the locals were "falling under our armored vehicles, throwing themselves under the wheels and not allowing us to pass."

"They call us fascists," the texts continued. "Mama, this is so hard."

Just thought to post this link that discusses how Russian troops had no idea they were going to invade Ukraine and have to kill civilians. Just more proof of Putin the Pig's propaganda machine.
 
Good story here on how US and Europe are helping Ukraine get arms and supplies. I hope the MIG-29 deal can be worked out.


Arming Ukraine: 17,000 Anti-Tank Weapons in 6 Days and a Clandestine Cybercorps

In less than a week, the United States and NATO have pushed more than 17,000 antitank weapons, including Javelin missiles, over the borders of Poland and Romania, unloading them from giant military cargo planes so they can make the trip by land to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, and other major cities. So far, Russian forces have been so preoccupied in other parts of the country that they have not targeted the arms supply lines, but few think that can last.

In Washington and Germany, intelligence officials race to merge satellite photographs with electronic intercepts of Russian military units, strip them of hints of how they were gathered, and beam them to Ukrainian military units within an hour or two. As he tries to stay out of the hands of Russian forces in Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine travels with encrypted communications equipment, provided by the Americans, that can put him into a secure call with President Biden.

It is a delicate balance. On Saturday, while Mr. Biden was in Wilmington, Del., his National Security Council staff spent much of the day trying to find a way for Poland to transfer to Ukraine a fleet of well-used, Soviet-made MIG-29 fighter jets that Ukrainian pilots know how to fly. But the deal is contingent on giving Poland, in return, far more capable, American-made F-16s, an operation made more complicated by the fact that many of those fighters are promised to Taiwan — where the United States has greater strategic interests.

To understand the warp-speed nature of the arms transfers underway now, consider this: A $60 million arms package to Ukraine that the U.S. announced last August was not completed until November, the Pentagon said.

But when the president approved $350 million in military aid on Feb. 26 — nearly six times larger — 70 percent of it was delivered in five days.
 
I'm an old man now but if I was living in Europe I still feel I'd be in Ukraine killing Putinistas.
 
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The question that keeps cumming up in the news is thwhy is Putin not fully using his air force? Russia jets have been shot down. Russia shoud have total uncontested air superiority.

Apparently Ukraine flying older MIGs are holding their own.

Is he worried about loosing top line jets?

I've wondered that myself. I've Googled it a bit and have only found more questions than answers - and speculation. I have very weak knowledge on the subject of advanced fighter jets and the infrastructure needed to maintain them but I wonder if, given the decrepit state of his ground forces, if he lacks the technology infrastructure and trained service expertise needed to maintain his best technology.
I suspect that the entire Russian military has been hollowed out by corruption and graft.

Every unit has kept just enough working equipment to pass inspection by senior officers who have been bribed not to notice anything wrong; The rest has been exchanged for vodka on the black market, and is currently in Tehran under a hastily applied Iranian Revolutionary Guard paint job.
 
The question that keeps cumming up in the news is thwhy is Putin not fully using his air force? Russia jets have been shot down. Russia shoud have total uncontested air superiority.

Apparently Ukraine flying older MIGs are holding their own.

Is he worried about loosing top line jets?

I've wondered that myself. I've Googled it a bit and have only found more questions than answers - and speculation. I have very weak knowledge on the subject of advanced fighter jets and the infrastructure needed to maintain them but I wonder if, given the decrepit state of his ground forces, if he lacks the technology infrastructure and trained service expertise needed to maintain his best technology.
That seems to be the case. The military has a ton of firepower but lacks staying power.
During the Cold War it was said the Soviet forces had more tanks than NATO, but on amy day they could only field a small percetage. They could not keep them running.

Maybe that's it.

Russian commercial aviartion was never safe, poor mantence.
 
The question that keeps cumming up in the news is thwhy is Putin not fully using his air force? Russia jets have been shot down. Russia shoud have total uncontested air superiority.

Apparently Ukraine flying older MIGs are holding their own.

Is he worried about loosing top line jets?

Given troop morale and the threat over Ukraine I'm wondering if he's afraid of defections. Give it enough fuel to carry out a mission and you've given it enough fuel to make it to Poland.
 
Given troop morale and the threat over Ukraine I'm wondering if he's afraid of defections. Give it enough fuel to carry out a mission and you've given it enough fuel to make it to Poland.
Excellent observation. Considering the fact that 5000 protesters were arrested yesterday across Putinstan for demonstrating against the war in Ukraine it is a distinct possibility. The Soviets always kept party officials, aka government police/spies, stationed alongside regular officers. That's tough to do in a jet.
 
I suspect that the entire Russian military has been hollowed out by corruption and graft.

Agree with this part.

Every unit has kept just enough working equipment to pass inspection by senior officers who have been bribed not to notice anything wrong; The rest has been exchanged for vodka on the black market, and is currently in Tehran under a hastily applied Iranian Revolutionary Guard paint job.

But I think you have it backwards here--I don't think the senior officers are being bribed, but rather are part of the graft.
 
I just wanted to share this, which was posted from a Facebook friend in Odesa. He is a great classical and jazz pianist, and he was posting Facebook performances live only a few days ago, before the invasion began. He posted this without comment only moments ago. I don't know whether his wife and daughter are safe. He, of course, is not allowed to leave, because all able-bodied men are drafted into the service of their country. It is obvious that Odesa is under bombardment.

Sasha.jpg
 
Listening to Randi Rhodes. She says rumors are flying that Putin has cancer and the treatments have made him immune compromised, thus the long table between him and the generals. I know others have commented that he doesn't look healthy.
 
Listening to Randi Rhodes. She says rumors are flying that Putin has cancer and the treatments have made him immune compromised, thus the long table between him and the generals. I know others have commented that he doesn't look healthy.
That might explain why he doesn't seem to care much about the consequences of what he does, but there are a lot of rumors flying around these days.
 
Here’s a Russian POW responding directly to Barbos Posts.


Propaganda or not, guys like this make me hope that there might be some way out of this conflict.

Apparently Russian troops didn't advance at all during the weekend; according to WSJ Russia is trying to get Syrian soldiers to come in to fight. Both news imply that Russia is having trouble with its soldiers' morale. Whether it's just a delay or something more permanent remains to be seen, but nevertheless it gave Ukraine a breather.

I read yesterday that Ukrainians came upon an abandoned Russian APC. The MREs left on board had expired eight years ago.

When my kid was in Afghanistan in 2008 and at that time he was eating MREs that were over 20 years old.
 
The question that keeps cumming up in the news is thwhy is Putin not fully using his air force? Russia jets have been shot down. Russia shoud have total uncontested air superiority.

Apparently Ukraine flying older MIGs are holding their own.

Is he worried about loosing top line jets?

I've wondered that myself. I've Googled it a bit and have only found more questions than answers - and speculation. I have very weak knowledge on the subject of advanced fighter jets and the infrastructure needed to maintain them but I wonder if, given the decrepit state of his ground forces, if he lacks the technology infrastructure and trained service expertise needed to maintain his best technology.
I suspect that the entire Russian military has been hollowed out by corruption and graft.

Every unit has kept just enough working equipment to pass inspection by senior officers who have been bribed not to notice anything wrong; The rest has been exchanged for vodka on the black market, and is currently in Tehran under a hastily applied Iranian Revolutionary Guard paint job.
And/or the senior officers like everyone else in their chain of command pencil-whips reports on combat readiness. As long as everything looks good on paper, all's well. No one wants to report up the chain of command that there's problems in their division, that they can't manage within budgetary constraints.
 
Listening to Randi Rhodes. She says rumors are flying that Putin has cancer and the treatments have made him immune compromised, thus the long table between him and the generals. I know others have commented that he doesn't look healthy.
All of that may be true but if it isn't, it's a convenient cover to explain his behavior: he's physically ill, he's mentally ill. Oh, he seems to be deteriorating mentally just like Trump.......

I'm not saying that I don't believe that Trump deteriorated significantly while he was POTUS, physically and mentally. We've all seen photographic evidence of how much the office physically ages POTUS through their terms. Mentally? That was a new wrinkle re: Trump.

I'm just saying that it's.....convenient whether or not it is true.
 
The question that keeps cumming up in the news is thwhy is Putin not fully using his air force? Russia jets have been shot down. Russia shoud have total uncontested air superiority.

Apparently Ukraine flying older MIGs are holding their own.

Is he worried about loosing top line jets?

Given troop morale and the threat over Ukraine I'm wondering if he's afraid of defections. Give it enough fuel to carry out a mission and you've given it enough fuel to make it to Poland.
That may be a good point. A pilot taking an advanced Russian fighter over to Poland.
 
The question that keeps cumming up in the news is thwhy is Putin not fully using his air force? Russia jets have been shot down. Russia shoud have total uncontested air superiority.

Apparently Ukraine flying older MIGs are holding their own.

Is he worried about loosing top line jets?

I've wondered that myself. I've Googled it a bit and have only found more questions than answers - and speculation. I have very weak knowledge on the subject of advanced fighter jets and the infrastructure needed to maintain them but I wonder if, given the decrepit state of his ground forces, if he lacks the technology infrastructure and trained service expertise needed to maintain his best technology.
I suspect that the entire Russian military has been hollowed out by corruption and graft.

Every unit has kept just enough working equipment to pass inspection by senior officers who have been bribed not to notice anything wrong; The rest has been exchanged for vodka on the black market, and is currently in Tehran under a hastily applied Iranian Revolutionary Guard paint job.
And/or the senior officers like everyone else in their chain of command pencil-whips reports on combat readiness. As long as everything looks good on paper, all's well. No one wants to report up the chain of command that there's problems in their division, that they can't manage within budgetary constraints.
For sure.

If you're in a business, you can only get away with lying to the boss about your unit's capabilities for maybe a quarter, perhaps a full year, before it becomes obvious that you are seriously underperforming.

But in the military, you can hide problems behind positive and flattering reports for as long as nobody wants you to actually fight a war. Long periods of peace are an excellent opportunity for a culture to develop of writing glowing reports that bear little resemblance to reality.
 
The idea of deterioration implies Putin and Trump were not imcapcitaed to begin with.

Clearly Trump was incompetent during his business career. By all accounts Trump acted as president as he always acted.

I heard it again last night on a short bio of Putin. He was a nobody. When Yeltsin decided to resign he searched for semone to appoint as a successor who would protect his assets, and protect he and his family from prosecution for corruption. The joke was Russians said Vladimir who?

Putin was probably as incompetent an unqualified as Trump.

People on the forum have links to Ukrtaine, it is truly a small interconectd world.
 

What's sad is that I still have one of them at home, granted only 11 years old. Use it to update my wife's web business.
If the Russia military is still using them then I must update now. :oops:

The laptop I'm using right now is actually a little older than the one in the photo. But mine has 8 gigs of ram, an I5 processor, an SSD, and running windows 10. Still fairly peppy for what I need it to do.
 
I'm not saying that I don't believe that Trump deteriorated significantly while he was POTUS, physically and mentally. We've all seen photographic evidence of how much the office physically ages POTUS through their terms. Mentally? That was a new wrinkle re: Trump.
Hard to tell with Trump since he's covered in makeup and hair dye.
 
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