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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Copernicus

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AFAICT, Russia is nowhere near that level of anti-government sentiment, but the frustration is building dramatically enough for the government to find it difficult to keep playing whack-a-mole.
That's all I'm really saying. I don't know what the internet situation was in Ukraine prior to that event but I would guess that free access to information was greater. In Russia that is simply not the case. Someone like barbos does not have the whole picture. There are people who with the whole picture are going to be just as supportive of the regime anyway, same as anywhere else. And if one does decide that the government is not acting in his best interests he is still not free to express that disagreement. That's the bigger problem, obviously.

I agree that access to information is important, but I don't get the impression that barbos's opinions have taken their current shape because of it. He has much greater access to Western web sites and media than most Russians, and he seems more pro-Putin than a lot of Russians who have less exposure, either because of technical difficulties or linguistic difficulties. I'm just saying that we really have even less information and exposure about what is going on inside of Russia. So it is really hard to say how widespread public opposition to Putin's war is, especially since people generally don't want to risk exposing themselves to persecution by expressing vocal opposition in public. Barbos can safely express pro-war views here, because it doesn't endanger him with those who may be monitoring his online discussions. He toes the "one people" party line.
 

T.G.G. Moogly

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AFAICT, Russia is nowhere near that level of anti-government sentiment, but the frustration is building dramatically enough for the government to find it difficult to keep playing whack-a-mole.
That's all I'm really saying. I don't know what the internet situation was in Ukraine prior to that event but I would guess that free access to information was greater. In Russia that is simply not the case. Someone like barbos does not have the whole picture. There are people who with the whole picture are going to be just as supportive of the regime anyway, same as anywhere else. And if one does decide that the government is not acting in his best interests he is still not free to express that disagreement. That's the bigger problem, obviously.

I agree that access to information is important, but I don't get the impression that barbos's opinions have taken their current shape because of it. He has much greater access to Western web sites and media than most Russians, and he seems more pro-Putin than a lot of Russians who have less exposure, either because of technical difficulties or linguistic difficulties. I'm just saying that we really have even less information and exposure about what is going on inside of Russia. So it is really hard to say how widespread public opposition to Putin's war is, especially since people generally don't want to risk exposing themselves to persecution by expressing vocal opposition in public. Barbos can safely express pro-war views here, because it doesn't endanger him with those who may be monitoring his online discussions. He toes the "one people" party line.
You must be saying that most Russians aren't into the internet for information. the information barbos is getting can't be any different than what's available in the rest of Russia.

Also, my earlier post demonstrated that there is much censorship of information. We don't have that problem in the U.S. This 16 minute video is worth watching for those who don't understand what it is like to live in the Russian police state.

Putin's assault on critics of the war in Ukraine
 
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Harry Bosch

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AFAICT, Russia is nowhere near that level of anti-government sentiment, but the frustration is building dramatically enough for the government to find it difficult to keep playing whack-a-mole.
That's all I'm really saying. I don't know what the internet situation was in Ukraine prior to that event but I would guess that free access to information was greater. In Russia that is simply not the case. Someone like barbos does not have the whole picture. There are people who with the whole picture are going to be just as supportive of the regime anyway, same as anywhere else. And if one does decide that the government is not acting in his best interests he is still not free to express that disagreement. That's the bigger problem, obviously.

I agree that access to information is important, but I don't get the impression that barbos's opinions have taken their current shape because of it. He has much greater access to Western web sites and media than most Russians, and he seems more pro-Putin than a lot of Russians who have less exposure, either because of technical difficulties or linguistic difficulties. I'm just saying that we really have even less information and exposure about what is going on inside of Russia. So it is really hard to say how widespread public opposition to Putin's war is, especially since people generally don't want to risk exposing themselves to persecution by expressing vocal opposition in public. Barbos can safely express pro-war views here, because it doesn't endanger him with those who may be monitoring his online discussions. He toes the "one people" party line.
At the end of the day, I'd acknowledge that Russians don't have access to all the info. And we don't know how they feel and if they really support the war. However, I listen to Barbos and read the numerous Russian blogs, and there is a common theme that Russians believe that Ukraine is Russian land. Ukraine and the other eastern European countries (Poland, Baltic states and etc) really belong to Russia. And the fact that the west is involved with Ukraine means that we "started the war". As long as the Russians believe that Ukraine belongs to Russia, we'll be at war with them.

So, I understand Barbos position. Even though it is deluded. However, I really hate it when old people who are too old to fight advocate for war. That's chickenshit! Barbos is too old to serve in the military. If I were too old, I'd at least keep my mouth shut. The last US war that I supported was Afghanistan. I would have joined, except that I have been ruled medially ineligible due to a bad disk in my back. But I really think that if someone advocates for war, they ought to join and fight for it.
 

Copernicus

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Don't forget that barbos is fluent enough in English to understand what he finds in Western news sources, and he has shown evidence here of having access to sources that are normally banned online in Russia. He knows how to use a proxy service to circumvent attempts to block access to the external internet, which is severely censored for most Russians.

See, for example:

Ukraine war: Russians kept in the dark by internet search


Also, don't forget that barbos has been exposed to a lot of information about what is happening in Ukraine by engaging people in this forum. His sources of information are not typical for a Russian citizen. I just don't believe that he is as naive or uninformed about what is going on as most Russians are.
 

T.G.G. Moogly

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Any news I receive through Microsoft from the Hindustan Times is pro Russian, and not just a little bit. Don't know exactly how that happens to such a widely read paper or how I only get pro Russian blurbs. But it illustrates how people can be fed biased information.
I just don't believe that he is as naive or uninformed about what is going on as most Russians are.
Why not? More importantly, does that even matter? Or do you think he is doing it just to protect himself?
 

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It is unbelievable.

It is like watching the Battle Of The Bulge in WWII on TV in real time.

I suppose we are all conditioned and desensitized by decades of violence and conflict in daily news. The Ukrainian fight is epic.

How does Russia spin it t this point? He has no off ramp.
 

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It is unbelievable.

It is like watching the Battle Of The Bulge in WWII on TV in real time.

I suppose we are all conditioned and desensitized by decades of violence and conflict in daily news. The Ukrainian fight is epic.

How does Russia spin it t this point? He has no off ramp.
I think that they are honestly spinning it as that there are actual physical NATO troops in Ukraine fighting against the Russians. For the longest time, I thought that the NATO troops fighting in Ukraine was just a metaphor. But I don't think so anymore. The Russians are truely deluded. They just can't understand why a people would fight for their land.
 

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Any news I receive through Microsoft from the Hindustan Times is pro Russian, and not just a little bit. Don't know exactly how that happens to such a widely read paper or how I only get pro Russian blurbs. But it illustrates how people can be fed biased information.

I'm not sure why you are bringing up the Hindustan Times here. I did cite a BBC article.


I just don't believe that he is as naive or uninformed about what is going on as most Russians are.
Why not? More importantly, does that even matter? Or do you think he is doing it just to protect himself?

I explained why I didn't think him naive or uninformed. He has been hanging around this forum and previously the Secular Cafe for years now, so he is no stranger to me. My impression has always been that he made an effort to keep himself informed. It is only since Putin's invasion of Ukraine that he has been spouting disinformation and propaganda claptrap, and I assume that most of it is just to provoke others into angry debates. He likes rough play. One of the advantages of being on his ignore list is that I don't get sucked into his spinning vortex of angry taunts and insults. :)
 

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Barbos is invaluable to this community, as an articulate and unique character. At any given moment he may express a salient point of fact, and the next, a counter factual assertion of fantasy.
it has educated me to learn of the power of the comic book version of Mother Russia that has been assembled out of tenuous fragments of history, and sold to the Russian people. It all makes a certain internal sense, even if it’s vaporware.
 

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I'm not sure why you are bringing up the Hindustan Times here. I did cite a BBC article.
Sorry for the confusion. I was merely trying to illustrate the fact that some news sources are seriously biased. For example Russia is bringing its T62 tanks out of mothballs because their newer tanks are being destroyed. The Hindustan Times wrote this up as the Russians bringing their fiercest tanks into battle and that Ukraine better look out. It's like that. So barbos's position is understandable if his sources are highly compromised.
 

Copernicus

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I'm not sure why you are bringing up the Hindustan Times here. I did cite a BBC article.
Sorry for the confusion. I was merely trying to illustrate the fact that some news sources are seriously biased. For example Russia is bringing its T62 tanks out of mothballs because their newer tanks are being destroyed. The Hindustan Times wrote this up as the Russians bringing their fiercest tanks into battle and that Ukraine better look out. It's like that. So barbos's position is understandable if his sources are highly compromised.

My assumption is that he is aware of the biases in his sources. I think that he comes here to get information about how Russia is perceived by outsiders and to play foot soldier in the propaganda war that is permeating social media. Not everything he says is insincere, but a lot of it is just to provoke outrage, knowing full well that some of the claims he makes are just nonsensical.
 

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Also, my earlier post demonstrated that there is much censorship of information. We don't have that problem in the U.S. This 16 minute video is worth watching for those who don't understand what it is like to live in the Russian police state.
You have worse problem than Russia.
Virtually everything you can hear is a lie, everything and you believe it because you are convinced that your media is truthful. In Russia we have a history of mistrust of official information and government is aware of that when they "lie".

Your government and Media does not have that problem and can lie without consequences. All MSM is effectively owned by MIC and neocons.
People eat the same shit, democrat, republican, does not matter, the same damn shit. You ate everything your neocon governmnents tells you about their foreign affairs. Average american is still utterly oblivious about shit your neocon scam does abroad. You can bitch all day long about significant or insignificant internal disagreements but when it comes to foreign affairs you all go along. You went along with Bush illegal wars, you went along with Obama illegal wars, you went along with Biden illegal wars. Same with Clinton and assholes before him.


Example I stumbled upon couple of weeks ago. It's about that nuclear power plant.
Your lying media reported "The Power plant which Russia has been shelling was put back on line (by Ukraine)"

In Reality, It was not put online. and it was not shelled by Russia (Ukraine was shelling it). It was connected to Ukrainian grid in order to maintain its shutdown status. IAEA convinced ukrainian imbeciles they had to do that for safety reasons.
Nevertheless ukrainian scam has kept on shelling it.

Your media are filthy liars.
 

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As long as the West continues to arm Ukraine, Russia will continue to get its ass handed back to them.
 

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Patooka, just because your shitty media does not report it, does not mean it's not so.

Yes, ukrainian army is using drugs. That's not really a secret. Russian forces more than likely use them too. The question WHICH drugs and on what scale.
US army, by the way, using drugs as well. German invented amphetamine and everyone including Hitler was using it. Well, Hitler used everything, and Zelensky is clearly using something (just look at some videos)
 

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Patooka, just because your shitty media does not report it, does not mean it's not so.

Yes, ukrainian army is using drugs. That's not really a secret. Russian forces more than likely use them too. The question WHICH drugs and on what scale.
US army, by the way, using drugs as well. German invented amphetamine and everyone including Hitler was using it. Well, Hitler used everything, and Zelensky is clearly using something (just look at some videos)
We all know Ukrainians are using drugs. They're on Psycho and Buffout. And Biden's been shipping them Rad-X and Radaway in case Putin drops a nuke on them. Next week is when we unleash the deathclaws into Russian cities.
 

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Patooka, just because your shitty media does not report it, does not mean it's not so.

Yes, ukrainian army is using drugs. That's not really a secret. Russian forces more than likely use them too. The question WHICH drugs and on what scale.
US army, by the way, using drugs as well. German invented amphetamine and everyone including Hitler was using it. Well, Hitler used everything, and Zelensky is clearly using something (just look at some videos)
We all know Ukrainians are using drugs. They're on Psycho and Buffout. And Biden's been shipping them Rad-X and Radaway in case Putin drops a nuke on them. Next week is when we unleash the deathclaws into Russian cities.
The Fallout of such a conflict would be terrible!

Then again, War, War Never Changes
 

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Russian forces more than likely use them too. The question WHICH drugs and on what scale.
I want to know what the Putler is using. That beady-eyed-yet-vacant vacant stare is not natural. Hard to tell as a non-Russian speaker, but listening to him, it sounds like his enunciation is suffering too, but maybe that's just the nature of the language ...
I'm thinking he's probably on Xanax, to suppress the well-warranted panic attacks that he would otherwise be suffering. The resulting cognitive dysfunction and memory impairment are probably giving fits to his immediate underlings.
 

T.G.G. Moogly

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Russian forces more than likely use them too. The question WHICH drugs and on what scale.
I want to know what the Putler is using. That beady-eyed-yet-vacant vacant stare is not natural. Hard to tell as a non-Russian speaker, but listening to him, it sounds like his enunciation is suffering too, but maybe that's just the nature of the language ...
I'm thinking he's probably on Xanax, to suppress the well-warranted panic attacks that he would otherwise be suffering. The resulting cognitive dysfunction and memory impairment are probably giving fits to his immediate underlings.
Agreed. Hitler had his meth. Putin has something and it ain't vodka.
 

Copernicus

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Also, my earlier post demonstrated that there is much censorship of information. We don't have that problem in the U.S. This 16 minute video is worth watching for those who don't understand what it is like to live in the Russian police state.
You have worse problem than Russia.
Virtually everything you can hear is a lie, everything and you believe it because you are convinced that your media is truthful. In Russia we have a history of mistrust of official information and government is aware of that when they "lie".

Your government and Media does not have that problem and can lie without consequences. All MSM is effectively owned by MIC and neocons.
People eat the same shit, democrat, republican, does not matter, the same damn shit. You ate everything your neocon governmnents tells you about their foreign affairs. Average american is still utterly oblivious about shit your neocon scam does abroad. You can bitch all day long about significant or insignificant internal disagreements but when it comes to foreign affairs you all go along. You went along with Bush illegal wars, you went along with Obama illegal wars, you went along with Biden illegal wars. Same with Clinton and assholes before him.


Example I stumbled upon couple of weeks ago. It's about that nuclear power plant.
Your lying media reported "The Power plant which Russia has been shelling was put back on line (by Ukraine)"

In Reality, It was not put online. and it was not shelled by Russia (Ukraine was shelling it). It was connected to Ukrainian grid in order to maintain its shutdown status. IAEA convinced ukrainian imbeciles they had to do that for safety reasons.
Nevertheless ukrainian scam has kept on shelling it.

Your media are filthy liars.

Projection on steroids. :rolleyes: It doesn't hurt as much when everyone else is just as corrupt and evil. Russia can do it to themselves and others, because the US does it too and the US is just like Russia.
 

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Also, my earlier post demonstrated that there is much censorship of information. We don't have that problem in the U.S. This 16 minute video is worth watching for those who don't understand what it is like to live in the Russian police state.
You have worse problem than Russia.
Virtually everything you can hear is a lie, everything and you believe it because you are convinced that your media is truthful. In Russia we have a history of mistrust of official information and government is aware of that when they "lie".
Then why do you believe everything that Russian media says with zero criticism?

The pretense that Rusian are somehow more critical of media because of Soviet era is nonsense, evidenced by the fact that people who are old enough to remember the USSR are more likely to believe Putin's propaganda and support the war. The reason is that Putin is tapping into the same anti-western paranoia that the Soviet Union had cultivated. When Putin says that NATO is waging a secret war to destroy Russia, it resonates with homo sovieticus because it appeals to nostalgia and the same bullshit their were fed when they were younger.

Your government and Media does not have that problem and can lie without consequences. All MSM is effectively owned by MIC and neocons.
Then don't watch "MSM". In the west, unlike Russia, there's a freedom of press and if CNN or BBC gets something wrong, they have to correct it because someone will call them on it. And despite corporate bias, they can't outright make up stuff like Russian propagandists can.

Example I stumbled upon couple of weeks ago. It's about that nuclear power plant.
Your lying media reported "The Power plant which Russia has been shelling was put back on line (by Ukraine)"

In Reality, It was not put online. and it was not shelled by Russia (Ukraine was shelling it). It was connected to Ukrainian grid in order to maintain its shutdown status. IAEA convinced ukrainian imbeciles they had to do that for safety reasons.
Nevertheless ukrainian scam has kept on shelling it.

Your media are filthy liars.
Except that there doesn't seem to be any evidence of shelling by Ukraine at ZNPP. The IAEA team who visited noticed a shell that clear came from Russian side:


When you "fact check" western sources against utter lies spread by Russian propaganda, which you never question, then of course western media looks incomprehensible to you.
 

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Example I stumbled upon couple of weeks ago. It's about that nuclear power plant.
Your lying media reported "The Power plant which Russia has been shelling was put back on line (by Ukraine)"

In Reality, It was not put online. and it was not shelled by Russia (Ukraine was shelling it). It was connected to Ukrainian grid in order to maintain its shutdown status. IAEA convinced ukrainian imbeciles they had to do that for safety reasons.
Nevertheless ukrainian scam has kept on shelling it.

Your media are filthy liars.
A perfect example of the fact that you're going on disinformation.

You say they are imbeciles because they had to be convinced the plant needs to be connected. No, anyone who runs a nuclear plant perfectly well knows they must be connected to the grid. If a nuclear plant goes without power you get a Fukushima. That's been known for ages, that's why the requirement for multiple independent sources of power. An operating plant can provide it's own power so being disconnected it's an automatic fubar, but someday it will go down and you have to be prepared for that day.

Ukraine knows this, they aren't going to mess with the connections. The chance that they shell the power wires is basically zero. Russia, however, has been engaging in continuing war crimes of attacking utilities that have no military value. Cutting those power wires is very much something Russia would do. Just because you don't think the good guys would hit a particular target doesn't mean Russia won't. Note that we aren't the only ones with satellites up there that can keep an eye on things--are all the space powers cooperating in this massive conspiracy?? The idea that something like that could be kept secret is laughable!
 

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When you "fact check" western sources against utter lies spread by Russian propaganda, which you never question, then of course western media looks incomprehensible to you.
Of course it turned 180 degrees. That's the official line, it has to be true. Strangely, the IAEA doesn't go along with that.
 

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Example I stumbled upon couple of weeks ago. It's about that nuclear power plant.
Your lying media reported "The Power plant which Russia has been shelling was put back on line (by Ukraine)"

In Reality, It was not put online. and it was not shelled by Russia (Ukraine was shelling it). It was connected to Ukrainian grid in order to maintain its shutdown status. IAEA convinced ukrainian imbeciles they had to do that for safety reasons.
Nevertheless ukrainian scam has kept on shelling it.

Your media are filthy liars.
A perfect example of the fact that you're going on disinformation.

You say they are imbeciles because they had to be convinced the plant needs to be connected. No, anyone who runs a nuclear plant perfectly well knows they must be connected to the grid. If a nuclear plant goes without power you get a Fukushima. That's been known for ages, that's why the requirement for multiple independent sources of power. An operating plant can provide it's own power so being disconnected it's an automatic fubar, but someday it will go down and you have to be prepared for that day.

Ukraine knows this, they aren't going to mess with the connections. The chance that they shell the power wires is basically zero. Russia, however, has been engaging in continuing war crimes of attacking utilities that have no military value. Cutting those power wires is very much something Russia would do. Just because you don't think the good guys would hit a particular target doesn't mean Russia won't. Note that we aren't the only ones with satellites up there that can keep an eye on things--are all the space powers cooperating in this massive conspiracy?? The idea that something like that could be kept secret is laughable!
Exactly. The narrative barbos is selling doesn't make a lick of sense. Russia is the one who wants Ukraine to suffer, as evidenced by the fact that it has destroyed 40% of Ukrainian electricity infrastructure. Ukraine needs any electricity it can get. There is just no advantage for Ukraine to cut the connection to ZNPP to cause a meltdown, because they'd cut their own power off at the same time.
 

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Regarding overall situation, I think now Ukraine has taken back everything that it can. The Kharkiv front is stuck, and Russia will likely make some gains as time goes by. But Ukraine isn't ready to negotiate yet, so it's in a bind. I think the US is slowly going to get tired of funding Ukraine as well, with republicans taking the house and the looming threat of China.

My prediction is that the current frontline (more or less, Russia probably will capture some towns in Donetsk) is going to freeze and become the new border, but the war will continue for at least until next summer. Let's see in 6 months if I was right, I hope not.

If Ukraine wants to prevail, it has to get more efficient at counter-battery fire and shooting down Russian UAVs.
 

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I think the US is slowly going to get tired of funding Ukraine as well, with republicans taking the house and the looming threat of China

* Don’t concede too much to Republican “control” of the House. It will be razor thin, and it won’t be easy for the fractured Trump party to herd 218 of their 219-222 cats.
* Failure to continue funding Ukranian independence/defense would embolden China re Taiwan. Even (some) Republicans know that.
 

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The question is whether those missile strikes were plausibly a mistake. If not, then the sites from which they were launched should be destroyed. Otherwise, Russia should pay reparations, which might be politically impossible for Putin. This kind of escalation, either deliberate or by mistake, was what everyone has been dreading, ever since Putin invaded Ukraine. It is beyond stupid.
 

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Personally, if Poland has the capability they ought to respond in kind, depending of course on what Hitler does. If Hitler reacts appropriately there need be no military response.
 

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The question is whether those missile strikes were plausibly a mistake. If not, then the sites from which they were launched should be destroyed. Otherwise, Russia should pay reparations, which might be politically impossible for Putin. This kind of escalation, either deliberate or by mistake, was what everyone has been dreading, ever since Putin invaded Ukraine. It is beyond stupid.
A bit more from The Insider
Unfortunately, Russia can't even get a pass if they were wayward missiles. I don't think there is much more we can do in as far as sanctions are concerned. Perhaps rather than military escalation, cutting rail transport to Kaliningrad would be just.
 

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Personally, if Poland has the capability they ought to respond in kind, depending of course on what Hitler does. If Hitler reacts appropriately there need be no military response.
But it's a NATO thing now. We couldn't let Poland respond on its own. Doesn't seem proper.
It is and it isn't. That depends on Poland.
 

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Personally, if Poland has the capability they ought to respond in kind, depending of course on what Hitler does. If Hitler reacts appropriately there need be no military response.
But it's a NATO thing now. We couldn't let Poland respond on its own. Doesn't seem proper.
It is and it isn't. That depends on Poland.
Right. We don't want to punch Russia in the mouth, causing them to pull out a gun and start blasting away at Poland.
Putler knows that, and this was almost certainly an intentional act to provoke a counterattack that would give excuse for the next escalation.
At some point, we are going to have to take Putler out.
 

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Personally, if Poland has the capability they ought to respond in kind, depending of course on what Hitler does. If Hitler reacts appropriately there need be no military response.
But it's a NATO thing now. We couldn't let Poland respond on its own. Doesn't seem proper.
It is and it isn't. That depends on Poland.
Doesn't Article 5 say otherwise?
As he attacked one, so did he attack us all.
 
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steve_bank

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Poland has an air force. They can retaliate.

A quetion may be is if Putin now wants to instigate a NATO response. That night open the door for nukes, and cement hs position that Russia is in an existential battle with NATO. It could rally the Russians and the military.
 

crazyfingers

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Doesn't Article 5 say otherwise?
I expect that Poland would have to determine it was an attack and would need to invoke article 5. If accidental, Poland may choose to say it was not intended and so decide not to call it an attack.

But if Poland declares that it was attacked, substantiates it and invokes Article 5, then NATO is obliged to become involved.
 

Tigers!

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Right. We don't want to punch Russia in the mouth, causing them to pull out a gun and start blasting away at Poland.
Putler knows that, and this was almost certainly an intentional act to provoke a counterattack that would give excuse for the next escalation.
At some point, we are going to have to take Putler out.
The Mossad must have a couple of agents in Russia with nothing to do.
Falls from windows, poisonings are terribly common in Russia it seems.
</sarcasm>
 

Jayjay

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The question is whether those missile strikes were plausibly a mistake. If not, then the sites from which they were launched should be destroyed. Otherwise, Russia should pay reparations, which might be politically impossible for Putin. This kind of escalation, either deliberate or by mistake, was what everyone has been dreading, ever since Putin invaded Ukraine. It is beyond stupid.
A bit more from The Insider
Unfortunately, Russia can't even get a pass if they were wayward missiles. I don't think there is much more we can do in as far as sanctions are concerned. Perhaps rather than military escalation, cutting rail transport to Kaliningrad would be just.
Not up to Poland. The railway from Belarus to Kaliningrad goes through Lithuania. Poland would need to convince Lithuania that to shut the rail, and risk reprisals from Russia and EU.

I think Poland should either privately demand that Russia confesses the missile strike and apologizes publicly. Or Poland could bring Patriot missile defense system to the border and agree with Ukraine for a partial "no fly zone" where Poland will shoot down cruise missiles over western Ukraine. Direct attacks against Russia seem unlikely.
 

Jayjay

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Personally, if Poland has the capability they ought to respond in kind, depending of course on what Hitler does. If Hitler reacts appropriately there need be no military response.
But it's a NATO thing now. We couldn't let Poland respond on its own. Doesn't seem proper.
It is and it isn't. That depends on Poland.
Doesn't Article 5 say otherwise?
Article 5 says other countries need to help if any member asks for it. So it's indeed up to Poland. I doubt Poland will invoke article 5 over this incident.

EDIT: crazyfingers beat me to it.
 

TV and credit cards

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The question is whether those missile strikes were plausibly a mistake. If not, then the sites from which they were launched should be destroyed. Otherwise, Russia should pay reparations, which might be politically impossible for Putin. This kind of escalation, either deliberate or by mistake, was what everyone has been dreading, ever since Putin invaded Ukraine. It is beyond stupid.
A bit more from The Insider
Unfortunately, Russia can't even get a pass if they were wayward missiles. I don't think there is much more we can do in as far as sanctions are concerned. Perhaps rather than military escalation, cutting rail transport to Kaliningrad would be just.
Not up to Poland. The railway from Belarus to Kaliningrad goes through Lithuania. Poland would need to convince Lithuania that to shut the rail, and risk reprisals from Russia and EU.

I think Poland should either privately demand that Russia confesses the missile strike and apologizes publicly. Or Poland could bring Patriot missile defense system to the border and agree with Ukraine for a partial "no fly zone" where Poland will shoot down cruise missiles over western Ukraine. Direct attacks against Russia seem unlikely.
I don't think it would take much convincing for Lithuania. Weren't they considering this earlier in the year?
The no-fly zone sounds good though it does seem like more of an invitation for confrontation between NATO and Russia. Perhaps just giving Ukraine the tools it needs, specifically longer range missiles to go after military targets within Russia and Russian ships would be best.
 

ZiprHead

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I don't think it would take much convincing for Lithuania. Weren't they considering this earlier in the year?
The no-fly zone sounds good though it does seem like more of an invitation for confrontation between NATO and Russia. Perhaps just giving Ukraine the tools it needs, specifically longer range missiles to go after military targets within Russia and Russian ships would be best.
Take out Russia's Black Sea Fleet where the missiles are coming from.
 

Copernicus

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Here is the Russian response, published by the RT propaganda site, to the missile attack on Poland:

Russia denies striking Poland with missiles


The US is coordinating with Poland to verify that the attack really was from Russia, although it seems to have happened during a massive missile attack against civilian targets inside of Ukraine. It's possible that a couple of Russian missiles simply went astray. Conceivably, they may have classified information from an AWACS flight regarding the trajectory of the missiles.

I don't see any reason why Putin would order a deliberate attack on Poland, given the risk of confrontation with NATO, but it is also possible that elements within the Russian military could have deliberately targeted the Polish town as a form of provocation. There are certainly lots of idiots in Russia who are crazy enough to try something like that, and we now can see how undisciplined, uncoordinated, and unprofessional the Russian military is.

The most likely explanation that occurs to me is that the attack was part of Putin's kneejerk response to the humiliating defeat and retreat from Kherson. His military was ordered to carry out the attack on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine as a way of stealing attention away from the panicked retreat, which apparently involves evacuations even from areas on the eastern side of the Dnipro. The attack on Ukraine was so large and hastily planned that a couple of missiles could easily have gone astray near the border of Ukraine and landed in Polish territory.
 

crazyfingers

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Here is the Russian response, published by the RT propaganda site, to the missile attack on Poland:

Russia denies striking Poland with missiles


The US is coordinating with Poland to verify that the attack really was from Russia, although it seems to have happened during a massive missile attack against civilian targets inside of Ukraine. It's possible that a couple of Russian missiles simply went astray. Conceivably, they may have classified information from an AWACS flight regarding the trajectory of the missiles.

I don't see any reason why Putin would order a deliberate attack on Poland, given the risk of confrontation with NATO, but it is also possible that elements within the Russian military could have deliberately targeted the Polish town as a form of provocation. There are certainly lots of idiots in Russia who are crazy enough to try something like that, and we now can see how undisciplined, uncoordinated, and unprofessional the Russian military is.

The most likely explanation that occurs to me is that the attack was part of Putin's kneejerk response to the humiliating defeat and retreat from Kherson. His military was ordered to carry out the attack on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine as a way of stealing attention away from the panicked retreat, which apparently involves evacuations even from areas on the eastern side of the Dnipro. The attack on Ukraine was so large and hastily planned that a couple of missiles could easily have gone astray near the border of Ukraine and landed in Polish territory.
In other words, a mistake. Ya I don't see a reason for Putin to purposely provoke something especially if mistake is seen as the most likely cause, being so close to the border.
 

Copernicus

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Moron Putin is now blaming Poland for escalation of war in Ukraine.


This war criminal has a limited repertoire of excuses for military blunders and atrocities committed by the Russian military. This is the well-worn excuse that Russians didn't commit the atrocity and/or blunder. It was Ukrainians doing it to their own country and their own people. Now he blames the Polish government for attacking its own village near the border of Ukraine just to embarrass Russia. Nobody is fooled except maybe some folks in Russia that don't want to believe that their country is lying to them.
 
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