How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[steve_bank]

Note during the VN War MLK was criticized by some blacks for not supporting the war.

Really? Do you have a cite, of blacks supporting the Viet Nam war and thinking MLK should?

I remember he was criticized for opposing the war, but that was because it diluted the civil rights message. They thought he should have stayed out of that fight completely. Didn't know anyone expected him to support our involvement.

I haven't got cites, but I remember him seriously criticizing war in general and that one in particular.

Yeah, i wasn't questioning that. Steve keeps throwing up these 'both sides' examples, and i don't recall anyone saying MLK SHOULD have supported the war. There were a lot of civil rights people fearing he'd be called Marxist, and thus the civil rights movment portrayed as Marxism, for opposing it, though.

MLK was an advocate for Gandhi's style of nonviolence (satyagraha), which opposed all forms of violence. However, Gandhi did support taking sides in some wars, at least in the form of humanitarian activities such as medical aid. The problem with Vietnam was that it was a war in general, not in particular. And those who were being drafted tended to be the ones least able to qualify for exemptions, so African Americans tended to end up fighting there in larger numbers as conscripts. So there was a racial component to it. MLK was criticized by some elements of the Black Power movement for not being in favor of the use of violence to fight oppression domestically.

Pacifism and passive resistance are not the same things.

 

[Copernicus]

This retired general also thinks that Putin and his generals overestimated the power of their military and underestimated the resilience of Ukrainian defense forces, which include a strong citizen militia component:

Putin will soon have 'no choice' but to stop his invasion of Ukraine, former US general says​

 

[Copernicus]

Note during the VN War MLK was criticized by some blacks for not supporting the war.

Really? Do you have a cite, of blacks supporting the Viet Nam war and thinking MLK should?

I remember he was criticized for opposing the war, but that was because it diluted the civil rights message. They thought he should have stayed out of that fight completely. Didn't know anyone expected him to support our involvement.

I haven't got cites, but I remember him seriously criticizing war in general and that one in particular.

Yeah, i wasn't questioning that. Steve keeps throwing up these 'both sides' examples, and i don't recall anyone saying MLK SHOULD have supported the war. There were a lot of civil rights people fearing he'd be called Marxist, and thus the civil rights movment portrayed as Marxism, for opposing it, though.

MLK was an advocate for Gandhi's style of nonviolence (satyagraha), which opposed all forms of violence. However, Gandhi did support taking sides in some wars, at least in the form of humanitarian activities such as medical aid. The problem with Vietnam was that it was a war in general, not in particular. And those who were being drafted tended to be the ones least able to qualify for exemptions, so African Americans tended to end up fighting there in larger numbers as conscripts. So there was a racial component to it. MLK was criticized by some elements of the Black Power movement for not being in favor of the use of violence to fight oppression domestically.

Pacifism and passive resistance are not the same things.

That was exactly Gandhi's position, only most of us in the 1960s who were part of that movement preferred the term "nonviolent resistance", since there was nothing "passive" about it. It was active civil disobedience.

 

[steve_bank]

I read his biography. He was a lawyer who passed the bar in England. He was Hindu. When he was shot he spke a Hindu prayer as he fell. He was not any kind of a religious zealot.

I think he understood the Brits and knew armed resistance would fail. Unlike the Nazis the Brits did have a moral line they would in the end not cross.

During WWII he thought the Allies should lay down their arms in Europe and defeat the Gemns with passive resistance.

From the bio with people he knew he was just a regualtr guy. He had his quirks. He thought fasting and mud baths could cure. He was not above having sex with other than his wife.

He had enemies other than the Brits.

It was the Europeans who came later that put him up on a pedestal.

Hw was a regular guy who did extraordinary things.

 

[blastula]

From earlier, a senior Russian naval officer was killed. Captain Andrei Paliy, deputy commander in their Black Sea Fleet.

Russian navy commander killed in Ukraine

A senior naval commander in Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been killed in Ukraine, the governor of Sevastopol said on Sunday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Elixir]

Pootey sure is brave about putting his generals in harm’s way.

“You’ve earned a BIG promotion!”
“Can I have a small promotion instead, pleeeease?”

 

[Jayjay]

Pootey sure is brave about putting his generals in harm’s way.

“You’ve earned a BIG promotion!”
“Can I have a small promotion instead, pleeeease?”

"Sure! Is 9mm small enough for you?"

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It's safe to say that for every penny the Russian economy generates a percentage goes into Putin's pocket and into the pockets of his cronies. It's also safe to assume that many of these "generals" are also on the take. One reason the russian military can't stand is because it is undersupplied. Does it make sense to believe that money for supplies and men is being funneled away like happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. It makes sense to me.

So in many cases when Putin tells someone to go do his bidding the poor clown has already crawled into the noose and has no choice. It's gangsterism, rule by the mob boss. Russia is really just the Pig's territory that he exploits for personal gain. If the poor clown refuses he's still fucked because the boss will have his way regardless.

 

[steve_bank]

Over here There were military resignations in the military and open criticism of Trump.

I doubt that is an option in Russia.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I don't even see why white phosphorus bombs would exist in the first place.

The legitimate military use of white phosphorus is making multi-spectral smoke. Grenades for infantry use, artillery for covering an attack.

(Ordinary smoke grenades don't do much about the infrared, you can still use thermal sights for targeting. White phosphorus smoke blocks thermal sights also.)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The Russians are the biggest drama queens in the world. A top Russian aide ws quoted as saying that Russia fears its confrontation with the West over Ukraine could cause its civilization to crumble. "Vladimir Medinsky, Russia's chief negotiator in talks with Ukraine, told a meeting of an interdepartmental commission on historical education that Moscow now faces a great challenge with the West, according to Russian news agency RIA Novosti."

Russia very well might crumble--people who have had it with Moscow and see Moscow can't stop them from leaving. The world shouldn't care any more than it did when Russia lost it's satellite republics.

 

[steve_bank]

When you debate the legitimacy of use of certain weapons in war you then infer war itself is legitimate.

By the Genevra Conventions if you are going to have a war make sure you use metal jaceted bullets that do not fragment in the body.

If Russia China, USA, UK ,and France decided to agree to stabilize all borders ad boundaries where they are and to treaten to collectvely punish any violator war would cease. A global NATO.

The problem is most nations reserve a right to wage war of it deems neceesary.

Biden's criticism of Russia is not for waging war, but for waging war without a justification. Russia of course clams justification as does China and NK. China has had shooting battles with India ovr a piece of land and theatens Taiwan with invasion.

 

[Elixir]

The problem is most nations reserve a right to wage war of it deems neceesary

Our economy is designed to need it.

 

[lpetrich]

More Russian Mercenaries Deploying to Ukraine to Take On Greater Role in War - The New York Times

Russian mercenaries with combat experience in Syria and Libya are gearing up to assume an increasingly active role in a phase of the war in Ukraine that Moscow now says is its top priority: fighting in the country’s east.

The number of mercenaries deployed to Ukraine from the Wagner Group, a private military force with ties to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, is expected to more than triple to at least 1,000 fighters from about 300 a month ago, just before the invasion, a United States official said on Friday. The official added that the mercenaries would focus on defeating Ukrainian forces in the country’s Donbas region, where Russia-backed separatists have been fighting a war since 2014, and elsewhere in eastern Ukraine.

...
The Russian military signaled on Friday that it might be lowering its war ambitions and focusing on the eastern Donbas region, though military analysts said it remained to be seen whether the move constituted a meaningful shift or was a maneuver to distract attention ahead of another offensive.

This new focus on the east? I'll believe it when they pull out of the rest of Ukraine.

 

[lpetrich]

U.S. Indirectly Assists Ukraine With Intelligence on Russia

AS HAWKISH MEMBERS of both parties and the press call on President Joe Biden to pursue military involvement in Ukraine, including by implementing a “no-fly zone,” a complicated tightrope act by U.S. intelligence is receiving relatively little public attention. Current and former U.S. officials knowledgeable about the operations told The Intercept that the U.S. military has deployed extensive ISR — or intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance — assets to countries neighboring Ukraine to monitor developments within the embattled nation. The sophisticated intelligence regime requires the Biden administration to walk a fine line in which one wrong step could spell disaster: providing Ukraine with as much assistance as possible without becoming an active participant in the war and risking a direct conflict with nuclear-armed Russia. The balance relies on the assumption that Russia will recognize and respect the United States’s compliance with its self-imposed rules.

The assets are largely aircraft tasked with flying along the borders between Ukraine and its NATO-allied neighbors, which must be careful not to cross into Ukrainian airspace. Capable of peering deep inside the country, the aircraft glean intelligence that is then passed onto the Ukrainians, according to two former U.S. officials knowledgeable about current operations. The aircraft include MQ-9 “Reaper” drones, Boeing RC-135 “Rivet Joints,” and Boeing E-3 Sentry “AWACS,” which have been used to eavesdrop on communications and collect imagery intelligence, according to one of the former officials, a retired CIA officer. A current U.S. Army signals intelligence officer said that the U.S. had deployed many of the ISR assets to neighboring countries in February, following Russia’s massive troop buildup along the Ukrainian border. Open-source flight data shows the same models of aircraft positioned over Poland, Romania, and the Black Sea.

 

[Jayjay]

More Russian Mercenaries Deploying to Ukraine to Take On Greater Role in War - The New York Times

Russian mercenaries with combat experience in Syria and Libya are gearing up to assume an increasingly active role in a phase of the war in Ukraine that Moscow now says is its top priority: fighting in the country’s east.

The number of mercenaries deployed to Ukraine from the Wagner Group, a private military force with ties to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, is expected to more than triple to at least 1,000 fighters from about 300 a month ago, just before the invasion, a United States official said on Friday. The official added that the mercenaries would focus on defeating Ukrainian forces in the country’s Donbas region, where Russia-backed separatists have been fighting a war since 2014, and elsewhere in eastern Ukraine.

...
The Russian military signaled on Friday that it might be lowering its war ambitions and focusing on the eastern Donbas region, though military analysts said it remained to be seen whether the move constituted a meaningful shift or was a maneuver to distract attention ahead of another offensive.

This new focus on the east? I'll believe it when they pull out of the rest of Ukraine.

Rest of Ukraine is a diversion to keep Ukraine's forces busy. Missiles will continue to rain down, but no more additional troops or 60-mile tank convoys.

 

[steve_bank]

The problem is most nations reserve a right to wage war of it deems neceesary

Our economy is designed to need it.

Arms is big business. You can trace it back to Krupp in WWI for modern weapons.

Krupp - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[SLD]

This retired general also thinks that Putin and his generals overestimated the power of their military and underestimated the resilience of Ukrainian defense forces, which include a strong citizen militia component:

Putin will soon have 'no choice' but to stop his invasion of Ukraine, former US general says​

May have just happened with the announcement that they have finished phase 1. They’re now shifting to freeing Donetsk and Luhansk. I wonder if they’ll have better luck there. They’ll have lines of support straight back to Russia, and maybe more support in the areas they already occupy, and have occupied for 8 years. But can they push past their previous lines of control? How will they deal with Mariupol; they still haven’t been able to penetrate into the city and face stiff resistance and mounting casualties. And now there are reports that they are losing control of Kherson, but that battle rages on.

If they pull their forces out from around Kiev and Kharkiv, it will be seen as a major loss that may seriously jeopardize Putin’s standing. He can still stay in power, like Saddam Hussein, but isolated and alone. But I think at some point the Russian people rise up against him. Actually I don’t think he’s like Saddam. He’s not that much of an absolute ruler.

 

[steve_bank]

I wonder if the Russian zones will really like living under Putin.

Be careful what yiu ask for you mightjust get it?

 

[blastula]

Shoigu hadn't been seen much the last month. This may be a contagious kind of heart attack.