How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[blastula]

Sure, it's all going according to plan, you bet.

 

[Ford]

Heard an interesting stat today. Even if you go by more conservative estimates (US, NATO, and a quickly retracted Russian news article from a few days ago), Russia has lost around 10,000 soldiers KIA. To put things into perspective, that is more than the total US combat deaths since the end of Vietnam. I checked the math. Grenada, Panama, Gulf War, Iraq War II - Electric Boogaloo, Afghanistan, and even events like the Beirut bombing, the operations in Bosnia and Kosovo. Just under 6k fatalities in all of them.


Russia has lost more than that (estimated) in a month. Fighting a country that was supposed to fall in days.


This is a catastrophic failure on a number of levels. The outcome is still undecided (though Russia is already signaling that they're abandoning total victory), but the bear nobody wanted to poke has been exposed as a weak, mangy animal. The leader described by some as "strong" or "cagey" no longer deserves the grudging respect (or open admiration) afforded him. In the near term his country is facing some not-inconsiderable sanctions, he has reinvigorated NATO and the EU, and the long term economic impact to Russia could be very bad. Vlad thought he was restoring "Greater Russia." He may have done serious damage to his country instead, and the geopolitical ramifications could be even worse.

 

[TV and credit cards]

So Operation Forlorn Hope was a rousing success. I guess it’s easier to make up your goals after the fact.
For Putin to say, “Yeah, I meant to do that.” is to say he knew all along just how incompetent, dispirited, and ill prepared his forces are.

 

[marc]

On to Phase two…
Phase three: Profit!

*um, but what is phase two?*


Russia is going to feel this for a long time. Even if they got Trump back in office and lifted all sanctions, most of those foreign investors are not coming back. And the EU will be investing big time in cutting their need for Russian fuel.

 

[AGodForTheAtheist]

Russia is at it again:

Russia planning massive military offensive against Ukraine involving 175,000 troops, U.S. intelligence warns

I don't think that severe economic consequences are going to deter Russia. I know that the west has been helping Ukraine up it's defensive capability. It will be painful for Russia to invade. Perhaps invasion could be prevented if Nato moved troops directly into Ukraine. But that seems like just temping WW3.

Another option is to have the shut Russia from the Belgium-based SWIFT system of financial payments that moves money among thousands of banks around the world. This would hurt Russia great. It could cut them off half their oil export revenue and a third of their foreign trade. I've seen it reported that
Russia depends on its oil and natural gas exports for more than one-third of its federal revenues, and depends on SWIFT to make the petrodollars flow.

It is quite simple… simply make an agreement that no country may interfere in the commerce necessary for the survival of another.
Or just go use all our nukes and put an end to this insanity. No one will survive a a nuclear hollocaust except those on the planet of the apes… welcome to your new reality…

 

[Elixir]

Shoigu hadn't been seen much the last month. This may be a contagious kind of heart attack.

Right? This is the sort of thing that can resolve spontaneously, or cause sudden death at any moment.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Russia is at it again:

Russia planning massive military offensive against Ukraine involving 175,000 troops, U.S. intelligence warns

I don't think that severe economic consequences are going to deter Russia. I know that the west has been helping Ukraine up it's defensive capability. It will be painful for Russia to invade. Perhaps invasion could be prevented if Nato moved troops directly into Ukraine. But that seems like just temping WW3.

Another option is to have the shut Russia from the Belgium-based SWIFT system of financial payments that moves money among thousands of banks around the world. This would hurt Russia great. It could cut them off half their oil export revenue and a third of their foreign trade. I've seen it reported that
Russia depends on its oil and natural gas exports for more than one-third of its federal revenues, and depends on SWIFT to make the petrodollars flow.

It is quite simple… simply make an agreement that no country may interfere in the commerce necessary for the survival of another.
Or just go use all our nukes and put an end to this insanity. No one will survive a a nuclear hollocaust except those on the planet of the apes… welcome to your new reality…

What makes you think that any kind of agreement would work with the Russians. Putin has zero credibility.

 

[Elixir]

Putin has zero credibility.

It’s quite simple, alright.
Ukraine had an agreement with Russia. They give up nukes, their sovereignty is guaranteed. So they gave up nukes.
Then Pootey changed his mind. Now he’s trying to bomb them into oblivion for no good reason.
So much for “agreements” involving Pootey’s Russia.

 

[Thomas II]

 

[AGodForTheAtheist]

Russia is at it again:

Russia planning massive military offensive against Ukraine involving 175,000 troops, U.S. intelligence warns

I don't think that severe economic consequences are going to deter Russia. I know that the west has been helping Ukraine up it's defensive capability. It will be painful for Russia to invade. Perhaps invasion could be prevented if Nato moved troops directly into Ukraine. But that seems like just temping WW3.

Another option is to have the shut Russia from the Belgium-based SWIFT system of financial payments that moves money among thousands of banks around the world. This would hurt Russia great. It could cut them off half their oil export revenue and a third of their foreign trade. I've seen it reported that
Russia depends on its oil and natural gas exports for more than one-third of its federal revenues, and depends on SWIFT to make the petrodollars flow.

It is quite simple… simply make an agreement that no country may interfere in the commerce necessary for the survival of another.
Or just go use all our nukes and put an end to this insanity. No one will survive a a nuclear hollocaust except those on the planet of the apes… welcome to your new reality…

What makes you think that any kind of agreement would work with the Russians. Putin has zero credibility.

Excuse me but until NATO threatened to support Ukraine and upset the balance of the economy. There was no war. Now thousands have died because the Ukraine decided it wants to hold all of Europe hostage. I do not blame Russia for protecting the world from this EU NATO threat to the Entire European peaceful existence.

 

[Thomas II]

 

[AGodForTheAtheist]

Putin has zero credibility.

It’s quite simple, alright.
Ukraine had an agreement with Russia. They give up nukes, their sovereignty is guaranteed. So they gave up nukes.
Then Pootey changed his mind. Now he’s trying to bomb them into oblivion for no good reason.
So much for “agreements” involving Pootey’s Russia.

It was Ukraine that decided to join NATO. And the EU… and upset the commerce of the entire continent t.. now millions of Russian are threatened with starvation because of the Ukraine.. THAT is worth Russia trying to protect its people… Stop defending the Ukrainian trouble makers. Russia ha a right to defend itself from the Ukrainian threat to their people.

 

[ZiprHead]

Putin has zero credibility.

It’s quite simple, alright.
Ukraine had an agreement with Russia. They give up nukes, their sovereignty is guaranteed. So they gave up nukes.
Then Pootey changed his mind. Now he’s trying to bomb them into oblivion for no good reason.
So much for “agreements” involving Pootey’s Russia.

It was Ukraine that decided to join NATO. And the EU… and upset the commerce of the entire continent t.. now millions of Russian are threatened with starvation because of the Ukraine.. THAT is worth Russia trying to protect its people… Stop defending the Ukrainian trouble makers. Russia ha a right to defend itself from the Ukrainian threat to their people.

Where do you come up with this... stuff, to put it mildly?

 

[AGodForTheAtheist]

Putin has zero credibility.

It’s quite simple, alright.
Ukraine had an agreement with Russia. They give up nukes, their sovereignty is guaranteed. So they gave up nukes.
Then Pootey changed his mind. Now he’s trying to bomb them into oblivion for no good reason.
So much for “agreements” involving Pootey’s Russia.

It was Ukraine that decided to join NATO. And the EU… and upset the commerce of the entire continent t.. now millions of Russian are threatened with starvation because of the Ukraine.. THAT is worth Russia trying to protect its people… Stop defending the Ukrainian trouble makers. Russia ha a right to defend itself from the Ukrainian threat to their people.

Where do you come up with this... stuff, to put it mildly?

Exactly. TRY THINKING.. from all sides instead of being brainwashed by the Ukrainian Power Grab. Sneaky Ukrainian political attack using Russia as the big bad wolf when it is the thee little pigs that are causing the problem. By using NATO and the EU to bully Russia into protecting itself.

 

[Hermit]

It was Ukraine that decided to join NATO. And the EU… and upset the commerce of the entire continent t.. now millions of Russian are threatened with starvation because of the Ukraine.. THAT is worth Russia trying to protect its people… Stop defending the Ukrainian trouble makers. Russia ha a right to defend itself from the Ukrainian threat to their people.

Where do you come up with this... stuff, to put it mildly?

I use simple evidence logic and reason..

 

[AGodForTheAtheist]

I am not sure if your grin is one of agreement or one of sarcasm…

 

[Politesse]

Heard an interesting stat today. Even if you go by more conservative estimates (US, NATO, and a quickly retracted Russian news article from a few days ago), Russia has lost around 10,000 soldiers KIA. To put things into perspective, that is more than the total US combat deaths since the end of Vietnam. I checked the math. Grenada, Panama, Gulf War, Iraq War II - Electric Boogaloo, Afghanistan, and even events like the Beirut bombing, the operations in Bosnia and Kosovo. Just under 6k fatalities in all of them.


Russia has lost more than that (estimated) in a month. Fighting a country that was supposed to fall in days.


This is a catastrophic failure on a number of levels.

And a tragedy in its own right. They were just boys, most of them. Raised in an authoritarian state surrounded by propaganda and paranoia. I will not cheer this kind of pointless bloodshed. But it is on Putin's hands. I don't blame Ukrainians for defending their own country against invasion.

 

[Elixir]

Exactly. TRY THINKING..

I'm thinking...
I'm thinking your idiocy is like asserting that America in under threat from Mexican invaders and their Costa Rican enablers have the United States surrounded, just as Ukraine has surrounded and attacked the poor little Russian Bear Cub.

Do you think AT ALL before posting about "the Ukranian threat to the USSR Russia"??

I am not sure if your grin is one of agreement or one of sarcasm…

That alone speaks to your level of comprehension.

 

[AGodForTheAtheist]

Exactly. TRY THINKING..

I'm thinking...
I'm thinking your idiocy is like asserting that America in under threat from Mexican invaders and their Costa Rican enablers have the United States surrounded, just as Ukraine has surrounded and attacked the poor little Russian Bear Cub.

Do you think AT ALL before posting about "the Ukranian threat to the USSR Russia"??

I am not sure if your grin is one of agreement or one of sarcasm…

That alone speaks to your level of comprehension.

Ohhh you are one of those? That explains it.

 

[Elixir]

I do not blame Russia for protecting the world from this EU NATO threat

Who has NATO ever invaded and occupied?
NOBODY
Who has Ukraine invaded and occupied?
NOBODY

Who has Russia invaded and occupied?
Ukraine (2022), Syria Ukraine/Crimea, Georgia, Chechnya
Afghanistan, Czechoslovakia, China, Hungary, Germany, Poland, Hungary, Austria, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, Finland, Norway, Korea, Japan, Yugoslavia, Iran, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Romania/Moldova...

And that's just for starters, dude. Get a grip: Russia is the attacker, Russia violated their own promise, Russia is committing war crimes.
And you're all for it.
Talk about "one of those" ... Mr Intelligent design has not evolved one bit.