How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Elixir]

The best that Ukraine can hope for is to stop the Russian advance, and then negotiate a peace deal with reasonable security guarantees.

There are NO guarantees when dealing with Russia.
They already "guaranteed" Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up their nukes.
Russia's guarantees are not worth the oxygen they spend lying about them.

The guarantees would have to be based on something other than Russia's pinky promise. Such as NATO air patrols, or that Russia withdraws behind borders that Ukraine can easily defend. For example, Russian presence in Kherson city on east side of Dnipro is unacceptable, but if Russia withdrew behind the river, it would form a natural barrier that would make it very hard to cross again.

Russia has a lot of border, and there will always be a "weakest point" they can exploit to invade their neighbors.
Unless they solve their own - and the world's - problem by getting rid of Putler and his ilk, the only actual solution will be to break Russia up.
Of course there's always the alternative; let the Russians attack whoever they want, and make as much money as possible providing "defensive materiele" to their victims.

 

[Jayjay]

The best that Ukraine can hope for is to stop the Russian advance, and then negotiate a peace deal with reasonable security guarantees.

There are NO guarantees when dealing with Russia.
They already "guaranteed" Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up their nukes.
Russia's guarantees are not worth the oxygen they spend lying about them.

The guarantees would have to be based on something other than Russia's pinky promise. Such as NATO air patrols, or that Russia withdraws behind borders that Ukraine can easily defend. For example, Russian presence in Kherson city on east side of Dnipro is unacceptable, but if Russia withdrew behind the river, it would form a natural barrier that would make it very hard to cross again.

Russia has a lot of border, and there will always be a "weakest point" they can exploit to invade their neighbors.
Unless they solve their own - and the world's - problem by getting rid of Putler and his ilk, the only actual solution will be to break Russia up.
Of course there's always the alternative; let the Russians attack whoever they want, and make as much money as possible providing "defensive materiele" to their victims.

My point is, that it seems (even according to that think tank) that Ukraine needs wholly new training regiment for privates and officers, and the infrastructure to support it, if it intends to take back the occupied territory. That's not going happen fast, it will take several years at best. No counter-attacks means that Ukraine will have to swallow its pride and make some sort of deal.

In that time, Russia will have learned a few tricks of its own, and more importantly, it will have entrenched itself both militarily and politically in South-Eastern Ukraine. The local people will have been brainwashed with years propaganda, or replaced with people from other parts of Russia, and Russian public will consider the land as sacred and forever Russian as Crimea. A generation of children will have grown who've learned nothing in school except what the Russian government wants them to learn.

Meanwhile, Ukraine would have either suffered devastating losses without much progress, or alternatively (a worse case scenario in my opinion), settled for a de facto ceasefire and people would've been accustomed to the relative calm, much like what happened after the 2014 invasion. Same here in the west. We're not going to continue to spend trillions on a war that doesn't seem to have an end.

But hey, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Russia is weaker than it seems and will crumble. Maybe Ukraine can adapt faster. If so, I'll be very happy to admit that I was mistaken.

 

[ZiprHead]

Russia’s Kremenchuk Claims Versus the Evidence - Bellingcat

 

[ZiprHead]

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 3

July 3, 7:45 pm ET​

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Russian forces have likely secured the Luhansk Oblast border, although pockets of Ukrainian resistance may remain in and around Lysychansk. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that Russian forces have captured Luhansk Oblast on July 3, after seizing Lysychansk and settlements on the Luhansk Oblast administrative border.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff also announced that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Lysychansk to avoid personnel losses.[2] Russian forces have likely not fully cleared Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast as of July 3, despite Shoigu’s announcement. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that Russian forces are still fighting within Lysychansk to defeat remaining encircled Ukrainian forces, but the Ukrainian withdrawal means that Russian forces will almost certainly complete their clearing operations relatively quickly.[3]

The Kremlin likely seeks to expand Russian state control over private Russian companies that support elements of Russia’s military industrial base. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on July 3 that the Russian government’s inability to pay Russian firms supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine is degrading Russia’s ability to repair damaged vehicles. The GUR reported that the directors of Russian military vehicle repair centers are not accepting new Russian equipment for repair because the Russian military has not paid these centers for previous work.[7] Recently proposed Russian legislation suggests that Kremlin leadership shares GUR’s assessment. Russian legislators in the Russian State Duma submitted a bill on June 30 that would empower the Kremlin to introduce “special measures in the economic sphere” enabling the Russian government to force private Russian companies to provide supplies for Russian military operations.[8] The bill prohibits Russian businesses from refusing to fulfil Russian government procurement orders connected to Russian military operations.

 

[Jayjay]

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 3

July 3, 7:45 pm ET​

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Russian forces have likely secured the Luhansk Oblast border, although pockets of Ukrainian resistance may remain in and around Lysychansk. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced that Russian forces have captured Luhansk Oblast on July 3, after seizing Lysychansk and settlements on the Luhansk Oblast administrative border.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff also announced that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Lysychansk to avoid personnel losses.[2] Russian forces have likely not fully cleared Lysychansk and Luhansk Oblast as of July 3, despite Shoigu’s announcement. The Russian Defense Ministry stated that Russian forces are still fighting within Lysychansk to defeat remaining encircled Ukrainian forces, but the Ukrainian withdrawal means that Russian forces will almost certainly complete their clearing operations relatively quickly.[3]

The Kremlin likely seeks to expand Russian state control over private Russian companies that support elements of Russia’s military industrial base. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on July 3 that the Russian government’s inability to pay Russian firms supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine is degrading Russia’s ability to repair damaged vehicles. The GUR reported that the directors of Russian military vehicle repair centers are not accepting new Russian equipment for repair because the Russian military has not paid these centers for previous work.[7] Recently proposed Russian legislation suggests that Kremlin leadership shares GUR’s assessment. Russian legislators in the Russian State Duma submitted a bill on June 30 that would empower the Kremlin to introduce “special measures in the economic sphere” enabling the Russian government to force private Russian companies to provide supplies for Russian military operations.[8] The bill prohibits Russian businesses from refusing to fulfil Russian government procurement orders connected to Russian military operations.

Russia is doing a gradual move towards wartime economy. Without actually admitting that it's a war. Same with the covert mobilization: instead of outright saying that they're in war, they're step by step introducing measures that are indistinguishable from official mobilization. I think this gradual nature will make it less shocking to the people.

 

[ZiprHead]

Also from the above link:

Ukrainian partisans reportedly derailed a Russian armored train carrying ammunition near Melitopol on July 2.[33] Kremlin-sponsored outlet RIA Novosti acknowledged that the train derailed around Yakymivka, but claimed that the incident was an accident.[34] Ukrainian partisans previously targeted Russian armored trains and locomotives in Melitopol in late April and mid-May.[35]

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Belarus president and Putin pal is calling for European 'cleansing'

When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his invasion of Ukraine he cited the "self-cleansing of society" and the "purification" of the motherland. It led foreign policy experts to fear that the invasion was part of a larger war of genocide.By the end of May, Russian state TV was...

www.rawstory.com

Bizarre rantings from Belarus leader Lukashenko. Such as demiltarizing Ukraiine and the entire NATO alliance.

Belarus has a population of 9.3 millions.

 

[bilby]

And the obvious counter is to just have more smaller depots instead of large ones, which I'm pretty sure Russia is in the process of doing.

That’s a good counter against artillery strikes, but makes security against sabotage much harder. It’s a trade off that usually favours large ammo dumps when operating in occupied territories; By forcing the dispersal of these dumps, they become more vulnerable, or at the very least tie up a larger number of men in their defence, making those men unavailable for offensive operations.

 

[Copernicus]

And the obvious counter is to just have more smaller depots instead of large ones, which I'm pretty sure Russia is in the process of doing.

That’s a good counter against artillery strikes, but makes security against sabotage much harder. It’s a trade off that usually favours large ammo dumps when operating in occupied territories; By forcing the dispersal of these dumps, they become more vulnerable, or at the very least tie up a larger number of men in their defence, making those men unavailable for offensive operations.

I imagine that it would also be a problem for keeping track of inventories in more locations, keeping them stocked, and being able to distribute the ammunition efficiently. That's what I imagine, but I have no expertise in battlefield tactics and logistics.

 

[Jayjay]

Let's run some numbers. According to the RUSI report, Russia is using 20k shells every day versus Ukraine's 6k. If number of ammo dumps is the bottleneck, Ukraine would need to destroy 70% of them just to bring Russia down to parity.

How many dumps does Russia have? Hundreds maybe? Let's say 200. That means 140 locations need to be hit. At current rate, which seems to be about 1 dump per night, that will take 4.5 months. The rate will increase as Ukraine gets more equipment, but also decrease when easier targets are destroyed, so let's assume it's static. That's 4 months to bring Russia's artillery down to the level where both sides are equal, but even then, Russia might have the advantage of better drones and a system of working the artillery.

I think the war will end when both sides reach an equilibrium. That means we might be halfway through.

 

[Jayjay]

Let's run some numbers. According to the RUSI report, Russia is using 20k shells every day versus Ukraine's 6k. If number of ammo dumps is the bottleneck, Ukraine would need to destroy 70% of them just to bring Russia down to parity.

How many dumps does Russia have? Hundreds maybe? Let's say 200. That means 140 locations need to be hit. At current rate, which seems to be about 1 dump per night, that will take 4.5 months. The rate will increase as Ukraine gets more equipment, but also decrease when easier targets are destroyed, so let's assume it's static. That's 4 months to bring Russia's artillery down to the level where both sides are equal, but even then, Russia might have the advantage of better drones and a system of working the artillery.

I think the war will end when both sides reach an equilibrium. That means we might be halfway through.

This math is utterly fallacious. I'll leave it to the readers to figure out why.

 

[barbos]

The best that Ukraine can hope for is to stop the Russian advance, and then negotiate a peace deal with reasonable security guarantees.

There are NO guarantees when dealing with Russia.
They already "guaranteed" Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up their nukes.
Russia's guarantees are not worth the oxygen they spend lying about them.

Totally agree. Russian word is shit.

Actually it's NATO word is shit. Even Ukarainians agree with Russia about that

 

[barbos]

As if the "people's republics" are anything but Russian puppets.

And western "ukrainians" are US puppets and nazis.

We can do it all day long.

 

[barbos]

Let's run some numbers. According to the RUSI report, Russia is using 20k shells every day versus Ukraine's 6k. If number of ammo dumps is the bottleneck, Ukraine would need to destroy 70% of them just to bring Russia down to parity.

How many dumps does Russia have? Hundreds maybe? Let's say 200. That means 140 locations need to be hit. At current rate, which seems to be about 1 dump per night, that will take 4.5 months. The rate will increase as Ukraine gets more equipment, but also decrease when easier targets are destroyed, so let's assume it's static. That's 4 months to bring Russia's artillery down to the level where both sides are equal, but even then, Russia might have the advantage of better drones and a system of working the artillery.

I think the war will end when both sides reach an equilibrium. That means we might be halfway through.

This math is utterly fallacious. I'll leave it to the readers to figure out why.

Because YOU did the math?

 

[Elixir]

As if the "people's republics" are anything but Russian puppets.

And western "ukrainians" are US puppets and nazis.

We can do it all day long.

Yes, we know you can misinform and disinform all day long. But nobody here is buying your BS.

 

[Jayjay]

As if the "people's republics" are anything but Russian puppets.

And western "ukrainians" are US puppets and nazis.

We can do it all day long.

Except that my statement was factually correct, yours is just a baseless taunt.

There is plenty of evidence that the separatist leaders were installed by FSB. Igor Girkin himself is a former Russian FSB agent, not a local from Donetsk or Luhansk. It's public knowledge. And just a while ago, the entire government of the "people's republic" of Donetsk was sacked and replaced by Russians. Not "ethnic Russians from Donbas", but Russian Russians from Russia. What does that tell you?

On the other hand, there is no evidence that the Ukrainian government or "western ukrainians" are working for the CIA. In fact, they're often going against what the west wants them to do. USA wanted Zelensky to flee, but he didn't. If anything, the western nations are currently being puppeteered by Zelensky.

 

[barbos]

Except that my statement was factually correct, yours is just a baseless taunt.

No, Mine was correct, yours is baseless CNN garbage.

 

[barbos]

There is plenty of evidence that the separatist leaders were installed by FSB.

It proves nothing, In fact, that would be dereliction of duty if FSB was NOT involved.
Having said that, anti-maidan revolt in Eastern Ukraine was and is real and popular.
And there is plenty of evidence that CIA and state department were behind maidan itself. I mean, they admitted the whole damn thing. Same thing with Georgia and all the other color revolution crap - all paid by US taxpayers.
So.....

 

[Copernicus]

The best that Ukraine can hope for is to stop the Russian advance, and then negotiate a peace deal with reasonable security guarantees.

There are NO guarantees when dealing with Russia.
They already "guaranteed" Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up their nukes.
Russia's guarantees are not worth the oxygen they spend lying about them.

Totally agree. Russian word is shit.

Actually it's NATO word is shit. Even Ukarainians agree with Russia about that

Since the population of Ukarainia is 0, I finally find something that barbos said to be credible.

 

[Elixir]

Since the population of Ukarainia is 0, I finally find something that barbos said to be credible.

Aren’t those the people who play Ukaleles?