How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

MSN

On Friday, the Pentagon pledged four more of the Lockheed Martin systems, which would bring Ukraine’s total to an even dozen. The HIMARS are part of a $400 million package of arms and ammunition that includes 1,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery shells, which are said to have greater precision.

Despite the small number of HIMARS in the battle, they are having an outsize impact, according to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. “HIMARS have already made a HUUUGE difference on the battlefield,” Reznikov tweeted over the weekend. “More of them as well as [US] ammo & equipment will increase our strength and help to demilitarize the terrorist state.”

In recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have used the deadly-accurate HIMARS system to target Russian ammunition depots, destroying as many as 20, according to media reports from Kyiv and social media posts.

Like I said before, Russia can counter the HIMARS to some degree by decentralizing its ammunition and fuel depots. Which is actually what Ukraine has done already earlier. I think we'll see in a week or latest in two, if Russia is able to resume their operations or not. Ukraine hasn't yet been able to translate this into actual territorial gains, and Ukraine is pretty exhausted too after losing Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Even if Russia can fix its ammunition depot problem, Ukraine will continue to have the ability to strike any stationary target within about 75km from the front line. So if there are no big enough ammo dumps, they can hit bridges, railroads, and buildings. HIMARS are definitely a game changer, but I don't think it's enough all by itself.

 

[Tigers!]

Can we trust John Pilger? I would say do so at your own peril.

Why?

John Pilger never tried to mislead, let alone tell outright lies. In his long career as journalist and commentators he always reported things as he saw them. The problem is that he is an octogenarian now and still feels the need to say meaningful stuff. It has not occurred to him that he has run out of steam. Hence this eight minutes worth of waffle.

In the early 80s Pilger made claims about how he exposed the truth about Pol Pot but he suppressed his sources and took credit for what he did not find out. He was and is a shameless plagiariser. There was a public meeting Melbourne, Australia where he was showing his latest alleged expose of Pol Pot. It descended into a farce and almost a riot when Pilger was challenged by some the audience as to his accuracy and veracity. It was a good night to be there.

Pilger is, was and always will be a shameless liar and relentless self promoter. But you are right that he has run out of steam. Trouble is he ran out of steam in the late 70s.

 

[Hermit]

In the early 80s Pilger made claims about how he exposed the truth about Pol Pot but he suppressed his sources and took credit for what he did not find out. He was and is a shameless plagiariser. There was a public meeting Melbourne, Australia where he was showing his latest alleged expose of Pol Pot. It descended into a farce and almost a riot when Pilger was challenged by some the audience as to his accuracy and veracity. It was a good night to be there.

Pilger is, was and always will be a shameless liar...

Links, please.

... he ran out of steam in the late 70s.

Having watched Utopia (2013) and The Coming War on China (2016), I think he was still going strong until fairly recently. My main objection to Pilger's reportage is that his loathing of the USA - which is justified - leads him to paper over the serious problems concerning Russia, China, the Palestinians and others - which is definitely not. Following the idiotic adage "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" causes repeated serious errors of judgement.

 

[Tigers!]

In the early 80s Pilger made claims about how he exposed the truth about Pol Pot but he suppressed his sources and took credit for what he did not find out. He was and is a shameless plagiariser. There was a public meeting Melbourne, Australia where he was showing his latest alleged expose of Pol Pot. It descended into a farce and almost a riot when Pilger was challenged by some the audience as to his accuracy and veracity. It was a good night to be there.

Pilger is, was and always will be a shameless liar...

Links, please.

... he ran out of steam in the late 70s.

Having watched Utopia (2013) and The Coming War on China (2016), I think he was still going strong until fairly recently. My main objection to Pilger's reportage is that his loathing of the USA - which is justified - leads him to paper over the serious problems concerning Russia, China, the Palestinians and others - which is definitely not. Following the idiotic adage "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" causes repeated serious errors of judgement.

If you want a link to a report about a public screening that the police attended in very early 1980s that barely rated a mention in the local rag? Occurred in inner Melbourne at one of the town halls (Collingwood, Fitzroy etc.?) in 1981 or 1982. ~40 years ago. Might be a wee bit difficult.

 

[Hermit]

In the early 80s Pilger made claims about how he exposed the truth about Pol Pot but he suppressed his sources and took credit for what he did not find out. He was and is a shameless plagiariser. There was a public meeting Melbourne, Australia where he was showing his latest alleged expose of Pol Pot. It descended into a farce and almost a riot when Pilger was challenged by some the audience as to his accuracy and veracity. It was a good night to be there.

Pilger is, was and always will be a shameless liar...

Links, please.

... he ran out of steam in the late 70s.

Having watched Utopia (2013) and The Coming War on China (2016), I think he was still going strong until fairly recently. My main objection to Pilger's reportage is that his loathing of the USA - which is justified - leads him to paper over the serious problems concerning Russia, China, the Palestinians and others - which is definitely not. Following the idiotic adage "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" causes repeated serious errors of judgement.

If you want a link to a report about a public screening that the police attended in very early 1980s that barely rated a mention in the local rag? Occurred in inner Melbourne at one of the town halls (Collingwood, Fitzroy etc.?) in 1981 or 1982. ~40 years ago. Might be a wee bit difficult.

OK, so ~40 years ago there allegedly was a ruckus at a public screening when Pilger was "challenged by some the audience as to his accuracy and veracity". Someone, presumably not you, alleged that "he suppressed his sources and took credit for what he did not find out". It barely rated a mention in the local rag, and no mention of it can be found anywhere else. Based on that alleged incident you conclude that Pilger "was and is a shameless plagiariser" and "was and always will be a shameless liar and relentless self promoter".

 

[Jayjay]

The Russian Duma, a rubber stamp for whatever Putin wants to do next, has been called from its summer recess to a special session on July 15th. Some major announcement is going to happen.

Declaration of war? Acceptance of Donbas or other occupied territory to Russia? Authorization to use nukes?

 

[TV and credit cards]

Kazakhstan flexes while Germany and Canada quiver.
Well it makes sense. Who's most threatened by Russian aggression? The Baltics, Poland, Finland, Kazakhstan; seems those closet, those most threatened by Russian aggression are the ones most will to stand up to it. Those threatened with the political discomfort of economic difficulties are the most timid.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Kazakhstan flexes while Germany and Canada quiver.
Well it makes sense. Who's most threatened by Russian aggression? The Baltics, Poland, Finland, Kazakhstan; seems those closet, those most threatened by Russian aggression are the ones most will to stand up to it. Those threatened with the political discomfort of economic difficulties are the most timid.

Totally agree. I haven't researched why Canada is giving in. But clearly Germany is subservient to Russia. They never should have trusted Russia as their only source of gas. Insane.

 

[ZiprHead]

Those HIMARS appear to be paying off.



Click on it for full view.

 

[ZiprHead]

Another problem for the Russians.

Thread by @noclador on Thread Reader App

@noclador: The sound of russian ammo blowing up in Donetsk. What does this mean for russian logistics? A thread 🧵: Since 2014-15 russia built dozens of ammo dumps hidden in civilian buildings near railway stations i...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[ZiprHead]

Phillips P. OBrien

@PhillipsPOBrien

End of the day update. Really low fire in the Donbas compared to the last few days. We have now passed 19 of the 24 hours of the day there and there is more indicated fire behind Russian lines than forward. Compared to two days ago, difference is signficant.

 

[ItsRonnieYall]

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Russia's invasion of Ukraine is indefensible. The U.S. is right to impose targeted sanctions on Putin & his oligarchs. We also must work with our allies to prepare for a refugee crisis on a massive scale. Finally, any military action must take place with Congressional approval." / Twitter
noting
Catie Edmondson on Twitter: "You don’t see this often, but here’s a letter from 43 lawmakers in both parties — from Gosar and Gaetz to AOC and Bush — urging Biden to receive authorization from Congress before involving US armed forces in the Russia-Ukraine conflict (pix link)" / Twitter

DeFazio, Davidson Lead Bipartisan Letter to Biden Underscoring Congress’s Authority Relating to U.S. involvement in Russia-Ukraine Conflict | Congressman Peter DeFazio
He's from OR-04, my Congressional district.

We strongly urge your administration to respect the separation of powers, U.S. law, and Congress’s constitutional war powers authority. Should your administration seek to introduce U.S. Armed Forces into hostilities or decline to remove any U.S. military personnel currently deployed inside Ukraine from unauthorized hostilities or imminent hostilities, Congress stands ready to deliberate over the potentially monumental implications of such scenarios. The American people, through their representatives in Congress, deserve to have a say before U.S. troops are placed in harm’s way or the U.S. becomes involved in yet another foreign conflict.

The signers:

Barbara Lee, D-CA13, 0.0 -- Eleanor Holmes Norton, D-DC, 0.03 -- Ayanna Pressley, D-MA7, 0.05 -- Jesús G. "Chuy" García, D-IL4, 0.05 -- Pramila Jayapal, D-WA7, 0.07 -- Rashida Tlaib, D-MI13, 0.08 -- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY14, 0.09 -- Earl Blumenauer, D-OR3, 0.1 -- Ilhan Omar, D-MN5, 0.1 -- Raúl M. Grijalva, D-AZ3, 0.11 -- André Carson, D-IN7, 0.12 -- Gwen Moore, D-WI4, 0.13 -- Mark DeSaulnier, D-CA11, 0.14 -- James P. McGovern, D-MA2, 0.15 -- Mark Pocan, D-WI2, 0.17 -- Jared Huffman, D-CA2, 0.21 -- Peter A. DeFazio, D-OR4, 0.27 -- Darren Soto, D-FL9, 0.28 -- John B. Larson, D-CT1, 0.28 -- Lloyd Doggett, D-TX35, 0.29 -- Paul D. Tonko, D-NY20, 0.29 -- Peter Welch, D-VT, 0.29 -- Brad Sherman, D-CA30, 0.34 -- Thomas Massie, R-KY4, 0.52 -- H. Morgan Griffith, R-VA9, 0.63 -- Jeff Fortenberry, R-NE1, 0.66 -- Warren Davidson, R-OH8, 0.66 -- Michael C. Burgess, M.D., R-TX26, 0.68 -- David Schweikert, R-AZ6, 0.7 -- Ben Cline, R-VA6, 0.72 -- Louie Gohmert, R-TX1, 0.75 -- Andy Biggs, R-AZ5, 0.8 -- Bill Posey, R-FL8, 0.86 -- Matt Gaetz, R-FL1, 0.9 -- Alex X. Mooney, R-WV2, 0.92 -- Paul A. Gosar, D.D.S, R-AZ4, 0.92 -- Cori Bush, D-MO1, new -- Jamaal Bowman, Ed.D, D-NY16, new -- Kat Cammack, R-FL3, new -- Matthew Rosendale, Sr., R-MT, new -- Nancy Mace, R-SC1, new -- Peter Meijer, R-MI3, new -- Yvette Herrell, R-NM2, new

With party, district, and 2020 govtrack.us ideology score, when available.

So they go all the way from The Squad to the likes of Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar.

It is nice they want Biden to ask Congress's permission to start WWIII.

HOLY SHIT... can the effing world governments stop this madness? I can't imagine how the poor Ukrainian people are suffering right now

Probably not until after their brokers/donors secure a return on their investments.

I would have thought that by now (like 5 months in) they would've secured a good ROI and call it quits

 

[Jayjay]

This is just Russia celebrating its victory with fireworks, as a goodwill gesture towards Ukraine.

 

[Jayjay]

Whether it's due to HIMARS blowing up their ammo, or just exhaustion of the troops, Russia is clearly taking a break:

 

[Jayjay]

But, in a war there are no wonder weapons. Everything has a counter. Russia will redouble its efforts to find and destroy the HIMARS launchers, and improve its defenses against the attacks. What Ukraine needs now is a counter to Russia's counter. Radars and SAMs or MANPADS to shoot down UAVs that Russia will use to try to find the HIMARS launchers.

 

[Harry Bosch]

But, in a war there are no wonder weapons. Everything has a counter. Russia will redouble its efforts to find and destroy the HIMARS launchers, and improve its defenses against the attacks. What Ukraine needs now is a counter to Russia's counter. Radars and SAMs or MANPADS to shoot down UAVs that Russia will use to try to find the HIMARS launchers.

But, in a war there are no wonder weapons. Everything has a counter. Russia will redouble its efforts to find and destroy the HIMARS launchers, and improve its defenses against the attacks. What Ukraine needs now is a counter to Russia's counter. Radars and SAMs or MANPADS to shoot down UAVs that Russia will use to try to find the HIMARS launchers.

Yes, the Iranians are sending drones to Russia. I've been arguing for years that the US is too tough on Iran. I favored Obama's treaty with Iran. Fuck Iran. Their support of Russia will extend this war leading to misery for Ukrainians and higher gas prices for everyone.

 

[Copernicus]

Phillips P. OBrien

@PhillipsPOBrien

End of the day update. Really low fire in the Donbas compared to the last few days. We have now passed 19 of the 24 hours of the day there and there is more indicated fire behind Russian lines than forward. Compared to two days ago, difference is signficant.

The women narrating that video are speaking some Ukrainian, not just Russian.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

But, in a war there are no wonder weapons. Everything has a counter. Russia will redouble its efforts to find and destroy the HIMARS launchers, and improve its defenses against the attacks. What Ukraine needs now is a counter to Russia's counter. Radars and SAMs or MANPADS to shoot down UAVs that Russia will use to try to find the HIMARS launchers.

Radar guided guns are probably quite adequate against UAVs.

 

[Jayjay]

Even more importantly, Ukraine needs to be able to capitalize the temporary confusion somehow. Doesn't seem like there have been any counter-attacks, which is a bad sign.

 

[Jayjay]

Another problem that Ukraine has is that its government is handling the economy very poorly, even given the circumstances. There are price controls and other socialist nonsense that has crippled the private sector. Western governments should look into that as well and provide expert advice how to fix it, rather than just pour money to bail out Ukraine.