How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

I've bitched and moaned about Ukraine's inability to counter Russian artillery before. Ukrainian media has also picked up on the deficiencies of Ukrainian counter-artillery capabilities:

Why Ukraine struggles to combat Russia’s artillery superiority

Russian heavy artillery — the Kremlin’s deadliest weapon against Ukraine — is still a superior force that has no mercy. Almost six months into the full-scale invasion, Russian advances remain generally stalled. But despite much effort with Western-provided advanced weaponry, Russia's artillery...

kyivindependent.com

 

[ZiprHead]

Ukrainian forces struck bridge over dam in Nova Kakhovka

On August 12, Ukrainian defenders struck a road bridge over the dam in Nova Kakhovka, which was used by the invaders. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

On August 12, Ukrainian defenders struck a road bridge over the dam in Nova Kakhovka, which was used by the invaders.
The spokesperson of the Operational Command South announced this, Ukrinform reports.
On August 12, the Ukrainian aviation launched five strikes on strongholds and accumulations of weapons and equipment in the Bashtanka, Beryslav and Kherson districts.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Are they having a sale or something? Ours have arms.

 

[Jayjay]

I think the fake SAM batteries are a good idea: non-zero probability of looking enough like the real thing on satellite or drone footage to make your opponent waste their ammo. Showing that on tv though kind of gives it away...

 

[Elixir]

I think the fake SAM batteries are a good idea: non-zero probability of looking enough like the real thing on satellite or drone footage to make your opponent waste their ammo. Showing that on tv though kind of gives it away...

They showed a real one and said it was a fake?

 

[Jayjay]

Ukrainian forces struck bridge over dam in Nova Kakhovka

On August 12, Ukrainian defenders struck a road bridge over the dam in Nova Kakhovka, which was used by the invaders. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

On August 12, Ukrainian defenders struck a road bridge over the dam in Nova Kakhovka, which was used by the invaders.
The spokesperson of the Operational Command South announced this, Ukrinform reports.
On August 12, the Ukrainian aviation launched five strikes on strongholds and accumulations of weapons and equipment in the Bashtanka, Beryslav and Kherson districts.

What's interesting here is that apparently Ukraine has American anti-radar HARM missiles, despite not having any known launch mechanism for them. That probably allows them to hit Russian radars and conduct air strikes. Very good news.

Now what Ukraine still needs is anti-EW missiles or loitering munitions (or maybe HARM can do that too? I don't know), and drones that can spot for artillery.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I think the fake SAM batteries are a good idea: non-zero probability of looking enough like the real thing on satellite or drone footage to make your opponent waste their ammo. Showing that on tv though kind of gives it away...

Ukraine no doubt knows they have fake SAMs, it's a standard military tactic.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Ukrainian forces struck bridge over dam in Nova Kakhovka

On August 12, Ukrainian defenders struck a road bridge over the dam in Nova Kakhovka, which was used by the invaders. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

On August 12, Ukrainian defenders struck a road bridge over the dam in Nova Kakhovka, which was used by the invaders.
The spokesperson of the Operational Command South announced this, Ukrinform reports.
On August 12, the Ukrainian aviation launched five strikes on strongholds and accumulations of weapons and equipment in the Bashtanka, Beryslav and Kherson districts.

What's interesting here is that apparently Ukraine has American anti-radar HARM missiles, despite not having any known launch mechanism for them. That probably allows them to hit Russian radars and conduct air strikes. Very good news.

Now what Ukraine still needs is anti-EW missiles or loitering munitions (or maybe HARM can do that too? I don't know), and drones that can spot for artillery.

I believe HARM can be used against EW in general, not just radar--anything that radiates. It just hauls ass, though, it's not loitering.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Ukrainian Jets Are Firing American Anti-Radar Missiles

No air force has ever integrated American-made AGM-88 High-Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles on a Soviet plane type—until now. It's given the Ukrainians a highly effective weapon to use to destroy Russian air-defenses in Ukraine.

www.forbes.com

The U.S. has supplied HARMs to Ukraine which have been fired from Ukrainian aircraft. Confirmed by the U.S. government.

 

[TV and credit cards]

As calls grow louder in the European Union for a ban on Schengen visas for Russians, thousands of Russian tourists are using Finland as a transit country to the West.
Mad Vlad has made a point of keeping the Russian middle class ignorant about and insulated from the war in Ukraine. He’ll muster up Russia’s poor to go to war. Meanwhile life goes on for the rest of Russia, including vacationing in the EU.
The west isn’t going to persuade Vlad to stop his evil ways anytime soon. We need to employ the Russian middle class in our efforts.

 

[Harry Bosch]

As calls grow louder in the European Union for a ban on Schengen visas for Russians, thousands of Russian tourists are using Finland as a transit country to the West.
Mad Vlad has made a point of keeping the Russian middle class ignorant about and insulated from the war in Ukraine. He’ll muster up Russia’s poor to go to war. Meanwhile life goes on for the rest of Russia, including vacationing in the EU.
The west isn’t going to persuade Vlad to stop his evil ways anytime soon. We need to employ the Russian middle class in our efforts.

I'm not going to lie. This is a tough issue for me. Watch this piece of shit Russian tourist harass Ukrainian refugees in Austria:



It's so unfair that Russian civilians go to foreign countries for vacation; while Ukrainian civilians go to foreign countries to survive. But I'm thinking that maybe visiting other countries will show some Russians how much they are losing by living in a dictatorship that is constantly at war.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[marc]

Seems that another major problem for Russian military is social media posting. This is on level with Jan 6 rioters putting up videos of themselves in the capitol.

Apparently a Russian propagandist posted pictures of himself visiting a Wagner Group base in Donbas. In one of the pictures you can see the sign on the building that included the address. That was enough to program coordinates for some HIMARS missiles, and now one less mercenary base.

Ukraine Wipes Out Mercenary HQ After Russian Posts Photo

Sergei Sreda, a Russian propagandist, posted photos online of his visit to a Wagner Group base in Donbas. One small problem though: he forgot to cover the street signs.

crooksandliars.com

 

[Gospel]

As calls grow louder in the European Union for a ban on Schengen visas for Russians, thousands of Russian tourists are using Finland as a transit country to the West.
Mad Vlad has made a point of keeping the Russian middle class ignorant about and insulated from the war in Ukraine. He’ll muster up Russia’s poor to go to war. Meanwhile life goes on for the rest of Russia, including vacationing in the EU.
The west isn’t going to persuade Vlad to stop his evil ways anytime soon. We need to employ the Russian middle class in our efforts.

I'm not going to lie. This is a tough issue for me. Watch this piece of shit Russian tourist harass Ukrainian refugees in Austria:



It's so unfair that Russian civilians go to foreign countries for vacation; while Ukrainian civilians go to foreign countries to survive. But I'm thinking that maybe visiting other countries will show some Russians how much they are losing by living in a dictatorship that is constantly at war.

Does Finland not have laws against racial discrimination? If so, I'd think they could use this footage to detain, deport and prevent her from returning to the country with the obligatory public statement that "We do not tolerate racism in our country". I'm ignorant of Finland laws so my presumption can be wrong.

 

[bilby]

Seems that another major problem for Russian military is social media posting. This is on level with Jan 6 rioters putting up videos of themselves in the capitol.

Apparently a Russian propagandist posted pictures of himself visiting a Wagner Group base in Donbas. In one of the pictures you can see the sign on the building that included the address. That was enough to program coordinates for some HIMARS missiles, and now one less mercenary base.

Ukraine Wipes Out Mercenary HQ After Russian Posts Photo

Sergei Sreda, a Russian propagandist, posted photos online of his visit to a Wagner Group base in Donbas. One small problem though: he forgot to cover the street signs.

crooksandliars.com

By default, most phone cameras append GPS latitude and longitude data to photos in the EXIF data. A photo need not include a street sign or landmark in order to reveal the precise location at which it was taken.

Few conscripts would be aware of this, much less sufficiently savvy to delete that EXIF data before posting to social media.

 

[marc]

Seems that another major problem for Russian military is social media posting. This is on level with Jan 6 rioters putting up videos of themselves in the capitol.

Apparently a Russian propagandist posted pictures of himself visiting a Wagner Group base in Donbas. In one of the pictures you can see the sign on the building that included the address. That was enough to program coordinates for some HIMARS missiles, and now one less mercenary base.

Ukraine Wipes Out Mercenary HQ After Russian Posts Photo

Sergei Sreda, a Russian propagandist, posted photos online of his visit to a Wagner Group base in Donbas. One small problem though: he forgot to cover the street signs.

crooksandliars.com

By default, most phone cameras append GPS latitude and longitude data to photos in the EXIF data. A photo need not include a street sign or landmark in order to reveal the precise location at which it was taken.

Few conscripts would be aware of this, much less sufficiently savvy to delete that EXIF data before posting to social media.

Good point. The spirit of “Loose lips sink ships” is way more applicable today than in WWII. Soldiers need to get that drilled into their heads, or something else will do the drilling

 

[ZiprHead]

Moscow Canceling Registrations Of Opposition Candidates By The Dozens As Political Clampdown Intensifies

Moscow has been canceling en masse the registration of opposition candidates for municipal elections next month as the Kremlin clamps down on dissent.

www.rferl.org

 

[ZiprHead]

Russia leaves 20,000 soldiers stranded in tactical withdrawal to the east

Mykolayiv governor apologises to ‘stupid orcs’ now isolated on Dnipro’s west bank as MoD says they will be unable to defend their position

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Jayjay]

Russia leaves 20,000 soldiers stranded in tactical withdrawal to the east

Mykolayiv governor apologises to ‘stupid orcs’ now isolated on Dnipro’s west bank as MoD says they will be unable to defend their position

www.telegraph.co.uk

I can't read the article as it's behind a paywall, but the fact that Russia has doubled down on Kherson tells to me that they're planning on keeping it rather than stranding their soldiers. Ukraine first hit the bridges almost a month ago, but hasn't been able to capitalize (except perhaps by stopping further Russian advances). Russia has at least four ferries over the river as confirmed by satellite footage, possibly even more, and the railway bridge may still be operational.

I think if Ukraine doesn't get back Kherson, it will eventually lose the entire South and that leaves also the supply lines to Zaporizhzhia city vulnerable which might mean losing also swathes of land in the East.

EDIT: And there's less than four weeks to the "referendum". ISW even speculates that it might happen sooner, but because the Russian Duma won't come into session until September 12, I'm not sure if the timeline for annexation has changed even if they skip the referendum or replace it with "door-to-door surveys" or whatever the fuck.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Seems that another major problem for Russian military is social media posting. This is on level with Jan 6 rioters putting up videos of themselves in the capitol.

Apparently a Russian propagandist posted pictures of himself visiting a Wagner Group base in Donbas. In one of the pictures you can see the sign on the building that included the address. That was enough to program coordinates for some HIMARS missiles, and now one less mercenary base.

Ukraine Wipes Out Mercenary HQ After Russian Posts Photo

Sergei Sreda, a Russian propagandist, posted photos online of his visit to a Wagner Group base in Donbas. One small problem though: he forgot to cover the street signs.

crooksandliars.com

Great news. I can understand Russian civilians getting drafted and forced to fight for Putler. But the Wagner group are just trained killers deliberately serving in conflicts in order to rape, kill, and get paid. Fuck them. They should all be worm food as far as I'm concerned.