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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Jayjay said:
barbos said:
lpetrich said:
The area that Russia has conquered so far is most of 18th-cy. Novorossiya, "New Russia", where lots of Russian colonists were invited in. The rest of Ukraine was formerly part of the Kievan Rus and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
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Kievan Rus is technically Russia. Ukrainian nazi have persistent linguistic butthurt about that.
So I agree, Russia should take back what was and IS Russia and leave nazi scam to Poland. In the end there will be no independent Ukraine left. There will be historical area called Ukraine which, in case you did not know, literally means "Outskirts" (of Russian Empire)
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When Russia occupied Poland, they also said that Polish is just a dialect of Russian, that Poland isn't a real country, and all the same things that Russian propaganda is now saying about Ukraine.

Different century, same old bulshit. If anything, it's Russia that's a fictional country that should be split to 5 or 10 different nations.
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Ukraine existed before Moscow or Russia. Ukraine is Russia's daddy.
 
Bronzeage said:
barbos said:
Bronzeage said:
The idea of a Ukrainian hit squad sent to Moscow to target Dugin is absurd.
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Why? they have been doing that lately and the last 8 years (in Donbas) really.
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If you say so.

If Russia's internal security police are on the same par as the Russian Army, it would be possible, but still not probable. Why would Ukraine waste resources on a low value target, so far away, when they have better targets within arms reach?

A more likely scenario is a group of anti-war Russians have come together to fight Putin and Dugan was the softest target close to Putin.
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Dugin was a soft target precisely because he's not "close to Putin". He maybe an ideologue that Putin has taken some of his cues from, but has no formal or informal role in the government.

I disagree with you that this was the work of Putin's enemies in Russia or anti-war Russians, because I don't think they exist. But that doesn't mean it was a hit ordered by Kyiv either... there is a whole spectrum of possibilities in between. I think Ukrainian saboteurs or nationalists working inside Russia, but maybe not officially connected to the Ukrainian secret service.
 
barbos said:
lpetrich said:
The area that Russia has conquered so far is most of 18th-cy. Novorossiya, "New Russia", where lots of Russian colonists were invited in. The rest of Ukraine was formerly part of the Kievan Rus and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Click to expand...
Kievan Rus is technically Russia. Ukrainian nazi have persistent linguistic butthurt about that.
So I agree, Russia should take back what was and IS Russia and leave nazi scam to Poland. In the end there will be no independent Ukraine left. There will be historical area called Ukraine which, in case you did not know, literally means "Outskirts" (of Russian Empire)
Click to expand...

Actually, that is a popular, but disputed, etymology for the  name of Ukraine. It was the earliest name used by Ukrainian Cossacks for the Zaporozhian Sich. The root of the word is the same in Russian, Ukrainian, and Polish: "kraj", meaning "region" or "territory". The prefix could have been ou (the way it was originally spelled as transliterated from East Slavic Ruthenian) meaning "in" or o meaning "about, around". The prefix ou is related to the Russian preposition v- "in", not u- "by". In fact, Vkrayina (Вкраїна) is an alternate spelling for Ukraine. So its more likely original meaning was just another word for "territory" or "land" to Ukrainians. However, because of the modern Slavic words for "outskirts" or "border" in Polish, Russian, and Ukrainian, it is now interpreted as a word meaning "borderland" or "march". The confusion seems to be a product of language changes rather than historical accuracy. That is, the spelling and pronunciation of Russian, Polish, and modern Ukrainian is at odds with the actual etymology. This issue may be connected to the official deprecation of the name "The Ukraine" in English. The Ukrainian government insists that the English translation should be just "Ukraine".
 
A Russian activist group has claimed responsibility for the attempt on Dugin's life. They call themselves the National Republican Army.

Here is a public statement from them, it reads like a manifesto:


1.manifesto1.jpeg
2.manifesto2.jpeg
3.manifesto3.jpeg
4.manifesto4.jpeg

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news.yahoo.com

Darya Dugina was killed by partisans from National Republican Army former Russian parliamentarian

UKRAINSKA PRAVDA - SUNDAY, 21 AUGUST 2022, 21:54 Ilya Ponomarev, a former member of the State Duma of the Russian Federation (the Russian parliament), said that the so-called National Republican Army (NRA) has claimed responsibility for the murder of Darya Dugina, the daughter of "Putin's...
news.yahoo.com news.yahoo.com
 
barbos said:
lpetrich said:
The area that Russia has conquered so far is most of 18th-cy. Novorossiya, "New Russia", where lots of Russian colonists were invited in. The rest of Ukraine was formerly part of the Kievan Rus and the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
Click to expand...
Kievan Rus is technically Russia. Ukrainian nazi have persistent linguistic butthurt about that.
So I agree, Russia should take back what was and IS Russia and leave nazi scam to Poland. In the end there will be no independent Ukraine left. There will be historical area called Ukraine which, in case you did not know, literally means "Outskirts" (of Russian Empire)
Click to expand...
By the way, I agree with you that Russia's goal is to take all of Ukraine and most likely the Baltics. All of the Putler whines about why Ukraine won't negotiate with us is just a farce. Russia has no intention of negotiating with the Ukraine or the west in good faith. The Russians won't war.
 
I think Ukraine's stance of public declarations of not negotiating is still a bad idea. It makes it harder to come to the table later. Right now, Ukraine could easily say it's ready to negotiate at any time, because Russia is going to decline the offer anyway.
 
Jayjay said:
I think Ukraine's stance of public declarations of not negotiating is still a bad idea. It makes it harder to come to the table later. Right now, Ukraine could easily say it's ready to negotiate at any time, because Russia is going to decline the offer anyway.
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A disingenuous offer wouldn’t benefit them in the long run IMO. It would encourage Russia, as it would be taken as a lack of resolve.
 
Jayjay said:
I think Ukraine's stance of public declarations of not negotiating is still a bad idea. It makes it harder to come to the table later. Right now, Ukraine could easily say it's ready to negotiate at any time, because Russia is going to decline the offer anyway.
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Negotiate what? It's not like both sides have valid claims and grievances. What should Ukraine's opening gambit be?
 
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According to the below, Putler is considering withdrawing from recently acquired Ukranian land; attacking a nato country to distract from Ukraine; or use tactical nukes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...cvid=d624d3a6d15342e5afb07e453e87ee0f#image=1

Putler would rather destroy the world if he can't get what he wants. If he is truly considering using a nuke, I think that the US must pull out all stops to stop him. The next step is to start putting real pressure on China and India. If Putler is going to try destroying the world, no trade with any country that trades with Russia. Zero. We have to find additional pressure points to stop the war.
 
I just can't believe he'd be that insane. Tactical nukes can't be walked back from. We don't even need to respond in kind. Just shot some missiles from a sub and cripple their oil distribution.
 
Harry Bosch said:
According to the below, Putler is considering withdrawing from recently acquired Ukranian land; attacking a nato country to distract from Ukraine; or use tactical nukes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...cvid=d624d3a6d15342e5afb07e453e87ee0f#image=1
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"General SVR" is not a credible source. It's a sensationalist telegram channel that alleges all sorts of things, for example that Putin has cancer and Parkinsons, and took part in a shamanist ritual with Sergei Shoigu just before the war.
 
Google NRA Wikipedia. Looks like there are a number of anti-Putin organizations popping up. My current favorite, Combat Organization Of Anarcho-Communists. I need the T-shirt.

"And remember, nobody is too small to set fire to something."
- Ancient Punch Magazine article on tips for being an anarchist
 
Jayjay said:
I think Ukraine's stance of public declarations of not negotiating is still a bad idea. It makes it harder to come to the table later. Right now, Ukraine could easily say it's ready to negotiate at any time, because Russia is going to decline the offer anyway.
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Except that this opens Ukraine up to more bad-faith attacks from Russia. Opening an offer to negotiate means accepting ceasefire conditions during negotiations and exposure of negotiators which Russia is going to game against: they will demand negotiations on their terms, on Russian soil, or with high value targets while exposing low value targets.

The biggest danger here is in Russia NOT declining, but rather using it as an opportunity to get a knife into someone's back.

It's already happened, in fact, a couple times.
 
Russian authorities revealed data on ukrainian terrorist who assassinated Dugina.
It's a woman and she had been known to be Azov regiment soldier prior to the event. How FSB let her in is beyond my understanding. But it is what it is. Plus, ukrainian scam used russian "opposition" idiots in Ukraine to publish crap on Dugin just hours before terrorist act.
 
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