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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

This is what I expected. Definitely worth the few minutes to take in. Putin doesn't know what the fuck to do.

Putin and Russian political system in state of shock

Yes, this interview with one of Putin's former political speechwriters is very interesting. He predicts that Putin can only last a few months more unless he can turn this around. About half of the Russian population seems to buy into the war, but that doesn't mean they are willing to fight, especially now that Russians have been badly beaten and driven out of such a large area. The truly enthusiastic ones already joined up for the quick war to replace the Ukrainian government with a Russia-friendly one. Those who stayed behind may be willing to tout the war in social media, but they aren't going to volunteer to be cannon fodder on the front lines.
 

Ivan Pechorin, 39, managing director of the Corporation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, reportedly fell off a boat at full speed and died Saturday near Russky Island in the Sea of Japan in Primorsky Krai, Russia, near Vladivostock, about 5,800 miles east of Moscow.
At least no windows were broken.

Here is Wikipedia's running count of  2022 Russian businessmen mystery deaths and a helpful table that can be updated as the year progresses. Pechorin is the most recent entry.

Anyway, Putin seems to be showing his billionaire oligarch buddies that any hint of disloyalty will lead to swift execution. No need for a trial or conviction. Those are some of the people he fears most. If a coup comes about, it will be from people in a position of power and influence. So he is playing the Stalin card for all it is worth--kill anyone who speaks criticism or just looks at you with a funny squint. The oligarchs don't know who they can trust, so it will be very difficult for a conspiracy against Putin to get started.
Which is precisely why there are no obvious successors. If you become a likely successor you are going to be killed. If you show disagreement and are in a position of influence you are going to be killed. Putang is going to leave in a box without an obvious successor.
 
Ukrainian Intelligence reports that the Russian occupiers are urgently evacuating their families from Crimea and southern Ukraine. Members of the FSB (Federal Security Service of Russia) are secretly trying to sell their residences in Crimea.

Source: the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine

Quote: "A successful counteroffensive by the Defence Forces of Ukraine is forcing the so-called authorities of temporarily occupied Crimea and the south of Ukraine to resettle their families urgently to the territory of the Russian Federation.

Despite assurances to the population of Crimea that it is safe to stay on the peninsula, representatives of the occupation administration of Crimea, FSB employees and commanders of some military units are secretly trying to sell their homes and urgently evacuate their families from the peninsula".
More details in the link.
 
Vladimir Putin's motorcade was attacked with explosives during a recent journey, unverified reports from Telegram have claimed. According to the General SVR Telegram channel, purportedly run by a Kremlin insider, one car blocked the front vehicle in Putin's motorcade, whilst another car drove around the motorcade and dropped an explosive on the vehicle carrying the Russian President. General SVR explained: "On the way to the residence, a few kilometers away, the first escort car was blocked by an ambulance, the second escort car drove around without stopping, a sudden obstacle, and while driving around the obstacle, the third car, in which Putin was, a loud bang sounded from the left front wheel followed by heavy smoke." The report claims that despite the explosion, the car carrying Putin managed to reach its destination. However, it adds that "the investigation into the incident and all information on it is classified".
 
Just realized that "Putin" was the name of the political officer onboard the Soviet submarine Red October. He was killed by the captain. In the words of the officers, "The man was a pig." Too good to be true. Prescient, maybe?
 
Vladimir Putin's motorcade was attacked with explosives during a recent journey, unverified reports from Telegram have claimed. According to the General SVR Telegram channel, purportedly run by a Kremlin insider, one car blocked the front vehicle in Putin's motorcade, whilst another car drove around the motorcade and dropped an explosive on the vehicle carrying the Russian President. General SVR explained: "On the way to the residence, a few kilometers away, the first escort car was blocked by an ambulance, the second escort car drove around without stopping, a sudden obstacle, and while driving around the obstacle, the third car, in which Putin was, a loud bang sounded from the left front wheel followed by heavy smoke." The report claims that despite the explosion, the car carrying Putin managed to reach its destination. However, it adds that "the investigation into the incident and all information on it is classified".
Link went 404 on me. It’s on eutimes.
 
If you're organizing banzai charges those men are good for that. If you're training men to do combat, operate tanks and artillery, fire and maneuver, they're not gonna cut it. They're mostly just targets.
 
Really? I love that movie. Watched it many times. I'll have to pay attention to that next time.
Its when they are still speaking in Russian at the start. The subtitles say, "the political officer" when the crewmember is clearly saying, "Zampolit Putin".
Also when the officers are meeting behind closed doors and ask Ramius what happened. That's the part where the one officer says, "The man was a pig" and uses the name "Putin."
 
Vladimir Putin's motorcade was attacked with explosives during a recent journey, unverified reports from Telegram have claimed. According to the General SVR Telegram channel, purportedly run by a Kremlin insider, one car blocked the front vehicle in Putin's motorcade, whilst another car drove around the motorcade and dropped an explosive on the vehicle carrying the Russian President. General SVR explained: "On the way to the residence, a few kilometers away, the first escort car was blocked by an ambulance, the second escort car drove around without stopping, a sudden obstacle, and while driving around the obstacle, the third car, in which Putin was, a loud bang sounded from the left front wheel followed by heavy smoke." The report claims that despite the explosion, the car carrying Putin managed to reach its destination. However, it adds that "the investigation into the incident and all information on it is classified".
Link went 404 on me. It’s on eutimes.
Where is Gavrilo Princip when you need him?
 
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I found some interesting analysis:

Sayonara on Twitter: "Evo jedne kratke, a dobre analize stanja u Rusiji, uz dve pouke:
1. Diktatura kad, tad vodi zemlju u poraz.
2. Bez saveznika se ne počinje rat, ma koliko zemlja bila vojno moćna, što je za Rusiju upitno.
Krenuti u rat bez saveznika je kao i krenuti bez qrca u svatove." / Twitter

Google Translate, from Croatian:
Here is a short but good analysis of the situation in Russia, with two lessons:
1. Dictatorship when, then leads the country to defeat.
2. No war can be started without allies, no matter how militarily powerful the country is, which is questionable for Russia.
Going to war without an ally is like going to a wedding party without a friend.
Unless it's a war against a much weaker country. Such wars often succeed -- the US vs. Latin America a century ago, the US vs. Grenada in 1983, the US vs. Panama in 1989, and Russia vs. Georgia in 2008. But I agree that it's hard to be successful otherwise. Over the last century, the US's most successful wars have been ones where it has had plenty of allies - WWI, WWII, the Korean War, the Gulf War. The US had much less support in its less-than-successful wars, like Vietnam and Iraq and Afghanistan.

So did Vladimir Putin and his friends think that Ukraine was almost as big a pushover as Georgia was?

Advokat Čedomir Stojković 🇷🇸🇺🇦 🐝🦋⚘️🌺🌻🌼💮 on Twitter: "Vremena su sada posebno opasna. ..." / Twitter
Vremena su sada posebno opasna. Gubitnik Putin upravo bira između straha od posledica nezaustavljivog vojnog (time i svakog drugog) poraza, trenutnog nivoa, sa jedne strane, i stravičnog podizanja uloga u kome će mu poraz biti još veći, ali posledice za sve velike i strašne.

Trenutne rasprave u Rusiji na režimskim TV svedoče o toj njegovoj dilemi, da se odluka želi još meriti. U suprotnom, tu nikakve rasprave sada ne bi ni bilo. Na žalost, vodeći državni autoriteti se zalažu za eskalaciju.

To je uvek posledica diktature - utrkivanje potčinjenih da što pre promovišu pretpostavljeno mišljenje vladara. Zato je svaka diktatura gubitnička, jer umesto da daju logiku, savetnici daju lažna mišljenja zasnovana na njihovim ambicijama da ih diktator unapredi ili zadrži.
Google Translate from Croatian:
Times are especially dangerous now. The loser Putin is choosing between the fear of the consequences of an unstoppable military (and therefore any other) defeat, the current level, on the one hand, and a terrible raising of the stakes in which his defeat will be even greater, but the consequences for everyone are great and terrible.

The current debates in Russia on regime TV testify to his dilemma, that the decision still wants to be measured. Otherwise, there would be no discussion at all. Unfortunately, leading state authorities are pushing for escalation.

This is always a consequence of dictatorship - the race of subordinates to promote the assumed opinion of the ruler as soon as possible. That is why every dictatorship is a loser, because instead of giving logic, advisers give false opinions based on their ambitions for the dictator to improve or retain them.
I've seen tweets about this war in other languages, like German and Turkish and Spanish and, of course, Russian and Ukrainian. Google Translate is most helpful.
 
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Vladimir Putin's motorcade was attacked with explosives during a recent journey, unverified reports from Telegram have claimed. According to the General SVR Telegram channel, purportedly run by a Kremlin insider, one car blocked the front vehicle in Putin's motorcade, whilst another car drove around the motorcade and dropped an explosive on the vehicle carrying the Russian President. General SVR explained: "On the way to the residence, a few kilometers away, the first escort car was blocked by an ambulance, the second escort car drove around without stopping, a sudden obstacle, and while driving around the obstacle, the third car, in which Putin was, a loud bang sounded from the left front wheel followed by heavy smoke." The report claims that despite the explosion, the car carrying Putin managed to reach its destination. However, it adds that "the investigation into the incident and all information on it is classified".
Link went 404 on me. It’s on eutimes.

These reports are half a day old and reported only on tabloid news sources, according to my google search. Even MSNBC only supplies a link to the Express story. So I would treat it as fake news unless a more reputable source confirms it.

ETA: The most recent link I could find was:

23:52 (September 14) – Rumors continue to surface regarding Putin’s health, as they do attempts on his life.


It is not known when the attempt, which was reported on Wednesday, September 14 took place.

According to the account, the left front wheel of Putin’s car was hit by a loud bang. Smoke quickly followed but the car was driven to safety.

Putin was unharmed in the incident, however, it is understood that a number of arrests have been made by the security services. Amongst those that have “disappeared” are a number of his bodyguards amid claims the president’s movements were compromised.

The insider claims that Putin was traveling in a decoy motorcade with growing fears for his safety. He is said to have been traveling in the third of the five vehicles.

According to the news channel they have been unable to verify the claim or to confirm where and when it took place.

Repeating what they had been told they said: “On the way to the residence, a few kilometers away, the first escort car was blocked by an ambulance, [and] the second escort car drove around without stopping [due to the] sudden obstacle, and during the detour of the obstacle.”

In Putins car a loud bang sounded from the left front wheel followed by heavy smoke.”

The news channel added: Subsequently, the body of a man was found driving [the] ambulance, which blocked the first car from the motorcade.

The head of the president’s bodyguard [service] and several other people have been suspended and are in custody, the channel claimed, without naming anyone.

A narrow circle of people knew about the movement of the president in this cortege, and all of them were from the presidential security service.

After the incident, three of them disappeared. These were exactly the people who were in the first car of the motorcade.

Their fate is currently unknown. The car on which they were traveling was found empty a few kilometers from the incident.
 
Though Ukraine's push into Kherson Oblast is widely speculated to be a feint, it is a serious effort, and it has been slow going because of the Russians stationed there. But Ukraine has had some successes there, getting very close to Kherson itself.

Ukrainian Armed Forces liberate Kyselivka, only Chornobaivka separates them from Kherson Kherson Oblast Council to the northwest of Kherson. Ukraine had recently taken back Oleksandrivka 38 km / 24 mi to the west, and Kyselivka is 19 km / 12 mi away. Chornobaivka is 6 km / 4 mi northwest, on Kherson's city limits.

Russia withdraws from key town near Kherson, ISW report says - Institute for the Study of War
Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15 kilometers northwest of Kherson, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River.

"Rector" of Kherson State University who collaborated with Russian occupiers blown up in Kherson
An explosive device detonated in the apartment of Tetiana Tomilina, the "rector" of Kherson State University (which has been captured by Russian forces) who collaborated with the Russian occupation regime.

Source: MOST, a Kherson-based news outlet, citing sources in law enforcement

Details: MOST’s sources report that Tomilina is severely injured. Her bodyguard was killed.

As to the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, Russia had plans for similar breakaway states near Kharkiv and Kherson, but had to cancel planned referendums for both regions.
 
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Xi and Putin meeting in China. But why does the centerpiece look like a fucking coffin? “It’s our friendship, Vlad. It’s dead.“

i just wonder whether he’ll tell him get the fuck out or to double down and start giving him aid. Xi might calculate that he could gain significant concessions from Putin if he starts to materially support him. If Putin is thrown out, then he will lose a valuable ally. I suspect he’ll give him lots of aid. Not sure if it will work.
 
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