How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

A good summary.

The curtain protecting the dignity of Russia's military has been pulled back | CNN

The tsar suddenly might have no clothes. It has been a startling week on both sides of the Ukraine and Russia border.

www.cnn.com

Pretty good read on the situation. It leaves me questioning why there is so much caution remaining wrt Putin's next move. He really doesn't have much of a next move and Ukraine needs to exploit that present weakness to its maximum. What seems to be directing western thought at this point is a fear of Putin's military when it's been shown there isn't one to fear anymore. We haven't crossed that bridge yet. One thing has certainly been demonstrated, namely that NATO does not need to fear Russian aggression anymore.

That was a very good article. It's so odd to me that the Russians won't seriously negotiate (they still claim that they will only accept total annihilation of Ukraine). I totally get why Ukraine doesn't want negotiations. They want their land back, and they are winning. But if Putler just offered to negotiate in good faith, I think that Europe (who is desperate to get Russian gas) would pressure Ukraine to negotiate. But instead, Putler just seems to want this to go on and on. There will be some setbacks for Ukraine. But why is Russia continually shooting itself in the foot?

It looks like Putin is hoping that winter will break Ukraine and its allies' resolve. The recent strikes against Ukrainian power plants seems to indicate that. Also mobilization and annexation are still on the table. Both would help Russia a little bit with its manpower deficit.

If Russia would be content with just having Crimea, and maybe even the February borders of the breakaway republics, it could possibly get them via negotiations: Land for peace. But I think it would be politically embarrassing for Putin to give up without much of anything to show for the "special military operation" and its stated goals. So he's going to continue until the bitter end, or wait for a more opportune moment. Ukraine is already saying that Russia has made some overtures at restarting negotiations.

 

[steve_bank]

From reporting Russia spread its forces too thin allowing Ukraine to break through and encircle the Russians. One question was whether or not Ukraine has the reserves to sustain the advance or if they will overextend. Can they rotate troops for rest.

The land corridor to Crimea is under threat.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

From reporting Russia spread its forces too thin allowing Ukraine to break through and encircle the Russians. One question was whether or not Ukraine has the reserves to sustain the advance or if they will overextend. Can they rotate troops for rest.

The land corridor to Crimea is under threat.

Working in Ukraine's favor, the locals don't hate them. They have to expel a lot less energy in holding the land. The question is, what is Russia's next move. The world was mostly wrong in the beginning. The US called the redeployment to the East when the Kviv takeover failed spectacularly.

What is next? What are Putin's goals at this point?

 

[Jayjay]

There are some disturbing news that Ukraine hit a school in Perevalsk, Luhansk, with HIMARS, which allegedly housed orphan children or something. From video it looks obvious that A) it was HIMARS, based on damage and pieces of rockets, and B) there were children there. And no obvious military vehicles or corpses, but of course, Russians wouldn't show them if there were.

Even if this was some sort of Russian false flag or an operation that lured Ukraine to fire at civilians by feeding false intel, Ukraine has some explaining to do.

 

[Jayjay]

And now that I started bitching about Ukraine, Zelensky apparently visited Izyum recently. He's also made other visits to the frontlines in the past. Isn't this a bit reckless? I can understand one time. But after the first time, isn't Russian intelligence going to be all over his ass just waiting until he makes another trip, and then order missile strikes in wherever that is? Eventually Zelensky's luck is going to run out.

 

[Harry Bosch]

A good summary.

The curtain protecting the dignity of Russia's military has been pulled back | CNN

The tsar suddenly might have no clothes. It has been a startling week on both sides of the Ukraine and Russia border.

www.cnn.com

Pretty good read on the situation. It leaves me questioning why there is so much caution remaining wrt Putin's next move. He really doesn't have much of a next move and Ukraine needs to exploit that present weakness to its maximum. What seems to be directing western thought at this point is a fear of Putin's military when it's been shown there isn't one to fear anymore. We haven't crossed that bridge yet. One thing has certainly been demonstrated, namely that NATO does not need to fear Russian aggression anymore.

That was a very good article. It's so odd to me that the Russians won't seriously negotiate (they still claim that they will only accept total annihilation of Ukraine). I totally get why Ukraine doesn't want negotiations. They want their land back, and they are winning. But if Putler just offered to negotiate in good faith, I think that Europe (who is desperate to get Russian gas) would pressure Ukraine to negotiate. But instead, Putler just seems to want this to go on and on. There will be some setbacks for Ukraine. But why is Russia continually shooting itself in the foot?

It looks like Putin is hoping that winter will break Ukraine and its allies' resolve. The recent strikes against Ukrainian power plants seems to indicate that. Also mobilization and annexation are still on the table. Both would help Russia a little bit with its manpower deficit.

If Russia would be content with just having Crimea, and maybe even the February borders of the breakaway republics, it could possibly get them via negotiations: Land for peace. But I think it would be politically embarrassing for Putin to give up without much of anything to show for the "special military operation" and its stated goals. So he's going to continue until the bitter end, or wait for a more opportune moment. Ukraine is already saying that Russia has made some overtures at restarting negotiations.

Agree with you. Russia is always trying to use leverage and be the asshole. They have such little soft power. BTW: I don't think that it will be necessarily good news if Putler is toppled. Next leader may be worse.

 

[Harry Bosch]

And now that I started bitching about Ukraine, Zelensky apparently visited Izyum recently. He's also made other visits to the frontlines in the past. Isn't this a bit reckless? I can understand one time. But after the first time, isn't Russian intelligence going to be all over his ass just waiting until he makes another trip, and then order missile strikes in wherever that is? Eventually Zelensky's luck is going to run out.

Russian intelligence is perhaps the most overrated group in history! They have been wrong on everything!

 

[Jayjay]

And now that I started bitching about Ukraine, Zelensky apparently visited Izyum recently. He's also made other visits to the frontlines in the past. Isn't this a bit reckless? I can understand one time. But after the first time, isn't Russian intelligence going to be all over his ass just waiting until he makes another trip, and then order missile strikes in wherever that is? Eventually Zelensky's luck is going to run out.

Russian intelligence is perhaps the most overrated group in history! They have been wrong on everything!

True. And it is good PR to show that the president isn't hiding in a bunker, so it might be worth the risk... but I wouldn't do it if I was him, because I'm a sniveling coward.

 

[Harry Bosch]

And now that I started bitching about Ukraine, Zelensky apparently visited Izyum recently. He's also made other visits to the frontlines in the past. Isn't this a bit reckless? I can understand one time. But after the first time, isn't Russian intelligence going to be all over his ass just waiting until he makes another trip, and then order missile strikes in wherever that is? Eventually Zelensky's luck is going to run out.

Russian intelligence is perhaps the most overrated group in history! They have been wrong on everything!

True. And it is good PR to show that the president isn't hiding in a bunker, so it might be worth the risk... but I wouldn't do it if I was him, because I'm a sniveling coward.

Totally agree! However, I'm sure that this offensive is exhausting his troops. And much of the future is dependent upon Ukranians keeping it up before Russia can regroup (and they will at some point as you have noted). So, I think that he's just doing everything that he can to keep his troops motivated.

 

[steve_bank]

From reporting Russia spread its forces too thin allowing Ukraine to break through and encircle the Russians. One question was whether or not Ukraine has the reserves to sustain the advance or if they will overextend. Can they rotate troops for rest.

The land corridor to Crimea is under threat.

Working in Ukraine's favor, the locals don't hate them. They have to expel a lot less energy in holding the land. The question is, what is Russia's next move. The world was mostly wrong in the beginning. The US called the redeployment to the East when the Kviv takeover failed spectacularly.

What is next? What are Putin's goals at this point?

Good point. More like liberating a French city in WWII.

A Ukrainian in the news said it is all about psychology. Russian soldiers are afraid, they are running across the Russian border.

From the news prisoners are now being pressed into Russian military service.

U don't think Putin has a next move. Like Hitler he will keep going until the very end. Hitler chose suicide rather than humiliation of capture.

Can Putin be legally removed? Don't know. He could have a complete mental breakdown.

 

[Copernicus]

A good summary.

The curtain protecting the dignity of Russia's military has been pulled back | CNN

The tsar suddenly might have no clothes. It has been a startling week on both sides of the Ukraine and Russia border.

www.cnn.com

What struck me most about this latest turn in the war is that the Russian retreat was a complete route. Russian forces ran and left equipment behind in their panicked scramble to get away. The Ukrainian defense forces blitzkrieged them. The attempt to occupy all of the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces is over for the foreseeable future simply because Russia no longer has the forces or enthusiasm to retake the lost territory. And Ukraine has a smaller war front to contend with. If they can manage to push into the land bridge to Crimea, a well-placed missile strike on Russia's new land bridge to the peninsula would isolate it. Over the past month or so, Russians who own properties there have been quietly selling and leaving. I suspect that the Crimean real estate market is tanking right about now.

See:

Ukrainian military says it sees signs of Russian movement into Crimea​

 

[steve_bank]

When Putin annexed Crimea he encouraged the wealthy to put money into it.

 

[Elixir]

I suspect that the Crimean real estate market is tanking right about now.

Maybe some deals to be had?

 

[Copernicus]

I suspect that the Crimean real estate market is tanking right about now.

Maybe some deals to be had?

I certainly wouldn't mind going back to Yalta. I visited it there in 1965, 11 years after it had been transferred to the Ukrainian SSR by Khrushchev. One of the highlights of my Russian language study tour from Ohio State, but I didn't really get a good dose of a Ukrainian accent until we visited Odesa afterwards. I learned why the Russians use the word "Hohol" as a pejorative for a Ukrainian. (Gogol, one of the greatest writers in the Russian language, was actually native Ukrainian, and /g/ in Russian generally corresponds to /h/ in Ukrainian.)

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

When the Nazis invaded Russia in WW2 Stalin was nowhere to be found or heard. Molotov actually responded to the invasion and eventually Stalin came around. Putang hasn't responded to the latest setbacks in any public way and probably won't.

As for Putang's next move I think we know it is going to be more and more shelling and destruction of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine. Hopefully Ukraine can silence those positions even if they are across the border. Ukraine intends to do precisely this judging from reports so it will continue to be interesting.

 

[pood]

I suspect that the Crimean real estate market is tanking right about now.

Maybe some deals to be had?

I certainly wouldn't mind going back to Yalta. I visited it there in 1965, 11 years after it had been transferred to the Ukrainian SSR by Khrushchev. One of the highlights of my Russian language study tour from Ohio State, but I didn't really get a good dose of a Ukrainian accent until we visited Odesa afterwards. I learned why the Russians use the word "Hohol" as a pejorative for a Ukrainian. (Gogol, one of the greatest writers in the Russian language, was actually native Ukrainian, and /g/ in Russian generally corresponds to /h/ in Ukrainian.)

Are you saying the Russians calling the Ukraines “Hohols” refers to Gogol? Because if so that sounds like a compliment, not an insult.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

This is what I expected. Definitely worth the few minutes to take in. Putin doesn't know what the fuck to do.

Putin and Russian political system in state of shock

 

[Copernicus]

Are you saying the Russians calling the Ukraines “Hohols” refers to Gogol? Because if so that sounds like a compliment, not an insult.

I honestly don't know, but I first noticed the pejorative while reading one of Maxim Gorky's stories during my high school days. Apparently, it goes back to pre-revolutionary times and is intended to mock the characteristic accent in Ukrainians and southern Russian speakers whereby standard Russian /g/ gets replaced by /h/. I don't think that Russians use it as a way of disrespecting Gogol so much as a means of treating a Ukrainian accent as sloppy or uneducated. Gogol himself never published in his native Ukrainian language, not that he would have made much money doing that. But Ukrainian was generally suppressed in eastern Ukraine during the rule of the tsars. It only became officially recognized under the Soviet regime.

 

[Copernicus]

MSN

Ivan Pechorin, 39, managing director of the Corporation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, reportedly fell off a boat at full speed and died Saturday near Russky Island in the Sea of Japan in Primorsky Krai, Russia, near Vladivostock, about 5,800 miles east of Moscow.

At least no windows were broken.

Here is Wikipedia's running count of  2022 Russian businessmen mystery deaths and a helpful table that can be updated as the year progresses. Pechorin is the most recent entry.

Anyway, Putin seems to be showing his billionaire oligarch buddies that any hint of disloyalty will lead to swift execution. No need for a trial or conviction. Those are some of the people he fears most. If a coup comes about, it will be from people in a position of power and influence. So he is playing the Stalin card for all it is worth--kill anyone who speaks criticism or just looks at you with a funny squint. The oligarchs don't know who they can trust, so it will be very difficult for a conspiracy against Putin to get started.

 

[steve_bank]

Was there any connections between relative to Putin that would indicate a conspiracy?

Mayve an officer severely wounded officer wounded in Ukrainian will leave a bomb in a briefcase in a Putin conference room.

Sooner or later the officers in the military are going to think they may not live a long life and will die for nothng.