How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jimmy Higgins]

It would seem of significance that Putin went to Xi. That ain't good for Russia in general... or Putin.

Was this China's play all along. Sit back and watch. Russia wins, no change. Russia loses, China wins as Russia has burned too many bridges.

Which then does make one ask, at what point do the sanctions stop, or loosen? How much retreat?

 

[TV and credit cards]

I'm sure for Xi, it's all business. Russia will be treated as it deserves based on its economic and military clout on the world stage and to what extent it can use that clout against the decadent west. In these regards, Russia is looking like it has little more to offer than any of the Central Asian nations. It is devolving to the point of having natural resources to sell and little else.
As surprised as we all were at the poor performance of the Russian military, I'm sure Xi is equally disappointed.
Xi not only backed the wrong horse, the horse has come up lame.

But hey, buy a t-shirt: Saint Javelin

A Chinese readout of the meeting also did not mention Ukraine. It said China is willing to give strong support to Russia for matters related to its core interests, state broadcaster CCTV reported.

Core interests being energy. Yeah. China will support.

 

[Copernicus]

This Reuters story suggests that cracks are developing in the relationship between China and Russia:

Putin says Xi has questions and concerns over Ukraine​

Of course, Xi is looking to Russia for support in its aggressive posture on Taiwan, so he is unlikely to distance himself too far from Putin unless the Ukraine war really goes south. Russia can't afford to lose more of the occupied territories.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I think further loss of occupied territories is inevitable. The wild card is western support. For its part Ukraine has performed brilliantly. They are capable of pushing all the way to the Ruski border, rolling back years of Ruski occupation. They’ve proven this. Will we allow them? It’s really up to us in the west.

 

[steve_bank]

I take the Chinese to be pragmatic. They have a regional agenda. Anything they do fits the agenda. They are doing the same as Russia.

China tried to invade Vitamin after we pulled out and got their butts kicked as I remember.

Sino-Vietnamese War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I would think Ukraine and the western response would give pause to China regarding Taiwan. China can not continue its economic success with wsetern trade.

 

[steve_bank]

I take the Chinese to be pragmatic. They have a regional agenda. Anything they do fits the agenda. They are doing the same as Russia.

China tried to invade Vitamin after we pulled out and got their butts kicked as I remember.

Sino-Vietnamese War - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I would think Ukraine and the western response would give pause to China regarding Taiwan. China can not continue its economic success with wsetern trade.

Adding China is very aware of gloabl perceptions and manges its image accordingly. In the 80s there wre teraveling Chinese shows like the Chinese Acrobats.

When challenged on human rights hety cclaim they are the global portector of rights.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Without at least a partial mobilization of reserve military (recent veterans), Russia has little to put forward to, at a minimum, defend the current front lines. I've read they pulled 1500 troops from their base in Tajikistan to send to Ukraine.

Ukraine, now having time on their side will secure gains, regroup, resupply and execute another counter offense at the time and place of their choosing. With the Russian armed forces as dejected as they are, I see no reason why there will not be another sizable chunk of Ukrainian soil liberated soon.

My concern is as Ukraine secures more of their land from Russia, will cross border engagements ensue? We can't very well expect UAF not to respond to attacks from within Russia. I think UAF has secured all of Kharkiv Oblast to the Russian border now.

 

[Gun Nut]

I support Ukraine marching all the way to Moscow and liberating the entire region.
I also support nuking the Kremlin, as I am adequately positive that Russia's nuclear capabilities have been non-existent for quite some time... enough that I would "bet the world" on it.

 

[bilby]

Though Ukraine's push into Kherson Oblast is widely speculated to be a feint, it is a serious effort, and it has been slow going because of the Russians stationed there. But Ukraine has had some successes there, getting very close to Kherson itself.

Ukrainian Armed Forces liberate Kyselivka, only Chornobaivka separates them from Kherson Kherson Oblast Council to the northwest of Kherson. Ukraine had recently taken back Oleksandrivka 38 km / 24 mi to the west, and Kyselivka is 19 km / 12 mi away. Chornobaivka is 6 km / 4 mi northwest, on Kherson's city limits.

Russia withdraws from key town near Kherson, ISW report says - Institute for the Study of War

Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15 kilometers northwest of Kherson, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River.

"Rector" of Kherson State University who collaborated with Russian occupiers blown up in Kherson

An explosive device detonated in the apartment of Tetiana Tomilina, the "rector" of Kherson State University (which has been captured by Russian forces) who collaborated with the Russian occupation regime.

Source: MOST, a Kherson-based news outlet, citing sources in law enforcement

Details: MOST’s sources report that Tomilina is severely injured. Her bodyguard was killed.

As to the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, Russia had plans for similar breakaway states near Kharkiv and Kherson, but had to cancel planned referendums for both regions.

A feint needn't remain a feint, if it discovers unanticipated opportunities.

 

[steve_bank]

I support Ukraine marching all the way to Moscow and liberating the entire region.
I also support nuking the Kremlin, as I am adequately positive that Russia's nuclear capabilities have been non-existent for quite some time... enough that I would "bet the world" on it.

Son of Doctor Stangelove?

I love the last scene in the movie where Sim Pickens rides a nuke down,.

 

[lpetrich]

Special Kherson Cat on Twitter: "Russians are transporting some strange metal structures from Crimea towards Kherson (pic link)" / Twitter
Looks like a truss, a common sort of structural element. In the picture, the top beam and the bottom beam have vertical beams connecting them and making squares, and a diagonal beam in each square.

Lady McBeth #FBPE on Twitter: "@bayraktar_1love This is an offsite prefabricated truss section. They are going to try to span the bridge between the intact abutments. You can see the coupling positions where it will be pinned together with other sections" / Twitter
then
Lady McBeth #FBPE on Twitter: "@bayraktar_1love I’m structural engineer. This is what I do for work every day. (pic link)" / Twitter


War in Ukraine — France will hand over 36 prefabricated bridges to Ukraine

"Kuleba recalled that the Matiere company has many years of experience in the rapid deployment of bridges for road and rail transport, especially in countries where war has destroyed infrastructure."

 

[steve_bank]

Maybe it is an earthquake machine.

I dn;t see how a bridge would not end up being destroyed.

 

[lpetrich]

Contradictory reports about Kyselivka, a little NW of Kherson.
ТРУХА️English on Twitter: "The operationally important village of Kyselivka in the Kherson region is still in the "gray zone" Battles continue for it, - the head of Mykolaiv OVA Vitalii Kim (pic link)" / Twitter

TheLvivJournal on Twitter: "Abandoned military vehicles. I insist i see a pattern here... Parked on the side of the road. Not damaged not bobby trapped. This is not "leaving in a hurry" situation. Orcs are taking revenge against their commanders by leaving vehicles & weapons
#lviv #kherson #crimea (vid link)" / Twitter

"Orcs" is a common nickname for Russian soldiers.

[Defense of Ukraine on Twitter: "Mass graves are being discovered in Izyum after liberation from the russcists. The current largest burial sights has 440 unmarked graves.
@ZelenskyyUa : "The necessary procedural actions have already begun there. More information - clear, verified - should be available tomorrow." (pix link)" / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

Fun fact: Izyum's name means "raisin" in Russian.


NEXTA on Twitter: "️Photos of mass graves from the liberated #Izium were published
Some of the graves have crosses, with inscriptions on them: "AFU, 17 people, from the morgue", "345", "412". Commissioner for Missing Persons Oleg Kotenko confirmed the authenticity of this photos.
Current Time (pix link)" / Twitter

Some of the crosses are Russian Orthodox crosses, with a short tilted crossbeam below the main one, presumably for Jesus Christ's feet.


Serhiy Hayday on Twitter: "russians are withdrawing troops to #Svatove and #Troitske – they are digging in and preparing to defend themselves.Heavy fighting continues on many fronts, including in the #Luhansk region.The #Kharkiv rapid scenario will not be repeated. We will have to fight hard for our Oblast (pic link)" / Twitter
Showing "Luhanska Oblast" and "Svativsky Raion".

Svatove is about 50 km / 30 mi SE of Kupyansk and Troitske a bit over 50 km / 30 mi NE.

So the Russians are digging in there.

The Ukrainians may try to surround Svatove, but there's a lot of farmland around that time. Alternately, they may try to split the road between Svatove and Troitske, like at Nyzhnia Duvanka or at Pokrovske, towns that have roads to the west.

 

[lpetrich]

Ucrania afirmó que las fuerzas rusas se retiraron de Kreminna, en Lugansk - Infobae - Sep 13
Google Translate:

Ukraine claimed that Russian forces withdrew from Kreminna in Lugansk

Regional authorities reported that regular Ukrainian troops have not yet entered the city and that the town of Starobilsk, some 70 kilometers to the east, is also completely empty.

It has a section on "Evacuation of Crimea":

Representatives of the Russian authorities managing occupied Crimea "are urgently evacuating their families" from the region and southern Ukraine, according to a report released Tuesday by Ukrainian intelligence.

"The successful actions of the Ukrainian defenders force the 'so-called authorities' of temporarily occupied Crimea and the south of our country to urgently relocate their families to the territory of the Russian Federation," reads the Intelligence directorate report. from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, according to Ukrinform.

Running scared, I'm sure.

But that raises an interesting issue. After the fall of Kherson and nearby territory to its northeast, where next? I'm sure that the Ukrainian armed forces will cross the Dneiper River. They may either go eastward to Melitopol and Mariupol and Donetsk, or else go southward to Crimea. A difficulty with that peninsula is that its connections with the mainland are six very narrow ones, ones that are easy to defend. The broadest one is at Perekop, and that one is about 9 km / 5 1/2 mi wide at its narrowest point. That is the westernmost one, and the next three ones to the east are both roads on embankments that split the water, then two bridges further to the east, each about 100 m / 300 ft long.

An alternative is to land a lot of troops on some Crimea beach, much like the D-Day assault in World War II and many similar ones. But I doubt that Ukraine has much practice in troop landings. Ukraine would also need a fleet of landing boats, like the US LCVP's of WWII, and I doubt that Ukraine has a lot of those.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia rattled following report Putin's motorcade attacked

An ambulance blocked the leading car in Putin's motorcade while another car dropped an explosive on the vehicle carrying Putin, according to a report on Telegram.

www.express.co.uk

Vladimir Putin's motorcade was attacked with explosives during a recent journey, unverified reports from Telegram have claimed. According to the General SVR Telegram channel, purportedly run by a Kremlin insider, one car blocked the front vehicle in Putin's motorcade, whilst another car drove around the motorcade and dropped an explosive on the vehicle carrying the Russian President. General SVR explained: "On the way to the residence, a few kilometers away, the first escort car was blocked by an ambulance, the second escort car drove around without stopping, a sudden obstacle, and while driving around the obstacle, the third car, in which Putin was, a loud bang sounded from the left front wheel followed by heavy smoke." The report claims that despite the explosion, the car carrying Putin managed to reach its destination. However, it adds that "the investigation into the incident and all information on it is classified".

General SVR is not a reliable source. It's "predictions" include claims that Putin has both cancer and Parkinson's, and that he and Shoigu take part in shamanistic rituals to win the war. That description of events sounds like something I may have seen in a heist movie.

 

[Jayjay]

Though Ukraine's push into Kherson Oblast is widely speculated to be a feint, it is a serious effort, and it has been slow going because of the Russians stationed there. But Ukraine has had some successes there, getting very close to Kherson itself.

Ukrainian Armed Forces liberate Kyselivka, only Chornobaivka separates them from Kherson Kherson Oblast Council to the northwest of Kherson. Ukraine had recently taken back Oleksandrivka 38 km / 24 mi to the west, and Kyselivka is 19 km / 12 mi away. Chornobaivka is 6 km / 4 mi northwest, on Kherson's city limits.

Russia withdraws from key town near Kherson, ISW report says - Institute for the Study of War

Satellite imagery of known Russian positions in Kyselivka, 15 kilometers northwest of Kherson, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have departed from previous forward positions, consistent with rumors that the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” (DNR) troops have abandoned Kyselivka and moved back towards the Dnipro River.

I think Russia is trying to withdraw from Kherson, but they can't do it orderly for the same reason why they have trouble there in the first place: Ukraine has disabled the bridges and the only way to resupply is via ferries and helicopters. Tough to get all the troops and hardware out quickly.

 

[Jayjay]

Without at least a partial mobilization of reserve military (recent veterans), Russia has little to put forward to, at a minimum, defend the current front lines. I've read they pulled 1500 troops from their base in Tajikistan to send to Ukraine.

Ukraine, now having time on their side will secure gains, regroup, resupply and execute another counter offense at the time and place of their choosing. With the Russian armed forces as dejected as they are, I see no reason why there will not be another sizable chunk of Ukrainian soil liberated soon.

My concern is as Ukraine secures more of their land from Russia, will cross border engagements ensue? We can't very well expect UAF not to respond to attacks from within Russia. I think UAF has secured all of Kharkiv Oblast to the Russian border now.

Ukraine has already conducted ops in Belgorod and Kursk regions of Russia. Mostly with drones, but also manned attack helicopters.

 

[Jayjay]

I think further loss of occupied territories is inevitable. The wild card is western support. For its part Ukraine has performed brilliantly. They are capable of pushing all the way to the Ruski border, rolling back years of Ruski occupation. They’ve proven this. Will we allow them? It’s really up to us in the west.

I think Crimea is a tough nut to crack even with Western support. But we're still far from that. Ideal solution in my opinion would be a compromise that includes Russian withdrawal from rest of Ukraine (possibly also the previously occupied territories of DNR/LNR) in exchange for Russia getting to keep Crimea.

 

[barbos]

Boy, western propaganda is very strong.

Here is a bad news for you. Ukrainians took a territory which russians simply left.
And in doing so ukrainian took heavy losses. They punched the air and lost.

In other news Georgians refused to open second front. I guess they learned their lesson. They looked at Afghanistan debacle, looked at the map, looked at what is happening in Ukraine and decided, we would be better off having semi-normal relation with Russia, rather than being Victoria Nuland's puppets. They actually reported GDP growth Don't know how they managed it but they did.