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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Eastward ho!
And back to old territory. Not wanting to leave behind what's left of their equipment (Smart, smart. We're learning.), Russian forces are ferrying it east across the Dnipro. And then they'll blow the dam at the Kakhovka Hydro Power Plant. Telling, that they've nothing left to supply their southern forces. Are they spent or can they just not get equipment from point A to point B because the Kerch bridge went kablooey?
I think the bottleneck for Russia has been getting enough artillery shells to the other side of Dnipro to feed the guns they've got there. This was a major problem even before the Kerch bridge explosion.
 
Maybe Putin has learned from history. He studied WWII and found that the way to defeat Nazis is to engage in a war that kills off 80% of your adult male population.

Umm..... I was being sarcastic when I stated this, but is this PootiePoot's actual strategy now? :shock:
 
Maybe Putin has learned from history. He studied WWII and found that the way to defeat Nazis is to engage in a war that kills off 80% of your adult male population.

Umm..... I was being sarcastic when I stated this, but is this PootiePoot's actual strategy now? :shock:
I mean... Maybe he's trying to do his part to reduce the impact of AGW?

Reducing the population by that percentage has got to do something, right?

Never mind the ecological impacts of the war itself, of course.
 
Reducing the population by that percentage has got to do something, right?

You'd think... unless you take a look at global replacement figures hovering around 140m births/yr.
Fewer than 70m Russians are men, so even if Pootey manages to kill all of them but himself - or (preferably) including himself - it won't much effect the global population, just the Russian one. The price of Russian brides would probably drop precipitously. I might even be able to afford 2 or 3 of them. :)
 
According to 538, current polling data predicts republicans have 80% chance of taking the house and 45% chance of taking the senate. Just a short while ago, it was closer to 60% and 30%. The numbers seem to be rapidly moving in Republicans' favor.

So will the GOP stop funding Ukraine immediately in January, or will it take a while?
 
According to 538, current polling data predicts republicans have 80% chance of taking the house and 45% chance of taking the senate. Just a short while ago, it was closer to 60% and 30%. The numbers seem to be rapidly moving in Republicans' favor.

So will the GOP stop funding Ukraine immediately in January, or will it take a while?

Just before the 2016 election, 538 was giving Trump a 1 in 5 to 1 in 3 chance of winning the electoral college vote. Trump won the electoral college vote, despite the odds being against him. That said, the news looks bad for those who would prefer not to see Congress pursuing a relentless and thorough search for the truth regarding Hunter Biden's laptop and other allegations of nefarious behavior. Joe Biden's chances of being impeached may rise dramatically.
 
It is a good quetion.

Without American prodding how supportive will Europe be in the long run?

Germnay has been dragging its feet. Macron has been muted in criticizing Putin. Italy has elected a leader who admires Mussolini. The Brits are in a meltdown.

Here in Wa polls show the top three voter issues are abortion, inflation and crime. In other states immigration.

Ukraine has to finish it before the next presidential election. We know what Trump or a surrogate might do.

The left is spending a lot of money. Sooner or later the reins have to pulled in.
 
Anybody remember Baghdad Bob Hussein's media man who when saying Baghdad would never be entered on camera smoke began rising behhd him.

Or Vladimir Pozner, the Soviet political media shill? The Soviet Union is a widerful place.

Before the internet I I listened to state radio on shortwave. Russia, China, Brits, USA, France anda few oter communist stations.
I saw an analyses of that. In the Iraq war USA employed a new tactic dubbed "Thunder Run". Instead of spreading out over a front and seek weaknesses in the enemy line, Thunder Runs is about punching hard into one spot, and pushing deep into enemy territory, disrupting enemy supply and support networks behind the line. Its extremely risky and requires full support of everything you got.

It can cause chaos in the enemy front and forces them to do a tactical retreat to regroup. But the Iraquis never understood what USA was doing. They just thought the Americans were being stupid and reckless.

Iraq was employing essentially WW2 tactics, and had nothing to counter the Thunder Runs with.

The idea that the Iraqi defences would crumble like they did was just unbelievable to their high command.

Baghdad Bob was actually working with the best available information at the time.

How unbelievable that may sound
 
I think Schwarzkopf is up there with our past generals.

He planned it all. I think he replaced a tank commander on the fly for not being aggressive enough. There was a case when a bunker filled with Iraqis was bulldozed over with sand.

The first step in the Iraq was take out all ground surveillance and communication centers. When the Israelis made a preemptive attack in the last war the first thing they did was destroy surveillance radar and attack airfields as I recall.

Iraq had no chance. We had a coordinated ground, air, and naval gunfire combination. Attack helicopters designed to destroy tanks. The A10 Warthog. Heavily armored low and slow ground attack jets.

Our tanks could see and target other tanks in the dark. It was realty overwhelming power. The only risk was chemical and biological weapons.

It seems clear baring chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons had NATO attacked it would have been like the Iraq War. IMO.
 
I think Schwarzkopf is up there with our past generals.

He planned it all. I think he replaced a tank commander on the fly for not being aggressive enough. There was a case when a bunker filled with Iraqis was bulldozed over with sand.

The first step in the Iraq was take out all ground surveillance and communication centers. When the Israelis made a preemptive attack in the last war the first thing they did was destroy surveillance radar and attack airfields as I recall.

Iraq had no chance. We had a coordinated ground, air, and naval gunfire combination. Attack helicopters designed to destroy tanks. The A10 Warthog. Heavily armored low and slow ground attack jets.

Our tanks could see and target other tanks in the dark. It was realty overwhelming power. The only risk was chemical and biological weapons.

It seems clear baring chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons had NATO attacked it would have been like the Iraq War. IMO.
I still think NATO should deploy ground troops and go all in in the defence of Ukraine, as well as handing Crimea back to Ukraine.

Coming down hard and fast on anyone risking world peace is always the best long term guarantor for long term peace. IMHO
 
Ukraine live on Twitter: "[ Kupyansk Front ] Ukraine "quietly" penetrating into Luhansk towards Svatove in massive pincer #Ukraine #Russia #USA #Germany #canadavisa (pic link)" / Twitter
The picture shows Tabaivka and Pishchane, some 27 km away from Svatove.

NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 on Twitter: "Russian pro-war blogger Anastasia Kashevarova gives some juicy details about the situation in #Svatove. Apparently mobilized have retreated, there is infighting between the local military leadership and there is being lied to family members about the deceased. (pic link)" / Twitter

Michael MacKay on Twitter: "The Russian fascist invaders ..." / Twitter
The Russian fascist invaders shelled positions of Ukrainian defenders near the settlement of Karmazynivka in Luhansk region.

This indicates the Armed Forces of Ukraine have advanced to less than 5 km from Route 66 and less than a dozen kilometres from Svatove.

Ukrainian defenders repulsed rashist attacks on Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka in Luhansk region.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken control of Zolotarivka and are carefully advancing on the temporarily-occupied city of Lysychans'k.

On this battlefront the rashists bombarded Kolodyazne, Bohdanivs'ke, Dvorichna, Kup'yans'k, Kyslivka, Berestove, Shyykivka, Karmazynivka, Terny and Zarichne.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operational information at 06:00 on 22 October 2022

One Ukrainian village has a name that causes trouble for searchers.
Stevan Bolton on Twitter: "@jpmfhc @Tendar Searching for the term "Mylove" on Twitter brings up all kinds of garbage that no amount of filter clauses will make up for. I hope Ukraine captures it quickly so we can get back to more easily sargable names like "Svatove" and "Snihikurvka" etc. LOL :)" / Twitter

There is also a Ukrainian village called "New York". But most Ukrainian places, and also must Russian and Belarusian ones, have much more easily searchable names. One pitfall is that several places may have the same name, but Google Maps is careful to disambiguate them by region when I do a search.

John Yani on Twitter: "@StevanBolton @jpmfhc @Tendar Try Милове and Мыловое" / Twitter
In the Cyrillic alphabet.
 
Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 on Twitter: "MAXAR published satellite imagery of Russian Wagner defensive line in Donbas.
he length of the line is now ~1,6km out of ~200km planed (pix link)" / Twitter

The third picture shows a map of the planned line. To translate the big text in the picture, I typed in a Roman-alphabet transcription: "Gde prokhodit liniya Vagnera" - Google Translate gave me a Cyrillic version - "Где проходит линия Вагнера" and a translation "Where is the Wagner Line" though a more literal translation may be "Where does the Wagner Line go".

It goes Svitlodarsk - Kreminna - Luhansk (Ukrainian versions), though the picture used Russian versions: Svetlodarsk - Kremennaya - Lugansk. The K - L part of the line runs along a river, all the way to the border with Russia.

Seems like they are retreating.

Caleb Larson on Twitter: "“What’s the worst part of war?” an officer with Ukraine's 63rd Mechanized Brigade asked, choking back tears 2 kilometers from the Kherson front. “It’s when guys you know and have coffee with don’t come back.” The best days are when you “liberate territory and don’t lose anyone.” (pic link)" / Twitter

WarMonitor🇺🇦 on Twitter: "Russian Spetsnaz group in Kherson direction attempted reconnaissance mission in civilian clothes.
It did not end well for them." / Twitter


Visioner on Twitter: "Some positive news after a terrible day: 🇬🇪 Georgian fighters captured another Russian T-90A MBT in 🇺🇦 Kherson direction. (vid link)" / Twitter

olexander scherba🇺🇦 on Twitter: "Last night withdrawing #Russia was trying to steal equipment of Ukrainian TV company in #Kherson. The equipment had GPS on. So, the HIMARS strike by #Ukraine was especially effective.
#UkraineWillWin #RussianLooters" / Twitter


Oleksandra Matviichuk on Twitter: "The Economist devoted its obituary to Ukrainian conductor Yuriy Kerpatenko. Russians killed him for refusing to perform in occupied Kherson. Remember this story when somebody asks why Ukrainians are fighting to liberate occupied territories. We are fighting for people there. (pic link)" / Twitter
 
I think Schwarzkopf is up there with our past generals.

He planned it all. I think he replaced a tank commander on the fly for not being aggressive enough. There was a case when a bunker filled with Iraqis was bulldozed over with sand.

The first step in the Iraq was take out all ground surveillance and communication centers. When the Israelis made a preemptive attack in the last war the first thing they did was destroy surveillance radar and attack airfields as I recall.

Iraq had no chance. We had a coordinated ground, air, and naval gunfire combination. Attack helicopters designed to destroy tanks. The A10 Warthog. Heavily armored low and slow ground attack jets.

Our tanks could see and target other tanks in the dark. It was realty overwhelming power. The only risk was chemical and biological weapons.

It seems clear baring chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons had NATO attacked it would have been like the Iraq War. IMO.
I still think NATO should deploy ground troops and go all in in the defence of Ukraine, as well as handing Crimea back to Ukraine.

Coming down hard and fast on anyone risking world peace is always the best long term guarantor for long term peace. IMHO
Ukraine has said they do not want direct NATO involvement.

I am sure NATO has gamed ut all the options and the risks. Unintended future consequences. For example. We sided wu SA aginst Iran when SA was no better than Iran. Iran never participated in the wars against Israel, SA did.

Now Russia is using Iranian drones and operators.

I'm just a hack with some knowledge of war, geopolitics, and history. NATO has probably done simulations and war games.

The nest laid plans of men and mice applies both to Russia and NATO. In the first Iraq war GHWB decided to end the war and not go into Iraq. Toppling Husein would have unpredictable consequences. Hussein was toppled in the second war and the region is now an ustable mess.

Same question as to toppling Hussein, who would replace Putin? That's how intelligence people earn their pay. Risk analysis. There apaprently more agressive nationalists in the wings. I expect as variables are added the decision point for NATO becomes difficult.

Putin has been careful inflicting as much pain on Europe as he can, but not violating a NAT) border.
 
I listened to a Russian expat historian who knew Putin speak to that.

He saaid Putin sees himself in the line of Russian conquerors. He called Putin a Russian mystic.
 
Hungary is probably realizing Russia is a loosing proposition.
 


Putin, black magic, wizards and demons?! WTF!
Jesus though the adds on that page are fucking cancer...

I'm going to be clear yet again, not everything is as meets the eye in discussions about topics like wizards, black magic, and demons.

There is every possibility that they have sold their discrete and entire control, their consent among themselves as regards methods, or more to something kicking around in their meat fomented from empathy to some awful darkness.

What, exactly do you think is the consequences of saying into an unknown and vast neural network which gave rise to such as yourself, "I will give anything for this"?

Do you not think that other neural structures would fail to "hear" this offer, and would fail to leverage upon it?

Something dark may slither up from the place humans isolate our more adversarial tools within the psyche and do something not unlike "making an offer".

It's one of the things Hellraiser is about: learning how to open a "puzzle", making sacrifices along the way that you don't have to foot the bill for so you can get a boon offered up from within the darkness, a bit of help from a rather "friendly" seeming adversarial neural node.

And you get what you ask for but now... Well, now you see the thing you let out of the box, and it sees you: a connection is made.

Someone prone to thinking about the supernatural would see summoning up a demon from hell, and making a Faustian bargain for power.

When I discuss "compartments" these are exactly the sort of entities that I would engender one thinking about.

We each are denizens of the palace of the mind, and it is silliness to think we are the only things inside those walls.

That said, this is not a discussion of things "beyond" the physical, but things bound up in physicality, namely the meat of our own minds.

It is in fact being trite and foolish to say "but that's just a psychological problem", as trite as to say having your arm lopped off is "just a bit of missing flesh". Technically it's true, but it misses the reality.
 
Defense Politics Asia on Twitter: "[ Svatove-Kreminna Front + Analysis ] ..." / Twitter
[ Svatove-Kreminna Front + Analysis ] Ukraine secured a bridgehead at Makiivka; now pushing outwards

Breaking news from the Svatove-Kreminna Front: Ukraine finally captured a bridgehead at Makiivka after struggled to get past the Russian defense line along the Zherebets River.

This comes after the clearing up of the bad weathers that had plagued the battlefield for the past few days; disallowing both sides to deploy their UAVs to scout the enemy positions, causing artilleries to be basically firing blind.

Ukraine forces are now streaming towards the Makiivka area, while the initial forces are already pushing outwards in all directions. Fighting reported at Novovodyane, south of Makiivka and the mysterious location call "Krasnopopovka" (that does not exist on any maps).

NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 on Twitter: "🇷🇺 reporters speculate about the area north of Svatove after they heard that residents are being urged to move.
"It looks like the north of the LPR will be given away. The lights were turned off in Troits'ke area, not because of shelling but because they want people to move"." / Twitter


So they don't expect to hold onto northern Luhansk Oblast for much longer.
 
Visegrád 24 on Twitter: "Another Russian military plane crashes in an urban area.
A Su-30, which had just taken off from the aircraft factory, crashed into a residential building in Irkutsk.
Looks like the Russian Air Force is increasingly becoming a threat to its own civilians. (vid link)" / Twitter


Dr Charles Tannock on Twitter: "@visegrad24 Could this be sabotage?" / Twitter

PorvariKalliosta on Twitter: "@CharlesTannock @visegrad24 With corruption rates in Russia this case doesn't need sabotage. It is only needed that one person in supply chain delivers substandard part or mechanic doesn't deliver 1 hour of maintenance. Corruption corrodes everything." / Twitter


Alex, the BigBadNAFOBonker on Twitter: "@visegrad24 As I wrote after the accident few days ago: they are losing it on maintenance, spare parts and experienced crew, both in aircraft and on ground. Maybe even sabotage? Russian air farce falling apart? (no, not a typo...)" / Twitter

Greyskull on Twitter: "Plane crashes in Novolenino, South Central Russia. ..." / Twitter
Plane crashes in Novolenino, South Central Russia.

Cause and aircraft type unknown at this stage

Update: reportedly an SU30 crashed just after take off

According to prelim info, the plane crashed during a training flight of 2 fighters, during which 1 of them stopped communicating.

After 20 mins, the 2nd Su-30 took off after the 1st and saw that the crew was sitting in the cockpit with their heads hanging

probably the pilots suffocated, and when the fuel ran out - the plane fell on residential areas.
Novolenino is about 190 km NNW of Irkutsk
 
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