How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

The Ukrainians are gradually getting closer and closer to Svatove. I've found another source for their purported breakthrough to the SW of that town.

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Heavy battles near Svatove. The Russian forward posts in Kovalivka and Novovodyane are getting hammered. When they fall Russians will have hard time to stop the encirclement of Svatove. Overall, I say something big is developing there. Standby! #Svatove #Luhansk #Ukraine (pix link)" / Twitter

Julian Röpcke on Twitter: "#NewsMap
The Ukrainian army liberated another seven settlements in northern Donetsk, eastern Kharkiv and western Luhansk oblast, pushing the front line further east towards the strategic Russian-occupied city of Svatove. (pic link)" / Twitter

Elsewhere,
(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "Visual confirmation that that the concrete plant in Bakhmut was liberated. More than 2 months of fighting and dying for Putin’s Wagnerites, and lost in within 48h. #Bakhmut #Ukraine #Donetsk (vid link)" / Twitter

Albina Fella ✙ #NAFO on Twitter: "In occupied Melitopol, Ukraine a russian propaganda outlet was blown up.
#RussiaIsLosing #UkraineWillWin (pix link)" / Twitter

TheLvivJournal on Twitter: "Southern front
Battle.
Poland was the first country to send tanks to Ukraine, around 260 (or even more). I remember ruzZia warning Polish authorities of escalation. You don't bully Poland.
#lviv #kherson #donetsk (vid link)" / Twitter
Showing a tank in the distance with some footsoldiers following it.

Not much progress near Kherson either, but a lot of talk about Russians evacuating that city, like for Svatove and Kreminna and Troitske in the north.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

We tend to think of this war as confined to Ukraine, but it is really a war between Russia and Europe--a war whose violent side has not spread beyond the borders of Ukraine yet. And one could, of course, include the entire Western alliance, because Europe is a vital part of that. The main weapons used on the nonviolent fronts are primarily economic and diplomatic. The sabotage of the Russian pipeline in the Baltic was part of Russia's economic front, as it seeks to cut off the delivery of essential LNG supplies. The defensive reaction has been to ship LNG into Europe, which is not prepared for that form of delivery. Here is an article from the front lines of that economic war:

Dozens of LNG-laden ships queue off Europe's coasts unable to unload​

It's not so much about this war, than a longer term plan of Putin to make Europe reliant on Russian energy. Before the war, Germany got 55% of its natural gas from Russia. Sure, they could have diversified, but who's going to invest billions of euros to build LNG terminals, which might never recoup the investment?

The root cause of the problem is that in Europe and west in general, the energy industry is controller by private companies, whereas in Russia they're state controlled and are capable of longer term planning and also using energy as a political tool: friendly governments get discounts, unfriendly ones are threatened with cutting off the deliveries. Ironically, only way to shield from this is to more socialism. In retrospect, German government should have made a political decision that they will build those terminals for more expensive LNG and cap the Russian gas deliveries even if it doesn't make economic sense.

There are similar risky dependencies to China for solar panels, rare Earth minerals, and whatever other resources.

True, reliance on Russian resources complicates illegal western war on Russia.

If the west was at war with Russia... you would no longer have the capacity to transmit your energy resources anywhere.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

latest estimates of ukrainian losses surfaces and they are horrendous.

I think you have been fed the figures for dead Putinistas, barbie.

Secondly these drones are most certainly made in Russia, even though it's iranian design.

So Russians are so stupid that they make drones, send them to Iran then have to go pick them up? Sounds stupid enough for the Putler military...

From August, widely reported and supported with first hand accounts:

Russian cargo planes have quietly picked up the first of scores of Iranian-made combat drones for use against Ukraine, in a move that underscores deepening ties between Moscow and Tehran while also highlighting Russia’s struggles to supply its overstretched military.

Russia didn't even bother to deny it at the time. Now, months later it has become a(nother) point of embarrassment for the hapless corrupt war criminals of the Russian military, forcing shills like barbie to make up more crap to spew in places like this.

How pathetic is it to be a nation state and need Iran to arm you!? Makes Russia look like Hezbollah.

 

[barbos]

Not much progress near Kherson either, but a lot of talk about Russians evacuating that city, like for Svatove and Kreminna and Troitske in the north.

Yes, they talk civilians into evacuating because nazi scam keep shelling them.
It's better to move people out of range.

Think about it for a moment, heroic ukrainian army is shelling their own people.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I've got a better question. What guarantees are there that Russia will adhere to the cease fire conditions this time? Creating a cease fire just so we can do all this again in five years isn't a cease fire - it's a shitty pause. And all indications show any cease fire that Putin is willing to agree to now makes war a certainty in the not too distant future.

The only guarantee would be defensible borders Right now that's not the case: the Russian bridgehead in Kherson would threaten Odessa as well as give Russia ability to hit Ukraine's supply lines to Zaporizhzhia.

But let's say Ukraine takes Kherson. I think that might work out. But Ukraine isn't going to surrender the remaining areas without trying to liberate them. That would be a political impossibility and any leader in Ukraine who tries it would be branded a traitor. Meanwhile in Russia, Putin still probably harbors illusions about complete control of Ukraine or at least land connection to Transnistria. So unfortunately even though I think that the eventual border will be roughly the current frontline, it will take a long time before that's going to be accepted by both sides.

Amazing how two sides have completely opposite perspectives on this war.
You still think that Ukraine is winning or can win. Your propaganda must be very strong.
Ukraine can't take back anything. All their (multiple) attempts at taking back anything were bloody (literally) failures.

Well, being war... the blood part was apparent.

Meanwhile, latest estimates of ukrainian losses surfaces and they are horrendous.
They use open sources from Ukraine to do the estimation. And the number is 400K, including 50K mercenaries.

Man, this is like Vietnam. Soon Russians will have killed every Ukrainian three times over.

They are thinking about mobilizing 60 year olds. These ukrainian imbeciles die for nothing.

And the Russians died defeating imaginary Nazis after the initial attempt to overthrow the Ukrainian government by making them flee... failed.

Ukraine, with Western limited weapon assistance and lots of intel assistance has put up a much harder fight than Russia ever anticipated. The gains in Ukraine have been very limited for Russia, especially in context of the time it has taken to make those gains. Russia lost a warship and part of a symbolic bridge in all this too. Russia is importing weapons from Iran. You keep bravo'ing Russia in this, but the fact that "this" is still on going indicates none of this is remotely going to plan for Russia and Putin.

 

[barbos]

We tend to think of this war as confined to Ukraine, but it is really a war between Russia and Europe--a war whose violent side has not spread beyond the borders of Ukraine yet. And one could, of course, include the entire Western alliance, because Europe is a vital part of that. The main weapons used on the nonviolent fronts are primarily economic and diplomatic. The sabotage of the Russian pipeline in the Baltic was part of Russia's economic front, as it seeks to cut off the delivery of essential LNG supplies. The defensive reaction has been to ship LNG into Europe, which is not prepared for that form of delivery. Here is an article from the front lines of that economic war:

Dozens of LNG-laden ships queue off Europe's coasts unable to unload​

It's not so much about this war, than a longer term plan of Putin to make Europe reliant on Russian energy. Before the war, Germany got 55% of its natural gas from Russia. Sure, they could have diversified, but who's going to invest billions of euros to build LNG terminals, which might never recoup the investment?

The root cause of the problem is that in Europe and west in general, the energy industry is controller by private companies, whereas in Russia they're state controlled and are capable of longer term planning and also using energy as a political tool: friendly governments get discounts, unfriendly ones are threatened with cutting off the deliveries. Ironically, only way to shield from this is to more socialism. In retrospect, German government should have made a political decision that they will build those terminals for more expensive LNG and cap the Russian gas deliveries even if it doesn't make economic sense.

There are similar risky dependencies to China for solar panels, rare Earth minerals, and whatever other resources.

True, reliance on Russian resources complicates illegal western war on Russia.

If the west was at war with Russia... you would no longer have the capacity to transmit your energy resources anywhere.

That's the best west can do right now. And yes it's a war west started.

 

[barbos]

And the Russians died defeating imaginary Nazis after the initial attempt to overthrow the Ukrainian government by making them flee... failed

This world salad is too complicated for me.
I know it's hard but think for a moment now. Why would ukrainians do another mobilization? and take 60 year olds, what really happened to people who were mobilized earlier?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If the west was at war with Russia... you would no longer have the capacity to transmit your energy resources anywhere.

That's the best west can do right now. And yes it's a war west started.

Dude, the west (US and Britain) would lay waste to your pipeline infrastructure from subs up north. If the West wanted to hurt Russia badly, it could. You are deluding yourself if you think the West is even trying. Right now, the main thing holding the West back is fear of Putin going scorched Earth.

 

[laughing dog]

That's the best west can do right now. And yes it's a war west started.

The West did not invade Ukraine. Your claim is more than counterfactual - it is horseshit propaganda that only those who do not have access to reality would believe.

I do wonder how barbos is doing at the front.

 

[barbos]

If the west was at war with Russia... you would no longer have the capacity to transmit your energy resources anywhere.

That's the best west can do right now. And yes it's a war west started.

Dude, the west (US and Britain) would lay waste to your pipeline infrastructure from subs up north. If the West wanted to hurt Russia badly, it could. You are deluding yourself if you think the West is even trying. Right now, the main thing holding the West back is fear of Putin going
scorched Earth.

Hitler made the same mistake you do.
And our pipeline? It's german pipeline and it's already wasted ..... by you.
Speaking of pipelines. You have them too, and Russia have subs too.
And nukes, and they are pretty close to Warsaw, .... and Washington for that matter, and New York.
NATO can't go to open war with Russia. So ukrainian cretins is the next best thing.
You co-opted them, the same way you co-opted Georgians in 2008.
Georgians learned their lesson rather quickly and doing well now. Ukrainians are not learning so far. That means Ukraine will cease to exist.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

If the west was at war with Russia... you would no longer have the capacity to transmit your energy resources anywhere.

That's the best west can do right now. And yes it's a war west started.

Dude, the west (US and Britain) would lay waste to your pipeline infrastructure from subs up north. If the West wanted to hurt Russia badly, it could. You are deluding yourself if you think the West is even trying. Right now, the main thing holding the West back is fear of Putin going
scorched Earth.

Hitler made the same mistake you do.

We opened up a second front?

And our pipeline? It's german pipeline and it's already wasted ..... by you.

That's cute.

Speaking of pipelines. You have them too, and Russia have subs too.

No shit Sherlock. Who is saying that a war between the US and Russia would be quaint? I'm just saying that you are out of your fucking mind thinking the West is at war with Russia.

And nukes, and they are pretty close to Warsaw, .... and Washington for that matter, and New York.
NATO can't go to open war with Russia.

Wait... I thought the whole fucking problem Russia had was worrying about NATO going to war with Russia... and now you are saying NATO can't go to war with Russia due to the whole MAD issue. Well, I'd consider that progress for you, if you wouldn't recant your mistaken observation in a moment.

So ukrainian cretins is the next best thing.
You co-opted them, the same way you co-opted Georgians in 2008.
Georgians learned their lesson rather quickly and doing well now. Ukrainians are not learning so far. That means Ukraine will cease to exist.

Yeah, this is nothing but ignoring the fact that Russia has made almost no gains in Ukraine up to this point, other than absorbing "rebel" gains in the last several years. Russia is getting arms from Iran because Russia is pathetic and can't produce their own conventional weapons. This hasn't gone to plan for Russia, but at least the bodybag industry in Russia is booming. Though, knowing Russia, we'll probably find mass graves they made for their own soldiers in Ukraine... although it was probably easier just to abandon the bodies in place and let them rot.

Enjoy the death and carnage. I'm sure you'll have more excuses for why he WWI like standstill in Ukraine is all the West's fault and Russia is totally winning.

 

[barbos]

Russia cannot replace what they are expending at this rate. I'

You said Russia had run out of missiles in March.
Reality is, Russia can launch 100 cruise missiles a day for 6 months.
The reason why "iranian" drones are used instead of "real" cruise missiles is because they are cheap and effective against NATO controlled regime in Ukraine. It's economy, stupid!

 

[barbos]

Yeah, this is nothing but ignoring the fact that Russia has made almost no gains in Ukraine up to this point, other than absorbing "rebel" gains in the last several years.

Russian army is not subject to your schedule. They are operating on their own.

 

[lpetrich]

Liberal lawmakers urge Biden to shift Ukraine strategy - The Washington Post

In the letter, the 30 Democrats led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, call on Biden to pair the unprecedented economic and military support the United States is providing Ukraine with a “proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a cease fire.

The letter itself

Signed by Pramila Jayapal (head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus), Earl Blumenauer, Cori Bush, Jesús G. "Chuy" García, Raúl M. Grijalva, Sara Jacobs, Ro Khanna, Barbara Lee, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Sheila Jackson Lee, Mark Pocan, Nydia M. Velázquez, Gwen S. Moore, Yvette D. Clarke, Henry C. "Hank" Johnson, Jr., Rashida Tlaib, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Mondaire Jones, Peter A. DeFazio, Jamaal Bowman, Ed.D., Marie Newman, Alma S. Adams, Ph.D., Chellie Pingree, Jamie Raskin, Bonnie Watson Coleman, Mark Takano, André Carson, Donald M. Payne, Jr., Mark DeSaulnier

PJ then issued a statement "clarifying" that letter.

“Let me be clear: we are united as Democrats in our unequivocal commitment to supporting Ukraine in their fight for their democracy and freedom in the face of the illegal and outrageous Russian invasion,” Jayapal said. “Diplomacy is an important tool that can save lives — but it is just one tool.”

Ukrainians say U.S. Democrats pressuring for peace talks don’t get Putin - The Washington Post

Members of Ukraine’s political elite rejected demands by some congressional Democrats for negotiations with Russia to end the war, saying this was “not a viable option,” after a group of liberals called on President Biden to push Kyiv for direct talks with Moscow.

The Ukrainians said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had closed off any possibility of negotiations by illegally declaring the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, and that the Russians, who are facing repeated setbacks on the battlefield, would use any cease-fire to rebuild their strength and then resume Putin’s plan to steal Ukrainian territory and destroy Ukraine as a nation.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah, this is nothing but ignoring the fact that Russia has made almost no gains in Ukraine up to this point, other than absorbing "rebel" gains in the last several years.

Russian army is not subject to your schedule. They are operating on their own.

 

[barbos]

Liberal lawmakers urge Biden to shift Ukraine strategy - The Washington Post

In the letter, the 30 Democrats led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, call on Biden to pair the unprecedented economic and military support the United States is providing Ukraine with a “proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a cease fire.

The letter itself

Signed by Pramila Jayapal (head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus), Earl Blumenauer, Cori Bush, Jesús G. "Chuy" García, Raúl M. Grijalva, Sara Jacobs, Ro Khanna, Barbara Lee, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Sheila Jackson Lee, Mark Pocan, Nydia M. Velázquez, Gwen S. Moore, Yvette D. Clarke, Henry C. "Hank" Johnson, Jr., Rashida Tlaib, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Mondaire Jones, Peter A. DeFazio, Jamaal Bowman, Ed.D., Marie Newman, Alma S. Adams, Ph.D., Chellie Pingree, Jamie Raskin, Bonnie Watson Coleman, Mark Takano, André Carson, Donald M. Payne, Jr., Mark DeSaulnier

PJ then issued a statement "clarifying" that letter.

“Let me be clear: we are united as Democrats in our unequivocal commitment to supporting Ukraine in their fight for their democracy and freedom in the face of the illegal and outrageous Russian invasion,” Jayapal said. “Diplomacy is an important tool that can save lives — but it is just one tool.”

Ukrainians say U.S. Democrats pressuring for peace talks don’t get Putin - The Washington Post

Members of Ukraine’s political elite rejected demands by some congressional Democrats for negotiations with Russia to end the war, saying this was “not a viable option,” after a group of liberals called on President Biden to push Kyiv for direct talks with Moscow.

The Ukrainians said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had closed off any possibility of negotiations by illegally declaring the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, and that the Russians, who are facing repeated setbacks on the battlefield, would use any cease-fire to rebuild their strength and then resume Putin’s plan to steal Ukrainian territory and destroy Ukraine as a nation.

There is no point in talks with ukrainian regime. They are bunch of nazis who are controlled by US neocons. You want war to end? Stop supporting it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Liberal lawmakers urge Biden to shift Ukraine strategy - The Washington Post

In the letter, the 30 Democrats led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, call on Biden to pair the unprecedented economic and military support the United States is providing Ukraine with a “proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a cease fire.

The letter itself

Signed by Pramila Jayapal (head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus), Earl Blumenauer, Cori Bush, Jesús G. "Chuy" García, Raúl M. Grijalva, Sara Jacobs, Ro Khanna, Barbara Lee, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Sheila Jackson Lee, Mark Pocan, Nydia M. Velázquez, Gwen S. Moore, Yvette D. Clarke, Henry C. "Hank" Johnson, Jr., Rashida Tlaib, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Mondaire Jones, Peter A. DeFazio, Jamaal Bowman, Ed.D., Marie Newman, Alma S. Adams, Ph.D., Chellie Pingree, Jamie Raskin, Bonnie Watson Coleman, Mark Takano, André Carson, Donald M. Payne, Jr., Mark DeSaulnier

Wait for it...

PJ then issued a statement "clarifying" that letter.

“Let me be clear: we are united as Democrats in our unequivocal commitment to supporting Ukraine in their fight for their democracy and freedom in the face of the illegal and outrageous Russian invasion,” Jayapal said. “Diplomacy is an important tool that can save lives — but it is just one tool.”

Yeah... that is politics for "we said something stupid". Why don't you folk actually work on putting together some actual medical reforms... something fucking progressive instead of shitting on about Ukraine.

 

[barbos]

Yeah, this is nothing but ignoring the fact that Russia has made almost no gains in Ukraine up to this point, other than absorbing "rebel" gains in the last several years.

Russian army is not subject to your schedule. They are operating on their own.

Yes, russians are not in a hurry. Winter is coming. Hopefully it will be very cold
Especially in London/Paris/Berlin

On the other hand, Ukrainians ARE on a tight schedule, elections in US and then damn winter

 

[lpetrich]

Then Democrats withdraw letter urging Biden to rethink Ukraine war strategy - The Washington Post

They also worried the letter could create more pressure on Biden as he tries to sustain domestic support for the war effort, at a time when the region is heading into a potentially difficult winter and Republicans are threatening to cut aid to Ukraine if they retake Congress.

On Tuesday, Jayapal said the letter had been drafted several months ago and “released by staff without vetting.”

“As Chair of the Caucus, I accept responsibility for this. Because of the timing, our message is being conflated by some as being equivalent to the recent statement by Republican Leader [Kevin] McCarthy threatening an end to aid to Ukraine if Republicans take over,” Jayapal said in a statement.

“The proximity of these statements created the unfortunate appearance that Democrats, who have strongly and unanimously supported and voted for every package of military, strategic, and economic assistance to the Ukrainian people, are somehow aligned with Republicans who seek to pull the plug on American support for President Zelensky and the Ukrainian forces.”

Some of the other signers also backtracked from that letter.

Mark Pocan on Twitter: "@yoshikoherrera @RepMarkPocan @POTUS Hear you. First, this was written in July & I have no idea why it went out now. Bad timing. Second, it was trying to get to a cease-fire & diplomacy as others were banging war drums, not criticizing Biden. Third, I’ve supported the efforts & will continue. Over analyzed by some." / Twitter

Congresswoman Sara Jacobs on Twitter: "Timing in diplomacy is everything.
I signed this letter on June 30, but a lot has changed since then. I wouldn't sign it today.
We have to continue supporting Ukraine economically and militarily to give them the leverage they need to end this war." / Twitter

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Yeah, this is nothing but ignoring the fact that Russia has made almost no gains in Ukraine up to this point, other than absorbing "rebel" gains in the last several years.

Russian army is not subject to your schedule. They are operating on their own.

Yes, russians are not in a hurry.

I think you meant the Russian military is running out of people to be in a hurry.

Winter is coming. Hopefully it will be very cold

Another reference to you wanting people to suffer, which has become your calling card.