How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

Liberal lawmakers urge Biden to shift Ukraine strategy - The Washington Post

In the letter, the 30 Democrats led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, call on Biden to pair the unprecedented economic and military support the United States is providing Ukraine with a “proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a cease fire.

The letter itself

Signed by Pramila Jayapal (head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus), Earl Blumenauer, Cori Bush, Jesús G. "Chuy" García, Raúl M. Grijalva, Sara Jacobs, Ro Khanna, Barbara Lee, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Sheila Jackson Lee, Mark Pocan, Nydia M. Velázquez, Gwen S. Moore, Yvette D. Clarke, Henry C. "Hank" Johnson, Jr., Rashida Tlaib, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Mondaire Jones, Peter A. DeFazio, Jamaal Bowman, Ed.D., Marie Newman, Alma S. Adams, Ph.D., Chellie Pingree, Jamie Raskin, Bonnie Watson Coleman, Mark Takano, André Carson, Donald M. Payne, Jr., Mark DeSaulnier

PJ then issued a statement "clarifying" that letter.

“Let me be clear: we are united as Democrats in our unequivocal commitment to supporting Ukraine in their fight for their democracy and freedom in the face of the illegal and outrageous Russian invasion,” Jayapal said. “Diplomacy is an important tool that can save lives — but it is just one tool.”

Ukrainians say U.S. Democrats pressuring for peace talks don’t get Putin - The Washington Post

Members of Ukraine’s political elite rejected demands by some congressional Democrats for negotiations with Russia to end the war, saying this was “not a viable option,” after a group of liberals called on President Biden to push Kyiv for direct talks with Moscow.

The Ukrainians said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had closed off any possibility of negotiations by illegally declaring the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, and that the Russians, who are facing repeated setbacks on the battlefield, would use any cease-fire to rebuild their strength and then resume Putin’s plan to steal Ukrainian territory and destroy Ukraine as a nation.

There is no point in talks with ukrainian regime. They are bunch of nazis who are controlled by US neocons. You want war to end? Stop supporting it.

You wish.

There will be no independent Ukraine left if you don't change the course.
Russia can not afford to have this shit on its border.

 

[barbos]

So you admit you want Europe cold.

Absolutely, 10000000000000000000000000000%.

 

[Elixir]

The US elections will be over in two weeks. Winter won't even officially start for almost two months.
How many more thousands of Russian conscripts will die before Republican fascists can pull support for the Ukrainian defense?
Lots. And that assumes a Right Wing landslide in two week, which is looking less than certain at this point.

 

[Jayjay]

I've got a better question. What guarantees are there that Russia will adhere to the cease fire conditions this time? Creating a cease fire just so we can do all this again in five years isn't a cease fire - it's a shitty pause. And all indications show any cease fire that Putin is willing to agree to now makes war a certainty in the not too distant future.

The only guarantee would be defensible borders Right now that's not the case: the Russian bridgehead in Kherson would threaten Odessa as well as give Russia ability to hit Ukraine's supply lines to Zaporizhzhia.

But let's say Ukraine takes Kherson. I think that might work out. But Ukraine isn't going to surrender the remaining areas without trying to liberate them. That would be a political impossibility and any leader in Ukraine who tries it would be branded a traitor. Meanwhile in Russia, Putin still probably harbors illusions about complete control of Ukraine or at least land connection to Transnistria. So unfortunately even though I think that the eventual border will be roughly the current frontline, it will take a long time before that's going to be accepted by both sides.

Amazing how two sides have completely opposite perspectives on this war.
You still think that Ukraine is winning or can win. Your propaganda must be very strong.

I was describing a hypothetical. I don't think Ukraine can "win", if the definition of winning is regaining all lost territory. But I don't claim to know how much Ukraine will lose, or when it realizes it. I'd give Kherson city about 50% odds.

But what I'm sure of is that Ukraine isn't going to make peace until it has tried to retake the territory, or unless it loses western support and is forced into a crappy interim peace. Ukraine has to hit hits head on the wall for a while before that happens. Right now 86% of Ukrainians want to continue fighting, only 10% are for negotiations.

Ukraine can't take anything. All their (multiple) attempts at taking anything were bloody (literally) failures.

They were able to take back most of Kharkiv oblast. Due to Russian incompetence, but it still counts.

In Kherson, Russians are evacuating collaborators and looting everything that isn't bolted down, and some things that are bolted down: statues, fire trucks, busses, etc. Now I don't know how hard the fight is going to be, but based on that it looks like Russian side is at least considering the possibility of defeat. We'll know in a few weeks. In the mean time, rememeber what happened to Snake Island after all your boasting about the alleged losses Ukraine suffered there.

 

[barbos]

They were able to take back most of Kharkiv oblast

Nope, russians simply left it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There will be no independent Ukraine left if you don't change the course.
Russia can not afford to have this shit on its border.

You should have ended at "left". There is no way an independent Ukraine can meet your parameters. There is no "change in the course" that keeps Ukraine as "Independent" as the only "Independent" Ukraine that you'll allow is something like an "Independent" Belarus.

 

[barbos]

In Kherson, Russians are evacuating collaborators and looting everything that isn't bolted down,

That's what western propaganda says, they are lying.
And how would you even know that? There are no western journalists there to report that garbage.

 

[ZiprHead]

Liberal lawmakers urge Biden to shift Ukraine strategy - The Washington Post

In the letter, the 30 Democrats led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, call on Biden to pair the unprecedented economic and military support the United States is providing Ukraine with a “proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a cease fire.

The letter itself

Signed by Pramila Jayapal (head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus), Earl Blumenauer, Cori Bush, Jesús G. "Chuy" García, Raúl M. Grijalva, Sara Jacobs, Ro Khanna, Barbara Lee, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Sheila Jackson Lee, Mark Pocan, Nydia M. Velázquez, Gwen S. Moore, Yvette D. Clarke, Henry C. "Hank" Johnson, Jr., Rashida Tlaib, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Mondaire Jones, Peter A. DeFazio, Jamaal Bowman, Ed.D., Marie Newman, Alma S. Adams, Ph.D., Chellie Pingree, Jamie Raskin, Bonnie Watson Coleman, Mark Takano, André Carson, Donald M. Payne, Jr., Mark DeSaulnier

PJ then issued a statement "clarifying" that letter.

“Let me be clear: we are united as Democrats in our unequivocal commitment to supporting Ukraine in their fight for their democracy and freedom in the face of the illegal and outrageous Russian invasion,” Jayapal said. “Diplomacy is an important tool that can save lives — but it is just one tool.”

Ukrainians say U.S. Democrats pressuring for peace talks don’t get Putin - The Washington Post

Members of Ukraine’s political elite rejected demands by some congressional Democrats for negotiations with Russia to end the war, saying this was “not a viable option,” after a group of liberals called on President Biden to push Kyiv for direct talks with Moscow.

The Ukrainians said that Russian President Vladimir Putin had closed off any possibility of negotiations by illegally declaring the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, and that the Russians, who are facing repeated setbacks on the battlefield, would use any cease-fire to rebuild their strength and then resume Putin’s plan to steal Ukrainian territory and destroy Ukraine as a nation.

There is no point in talks with ukrainian regime. They are bunch of nazis who are controlled by US neocons. You want war to end? Stop supporting it.

You wish.

There will be no independent Ukraine left if you don't change the course.
Russia can not afford to have this shit on its border.

Sure it can. It just doesn't know it.

You do know there are other countries on Russia's border, right?

 

[Jayjay]

Now Russia is using Iranian drones and operators.

NATO controlled Ukraine have been using western weapons and operators for months now.

Show me one piece of evidence that Ukraine is using "western operators", rather than just having been trained to use the equipment?

But anyway, regardless of who did it first, you don't get to whine about western weapons if you yourself are resorting to Iranian drones, tanks from Belarus, and ammunition from North Korea.

And by the way, what you just said is most certainly a lie. First, no iranian operators (no need for that). Secondly these drones are most certainly made in Russia, even though it's iranian design.

Probably not operators, true, but trainers definitely.

 

[barbos]

Show me one piece of evidence that Ukraine is using "western operators", rather than just having been trained to use the equipment?

LOL. Last time I checked you needed 6 months to learn how to operate HIMARS.
Poles are operating it.
Ukrainians complained that they had to use google fucking translate to read instructions for these useless anti-tank systems in the early days of war.

And here you want to translate HIMARS to russian and then teach ukrainians to use them in a matter of weeks.

 

[barbos]

Probably not operators, true, but trainers definitely.

Fucking poles are operating it.
Same with german tanks, germans said it themselves, you can't go from T-72 to leopard.

 

[Jayjay]

True, reliance on Russian resources complicates illegal western war on Russia.

Ukraine is defending its own territory from an invading country. There's nothing illegal about it.

The rest of us are just helping out a bit.

 

[barbos]

True, reliance on Russian resources complicates illegal western war on Russia.

Ukraine is defending its own territory from an invading country. There's nothing illegal about it.

The rest of us are just helping out a bit.

Serbia called and said they wanted their territory back
.....

wait, Yugoslavia called too
And Mexico! they called too.

Sorry man, that's not Ukrainian territory anymore. It's Russia now. It never was Ukraine in fact. It has always been Russia, and they know it. That's why they indiscriminately bomb civilians there, have been for 8 years.

 

[Jayjay]

The Ukrainians are gradually getting closer and closer to Svatove. I've found another source for their purported breakthrough to the SW of that town.

I think the momentum may be lost at this point. You can always find some "source" in twitter for any prognosis. I believe it when there are photos from town hall with Russian flags being torn off. Until then it's speculation.

 

[barbos]

The rest of us are just helping out a bit.

That's cute. No, you were made to believe that crap. In reality what we have here is neocons waging a war on Russia. They don't care about ukrainian idiots. They pay them money to hurt Russia and die.

 

[Jayjay]

Not much progress near Kherson either, but a lot of talk about Russians evacuating that city, like for Svatove and Kreminna and Troitske in the north.

Yes, they talk civilians into evacuating because nazi scam keep shelling them.
It's better to move people out of range.

Nobody was actually shelling Kherson. Ukraine isn't even within artillery range of the city as far as I know. Russia just said that Ukraine was going to shell the city. But more likely, it'll be Russia who will turn the city to rubble if/when they withdraw.

Occasionally Ukraine hits civilians as collateral damage near military targets, but by and large they're avoiding it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The rest of us are just helping out a bit.

That's cute. No, you were made to believe that crap. In reality what we have here is neocons waging a war on Russia.

It has been a while since I've looked it up, but usually doesn't one need to target someone, in order to be fighting a war against them? At best, this is a proxy war. But the truth is, if Russia wasn't invading Ukrainian territory, there would be no "war on Russia".

They don't care about ukrainian idiots. They pay them money to hurt Russia and die.

This is cult level delusion.

 

[barbos]

I think the momentum may be lost at this point

There have never been any momentum. Russians had 2000 troops in Kharkov.
2000 of Eastern Ukraine volunteers. It had been pretty much abandoned at the time of that great offensive. Pretty much all 2000 left unharmed while about 2-3k of ukrainians soldiers were killed in that offensive.
Momentum is a creation of western propaganda which needed that to keep public support of Ukraine high.

Ukraine's losses are horrendous compared to russians.

 

[barbos]

Nobody was actually shelling Kherson

Well, western media does not report that, true.
You are aware that Kiev regime cut water supply to Crimea immediately after they voted to leave Ukraine in 2014?
Same here, they are simply shelling russian civilians in "Ukraine"

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I think the momentum may be lost at this point

There have never been any momentum. Russians have 2000 troops in Kharkov.
2000 of Eastern Ukraine volunteers. It had been pretty much abandoned at the time of that great offensive. Pretty much all 2000 left unharmed while about 2-3k of ukrainians soldiers were killed in that offensive.
Momentum is a creation of western propaganda which needed that to keep public support of Ukraine high.

Ukraine's losses are horrendous compared to russians.

And more cult level delusion.