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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

T.G.G. Moogly said:
A great post. But it isn't Russia. It isn't the hundreds of thousands who fled the war and Putin's mobilization. It is Putin's gangster regime and their control of the entire country. They fear democracy and accountability far more than they want Ukraine as part of some great long lost empire of glory. They want to keep their gains and Ukraine is dangerously close to everything that matters to Putin and his gangsters. It may be a minor distinction but it is an important one because it drives everything.
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I also used to feel this way, and the optimistic part of me wants to believe this. But consider this: John Mearsheimer didn't just predict Russia's attack in the runup to 2014. He predicted the attack back in 1993. He knew that Russia would INEVITABLY attack Ukraine again if Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons. Why? Because Russians are psychos, not that Mearsheimer would ever phrase it like that. Keep in mind that this was 1993 and Putin didn't come to power until 2000.

Russia has a fundamental problem with their culture. You are right that the problem doesn't affect ALL of them. But it does affect far too many of them. The concerns that whoever replaces Putin will be just as bad, or worse, aren't just fanciful whims. They are based on understanding Russians in general and their broken perceptions of the world.
 
zorq said:
T.G.G. Moogly said:
A great post. But it isn't Russia. It isn't the hundreds of thousands who fled the war and Putin's mobilization. It is Putin's gangster regime and their control of the entire country. They fear democracy and accountability far more than they want Ukraine as part of some great long lost empire of glory. They want to keep their gains and Ukraine is dangerously close to everything that matters to Putin and his gangsters. It may be a minor distinction but it is an important one because it drives everything.
Click to expand...

I also used to feel this way, and the optimistic part of me wants to believe this. But consider this: John Mearsheimer didn't just predict Russia's attack in the runup to 2014. He predicted the attack back in 1993. He knew that Russia would INEVITABLY attack Ukraine again if Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons. Why? Because Russians are psychos, not that Mearsheimer would ever phrase it like that. Keep in mind that this was 1993 and Putin didn't come to power until 2000.

Russia has a fundamental problem with their culture. You are right that the problem doesn't affect ALL of them. But it does affect far too many of them. The concerns that whoever replaces Putin will be just as bad, or worse, aren't just fanciful whims. They are based on understanding Russians in general and their broken perceptions of the world.
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You'd be just the same given the same inputs and experiences. I agree the country is broken, but broken like a gangster state, like Hitler's Germany. Russia will change in time just like its predecessor. It will certainly take a while and much sacrifice.
 
Tulsi Gabbard's response to the progressive Democrats' withdrawing their letter: Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 on Twitter: "This is one of the main reasons I left the Dem Party: it’s COMPLETELY controlled by an elite cabal of warmongers. Any Dem who opposes their warmongering agenda is beat into submission. Sadly, to vote Democrat is a vote for war & more war—possibly nuclear (link)" / Twitter

Slow progress toward Svatove.

(((Tendar))) on Twitter: "If you combine both attack vectors of the Ukrainian Army it is not hard to guess that Svatove is one of the main objectives in that sector. But to cut off Kreminna is no less important. It also emphasizes it that Ukraine has the full initiative. #Ukraine #Luhansk #Svatove (pic link)" / Twitter

The Ukr army is pushing to the south of Svatove and also halfway between Svatove and Troitske.

Dmitri on Twitter: "Another group of mobiks that were captured by the 92nd brigade in the Svatove area. They were sent to the frontline at a gunpoint against their will, in their own words. https://t.co/rYfULkd6ra" / Twitter

Dmitri on Twitter: "Another group of mobiks that were captured by the 92nd brigade in the Svatove area. They were sent to the frontline at a gunpoint against their will, in their own words. (vid link)" / Twitter

Alec Burns on Twitter: "Iranian drone factory in Syria bombed by Israel.
Thank You Israel !!! 🇮🇱 ❤️
Pay a visit to the drone factory inside Iran too.
#Ukraine #Ukrainewar #Kherson (pic link)" / Twitter

Nick DM on Twitter: "@War_Mapper I have been surprised by the stoutness of 🇷🇺 resistance over the Troitske - Svatove - Kremina axis.
I had been expecting that losses of Lyman and Izyum would have been contagious.
Am sure 🇷🇺 appreciates importance of keeping Troitske-Starobilsk-Luhansk railway over winter (pic link)" / Twitter
 
 
SLD said:
Will Republicans vote to cutoff Ukraine Aid?


McCarthy’s kind of backtracking now from earlier comments, saying he’s just wanting to make sure that there’s accountability for the funds. But Fucker Carlson is pushing hard the narrative that we should be supporting Pewstain and he’s having an effect with the base.
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So are we 6 months away from Carlson arguing why we should sell Alaska back to Russia?
 
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T.G.G. Moogly said:
You'd be just the same given the same inputs and experiences. I agree the country is broken, but broken like a gangster state, like Hitler's Germany. Russia will change in time just like its predecessor. It will certainly take a while and much sacrifice.
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I think that there's a much more recent and relevant predecessor, the US invasion of Iraq.

Like the current Ukraine situation, it was a naked grab for wealth and power and strategically valuable territory. Like Russia, the US government had to lie and lie to keep any support from the populace. And like Russian propaganda, it worked.

Unlike Putin though, Bush managed to create a "Coalition of the Willing". Dumbass as it looks in hindsight, plenty of governments joined in. Cameron's GB was unusually stupid in that regard, but there were lots. People (not me) joined the USA in support. People around the world joined the USA to rescue Iraqis from their government.

Putin has mostly managed to create the opposite of Bush's Coalition. Putin has managed to create a Coalition against him and Russian opportunism. The state of his war is as bad as the state of Bush's war, this far in. But unlike Bush, Putin has united most of his neighbors in opposition.

I don't think that the world will take as long to tell Putin "Fuck Off" as it did for them to tell Bush.
Tom
 
TomC said:
T.G.G. Moogly said:
You'd be just the same given the same inputs and experiences. I agree the country is broken, but broken like a gangster state, like Hitler's Germany. Russia will change in time just like its predecessor. It will certainly take a while and much sacrifice.
Click to expand...
I think that there's a much more recent and relevant predecessor, the US invasion of Iraq.

Like the current Ukraine situation, it was a naked grab for wealth and power and strategically valuable territory. Like Russia, the US government had to lie and lie to keep any support from the populace. And like Russian propaganda, it worked.

Unlike Putin though, Bush managed to create a "Coalition of the Willing". Dumbass as it looks in hindsight, plenty of governments joined in. Cameron's Blair's GB was unusually stupid in that regard, but there were lots. People (not me) joined the USA in support. People around the world joined the USA to rescue Iraqis from their government.
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Poland, we'll never forget!

Yeah, this is a bit of an historical fog. The US had a COALITION (<- all caps) for the Afghanistan operation. That coalition (<- no caps) dwindled to the UK, Poland, and several other small nations that contributed dozens of troops. In general, the "coalition" (<- notice the sarcastic quotes) was really just the US and UK.
TomC said:
Putin has mostly managed to create the opposite of Bush's Coalition. Putin has managed to create a Coalition against him and Russian opportunism. The state of his war is as bad as the state of Bush's war, this far in. But unlike Bush, Putin has united most of his neighbors in opposition.
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This was never supposed to be a war. Much to barbos' protest, this wasn't even supposed to be much of a military operation... because Ukraine was supposed to give up immediately. But the troops never even made it to Kviv. Putin underestimated the intelligence and salesmanship of a comedian and that the mayor of Kviv professionally beat people up very well for a living. Russia didn't need a coalition, this thing was going end as quick as it started, like Crimea. This was more like Afghanistan, really. W did draw a line and say no more, they took action. Biden didn't draw a line, he said 'enough' and the Western Allies did as well.

Iraq isn't remotely similar to Ukraine. Both stories involved lying in the run up to the invasions. But as I noted, Russia was supposed to just take over, where as the US negotiated with the Iraqi military to just lay down the arms. Iraq was never really a war, it was an occupation... a very poorly run one. Ukraine was never supposed to be a war, but it became one. A very poorly waged one.
TomC said:
I don't think that the world will take as long to tell Putin "Fuck Off" as it did for them to tell Bush.
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You are clearly misremembering contemporary history. One of the damning things about W, the list is long, was he pissed off our allies prior to 9/11. Then 9/11 came, we rebonded... and then well before Afghanistan was finished, W turned to Iraq (formally... the W Admin was investigating targeting Hussein on 9/12/01) and most of the world was like "DUDE WTF?!" Blair tagged along like a dumb much younger sibling, but that was it. W burned the bridges again with our allies.

There is a reason Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize, it was due to the relief from the chronic fatigue of the W Admin apathy and indifference to the rest of the globe, and that dated to 2003, not 2006 or 2007.
 
lpetrich said:
Also, Israel destroys Iranian drone manufacturing plant in Syria

Not much happening near Kherson. International Observers Ukraine on Twitter: "The ukrianian army and foreign volunteers continue to slowly push forward in the south despite the conditions. Glory to the heroes 🇺🇦 #Kherson is #Ukraine️ (vids link)" / Twitter
Showing some video of some muddy roads.

P.Style on Twitter: "Report of the commander of Blackvil, Stugna, #Kherson region
Russians are so misogynistic, it must be super humiliating that the female Ukrainian commander f***d them up
#Ukraine (vid link)" / Twitter

I don't see much action in between NE and S Ukraine, however, like near Zaporizhia. Neither side seems to be doing much there.
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Seems to me a prime point of attack would be between Zaporizhia and Donestk which would be about Hulyaipole. With the Kerch bridge OOC as a supply route, striking south toward Berdyans'k would further disrupt their supply lines from Mariupol.
 
Ukraine has been fighting very smart. Putin's gang has been fighting very predictably. Ukraine must be planning something unexpected.
 
T.G.G. Moogly said:
Ukraine has been fighting very smart. Putin's gang has been fighting very predictably. Ukraine must be planning something unexpected.
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Or they're just stuck. Weather could be one factor (harder to attack when ground has turned to mud), but also, Ukraine has less weapons, less ammunition, with mobilization underway not as much advantage with manpower, and it's disadvantaged because it has to attack, while Russia just has to defend.

We keep forgetting the fundamental disparity between Ukrainian and Russian forces. Ukraine has to fight smarter and improvise, because it's the weaker party and can't win by brute force.

Right now, Ukraine's offensive is like the first 30 seconds of this clip:



... and we don't know if or when it will reach the "Ahaa!" phase.
 
lpetrich said:
Tulsi Gabbard's response to the progressive Democrats' withdrawing their letter: Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 on Twitter: "This is one of the main reasons I left the Dem Party: it’s COMPLETELY controlled by an elite cabal of warmongers. Any Dem who opposes their warmongering agenda is beat into submission. Sadly, to vote Democrat is a vote for war & more war—possibly nuclear (link)" / Twitter
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Tulsi is weird. Not sure if she is just clueless or deluded. Anyway, I'd love someone to tell her in person that the US isn't invading Ukraine! We're not invading Russia. We're helping a country defend itself and prevent its annihilation from an invader. We're trying to stop the war. Russia wants the US to stop sending support to Ukraine so that it can conquer it and kill its civilians. Jason and Tulsi want us to help Russia in promoting its war.
 
I just read about an intercepted Russian communication stating they have three lines of defense. Didn't say where. The first line is the inmates that were released to fight. The second and third lines are to shoot anyone trying to leave the first and second lines. Brilliant strategy.
 
ZiprHead said:
I just read about an intercepted Russian communication stating they have three lines of defense. Didn't say where. The first line is the inmates that were released to fight. The second and third lines are to shoot anyone trying to leave the first and second lines. Brilliant strategy.
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Similar to the Soviet strategy at the Battle Of Kursk. One difference though is the Soviets enjoye massive material supplies, which Russia now does not have. And as Germany pierced the Russian defensive lines, they became vulnerable to being surroundedand destroyed. Ukraine is now recieving Swedish short range anti-shipping missiles, which will make Russian logistics, resupply from sea, problematic. Ukraine will target supply depots and command posts. It will be a long seige.
 
Reports are coming in from Kalingrad. Kalingrad's Russian military, was gutted to send 11,000 men to Ukraine. There they suffered very heavy loses.
 
bilby said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
One difference though is the Soviets enjoye massive material supplies, which Russia now does not have.
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Can't they just get the British and Americans to resupply them with Lend-Lease material, via Arctic convoys to the northern Russian ports?
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These days, it would be Iran and China and North Korea. Russia has a long land border with China and a short land border with NK. For Iran, one can cross the Caspian Sea or else go through the Central Asian stans.
 
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