How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Jayjay]

I would not say the Russians are better in winter.

In WWII I'd say it was a matter of Germans being totally unprepared for winter. Hitler thought it would be over quickly. They also had maintenance and supply problems.

The Russians(Soviets) advantage was numbers and supplies from North America. The first time I reaD A WWII casualty summary my jaw dropped. Russian-Soviet total casualty estimates run from 20-30 million. It was a war of attrition.

And it's not as if it's the WW2 veterans fighting the war who "are better in winter".

On the contrary, Ukraine has been fighting this war on its own turf since 2014. They know their own winters very well. Russia is bringing in newly mobilized reservists who have no clue how to survive in wet and cold, and even their more experienced troops have mostly fought in Africa and Middle-East.

Russian tanks compared to German tanks were simple, easy to maintain, and rugged.

Russian tactics today seem to be the same, mass attack and disregard for casualties.

Yep.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

WW2 is over. Weapons are now more complex. The U.S. at its peak was rolling out a new B-24 every hour at peak production. Russia created 18,000 Il-2 Sturmaviks. Nobody now can do that with modern F-35s or SU fighter aircraft. Russia cannot field its Armata-14 tanks, because it has a few dozen at best.

 

[bilby]

WW2 is over. Weapons are now more complex. The U.S. at its peak was rolling out a new B-24 every hour at peak production. Russia created 18,000 Il-2 Sturmaviks. Nobody now can do that with modern F-35s or SU fighter aircraft. Russia cannot field its Armata-14 tanks, because it has a few dozen at best.

Indeed.

I am left pondering the value of any weapons system that you dare not deploy in case it gets destroyed.

It would probably have been better strategically to not build any, and to instead spend that money on decent winter gear for your infantry.

But obviously it's too late for Russia to do that. They're stuck with a tank they can't afford to risk, and soldiers with hypothermia.

 

[Jayjay]

WW2 is over. Weapons are now more complex. The U.S. at its peak was rolling out a new B-24 every hour at peak production. Russia created 18,000 Il-2 Sturmaviks. Nobody now can do that with modern F-35s or SU fighter aircraft. Russia cannot field its Armata-14 tanks, because it has a few dozen at best.

Indeed.

I am left pondering the value of any weapons system that you dare not deploy in case it gets destroyed.

It would probably have been better strategically to not build any, and to instead spend that money on decent winter gear for your infantry.

But obviously it's too late for Russia to do that. They're stuck with a tank they can't afford to risk, and soldiers with hypothermia.

I think that's a bigger problem for the west. For example, Grey Eagle drones would be a great addition to Ukraine's arsenal, but I think the US is hesitant to provide them because they'd probably be shot out of the sky eventually.

Same with air defense systems. There aren't enough of NASAMS or Patriots to go around, being advanced and expensive.

This war's most interesting weapons have been cheap, economic UAVs: Bayraktar, Orlan-10, Shahed-136, Lancet. And of course HIMARS which, though not cheap, is a simple launcher that does one thing very, very well.

I worry that Iranian ballistic missiles might become yet another headache for Ukraine, though there's probably an equal chance that they're pieces of junk that can't hit anything.

 

[bilby]

WW2 is over. Weapons are now more complex. The U.S. at its peak was rolling out a new B-24 every hour at peak production. Russia created 18,000 Il-2 Sturmaviks. Nobody now can do that with modern F-35s or SU fighter aircraft. Russia cannot field its Armata-14 tanks, because it has a few dozen at best.

Indeed.

I am left pondering the value of any weapons system that you dare not deploy in case it gets destroyed.

It would probably have been better strategically to not build any, and to instead spend that money on decent winter gear for your infantry.

But obviously it's too late for Russia to do that. They're stuck with a tank they can't afford to risk, and soldiers with hypothermia.

I think that's a bigger problem for the west. For example, Grey Eagle drones would be a great addition to Ukraine's arsenal, but I think the US is hesitant to provide them because they'd probably be shot out of the sky eventually.

Same with air defense systems. There aren't enough of NASAMS or Patriots to go around, being advanced and expensive.

This war's most interesting weapons have been cheap, economic UAVs: Bayraktar, Orlan-10, Shahed-136, Lancet. And of course HIMARS which, though not cheap, is a simple launcher that does one thing very, very well.

I worry that Iranian ballistic missiles might become yet another headache for Ukraine, though there's probably an equal chance that they're pieces of junk that can't hit anything.

I would hazard a guess that Iranian ballistic missiles are probably a hazard to anyone not standing right on their target

Military folks have long suffered the difficulty of deciding whether or not to deploy an expensive and/or highly secret technology in places where the enemy might get their hands on it.

The ASW radar developed by the British during WWII for spotting submarines was, eventually, used over Germany as a bombing radar, but due to the hardiness of the central component, the cavity magnetron, it took a long time to gain approval - the Germans were sure to recover and reverse-engineer any example that was shot down over their territory.

The land-bombing version was codenamed H2S by Bomber Command, because "it stinks that we weren't allowed to use it sooner".

The radar jamming system now called 'chaff', which was codenamed 'window' by the British, was not used for a long time, for similar reasons; It's an incredibly simple and effective idea, and very easily copied, once you see the enemy deploying it. After the war, it turned out that the Germans had also developed it, and were also refraining from using it, to avoid giving away the "secret".

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The military geniuses of Russia had to know late fall and winter was coming months ago. Yet still could not prepare their conscipts to survive all of this with proper winter gear. All the Iranian drones and missiles cannot help with that. It will probably be the case cold will kill more Russians than Ukranian weapons do.

The first order of business for new Russian conscripts to the fronts. Bury the dead conscipts that came before them a few weeks ago.

 

[bilby]

The military geniuses of Russia had to know late fall and winter was coming months ago. Yet still could not prepare their conscipts to survive all of this with proper winter gear. All the Iranian drones and missiles cannot help with that. It will probably be the case cold will kill more Russians than Ukranian weapons do.

The first order of business for new Russian conscripts to the fronts. Bury the dead conscipts that came before them a few weeks ago.

Not quite. The first order of business will be to strip them of their boots and clothes, in the hope of avoiding their fate.

 

[TV and credit cards]

U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine
Cool. For the cost of a nicely optioned Camry, UAF will get a precision weapon that can throughly fuck up RAF GLOCs. Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs can be ordered with a variety of options from RF seekers to GPS guided (stationary) to laser guided (moving target).
They’re saying in Spring. The sooner the better. They’ll have to write up expedited contracting to push it all through in time. Defense contractors love expedited contracting. In various forms, it strips protection against excessive costs and other shenanigans out of the process. Republicans might jump all over that.

 

[Jayjay]

U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine
Cool. For the cost of a nicely optioned Camry, UAF will get a precision weapon that can throughly fuck up RAF GLOCs. Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs can be ordered with a variety of options from RF seekers to GPS guided (stationary) to laser guided (moving target).
They’re saying in Spring. The sooner the better. They’ll have to write up expedited contracting to push it all through in time. Defense contractors love expedited contracting. In various forms, it strips protection against excessive costs and other shenanigans out of the process. Republicans might jump all over that.

So what the heck is it? Sounds like a cruise missile, but launched from M270 or M142.

 

[TV and credit cards]

U.S. weighs sending 100-mile strike weapon to Ukraine
Cool. For the cost of a nicely optioned Camry, UAF will get a precision weapon that can throughly fuck up RAF GLOCs. Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs can be ordered with a variety of options from RF seekers to GPS guided (stationary) to laser guided (moving target).
They’re saying in Spring. The sooner the better. They’ll have to write up expedited contracting to push it all through in time. Defense contractors love expedited contracting. In various forms, it strips protection against excessive costs and other shenanigans out of the process. Republicans might jump all over that.

So what the heck is it? Sounds like a cruise missile, but launched from M270 or M142.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-39_Small_Diameter_Bomb?wprov=sfti1
Toward the end they cover the ground launched version.

 

[Harry Bosch]

The military geniuses of Russia had to know late fall and winter was coming months ago. Yet still could not prepare their conscipts to survive all of this with proper winter gear. All the Iranian drones and missiles cannot help with that. It will probably be the case cold will kill more Russians than Ukranian weapons do.

The first order of business for new Russian conscripts to the fronts. Bury the dead conscipts that came before them a few weeks ago.

Agreed. It's been incredible to see how inept the Russian intelligence has been in this war. They have been wrong about everything.

 

[Elixir]

It's been incredible to see how inept the Russian intelligence has been

Russian intelligence: the oxymoron of the year.

 

[steve_bank]

The sad part is a few days of NATO air campaigns would purge Russians from Ukraine.

 

[steve_bank]

The military geniuses of Russia had to know late fall and winter was coming months ago. Yet still could not prepare their conscipts to survive all of this with proper winter gear. All the Iranian drones and missiles cannot help with that. It will probably be the case cold will kill more Russians than Ukranian weapons do.

The first order of business for new Russian conscripts to the fronts. Bury the dead conscipts that came before them a few weeks ago.

Russia is a dictatorship. I exoect one goes along to get along.

I watched a clip of a Russian itellgince leader making a report to Putin. The guy was the ewuivalent to the head of the FBI or a simlar agency.

Putin sat at a desk on a raised platform and the guy who was standing at a podium.

The man dd not say what Putin wanted to hear and Putin ranted and raged. The man viisbly shken shaken and cowed then said what Putin wanted to hear.

That Putin called up reserves and sent them untrained and illequipped into Ukraine says it all.

 

[steve_bank]

I wonder if a newer version of the old barrage balloons might work against drones. The slow cheap ones doing infrastructure damage.

 

[TV and credit cards]

And here they sit:


Why? They block all of the roads and leave the fields wide open. Perhaps it's all they can do. The only weapon of war Russia seems to possess in any great quantity still is the S-300. Perhaps there just isn't enough military equipment to go around and Russia cannot produce enough to supply their armed forces adequately to do anything other than block the roads.

I don't think it gets nearly as wet and muddy here in the Kherson region so flanking these fortifications through the fields should not be an issue. Or Russia is trying to entice Ukraine to keep more troops in the south contemplating river crossings just to keep them spread out as they did with putting Russian troops in Belarus.

 

[marc]

At this point, I'm wondering if Russia is worried about rumors of the Salvation Army coming to aid Ukraine

 

[Jayjay]

Why? They block all of the roads and leave the fields wide open. Perhaps it's all they can do. The only weapon of war Russia seems to possess in any great quantity still is the S-300. Perhaps there just isn't enough military equipment to go around and Russia cannot produce enough to supply their armed forces adequately to do anything other than block the roads.

I don't think it gets nearly as wet and muddy here in the Kherson region so flanking these fortifications through the fields should not be an issue. Or Russia is trying to entice Ukraine to keep more troops in the south contemplating river crossings just to keep them spread out as they did with putting Russian troops in Belarus.

If you look at the pictures of fields from the other frontlines, they're littered with craters from artillery strikes. Lack of cover means you will be spotted, and Russian artillery will rain shells on you until you're dead.

But that's irrelevant anyway because Ukraine cannot cross the river. I think Russia is playing it safe and building fortifications everywhere, but it's not like Ukraine can get tanks across the Dnipro to begin with.

 

[steve_bank]

In the book I read on the Battle Of Stalingrad there was a picture othe body of a German soldier frozen in mud being driven over by a truck.

 

[bilby]

Why? They block all of the roads and leave the fields wide open. Perhaps it's all they can do.

It's what you do when you are terrified of local irregular saboteurs. The US did something similar in Vietnam - they controlled the roads, but knew that any patrol that went off the highway would need to be a significant force, as anything smaller than a company strength unit would likely never come back.

The gaps between the roads are covered by aerial surveillance and any enemy moving in those gaps is dealt with by aerial bombardment. In theory.

But aerial surveillance demands limited tree cover and an enemy with poor camouflage capabilities; And when the enemy looks like the civilian population, the task is basically impossible.