How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Patooka]

Vladimir Putin: 2022 Loser of the Year

Russian leader Vladimir Putin is the biggest loser of 2022. His disastrous decision to invade Ukraine has left Russia internationally isolated and shattered the country's reputation as a military superpower.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

Ouch. The title is obviously clickbait, but they lay out their arguments surprisingly well.

 

[laughing dog]

Russia Sends Warning to U.S. Over Patriot Missile Defense Systems

More of the same from Russia, all talk, no actual response. These unending "threats" are only meant to keep Ukraine's supporters and democratic nations generally on their heels, on the defensive, afraid. It's classic Russian Hitler, classic KGB.

This is simply a tacit admission of failure on the part of Russia.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Is Vladimir Putin seriously sick?

I know, it's the Asia Times but it's always nice to read about.

 

[Jayjay]

Is Vladimir Putin seriously sick?

I know, it's the Asia Times but it's always nice to read about.

Is he breathing? If so, then he's not sick enough.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Is Vladimir Putin seriously sick?

I know, it's the Asia Times but it's always nice to read about.

The way that article ends is pretty f*cked up. Ala Henry Kissinger, we need Putin to remain in power or there will be a power vacuum that is even more dangerous. Please! I mean, tell that to the Ukrainians. Would Kissinger be saying that if he were living in the cold without water and in a bomb shelter with the buildings around him flattened?

 

[Patooka]

Is Vladimir Putin seriously sick?

I know, it's the Asia Times but it's always nice to read about.

The way that article ends is pretty f*cked up. Ala Henry Kissinger, we need Putin to remain in power or there will be a power vacuum that is even more dangerous. Please! I mean, tell that to the Ukrainians. Would Kissinger be saying that if he were living in the cold without water and in a bomb shelter with the buildings around him flattened?

And this is why I'm an atheist. Not because I disagree with with anything Moogly said ( because I do agree). But because a) Kissinger is still alive and b) some idiots still think we should listen to him is proof positive of the absence of a wise and benevolent god.

In other words, it's quite easy to make the argument that Putin is so vile a power vacuum is much more preferable to keeping him in charge.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Is Vladimir Putin seriously sick?

I know, it's the Asia Times but it's always nice to read about.

The way that article ends is pretty f*cked up. Ala Henry Kissinger, we need Putin to remain in power or there will be a power vacuum that is even more dangerous. Please! I mean, tell that to the Ukrainians. Would Kissinger be saying that if he were living in the cold without water and in a bomb shelter with the buildings around him flattened?

Yes. While I do not agree with Kissinger at all, the collapse of Russia as we know it is certainly something to consider. If the US sticks by Ukraine and I have every reason to think we will, Russia cannot win this war. We can keep feeding Ukraine assistance indefinitely. I doubt even the Republicans will slow things up. They'll claim on the news shows they are keeping a check on where the money is going but that's it. What we are spending on Ukraine is nothing in comparison to our overall defense budget. It's highly doubtful Putin will survive politically or literally. And then we would have a possible unstable Russia with a lot of nukes. What would become of them?

The preferred outcome for some is a Russia rendered impotent by the war. I disagree. For all its propensity to violence, Russia has made decisive contributions to the global equilibrium and to the balance of power for over half a millennium. Its historical role should not be degraded. Russia’s military setbacks have not eliminated its global nuclear reach, enabling it to threaten escalation in Ukraine. Even if this capability is diminished, the dissolution of Russia or destroying its ability for strategic policy could turn its territory encompassing 11 time zones into a contested vacuum. Its competing societies might decide to settle their disputes by violence. Other countries might seek to expand their claims by force. All these dangers would be compounded by the presence of thousands of nuclear weapons which make Russia one of the world’s two largest nuclear powers.

The rest of the essay is a history lesson.

How to avoid another world war, HK

 

[Jayjay]

Is Vladimir Putin seriously sick?

I know, it's the Asia Times but it's always nice to read about.

The way that article ends is pretty f*cked up. Ala Henry Kissinger, we need Putin to remain in power or there will be a power vacuum that is even more dangerous. Please! I mean, tell that to the Ukrainians. Would Kissinger be saying that if he were living in the cold without water and in a bomb shelter with the buildings around him flattened?

Yes. While I do not agree with Kissinger at all, the collapse of Russia as we know it is certainly something to consider. If the US sticks by Ukraine and I have every reason to think we will, Russia cannot win this war. We can keep feeding Ukraine assistance indefinitely. I doubt even the Republicans will slow things up. They'll claim on the news shows they are keeping a check on where the money is going but that's it. What we are spending on Ukraine is nothing in comparison to our overall defense budget. It's highly doubtful Putin will survive politically or literally. And then we would have a possible unstable Russia with a lot of nukes. What would become of them?

The thing is that current level of assistance is not enough to stop the war, even if it continues indefinitely (which I doubt). Ukraine needs more help if it wants to regain its territory: longer-range missiles, training, UAVs and better counter-battery tactics. And after the war, it'll needc a Marshall plan type of economic support coupled with an anti-corruption program and better governance. Ukraine's political system is, while democratic, a bit too centralized around the president. It's a long road with multiple possible points of failure.

Ukraine isn't making any progress, and is unlikely to do so anytime soon if ever, given that Russia has had time to fortify its positions. In next couple of weeks or month at most, Russia might be able to take Soledar and Bakhmut. I think Putin's goal now is to just keep on grinding until the west gets tired of throwing money at Ukraine.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Is Vladimir Putin seriously sick?

I know, it's the Asia Times but it's always nice to read about.

The way that article ends is pretty f*cked up. Ala Henry Kissinger, we need Putin to remain in power or there will be a power vacuum that is even more dangerous. Please! I mean, tell that to the Ukrainians. Would Kissinger be saying that if he were living in the cold without water and in a bomb shelter with the buildings around him flattened?

Yes. While I do not agree with Kissinger at all, the collapse of Russia as we know it is certainly something to consider. If the US sticks by Ukraine and I have every reason to think we will, Russia cannot win this war. We can keep feeding Ukraine assistance indefinitely. I doubt even the Republicans will slow things up. They'll claim on the news shows they are keeping a check on where the money is going but that's it. What we are spending on Ukraine is nothing in comparison to our overall defense budget. It's highly doubtful Putin will survive politically or literally. And then we would have a possible unstable Russia with a lot of nukes. What would become of them?

The thing is that current level of assistance is not enough to stop the war, even if it continues indefinitely (which I doubt). Ukraine needs more help if it wants to regain its territory: longer-range missiles, training, UAVs and better counter-battery tactics. And after the war, it'll needc a Marshall plan type of economic support coupled with an anti-corruption program and better governance. Ukraine's political system is, while democratic, a bit too centralized around the president. It's a long road with multiple possible points of failure.

Ukraine isn't making any progress, and is unlikely to do so anytime soon if ever, given that Russia has had time to fortify its positions. In next couple of weeks or month at most, Russia might be able to take Soledar and Bakhmut. I think Putin's goal now is to just keep on grinding until the west gets tired of throwing money at Ukraine.

I mostly agree. I do not think the US will tire of throwing money at Ukraine. Next year’s defense budget is somewhere in the neighborhood of $850 billion. We’ve spent $20-30 billion on Ukraine so far, I believe. I wonder, how much of the US annual defense budget is geared toward thwarting Russia. With this in mind, what the US is spending on Ukraine may actually be an investment if Russia is set back a decade both militarily and economically.

I think this current stalemate, if it is a stalemate and not preparation for a Ukrainian counteroffensive, might be a combination of Biden’s timidity and the US wanting to keep armament stocks at certain levels.

Interesting note: Patriot system maintenance school is 53 weeks. After attempting to instruct US Army personnel in C-RAM and finding their basic electronic/radar training just wasn’t up to snuff to handle the material, I was surprised to read how lengthy Patriot school was. I’d like to see the syllabus. I wonder if it covers more of the basics because the guys the army sent us to teach weren’t prepared to handle 53 weeks of any classroom instruction.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Interesting note: Patriot system maintenance school is 53 weeks. After attempting to instruct US Army personnel in C-RAM and finding their basic electronic/radar training just wasn’t up to snuff to handle the material, I was surprised to read how lengthy Patriot school was. I’d like to see the syllabus. I wonder if it covers more of the basics because the guys the army sent us to teach weren’t prepared to handle 53 weeks of any classroom instruction.

That is an unbelievably long time. Thinking back of my military days, advanced MOS training while longer than basic was never that long. This must be for the technical types, not the operators.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Interesting note: Patriot system maintenance school is 53 weeks. After attempting to instruct US Army personnel in C-RAM and finding their basic electronic/radar training just wasn’t up to snuff to handle the material, I was surprised to read how lengthy Patriot school was. I’d like to see the syllabus. I wonder if it covers more of the basics because the guys the army sent us to teach weren’t prepared to handle 53 weeks of any classroom instruction.

That is an unbelievably long time. Thinking back of my military days, advanced MOS training while longer than basic was never that long. This must be for the technical types, not the operators.

It is. It's the maintenance course. The operator's is 20 weeks. But still. I don't know of any navy weapon system school that comes close. My CIWS op/maint was 26 weeks. Navy basic electronics & radar is 52 weeks (that all fire control and electronics techs attend).
This army course must include the basics and perhaps covers the various iterations of the system, old and new.

Reports indicate that the Patriot unit might arrive in February. That is fast. Training courses for Patriot operators and maintainers normally take many months. The PATRIOT system repairer course, for example, takes 53 weeks. Others are not quite so lengthy. The fire control operator course is 20 weeks. The launch system operator course is 13 weeks. Ukraine could save time by sending trained air defenders—for example, troops trained on the S-300 system, which Ukraine has operated for many years. Nevertheless, there is a lot of learning to do before Ukraine will have a functioning Patriot system on the ground. It is possible that the Ukrainians have already begun to train on Patriot in anticipation of a possible future transfer.

Patriot to Ukraine: What Does It Mean?

 

[Harry Bosch]

Interesting note: Patriot system maintenance school is 53 weeks. After attempting to instruct US Army personnel in C-RAM and finding their basic electronic/radar training just wasn’t up to snuff to handle the material, I was surprised to read how lengthy Patriot school was. I’d like to see the syllabus. I wonder if it covers more of the basics because the guys the army sent us to teach weren’t prepared to handle 53 weeks of any classroom instruction.

That is an unbelievably long time. Thinking back of my military days, advanced MOS training while longer than basic was never that long. This must be for the technical types, not the operators.

It is. It's the maintenance course. The operator's is 20 weeks. But still. I don't know of any navy weapon system school that comes close. My CIWS op/maint was 26 weeks. Navy basic electronics & radar is 52 weeks (that all fire control and electronics techs attend).
This army course must include the basics and perhaps covers the various iterations of the system, old and new.

Reports indicate that the Patriot unit might arrive in February. That is fast. Training courses for Patriot operators and maintainers normally take many months. The PATRIOT system repairer course, for example, takes 53 weeks. Others are not quite so lengthy. The fire control operator course is 20 weeks. The launch system operator course is 13 weeks. Ukraine could save time by sending trained air defenders—for example, troops trained on the S-300 system, which Ukraine has operated for many years. Nevertheless, there is a lot of learning to do before Ukraine will have a functioning Patriot system on the ground. It is possible that the Ukrainians have already begun to train on Patriot in anticipation of a possible future transfer.

Patriot to Ukraine: What Does It Mean?

The Russians are unbelievable. They are complaining bitterly about America providing defensive weapons to Ukraine. The US is trying to limit civilian deaths and infrastructure damage in Ukraine. Putler desires the opposite. It's quite shocking that Ukraine wants to ally with the west!!

 

[bilby]

I wonder, how much of the US annual defense budget is geared toward thwarting Russia. With this in mind, what the US is spending on Ukraine may actually be an investment if Russia is set back a decade both militarily and economically.

Just getting to test US systems and tactics against real Russian opposition in real combat conditions is well worth the investment.

 

[Rhea]

Just getting to test US systems and tactics against real Russian opposition in real combat conditions is well worth the investment.

Likely a part of why Russia objects so vociferously to our involvement.

 

[SLD]

Nuclear power training is twelve months. Six of classroom and six at prototype and then followed by 12 weeks sun school. Then you are under the tutelage of experienced operators often for two years before you become fully qualified to run a submarine completely.

But I digress. The issue now is the pending Russian offensive that will likely be launched this winter. Russia has always launched winter offensives - from Moscow in 1941 to Stalingrad a year later. They will try again in January likely.

They believe that they have fixed their problems from last year and from the earlier mobilization in September. They feel that their retreat from Kherson was orderly and showed that they can fight this war. They are conducting small scale offensives in Donbas and setting the stage for the offensive by simply bombing Ukraine back to the Stone Age for now.

Thus the West must step up. $30 billion won’t do it. They need extensive armor and artillery replacements. The west should give it tinted in spades. A Russian defeat will more than pay for the expense and preserve European security for decades to come. It might even bring Russia out of the dark ages it has fallen into. They could come out of this as a prosperous and peaceful country just as Germany did from the wreckage of Hitler.

I read one article arguing that we can’t deplete our artillery and armor stocks much further without endangering our own security. Bullshit. Who the fuck else are we going to need armor and artillery against? The Chinese? Fuck no. We won’t get in any land war with them. Keep it naval and then sue for peace. Defeating Russia is our top national security project. It will pay for itself.

 

[bilby]

Who the fuck else are we going to need armor and artillery against?

I would be careful if I were you. Canada invaded the USA only 210 years ago, and they have massed ninety percent of their population within 100 miles of the border.

I suspect they're up to something...

 

[Harry Bosch]

Who the fuck else are we going to need armor and artillery against?

I would be careful if I were you. Canada invaded the USA only 210 years ago, and they have massed ninety percent of their population within 100 miles of the border.

I suspect they're up to something...

We have no direct conventional threat. However if China were to invade Taiwan, any product requiring computer chips would be cut off. We’d go into a depression the next day.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Just getting to test US systems and tactics against real Russian opposition in real combat conditions is well worth the investment.

Likely a part of why Russia objects so vociferously to our involvement.

Dang, I can’t find that picture of the worlds smallest violin!

 

[crazyfingers]

Who the fuck else are we going to need armor and artillery against?

I would be careful if I were you. Canada invaded the USA only 210 years ago, and they have massed ninety percent of their population within 100 miles of the border.

I suspect they're up to something...

Ever watch the movie Canadian Bacon?

 

[Jayjay]

In Ukraine, I saw the greatest threat to the Russian world isn’t the west – it’s Putin | Timothy Garton Ash

The Kremlin’s imperial war has made its own culture a common enemy for people across its former empire, says Guardian columnist Timothy Garton Ash

www.theguardian.com

Tetiana, a refugee from the ruthlessly bombed and destroyed city of Mariupol, had suffered without heat, light or water in a cellar under constant bombardment, seen her best friend killed by a Russian missile, and then had a traumatic odyssey of escape. Tetiana not merely speaks much better Russian than Ukrainian; her mother is actually from Russia, as are her parents-in-law. The Russian president would consider her a Russian. So I asked her for her message to Putin. She replied that she would like to kill him.

Wherever I turned, in every conversation, there was a total rejection not just of the Russian dictator, not merely of the Russian Federation as a state, but of everything and almost everyone Russian. Polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows that some 80% of Ukrainians had a positive attitude to Russia in 2013; by May 2022, the figure was just 2%.

No surprise there: the plan of making friends with Ukraine by bombing them to the ground isn't working.