How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[DrZoidberg]

That's an interesting story, given the difficulties that Russians have in travel to Western Europe these days. It's not impossible, but very difficult to get a visa, even if you can go through countries like Turkey. I doubt that her claim about not being affected by the war is realistic, given the stories we have from other Russians about the difficulties involved in foreign travel.

Closing Doors: How Europe Is Restricting Russians From Traveling​

And what is her experience with western democracy? When has she lived outside the POW wire to know what freedom is? Western democracies never had to build walls to keep their citizens from escaping. My opinion is she doesn't know her ass from a hole in the ground even though she thinks she does. Cling to the abusive guardian. Sure, I'd do the same thing if that was the best option, game theory and all that.

Well... her boyfriend since four years is Swedish. They're ideologically quite different. Her boyfriend is my best friend. I can assure you he's quite liberal. His political opinions are typically Swedish. He's cool with "his woman" having her own opinions. He's now very wealthy. But he started out from humble beginnings. Also very intelligent, well read and curious.

She's been in democratic countries many times. She likes to travel and is curious about other cultures and countries.

 

[Jayjay]

As long as any EU country allows Russians to enter, Russians can first travel to that country, and then travel anywhere inside EU freely. Finland will never close the border to Russia. Loads of Finns have companies in Russia. And vice versa. The two country are as economically integrated as it's possible to be. Sealing that border tight will have a devastating impact on the Finnish economy.

Well that's bullshit. Thanks to the sanctions, there is very little business travel. It's mostly people with dual citizenship, family, or property in both countries. But in terms of economy keeping the border open wouldn't hurt that much. Certainly it wouldn't be any more "devastating" than what's already happened since Feb 2022.

But travel-wise, whether she came through Finland or some other country doesn't really matter, because if she has a visa, then she can enter the EU. It's just that there aren't any direct flights AFAIK.

 

[Copernicus]

As long as any EU country allows Russians to enter, Russians can first travel to that country, and then travel anywhere inside EU freely. Finland will never close the border to Russia. Loads of Finns have companies in Russia. And vice versa. The two country are as economically integrated as it's possible to be. Sealing that border tight will have a devastating impact on the Finnish economy.

Well that's bullshit. Thanks to the sanctions, there is very little business travel. It's mostly people with dual citizenship, family, or property in both countries. But in terms of economy keeping the border open wouldn't hurt that much. Certainly it wouldn't be any more "devastating" than what's already happened since Feb 2022.

But travel-wise, whether she came through Finland or some other country doesn't really matter, because if she has a visa, then she can enter the EU. It's just that there aren't any direct flights AFAIK.

If she has a Schengen visa to enter Finland, she can take an indirect flight, which is a minor inconvenience. That type of visa would allow here to go anywhere in the Schengen countries. In fact, most air travel these days is based on a hub and spoke system, where the need to change planes is more common than not. It's just that Finland is so close that direct flights were a better option in the past. From what I read, Istanbul is the place that most Russians go through. Some Schengen countries will issue visas for Russians more easily than others. Finland may be one of those countries. If so, it might be out of step with the majority, as Russians nowadays have to show a special need for such a visa in most countries. There are more bureaucratic barriers in place.

 

[Copernicus]

Oleg Deripaska must be looking for a window to jump out of.

Russia may run out of money in 2024, says oligarch​

A close friend has a Russian girlfriend. She lives in Moscow and comes to visit. I picked her brains on this. I should start by saying that she's pretty conservative and has always liked Putin, and still does.

Anyway... she says that life in Moscow continues like normal. She's personally not been affected by the war the least bit. She travels like normal, as she always had. She's a well educated middle class Jew with high status in Russia and plenty of international friends and connections. She's well read and curious. So she's not sheeple. She assumes all politicians are lying and that none can be trusted, in any country. She doesn't think Putin is any worse than any other national leader. Including Zelensky. She thinks the west and western media has a negative narrative spin on any power (ie powerful nation) outside their control. So western critique of Putin's abuses of power slides off her like water on tefflon.

Yes, it's datapoint of one (or two, with Barbos) on the Russian perspective.

How is she not one of Putin's sheeple? If she protested the war she'd be in prison or dead or maybe given a rifle. So she keeps her mouth shut, a good survival strategy when living in a terrorist state.

That's an interesting story, given the difficulties that Russians have in travel to Western Europe these days. It's not impossible, but very difficult to get a visa, even if you can go through countries like Turkey. I doubt that her claim about not being affected by the war is realistic, given the stories we have from other Russians about the difficulties involved in foreign travel.

Closing Doors: How Europe Is Restricting Russians From Traveling​

As long as any EU country allows Russians to enter, Russians can first travel to that country, and then travel anywhere inside EU freely. Finland will never close the border to Russia. Loads of Finns have companies in Russia. And vice versa. The two country are as economically integrated as it's possible to be. Sealing that border tight will have a devastating impact on the Finnish economy.

Jayjay has addressed this above. According to your description of her, she was able to get around the barriers that ordinary Russians face when they seek to travel. I still do not believe that claim that she has not been the slightest bit inconvenienced by sanctions, and it wouldn't surprise me that a pro-Putin Russian would say such a thing. That's why it is repeated so very often by the Russian propaganda machine--to hang noodles on people's ears.

The European sanctions against Russia are partly just hot air rhetoric that sound good in propaganda, but so full of loopholes they become ineffective.

They don't have to be perfect to do a lot of damage. Nobody is claiming that the sanctions aren't working in the sense that they have devastated Russia's economy. Oleg Deripaska probably knows a lot more about the Russian economy than your friend's girlfriend does, and he is admitting it in public, which is a very risky thing for even a powerful oligarch to do in Russia these days. Your girlfriend risked nothing by defending Putin's war to a bunch of Western liberals in Sweden.

If you're a working class Russian then yes, you can't travel freely. But then again, you wouldn't have been able to afford to anyway. So it's a moot point.

Being able to afford to travel to Europe from Russia has always been an economic burden, so I think that it's actually your point that is moot. What you are ignoring is that far fewer Russians can travel now, not only because of the bureaucratic roadblocks and closed borders, but because it is far more expensive than it was in the past. The issue here is not what economic class you happen to fall into.

 

[bilby]

You don't need to fly to Finland from Russia. You can get a bus to Tallinn (Estonia) from St Petersburg*, (or just drive there) and from Tallinn it's a two hour crossing by ferry to Helsinki.

Assuming you can get a visa to enter Estonia, of course.




*It's a seven and a half hour bus ride, so you would need to either really, really want to get to Finland, or really like buses, but it's a direct service, with no changes. Catch the 960 from the bus station at Obvodniy Canal Embankment. Ask for Yuri.

 

[Copernicus]

You don't need to fly to Finland from Russia. You can get a bus to Tallinn (Estonia) from St Petersburg*, (or just drive there) and from Tallinn it's a two hour crossing by ferry to Helsinki.

Assuming you can get a visa to enter Estonia, of course.


*It's a seven and a half hour bus ride, so you would need to either really, really want to get to Finland, or really like buses, but it's a direct service, with no changes. Catch the 960 from the bus station at Obvodniy Canal Embankment. Ask for Yuri.

Sounds easy. Here's all it takes to get a visa into Estonia:

Visas for Russian citizens​

From 19.09.2022 entry to Estonia is forbidden to all short-term Schengen visa holding Russian citizens whose aim is tourism, sports, culture, visiting friends or family regardless of their country of destination or visa issuing country. The same restriction are in force also in Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

The restriction does not apply to all Russian citizens. Crossing the state border will continue to be possible

• for Russian nationals visiting direct ascendants and descendants (children, grandchildren, parents, grandparents); a spouse, a person with whom one shares minor children. The person that is visited has to be the citizen or a holder of a long term residence permit of Estonia or some other European Union country, living in Estonia. It is also allowed to enter the country if the Russian citizen is travelling with a person that is visited who is compliant with the mentioned requirements. NB! It is not possible to visit a relative, spouse or person with whom you share minor children if that person is living in Estonia based on a temporary residence permit.

If a Russian citizen wishes to enter Estonia to visit a citizen or a holder of a long-term residence permit of Estonia or another European Union country living in Estonia, or is travelling with them, but the person that is visited or a fellow traveller of the Russian citizen is not their ascending or descending relative (child, grandchild, parent, grandparent), spouse or the parent of a shared minor child then the Russian citizen cannot enter Estonia.

• diplomats;
• Russian nationals with a short-stay visa and registered employment in Estonia or with a student visitor visa;
• people directly employed in the international transport of goods and passengers.

Exceptional entry is also allowed on humanitarian grounds and for dissidents. The entry restriction does not apply to border crossers with a long-term (type D) visa.

 

[Copernicus]

Here is the information on how Russians can get visas into Finland:

Restrictions on the entry of Russian citizens​

In accordance with a government resolution, the entry of Russian citizens will be restricted. This applies to entry with a visa in Finland and transit to Schengen area, where the purpose of the stay is a short tourist’s journey.

Those who have a residence permit in Finland, in an EU member state, in an European Economic Area member state or in Switzerland, or have a long-stay visa to a Schengen country (type D visa), can still arrive in Finland.

On this page are all the special groups whose entry into the country will not generally be restricted.

Decisions on permitting entry will always be made in connection with border checks. Refusal of entry may lead to revocation of a visa. The Finnish Border Guard does not grant advance permits for entry to Finland.

What follows that text is a list of 10 categories of exceptions, and the border guard usually makes the decision. So bribery may be an option.

 

[Tigers!]

*It's a seven and a half hour bus ride, so you would need to either really, really want to get to Finland, or really like buses, but it's a direct service, with no changes. Catch the 960 from the bus station at Obvodniy Canal Embankment. Ask for Yuri.

I did ask for Yuri. He wants to know where is his money Bilby?

 

[Jayjay]

Here is the information on how Russians can get visas into Finland:

Restrictions on the entry of Russian citizens​

In accordance with a government resolution, the entry of Russian citizens will be restricted. This applies to entry with a visa in Finland and transit to Schengen area, where the purpose of the stay is a short tourist’s journey.

Those who have a residence permit in Finland, in an EU member state, in an European Economic Area member state or in Switzerland, or have a long-stay visa to a Schengen country (type D visa), can still arrive in Finland.

On this page are all the special groups whose entry into the country will not generally be restricted.

Decisions on permitting entry will always be made in connection with border checks. Refusal of entry may lead to revocation of a visa. The Finnish Border Guard does not grant advance permits for entry to Finland.

What follows that text is a list of 10 categories of exceptions, and the border guard usually makes the decision. So bribery may be an option.

No, it's not.

If anything, the border guards on Finnish side are sticklers for rules. Nobody's getting turned back unless there is a legal reason and paper trail to prove it. But in practice, there aren't that many people qualified to use this route that it would be much different than the Baltic countries. The rules are more or less the same across all Schengen countries, even if application might be a little bit more lenient in Finland.

 

[DrZoidberg]

As long as any EU country allows Russians to enter, Russians can first travel to that country, and then travel anywhere inside EU freely. Finland will never close the border to Russia. Loads of Finns have companies in Russia. And vice versa. The two country are as economically integrated as it's possible to be. Sealing that border tight will have a devastating impact on the Finnish economy.

Well that's bullshit. Thanks to the sanctions, there is very little business travel. It's mostly people with dual citizenship, family, or property in both countries. But in terms of economy keeping the border open wouldn't hurt that much. Certainly it wouldn't be any more "devastating" than what's already happened since Feb 2022.

But travel-wise, whether she came through Finland or some other country doesn't really matter, because if she has a visa, then she can enter the EU. It's just that there aren't any direct flights AFAIK.

If she has a Schengen visa to enter Finland, she can take an indirect flight, which is a minor inconvenience. That type of visa would allow here to go anywhere in the Schengen countries. In fact, most air travel these days is based on a hub and spoke system, where the need to change planes is more common than not. It's just that Finland is so close that direct flights were a better option in the past. From what I read, Istanbul is the place that most Russians go through. Some Schengen countries will issue visas for Russians more easily than others. Finland may be one of those countries. If so, it might be out of step with the majority, as Russians nowadays have to show a special need for such a visa in most countries. There are more bureaucratic barriers in place.

When I asked her she said it was not a problem. They've been travelling, on romantic getaways, to several places all over Europeall year. So all evidence suggests she's telling the truth. Right after the invasion they met in Finland precisely because they were worried it would be hard to travel for her. But on that trip she learned that it wasn't.

 

[Copernicus]

When I asked her she said it was not a problem. They've been travelling, on romantic getaways, to several places all over Europeall year. So all evidence suggests she's telling the truth. Right after the invasion they met in Finland precisely because they were worried it would be hard to travel for her. But on that trip she learned that it wasn't.

So she did not try to leave after the heaviest restrictions against travel fell into place, but she saw them coming. That makes more sense. From your story above, I jumped to the wrong conclusion that she had recently arrived from Russia, although you didn't say when she had arrived or how long she had been outside of Russia. If she were living in Russia today, she might be singing a different tune. Saying that the sanctions weren't affecting her was bravado. In fact, she knew what was happening and got out ahead of the game. She expects to go back, so I imagine she is not going to say anything to strangers that would jeopardize her safety after this war is over. I knew a few Soviet visitors to the US over the years, and that is how they behaved. They would be more open about their feelings in one-on-one conversations with me, but not when strangers were present. That was also true in my 1965 visit to the SU on a language study tour. In private conversations, even young Komsomol members would admit things. In correspondence or conversations where strangers were present, they said nothing about their more "liberal" feelings.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

In Putin's Russia, his power base is in the wider Moscow metropolitan area and St. Petersberg. Putin takes great care to try to not alarm his base. Many of the hapless conscripts come from the areas outside of Moscow. Putin tries to shield the Moscow area from the brunt of sanctions. How long Putin and his Siloviks can keep this up remains to be seen.

 

[DrZoidberg]

When I asked her she said it was not a problem. They've been travelling, on romantic getaways, to several places all over Europeall year. So all evidence suggests she's telling the truth. Right after the invasion they met in Finland precisely because they were worried it would be hard to travel for her. But on that trip she learned that it wasn't.

So she did not try to leave after the heaviest restrictions against travel fell into place, but she saw them coming. That makes more sense. From your story above, I jumped to the wrong conclusion that she had recently arrived from Russia, although you didn't say when she had arrived or how long she had been outside of Russia. If she were living in Russia today, she might be singing a different tune. Saying that the sanctions weren't affecting her was bravado. In fact, she knew what was happening and got out ahead of the game. She expects to go back, so I imagine she is not going to say anything to strangers that would jeopardize her safety after this war is over. I knew a few Soviet visitors to the US over the years, and that is how they behaved. They would be more open about their feelings in one-on-one conversations with me, but not when strangers were present. That was also true in my 1965 visit to the SU on a language study tour. In private conversations, even young Komsomol members would admit things. In correspondence or conversations where strangers were present, they said nothing about their more "liberal" feelings.

Her last visit was Stockholm the second week of February.

That could be. But if that's the situation she certainly has my friend fooled. He thinks these are her real opinions. Not that he cares that much. He loves her for other things than her ideological convictions. If the ideology of his partner was important to him, he wouldn't be dating her at all.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Biden calls Ukarine existential fr the western alliance and western liberal democracy. In the long term I gnerally agree.

But we are only giving them enough for a stalemate but not enough for a decisive win. If it goes pn another year Ukrainian culture will be destroyed. They will have nothing left.

The people in this region have survived so much worse.

 

[ZiprHead]

Ukrainian forces completely surrounded.

 

[Patooka]

Ukrainian forces completely surrounded.

Instantly thinking of this song.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukrainian forces completely surrounded.

I take no joy in suffering of animals.

 

[lpetrich]

Poulet volant on Twitter: "Guerre d'Ukraine | 08/03/23 Secteurs :
BakhmutU230308-1843
Historique des cartes
@Michel_Goya @egea_blog @jdomerchet @duprat_alain #UkraineRussianWar #GuerreEnUkraine (pix link)" / Twitter -- Bakhmut is still accessible from the rest of Ukraine, by a corridor as wide as that town itself. But there are Russians on both sides of that corridor.

Ukrainian forces still trying to hold Bakhmut despite heavy casualties | Ukraine | The Guardian - "Soldiers and analysts suggest defending city has become more of a political than practical issue, as Russian push continues"

Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, has put a figure on that logic, saying Ukrainian forces have lost one soldier for every seven Russians in Bakhmut.

US White House officials reported on February 17 that the Wagner Group alone, which has predominantly fought in the Bakhmut area, has suffered 30,000 casualties, including about 9,000 fatalities, in one year of war.

Russia takes east Bakhmut as Ukraine builds up forces | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera - "As war reaches 54th week, analysts say Ukraine is bleeding Russia of men and ammunition in eastern city as it prepares to counterstrike elsewhere."

Russia-Ukraine War: Russia launches massive attack on Ukrainian cities with hypersonic missiles! Zelenskyy’s army trying to hold Bakhmut – Top Updates

 

[lpetrich]

Russia-Ukraine war: The Battle of Bakhmut has come at immense cost to both sides
Starting off with the Battle of Verdun in the Great War, as World War I was known before World War II. It had 700,000 casualties with neither France nor Germany improving its position very much.

But a similar battle seems to be happening: the Battle of Bakhmut.

Months of Russian artillery barrages and human wave attacks have gradually gained territory around the city. Despite the Ukrainian preparations, it is part of war’s brutal calculus that if the enemy is willing to sacrifice everything for an objective – and your side isn’t – they will eventually prevail.

Therefore, the Russians, using their Wagner mercenaries, pardoned convicts, recently mobilised troops and a smattering of their more elite units, may force a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut soon. While Putin will laud this as a Russian victory, the reality is that his battered troops have captured only rubble. Bakhmut, even before it was destroyed, was of limited strategic importance and unworthy of such investment in firepower and lives.

This battle has come at a cost to the Ukrainians as well, but they have made the Russians suffer. So while the Ukrainians fight on, at some point they may decide they have eked all they can in their blooding of the Russians, and conduct a fighting withdrawal north-east to the better defended Kramatorsk.

 

[lpetrich]

Kyiv and Moscow Are Fighting Two Different Wars | Foreign Affairs

Over the course of the war in Ukraine, the strategies of Russia and Ukraine have increasingly diverged. At first, Russia sought to catch Ukraine by surprise using a modern army engaged in some fast-moving maneuvers that would yield a rapid and decisive victory. But over time, its army has been seriously degraded, and it has increasingly been relying on artillery barrages and mass infantry assaults to achieve battlefield breakthroughs while stepping up its attacks on Ukrainian cities. In the areas its forces are occupying, it is seeking to impose “Russification” and has dealt harshly with those suspected of spying and sabotage, or simple dissent.

Ukraine has been more innovative in its tactics and more disciplined in their execution. Aided by a growing supply of Western weapons and an agile command, it has managed to recover some of the areas occupied by Russian forces. But it has also been fighting on its own territory and unable to reach far into Russia. So while Ukraine has limited itself to targeting Russia’s military, Russia is targeting Ukraine as a whole: its armed forces, its infrastructure, and its people.

Then discussing two main models of war: classic and total.

The classic way of warfare, which dominated military thought before World War I, was all about battles. Strategy focused on getting an army in a position to fight; tactics concerned the fighting itself. Victory was decided by which army occupied the battlefield, the number of enemy soldiers killed or captured, and the amount of equipment destroyed. In this way, battles determined the outcome of wars. This approach was bolstered by laws of war that covered the treatment of prisoners and noncombatants and assumed that the defeated enemy would accept the verdict of battle.

That was an outcome of the difficulty of penetrating deep within one's opponent's territory. General Sherman's army had to conquer Atlanta before it could destroy that city. But even then, the North also waged war on the South's ability to wage war by blockading its ports and cutting off Texas from the rest of the South by conquering the Mississippi River. The North's generals called this the "anaconda strategy", after a kind of snake that kills its prey by constricting it.

Total war emerged during WWI as warplane pilots demonstrated their ability to penetrate deep within their opponents' territory. So one could bomb their opponents' cities and attack their ability to wage war by bombing weapon factories, factories for making guns and ammo and warships and warplanes. Civilians became legitimate targets because they could be drafted into the armed forces, and because they could make weapons.

But Western strategists came to doubt the value of doing that kind of war.

First, the logic of total war led to nuclear catastrophe. If that was to be avoided, a way had to be found to keep wars limited.

I remember in the 1980's some people talking about "prevailing". The only sensible thing was IMO how to avoid losing too badly. I also remember from then a Philadephia publication from then a discussion of what would likely be attacked in that city's area. It mentioned as a target the Marcus Hook oil refineries, some 16 mi / 26 km southwest from the center of that city and 9 mi / 14 km northeast from the center of Wilmington, Delaware. Looking back, all that's needed is to attack oil refineries, and most transport would grind to a halt.

U.S. Number of Operable Refineries as of January 1 (Number of Elements) - the US had 301 in 1980, 205 in 1990, and 130 last year.

With 10 nuclear bombs per refinery for redundancy, that means only 2,000 - 3,000 bombs are needed cripple the US's transport capabilities, and a similar number would do the same for Western Europe, and also for the Soviet Union. That is much less than what the two superpowers accumulated in the Cold War  List of states with nuclear weapons