How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

When it comes to dumb. Nobody tops Pootie. He started a war he is not winning. He has made Russia a failing pariah state. Russia's young best and brightest have left Russia. Immigrated to sane nations. The only thing Pootie has excelled at is being history's most successful thief. Russia is well on its way to being a failed third world state. How is Russia going to reverse this rot?

I think the problem is more meglomania than stupidity. He thought he could get away with it but he didn't realize how corrupted his system has become.

Megalomania and stupidity are not mutually exclusive. Putin knows exactly what corruption is, because he himself is personally corrupt. He got where he is by exploiting that system of corruption, and he hasn't exactly been a crusader for clean government while in office. Quite the opposite. If he didn't realize how corrupted his system had become, then he was at least very stupid on that score. More likely is that he didn't realize how the corruption would undermine the ability of his military to overwhelm Ukraine.

 

[crazyfingers]

When it comes to dumb. Nobody tops Pootie. He started a war he is not winning. He has made Russia a failing pariah state. Russia's young best and brightest have left Russia. Immigrated to sane nations. The only thing Pootie has excelled at is being history's most successful thief. Russia is well on its way to being a failed third world state. How is Russia going to reverse this rot?

I think the problem is more meglomania than stupidity. He thought he could get away with it but he didn't realize how corrupted his system has become.

I think that he also underestimated how united NATO would be. Perhaps he had hoped that Trump had managed to destroy NATOs resolve. Trump certainly tried.

 

[lpetrich]

Finland joins NATO in major blow to Russia over Ukraine war | AP News

Doubling the length of NATO's border with Russia, and I'm sure a major humiliation for Putinites and Russian nationalists.

“The era of nonalignment in our history has come to an end -– a new era begins,” President Sauli Niinistö said before his country’s blue-and-white flag was raised outside NATO headquarters. A short distance away, outside the security fence, a few dozen people wrapped in flags of their own chanted, “Ukraine needs NATO.”

However, Turkey and Hungary continue to hold up Sweden's application to the alliance.

As an illustration of the difference between Finland and Russia,
Finland prime minister ousted, conservatives win tight vote | AP News - Prime Minister Sanna Marin's party placed third, and is not likely to join a new governing coalition.

Finland has a single legislative chamber, the 200-seat Eduskunta, elected by proportional representation. How many seats each party got, with the number in the previous election in ()'s.
 2023 Finnish parliamentary election

• National Coalition (conservative) - 48 (38)
• Finns (nationalist, dislikes immigration) - 46 (39)
• Social Democrats (SM's party) - 43 (40)
• Center - 23 (31)
• Green - 13 (20)
• Left Alliance - 11 (16)
• Swedish People's Party - 9 (9)
• Christian Democrats - 5 (5)
• Liik - 1 (1)

A governing coalition requires a majority, at least 101 seats.

Another relatively young female leader is leaving office:

• New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern, an icon to many, to step down | AP News
• Reaction to Jacinda Ardern resigning as New Zealand leader | AP News
• Jacinda Ardern makes final appearance as New Zealand leader | AP News

From the final-appearance article,

Ardern also addressed the wide discussion that has been going on since her announcement about the vitriolic and misogynistic attacks on her on social media — something she has said did not contribute to her decision to step down.

“Whilst there has been a bit of commentary in the aftermath of my departure, I would hate for anyone to view my departure as a negative commentary on New Zealand,” Ardern said. “I have experienced such love, compassion, empathy and kindness when I’ve been in this job. That has been my predominant experience.”

The two Prime Ministers once met, and Jacinda Ardern fires back at suggestion she met with Sanna Marin because of age : NPR

 

[Elixir]

Long term, Russia has to think about the problem of a vigous and belligerent China. China has been proving to be very aggressive as demonstrated by border skirmishes with India and the Phillipines.

Yes, China will eat them alive, eventually. That should keep them both busy for a while. Russia will feed the Russian citizens to China, and China will get long term, severe indigestion.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

When it comes to dumb. Nobody tops Pootie. He started a war he is not winning. He has made Russia a failing pariah state. Russia's young best and brightest have left Russia. Immigrated to sane nations. The only thing Pootie has excelled at is being history's most successful thief. Russia is well on its way to being a failed third world state. How is Russia going to reverse this rot?

I think the problem is more meglomania than stupidity. He thought he could get away with it but he didn't realize how corrupted his system has become.

Megalomania and stupidity are not mutually exclusive. Putin knows exactly what corruption is, because he himself is personally corrupt. He got where he is by exploiting that system of corruption, and he hasn't exactly been a crusader for clean government while in office. Quite the opposite. If he didn't realize how corrupted his system had become, then he was at least very stupid on that score. More likely is that he didn't realize how the corruption would undermine the ability of his military to overwhelm Ukraine.

That's my thought--he didn't realize how rotten the army had become. It's not just him pocketing money, the same thing happens all the way down the line.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

When it comes to dumb. Nobody tops Pootie. He started a war he is not winning. He has made Russia a failing pariah state. Russia's young best and brightest have left Russia. Immigrated to sane nations. The only thing Pootie has excelled at is being history's most successful thief. Russia is well on its way to being a failed third world state. How is Russia going to reverse this rot?

I think the problem is more meglomania than stupidity. He thought he could get away with it but he didn't realize how corrupted his system has become.

I think that he also underestimated how united NATO would be. Perhaps he had hoped that Trump had managed to destroy NATOs resolve. Trump certainly tried.

I think he didn't care--if things went according to plan he would have occupied Ukraine before NATO organized any real response. At that point it's unlikely we would have gone in.

 

[Copernicus]

When it comes to dumb. Nobody tops Pootie. He started a war he is not winning. He has made Russia a failing pariah state. Russia's young best and brightest have left Russia. Immigrated to sane nations. The only thing Pootie has excelled at is being history's most successful thief. Russia is well on its way to being a failed third world state. How is Russia going to reverse this rot?

I think the problem is more meglomania than stupidity. He thought he could get away with it but he didn't realize how corrupted his system has become.

I think that he also underestimated how united NATO would be. Perhaps he had hoped that Trump had managed to destroy NATOs resolve. Trump certainly tried.

I think he didn't care--if things went according to plan he would have occupied Ukraine before NATO organized any real response. At that point it's unlikely we would have gone in.

That's how I remember it. Things went awry for Putin when his invasion force snaked its way down that highway to Kyiv, setting up a long line of ambushes waiting to happen. Of course, they forgot that there would be mud, if they left the road. However, Field Marshal Supreme Commander, Vladimir "The Great" Putin, was issuing the marching orders. Special assassination teams were sent in and got assassinated.

 

[Copernicus]

One of Putin's high-ranking FSO security officers managed to defect while in Kazakhstan in October, 2022. The AP is now reporting on the defection, so there is some new information on what he has revealed about Putin's life and daily routines. Basically, he is running like a scared rabbit from bunker to bunker, often putting out false reports of which bunker he is holed up in. He is in very good health and gets regular checkups. He doesn't use cell phones or the internet and has a special train that whisks him from location to location. Since the renewed invasion of Ukraine, he has become much more paranoid and in fear of his life.

See:

‘He’s a war criminal’: Elite Putin security officer defects​

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

When it comes to dumb. Nobody tops Pootie. He started a war he is not winning. He has made Russia a failing pariah state. Russia's young best and brightest have left Russia. Immigrated to sane nations. The only thing Pootie has excelled at is being history's most successful thief. Russia is well on its way to being a failed third world state. How is Russia going to reverse this rot?

I think the problem is more meglomania than stupidity. He thought he could get away with it but he didn't realize how corrupted his system has become.

Megalomania and stupidity are not mutually exclusive. Putin knows exactly what corruption is, because he himself is personally corrupt. He got where he is by exploiting that system of corruption, and he hasn't exactly been a crusader for clean government while in office. Quite the opposite. If he didn't realize how corrupted his system had become, then he was at least very stupid on that score. More likely is that he didn't realize how the corruption would undermine the ability of his military to overwhelm Ukraine.

Actually, there have been crackd I wns in Russia on some corruption. At least 60 defense ministers and 150 military suppliers have busted in recent years. In 2015, Putin mandated 1500 Armata 14 tanks were to be produced by 2020. Less than 24 were manufactored but without the promised high tech devices promised. Billions of rubles vanished mysteriously in foreign bank accounts. Pootie could overlook some corruption, but not when his military was gutted this way. The factory that was supposed to be made to create new Armata tanks had empty shell building made, but no equipment installed. Later, Pootie announced 2,000 Armatas were to be built. Well, no. Now with sanctions, cost of a war Pootie is not winning, and Russia about to exhaust the last of his cash reserves, fat chance of creating new tanks, IFVs or aircraft. Russia's vaunted SU-75, The Checkmate, has been in development for years but never got further than a wooden mockup. Oooooo, Scary! Russia squandered its military budget and has no way to easily or quickly recover.

 

[SLD]

Finland joins NATO in major blow to Russia over Ukraine war | AP News

Doubling the length of NATO's border with Russia, and I'm sure a major humiliation for Putinites and Russian nationalists.

“The era of nonalignment in our history has come to an end -– a new era begins,” President Sauli Niinistö said before his country’s blue-and-white flag was raised outside NATO headquarters. A short distance away, outside the security fence, a few dozen people wrapped in flags of their own chanted, “Ukraine needs NATO.”

However, Turkey and Hungary continue to hold up Sweden's application to the alliance.

As an illustration of the difference between Finland and Russia,
Finland prime minister ousted, conservatives win tight vote | AP News - Prime Minister Sanna Marin's party placed third, and is not likely to join a new governing coalition.

Finland has a single legislative chamber, the 200-seat Eduskunta, elected by proportional representation. How many seats each party got, with the number in the previous election in ()'s.
 2023 Finnish parliamentary election

• National Coalition (conservative) - 48 (38)
• Finns (nationalist, dislikes immigration) - 46 (39)
• Social Democrats (SM's party) - 43 (40)
• Center - 23 (31)
• Green - 13 (20)
• Left Alliance - 11 (16)
• Swedish People's Party - 9 (9)
• Christian Democrats - 5 (5)
• Liik - 1 (1)

A governing coalition requires a majority, at least 101 seats.

Another relatively young female leader is leaving office:

• New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern, an icon to many, to step down | AP News
• Reaction to Jacinda Ardern resigning as New Zealand leader | AP News
• Jacinda Ardern makes final appearance as New Zealand leader | AP News

From the final-appearance article,

Ardern also addressed the wide discussion that has been going on since her announcement about the vitriolic and misogynistic attacks on her on social media — something she has said did not contribute to her decision to step down.

“Whilst there has been a bit of commentary in the aftermath of my departure, I would hate for anyone to view my departure as a negative commentary on New Zealand,” Ardern said. “I have experienced such love, compassion, empathy and kindness when I’ve been in this job. That has been my predominant experience.”

The two Prime Ministers once met, and Jacinda Ardern fires back at suggestion she met with Sanna Marin because of age : NPR

I think Finland should start talking about the Kola Peninsula is historically Finnish and Russia should return it.

Putin might have to rush forced up there to protect the border.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Actually, there have been crackd I wns in Russia on some corruption. At least 60 defense ministers and 150 military suppliers have busted in recent years. In 2015, Putin mandated 1500 Armata 14 tanks were to be produced by 2020. Less than 24 were manufactored but without the promised high tech devices promised. Billions of rubles vanished mysteriously in foreign bank accounts. Pootie could overlook some corruption, but not when his military was gutted this way. The factory that was supposed to be made to create new Armata tanks had empty shell building made, but no equipment installed. Later, Pootie announced 2,000 Armatas were to be built. Well, no. Now with sanctions, cost of a war Pootie is not winning, and Russia about to exhaust the last of his cash reserves, fat chance of creating new tanks, IFVs or aircraft. Russia's vaunted SU-75, The Checkmate, has been in development for years but never got further than a wooden mockup. Oooooo, Scary! Russia squandered its military budget and has no way to easily or quickly recover.

This is all according to plan.

/barbos

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I just caught an amusing interview with a Russian exile. He thinks in the future in Russia, levels of government incompetence will be measured in Putins.

 

[Tigers!]

Finland joins NATO in major blow to Russia over Ukraine war | AP News

Doubling the length of NATO's border with Russia, and I'm sure a major humiliation for Putinites and Russian nationalists.

“The era of nonalignment in our history has come to an end -– a new era begins,” President Sauli Niinistö said before his country’s blue-and-white flag was raised outside NATO headquarters. A short distance away, outside the security fence, a few dozen people wrapped in flags of their own chanted, “Ukraine needs NATO.”

However, Turkey and Hungary continue to hold up Sweden's application to the alliance.

As an illustration of the difference between Finland and Russia,
Finland prime minister ousted, conservatives win tight vote | AP News - Prime Minister Sanna Marin's party placed third, and is not likely to join a new governing coalition.

Finland has a single legislative chamber, the 200-seat Eduskunta, elected by proportional representation. How many seats each party got, with the number in the previous election in ()'s.
 2023 Finnish parliamentary election

• National Coalition (conservative) - 48 (38)
• Finns (nationalist, dislikes immigration) - 46 (39)
• Social Democrats (SM's party) - 43 (40)
• Center - 23 (31)
• Green - 13 (20)
• Left Alliance - 11 (16)
• Swedish People's Party - 9 (9)
• Christian Democrats - 5 (5)
• Liik - 1 (1)

A governing coalition requires a majority, at least 101 seats.

Another relatively young female leader is leaving office:

• New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern, an icon to many, to step down | AP News
• Reaction to Jacinda Ardern resigning as New Zealand leader | AP News
• Jacinda Ardern makes final appearance as New Zealand leader | AP News

From the final-appearance article,

Ardern also addressed the wide discussion that has been going on since her announcement about the vitriolic and misogynistic attacks on her on social media — something she has said did not contribute to her decision to step down.

“Whilst there has been a bit of commentary in the aftermath of my departure, I would hate for anyone to view my departure as a negative commentary on New Zealand,” Ardern said. “I have experienced such love, compassion, empathy and kindness when I’ve been in this job. That has been my predominant experience.”

The two Prime Ministers once met, and Jacinda Ardern fires back at suggestion she met with Sanna Marin because of age : NPR

I think Finland should start talking about the Kola Peninsula is historically Finnish and Russia should return it.

Putin might have to rush forced up there to protect the border.

As long as we do not get a Winter War out of it.

 

[Jayjay]

US and NATO plans leaked:

NYT: Pentagon investigating leak of US and NATO documents on preparing Ukrainian offensive â Novaya Gazeta Europe

The Pentagon is investigating a leak of classified war documents detailing US and NATO plans âfor building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russiaâ to social media, The New York Times reports .

novayagazeta.eu

The interesting part is this:

According to military analysts, some parts of the documents have clearly been altered, with American estimates on the number of killed Ukrainian soldiers exaggerated and Russian ones underreported. The experts NYT talked to agree that this could be a disinformation attempt carried out by Moscow.

If the leaked files are altered, it's probably because the leak came from Russian intelligence. And that means they might have more files also.

EDIT: my mistake, apparently the leaked documents are also available in the internet, and the Russian edit was done later.



How long before certain someone comes here touting these numbers (on the right hand side) as irrefutable proof that NATO "admitted" Ukraine has had 71.5k KIA?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

One of Putin's high-ranking FSO security officers managed to defect while in Kazakhstan in October, 2022. The AP is now reporting on the defection, so there is some new information on what he has revealed about Putin's life and daily routines. Basically, he is running like a scared rabbit from bunker to bunker, often putting out false reports of which bunker he is holed up in. He is in very good health and gets regular checkups. He doesn't use cell phones or the internet and has a special train that whisks him from location to location. Since the renewed invasion of Ukraine, he has become much more paranoid and in fear of his life.

See:

‘He’s a war criminal’: Elite Putin security officer defects​

He's in very good health and gets regular checkups? That is an odd thing to say.

 

[Jayjay]

One of Putin's high-ranking FSO security officers managed to defect while in Kazakhstan in October, 2022. The AP is now reporting on the defection, so there is some new information on what he has revealed about Putin's life and daily routines. Basically, he is running like a scared rabbit from bunker to bunker, often putting out false reports of which bunker he is holed up in. He is in very good health and gets regular checkups. He doesn't use cell phones or the internet and has a special train that whisks him from location to location. Since the renewed invasion of Ukraine, he has become much more paranoid and in fear of his life.

See:

‘He’s a war criminal’: Elite Putin security officer defects​

He's in very good health and gets regular checkups? That is an odd thing to say.

What did you expect? The rumors that he has three kinds of cancer and Parkinson's never seemed very plausible to me.

 

[Copernicus]

He's in very good health and gets regular checkups? That is an odd thing to say.

That just means that he takes reasonable precautions to maintain his health. Stalin did the same thing and, in fact, had some doctors executed for failing to improve the ailments that they discovered. The thing about getting regular checkups is that one's health is always going to break down over time, and failing to get regular checkups is not a great strategy for maintaining it. You don't want to discover a life-threatening condition after it is too late to fix the problem.

 

[bilby]

He's in very good health and gets regular checkups? That is an odd thing to say.

That just means that he takes reasonable precautions to maintain his health. Stalin did the same thing and, in fact, had some doctors executed for failing to improve the ailments that they discovered. The thing about getting regular checkups is that one's health is always going to break down over time, and failing to get regular checkups is not a great strategy for maintaining it. You don't want to discover a life-threatening condition after it is too late to fix the problem.

Stalin died apparently without any attempt to make a timely medical intervention, because he had executed the competent doctors, and the remaining ones (and his non-medical personal staff) were too scared to do anything at all.

He suffered a massive stroke, so it's likely he would have died anyway, but the evidence suggests that nobody was brave enough to even attempt to make his last minutes of life more comfortable.

Being a tyrant with absolute authority isn't always a good thing, even for the tyrant himself.

 

[Elixir]

He's in very good health and gets regular checkups? That is an odd thing to say.

How would anyone know unless he got regular checkups? Especially since he looks like death warmed over...

 

[Jayjay]

He's in very good health and gets regular checkups? That is an odd thing to say.

How would anyone know unless he got regular checkups? Especially since he looks like death warmed over...

In other words, a normal 70-year old Russian man.