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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

The recent leak seems to be a huge blow to US, and also quite harmful to Ukraine's war effort.

Among the leaks there was a revelation that Ukrainian air defense will start to buckle in late May. This confirms to Russia that their tactics are working, so of course they will continue the missile and drone campaign.
Well, yes it’s disconcerting. But the key point in the article is that Ukraine is in need of better and more air defense weapons. We need to give them a lot more. NATO doesn’t need air defense weapons if Ukraine shoots down all of Russia’s planes! We just need to get them all that they need asap.
 
In other news:


21 year old Aur national guardsman arrested in pentagon leak. How would he get such important documents?
 
The recent leak seems to be a huge blow to US, and also quite harmful to Ukraine's war effort.

Among the leaks there was a revelation that Ukrainian air defense will start to buckle in late May. This confirms to Russia that their tactics are working, so of course they will continue the missile and drone campaign.

Well, it's damaging. I wonder how much of it is false. I think that the leak is older information also. But agree with SLD - send the weapons to Ukraine. Send them the fighter jets. If we don’t there will be another genocide in Europe.
 
The recent leak seems to be a huge blow to US, and also quite harmful to Ukraine's war effort.

Among the leaks there was a revelation that Ukrainian air defense will start to buckle in late May. This confirms to Russia that their tactics are working, so of course they will continue the missile and drone campaign.
Well, yes it’s disconcerting. But the key point in the article is that Ukraine is in need of better and more air defense weapons. We need to give them a lot more. NATO doesn’t need air defense weapons if Ukraine shoots down all of Russia’s planes! We just need to get them all that they need asap.
NATO doesn't have enough equivalent or better weapons. The US doctrine during cold war was air superiority; so naturally the Soviet doctrine became overwhelming air defense. After the breakup of the USSR, both Russia and Ukraine had a lot of BUKs and similar short and medium range SAM systems, maybe not technologically as advanced as those in the west, but they had a crapload of them.

And now Ukraine is running out. From what I can gather, BUKs are already out of mssiles, and the May timeline refers to S300. I do hope west can plug the hole or compensate with other means. But it doesn't look good.

No air defense means the tanks and other vehicles are sitting ducks and it could turn the fabled Ukrainian counter-attack a complete failure.
 
Well, we've been backstopping Ukraine's air defenses at least since Russia started hitting Ukrainian infrastructure. So Ukraine running low on anything is nothing new. Zelenskyy is constantly calling for more as he should be and we are constantly doing this "just in time" shipping to them. I'd like to think they have enough or will have enough air defenses to cover all the ground equipment we've given them during any upcoming counter attack. Be kind of foolish to give them a sword and no shield.
My assumption is it is going to be narrow in scope from Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol and sweeping down to cut off the two main roads to Crimea, starving out the orcs in eastern Kherson.
 
My assumption is it is going to be narrow in scope from Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol and sweeping down to cut off the two main roads to Crimea, starving out the orcs in eastern Kherson.
So they'll just "sweep down" hundred miles through heavily fortified territory, surrounded from both flanks, with limited supply of artillery shells and no air superiority? Peace of cake. :rolleyes:

Then again, nobody saw Kharkiv counter-offensive in advance either. But it's unlikely Russia is going to get surprised their pants down now that they have the manpower, and have had over a year to build up defensive positions.
 
US and NATO plans leaked:


The interesting part is this:

According to military analysts, some parts of the documents have clearly been altered, with American estimates on the number of killed Ukrainian soldiers exaggerated and Russian ones underreported. The experts NYT talked to agree that this could be a disinformation attempt carried out by Moscow.

If the leaked files are altered, it's probably because the leak came from Russian intelligence. And that means they might have more files also.

EDIT: my mistake, apparently the leaked documents are also available in the internet, and the Russian edit was done later.



How long before certain someone comes here touting these numbers (on the right hand side) as irrefutable proof that NATO "admitted" Ukraine has had 71.5k KIA? :rolleyes:

Well, it did not age well, did it?
 
No, the entire Ukrainian nonsense from Russia hasn't aged well at all. Russia needed to photoshop leaked US intel to make things look a bit less like a shit show for Russia.
 
No, the entire Ukrainian nonsense from Russia hasn't aged well at all. Russia needed to photoshop leaked US intel to make things look a bit less like a shit show for Russia.
Newsflash for you, Washington Bob, Russia has nothing to do with this leak.
But the leak more less confirmed what pro-russian observers all over the world have been saying.
US government have been lying to you.
 
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How long before certain someone comes here touting these numbers (on the right hand side) as irrefutable proof that NATO "admitted" Ukraine has had 71.5k KIA?
Well, THAT sure didn’t take long!
:hysterical:
 
The recent leak seems to be a huge blow to US, and also quite harmful to Ukraine's war effort.

Among the leaks there was a revelation that Ukrainian air defense will start to buckle in late May. This confirms to Russia that their tactics are working, so of course they will continue the missile and drone campaign.
Well, yes it’s disconcerting. But the key point in the article is that Ukraine is in need of better and more air defense weapons. We need to give them a lot more. NATO doesn’t need air defense weapons if Ukraine shoots down all of Russia’s planes! We just need to get them all that they need asap.
US air defense weapons are F16/F15 :p
Patriots are rare and extremely expensive, both systems and more importantly rockets themselves.
Compare it to Russia where we have systems with dumb dirt cheap rockets which are actually way less expensive than your GPS bombs, not to mention HIMARS.
Basically, NATO does not have economically viable air-defense.

You and your nazi puppets are screwed. You need to choose between wasting your rare and expensive air-defense rockets on these iranian drones or save them for aircrafts with 1.5 tons bombs which are coming as soon as you run out of soviet era air-defense.

Your only real option is to take russian air-defense systems and copy them, and make it cheap and do it yesterday. Good luck to your Military Industrial Complex with that.
 
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Your only real option is to take russian air-defense systems and copy them
Or we could copy the Australian model, and use boomerangs. Probably sufficient to take down the cheap Iranian shit that is all Russia can put in the air.
 
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Your only real option is to take russian air-defense systems and copy them
Or we could copy the Australian model, and use boomerangs. Probably sufficient to take down the cheap Iranian shit that is all Russia can put in the air.
Or you could realise barbos' opinion is about 30 years out of date, and just use CRAMS or Avenger platforms to take out the drones. Besides, the fact that it's been over a year and Russia still hasn't achieved superiority suggests their air force has gone the way of their army. There is a distinct possibility Russia will be down to MiG-21s by December as all their other kit has "walked with Jesus", over the years.

But you gotta love barbos' logic; "There fact we can't manufacture drones of our own and have to buy them off Iran (and our ammunition from North Korea) shows we are clearly winning!"
 
Your only real option is to take russian air-defense systems and copy them
Or we could copy the Australian model, and use boomerangs. Probably sufficient to take down the cheap Iranian shit that is all Russia can put in the air.

Stingers and starstreak manpad systems seem to do pretty good on drones. And helicopters.
 
The recent leak seems to be a huge blow to US, and also quite harmful to Ukraine's war effort.

Among the leaks there was a revelation that Ukrainian air defense will start to buckle in late May. This confirms to Russia that their tactics are working, so of course they will continue the missile and drone campaign.
Well, yes it’s disconcerting. But the key point in the article is that Ukraine is in need of better and more air defense weapons. We need to give them a lot more. NATO doesn’t need air defense weapons if Ukraine shoots down all of Russia’s planes! We just need to get them all that they need asap.
US air defense weapons are F16/F15 :p
Patriots are rare and extremely expensive, both systems and more importantly rockets themselves.
Compare it to Russia where we have systems with dumb dirt cheap rockets which are actually way less expensive than your GPS bombs, not to mention HIMARS.
Basically, NATO does not have economically viable air-defense.

You and your nazi puppets are screwed. You need to choose between wasting your rare and expensive air-defense rockets on these iranian drones or save them for aircrafts with 1.5 tons bombs which are coming as soon as you run out of soviet era air-defense.

Your only real option is to take russian air-defense systems and copy them, and make it cheap and do it yesterday. Good luck to your Military Industrial Complex with that.

A lot of NATO nations use NASAMS. A joint U.S. - Norwegian system cheaper than Patriots. A midrange anti aircraft system using several different and effective modern missiles. Ukraine is now recieving these systems. This will make Russian aircraft rather vulnerable.
 
But you gotta love barbos' logic; "There fact we can't manufacture drones of our own and have to buy them off Iran (and our ammunition from North Korea) shows we are clearly winning!"
That's not my logic, that's your governments logic. They just hide it from you.

And no, Russia does not buy ammunition from North Korea. It's US who is buying ammunition from South Korea. :)
 
But you gotta love barbos' logic; "There fact we can't manufacture drones of our own and have to buy them off Iran (and our ammunition from North Korea) shows we are clearly winning!"
That's not my logic, that's your governments logic. They just hide it from you.

And no, Russia does not buy ammunition from North Korea. It's US who is buying ammunition from South Korea. :)

Actually, South Korea maintains that it does not send lethal weaponry to Ukraine. The reasons are complicated, but South Korea wants to maintain at least the pretense of not sending these shells to Ukraine. The US destination was being used last year as a way for Ukraine to get ammunition that was appropriate for existing Ukrainian artillery.

See this article from November 11, 2022:

US plans to buy 100,000 rounds of artillery ammo from South Korea for Ukraine


This year, the number is going up to 500,000, but the US does not really need this ammunition for itself. The public position is that South Korea is only "lending" the ammunition to the US so that it won't be used in Ukraine.

South Korea to lend 500,000 rounds of artillery shells to US: Report


My guess is that South Korea will be collecting collateral payment, if the loaned shells are not returned.
 
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