How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Cheerful Charlie]

A lot of NATO nations use NASAMS.

Yeah, how many of them?

Ukraine is now recieving these systems

Yeah, how many of them?

Apparently, most of them use this system. Similar to HIMARS, this uses truck with mounted launchers. Radar truck systems. These systems can be rapidly moved, deployed and used. A wide variety of misiles can be used, loaded into launcher pods, and allow extreme flexibilty to NATO military forces. Ukraine is now deploying drones with various sensors networking with Ukranian air defenses, poor man's AWACS.

Cheaper than systems like Patriot, or cost of a big AWACS plane.

 

[bilby]

Or we could copy the Australian model, and use boomerangs.

Which have the advantage of being reusable.

 

[Copernicus]

Here is the article published by WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich, 2 days before his arrest and imprisonment in the Lefortovo prison in Moscow. He is accused of spying at the behest of the US government, which is almost certainly a fabrication, and 40 countries have signed a petition for his release. It was rare even in Soviet times for Russia to arrest foreign reporters.

Russia’s Economy Is Starting to Come Undone​

 

[TV and credit cards]

CSIS has a paper on how the sanctions are disrupting military production. Some things I did not consider like bearings. Western nations supplied Russia bearings and bearings are used on much military equipment not to mention the trains that carry that equipment. Though it does not mention, I believe the reason Russia does not produce its own bearings is because they do not produce the high quality steel needed to make them. The paper also confirms an earlier article I read regarding the quality of microchips Russia is receiving from China. There is a 40% failure rate.
So while the paper starts out describing how Russia is in pretty good shape as far as inventory goes, looking a little deeper tells of the difficulties of getting that equipment into the field. It also goes into machine tools which I did not know, even China is dependent upon the west for advanced machine tools.

Assessing the Impact of Sanctions on Russia’s Defense Industry

 

[robnisch]

CSIS has a paper on how the sanctions are disrupting military production. Some things I did not consider like bearings. Western nations supplied Russia bearings and bearings are used on much military equipment not to mention the trains that carry that equipment. Though it does not mention, I believe the reason Russia does not produce its own bearings is because they do not produce the high quality steel needed to make them. The paper also confirms an earlier article I read regarding the quality of microchips Russia is receiving from China. There is a 40% failure rate.
So while the paper starts out describing how Russia is in pretty good shape as far as inventory goes, looking a little deeper tells of the difficulties of getting that equipment into the field. It also goes into machine tools which I did not know, even China is dependent upon the west for advanced machine tools.

Assessing the Impact of Sanctions on Russia’s Defense Industry

I visualize workers running WII lathes and milling machines.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Compare it to Russia where we have systems with dumb dirt cheap rockets which are actually way less expensive than your GPS bombs, not to mention HIMARS.
Basically, NATO does not have economically viable air-defense.

Your SAMs are no cheaper than ours. You do have a lot more of them, though, because we have based our strategy more on control of the skies.

If your SAMs are "dirt cheap" why did you lose the Moskova? It was distracted looking at drones--but didn't engage them.

You and your nazi puppets are screwed. You need to choose between wasting your rare and expensive air-defense rockets on these iranian drones or save them for aircrafts with 1.5 tons bombs which are coming as soon as you run out of soviet era air-defense.

Your only real option is to take russian air-defense systems and copy them, and make it cheap and do it yesterday. Good luck to your Military Industrial Complex with that.

Iron bombs are a good way to lose your planes to MANPADS. They simply aren't accurate enough without going into the MANPAD envelope and it's effectively impossible to suppress MANPADS--you simply hope the missile goes for a flare instead.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

A lot of NATO nations use NASAMS. A joint U.S. - Norwegian system cheaper than Patriots. A midrange anti aircraft system using several different and effective modern missiles. Ukraine is now recieving these systems. This will make Russian aircraft rather vulnerable.

Yup. Patriot is rather overkill for most purposes. NASAMS is far more what Ukraine needs and Russia has shown that it simply can't suppress mobile SAMs, they have no SEAD doctrine other than hammering fixed launchers. Furthermore, Ukraine has the advantage that they have untouchable (because they're ours, not theirs) radar birds giving them warning. A mobile SAM doesn't need to radiate until it gets an alert that there's a target. Light up, if there's something where they were told to look they can simply fire without having to identify it. The NASAMS is basically a ground-launch AIM-120--it has it's own homing system and won't be lost if the launcher shuts down. Thus if there's any hint of return fire the launcher just shuts down and gets off the X. Since they're mobile there's no way Russia can plot a route around them.

NASAMS has the same weakness of all SAMs that you can fly low enough to defeat them unless you get very close--but that means you're up shit creek if someone lobs a MANPAD at you. You won't be protected by flares (no plane can keep spewing them for an extended period) and you'll have very little time to react.

 

[Copernicus]

But you gotta love barbos' logic; "There fact we can't manufacture drones of our own and have to buy them off Iran (and our ammunition from North Korea) shows we are clearly winning!"

That's not my logic, that's your governments logic. They just hide it from you.

And no, Russia does not buy ammunition from North Korea. It's US who is buying ammunition from South Korea.

Actually, South Korea maintains that it does not send lethal weaponry to Ukraine. The reasons are complicated, but South Korea wants to maintain at least the pretense of not sending these shells to Ukraine. The US destination was being used last year as a way for Ukraine to get ammunition that was appropriate for existing Ukrainian artillery.

See this article from November 11, 2022:

US plans to buy 100,000 rounds of artillery ammo from South Korea for Ukraine​

This year, the number is going up to 500,000, but the US does not really need this ammunition for itself. The public position is that South Korea is only "lending" the ammunition to the US so that it won't be used in Ukraine.

South Korea to lend 500,000 rounds of artillery shells to US: Report​

My guess is that South Korea will be collecting collateral payment, if the loaned shells are not returned.

As I understand it now, the loaned shells will not go to Ukraine. The US does not have enough of the shells to send to Ukraine in order to meet their needs, because our military needs to retain a sufficient stock of them. However, the South Korean shells will allow the US to free up supplies that can be sent to Ukraine. The Kyiv Post also suggests that South Korea's policy of not supplying weapons to Ukraine could change:

EXPLAINED: Why South Korea’s New Stance on Ukraine is So Significant​

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

But you gotta love barbos' logic; "There fact we can't manufacture drones of our own and have to buy them off Iran (and our ammunition from North Korea) shows we are clearly winning!"

That's not my logic, that's your governments logic. They just hide it from you.

And no, Russia does not buy ammunition from North Korea. It's US who is buying ammunition from South Korea.

Let's see.

1. Yeah, having allies sucks!
2. Our production isn't quite as relevant seeing we aren't at war. We are supplying an ally with munitions to defend themselves.
3. Did you get your golly's over people being cold in the winter? That is over now. Maybe you can rediscover some humanity this spring.

 

[Copernicus]

There are signs that Russia is looking to carry out further sabotage in the Baltic and may be developing plans to conduct further sabotage. There are numerous Russian ships there that periodically go dark by turning off their transponders. They appear to be looking at infrastructure targets, for example against the wind farms that Denmark and neighboring countries rely on for energy. This comes from a joint investigation by public broadcasters from Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway.

Ukraine war: The Russian ships accused of North Sea sabotage​

 

[Copernicus]

Much earlier on in the war, Russia was denying that it targeted non-military civilian targets, and barbos was fond of suggesting that the Ukrainians were bombing and shelling their own territory accidentally or even to make it look like Russia was committing war crimes. Now we have a case of a Russian pilot firing on their own city of Belgorod, which is 25 miles (40 kilometers) from the Ukrainian border. This should give Russians living there just a fraction of a taste of what Ukrainian civilians have suffered in their cities. Russia admits that there were only two women injured, although the property damage was extensive. The Russian pilot, for once, didn't have to risk getting shot down by Ukrainian air defenses.

Ukraine war: Russian warplane 'accidentally fires on own city'​

 

[Tigers!]

Much earlier on in the war, Russia was denying that it targeted non-military civilian targets, and barbos was fond of suggesting that the Ukrainians were bombing and shelling their own territory accidentally or even to make it look like Russia was committing war crimes. Now we have a case of a Russian pilot firing on their own city of Belgorod, which is 25 miles (40 kilometers) from the Ukrainian border. This should give Russians living there just a fraction of a taste of what Ukrainian civilians have suffered in their cities. Russia admits that there were only two women injured, although the property damage was extensive. The Russian pilot, for once, didn't have to risk getting shot down by Ukrainian air defenses.

Ukraine war: Russian warplane 'accidentally fires on own city'​

Shades of Luftwaffe bombing their own city in May 1940
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Freiburg_on_10_May_1940

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

After a big Russian Pacific Fleet exercise, the Russian Naval commander has been removed from his command and demoted by Pootie. No particulars why, but Pootie did not like the state of readiness of the Pacific Fleet.

Do Russian sailors have Russian sailor sea shanties?

"I am cold and wet
The food is bad
There is no vodka
I wanto go home."

Chorus:
"Give that sailor vodka
And send that sailor home!"

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

More interesting items from the war in Ukraine.
Russia is heavily relying on their SU-27s. Not a bad plane if we ignore the not exactly state of the art avionics. About on the level of the F-16. The Russians have given up going into Ukranian airspace having lost so aircraft. The now use these to lob missiles out of reach of SAMs.

Th aeir engines are powerful, but have half the life serviceof the F-16 engines. and even then these engines need a lot of maintenance. Using afterburners shortens Russian useful lives to 200 hours.

They have been heavily using their fleet of aircraft assigned to fighting Ukraine. They may be approaching serious problems by the end of the year. Replacing engines means having a supply of them, competent mechanics, and time.

 

[TV and credit cards]

More interesting items from the war in Ukraine.
Russia is heavily relying on their SU-27s. Not a bad plane if we ignore the not exactly state of the art avionics. About on the level of the F-16. The Russians have given up going into Ukranian airspace having lost so aircraft. The now use these to lob missiles out of reach of SAMs.

Th aeir engines are powerful, but have half the life serviceof the F-16 engines. and even then these engines need a lot of maintenance. Using afterburners shortens Russian useful lives to 200 hours.

They have been heavily using their fleet of aircraft assigned to fighting Ukraine. They may be approaching serious problems by the end of the year. Replacing engines means having a supply of them, competent mechanics, and time.

To save their remaining aircraft, the Russians have avoided Ukrainian airspace for some time now.

I have a theory that when the US govt learned of Teixeira's sharing of classified documents on line and that the Russians were getting ahold of it, they started feeding Teixeira bogus information, some of which being the Ukrainians not being able to defend their airspace soon, this to lure Russian aircraft back over Ukrainian skies.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

From Wkipedia - B.O.A.K.

The Combat Organization of Anarcho-Communists (Russian: Боевая организация анархо-коммунистов, romanized: Boyevaya organizatsiya anarkho-kommunistov; BOAK) is a militant anarcho-communist organization in Eastern Europe, part of the Belarusian and Russian partisan movement.[1][2] It aims for social revolution and a libertarian socialist society. Since the start of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, it has sabotaged railway infrastructure in Russia and Belarus, as well as attacking Russian military commissariats and telecommunications.

Stop laughing! You know you want the T-Shirt.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

More interesting items from the war in Ukraine.
Russia is heavily relying on their SU-27s. Not a bad plane if we ignore the not exactly state of the art avionics. About on the level of the F-16. The Russians have given up going into Ukranian airspace having lost so aircraft. The now use these to lob missiles out of reach of SAMs.

Th aeir engines are powerful, but have half the life serviceof the F-16 engines. and even then these engines need a lot of maintenance. Using afterburners shortens Russian useful lives to 200 hours.

They have been heavily using their fleet of aircraft assigned to fighting Ukraine. They may be approaching serious problems by the end of the year. Replacing engines means having a supply of them, competent mechanics, and time.

To save their remaining aircraft, the Russians have avoided Ukrainian airspace for some time now.

I have a theory that when the US govt learned of Teixeira's sharing of classified documents on line and that the Russians were getting ahold of it, they started feeding Teixeira bogus information, some of which being the Ukrainians not being able to defend their airspace soon, this to lure Russian aircraft back over Ukrainian skies.

I don't know if it happened but if the leak were detected before it became public that would be the thing to do--when you identify a leak and can silo it you give the enemy a trusted source of disinformation. Spies are often not arrested for this very reason. Even once the enemy figures out what happened they're faced with not knowing when the switch happened.

 

[TV and credit cards]

More interesting items from the war in Ukraine.
Russia is heavily relying on their SU-27s. Not a bad plane if we ignore the not exactly state of the art avionics. About on the level of the F-16. The Russians have given up going into Ukranian airspace having lost so aircraft. The now use these to lob missiles out of reach of SAMs.

Th aeir engines are powerful, but have half the life serviceof the F-16 engines. and even then these engines need a lot of maintenance. Using afterburners shortens Russian useful lives to 200 hours.

They have been heavily using their fleet of aircraft assigned to fighting Ukraine. They may be approaching serious problems by the end of the year. Replacing engines means having a supply of them, competent mechanics, and time.

To save their remaining aircraft, the Russians have avoided Ukrainian airspace for some time now.

I have a theory that when the US govt learned of Teixeira's sharing of classified documents on line and that the Russians were getting ahold of it, they started feeding Teixeira bogus information, some of which being the Ukrainians not being able to defend their airspace soon, this to lure Russian aircraft back over Ukrainian skies.

I don't know if it happened but if the leak were detected before it became public that would be the thing to do--when you identify a leak and can silo it you give the enemy a trusted source of disinformation. Spies are often not arrested for this very reason. Even once the enemy figures out what happened they're faced with not knowing when the switch happened.

Wishful thinking on my part but hopefully it at least sowed confusion in the Kremlin regarding the authenticity of the information.

 

[bilby]

More interesting items from the war in Ukraine.
Russia is heavily relying on their SU-27s. Not a bad plane if we ignore the not exactly state of the art avionics. About on the level of the F-16. The Russians have given up going into Ukranian airspace having lost so aircraft. The now use these to lob missiles out of reach of SAMs.

Th aeir engines are powerful, but have half the life serviceof the F-16 engines. and even then these engines need a lot of maintenance. Using afterburners shortens Russian useful lives to 200 hours.

They have been heavily using their fleet of aircraft assigned to fighting Ukraine. They may be approaching serious problems by the end of the year. Replacing engines means having a supply of them, competent mechanics, and time.

To save their remaining aircraft, the Russians have avoided Ukrainian airspace for some time now.

I have a theory that when the US govt learned of Teixeira's sharing of classified documents on line and that the Russians were getting ahold of it, they started feeding Teixeira bogus information, some of which being the Ukrainians not being able to defend their airspace soon, this to lure Russian aircraft back over Ukrainian skies.

I don't know if it happened but if the leak were detected before it became public that would be the thing to do--when you identify a leak and can silo it you give the enemy a trusted source of disinformation. Spies are often not arrested for this very reason. Even once the enemy figures out what happened they're faced with not knowing when the switch happened.

One reason why the southeast of London was particularly badly hit by the German V1 "Doodlebug" flying bomb, was that British intelligence had captured and either executed or turned every German spy in Britain by that stage of the war.

The spies were given the choice of being shot, or continuing to send "information" back to Germany, that was supplied by British Military Intelligence.

When the V1 campaign began, the bombs tended to fall a little short of their intended target in central London. British intelligence officials directed their newly recruited double agents to tell their German controllers that the bombs were landing in the Northwestern suburbs, so that they shortened the range to correct this "overshoot".

The Germans believed this misinformation, and as a result the V1 campaign was largely wasted on the working class housing of the southeastern suburbs, and had little impact on central London.

This wasn't hugely popular with the people, such as my grandparents and my father, who lived in the southeastern suburbs.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I don't know if it happened but if the leak were detected before it became public that would be the thing to do--when you identify a leak and can silo it you give the enemy a trusted source of disinformation. Spies are often not arrested for this very reason. Even once the enemy figures out what happened they're faced with not knowing when the switch happened.

One reason why the southeast of London was particularly badly hit by the German V1 "Doodlebug" flying bomb, was that British intelligence had captured and either executed or turned every German spy in Britain by that stage of the war.

The spies were given the choice of being shot, or continuing to send "information" back to Germany, that was supplied by British Military Intelligence.

When the V1 campaign began, the bombs tended to fall a little short of their intended target in central London. British intelligence officials directed their newly recruited double agents to tell their German controllers that the bombs were landing in the Northwestern suburbs, so that they shortened the range to correct this "overshoot".

The Germans believed this misinformation, and as a result the V1 campaign was largely wasted on the working class housing of the southeastern suburbs, and had little impact on central London.

This wasn't hugely popular with the people, such as my grandparents and my father, who lived in the southeastern suburbs.

Yup, I didn't know exactly where but I know they did manage to deceive Germany into bombing the outskirts rather than the city center.

And you're describing another thing they like to do with spies--force them to work for you. The problem with this approach is if they have a duress code. If you can trick them it's better, but obviously with something obvious like this you can't trick the spies.