How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[barbos]

Except for the little detail that in hindsight we see Ukrainian claims mostly backed up and Russian claims not match up with what we see later.

Ehhh, nope. Ukrainians are horrible liars. Russian side, on the other hand, don't even say much.

 

[barbos]

From Reuters, it looks like just three drones were sent to hit the oil tanks serving Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Two were shot down while one made it to the target. Apparently with oil tanks, one is enough. Ukrainian intel reports ten tanks were destroyed. Looks like someone's air defenses aren't up to snuff.
So while Russia hits civilians in their homes, Ukraine is hitting military targets.

Storage tanks

The above point should be repeated over and over. In fact, is there another army in the modern world that deliberately attacks civilian targets? And when the fucking hell did this become acceptable? When the fuck did it become acceptable for an invader to steal the children from the area that it conquers? When was this practice last acceptable? The Mongol invasions? Then all the routine looting, taking land, fake elections, kidnapping journalists and etc. Russia is a bandito nation. Shame on anyone who defends their banditry.

Really? Daria Dugina, Tatarskiy, these were millitary targets? 8 years of bombing Donetsk, millitary targets as well?
Nuclear Power Plant? millitary target as well?
Give me one example of Russia intentionally hitting civilian target.
Ukrainian AA rockets hitting air-conditioners does not count.

 

[bilby]

Strange that we see different things. Both links lead to the tank farm for me. His link has a name embedded in it as well as coordinates, yours is encoded somehow.

Mine's just what Google maps throws up when you feed it raw latitude and longitude, rather than any place names.

 

[barbos]

ISW is confirming Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in Oleshky just the other side of Kherson. ISW suspects Ukrainian forces may have been their for some time but just now are confident enough in the reporting to put it out on their website.

Well. it did not age well. Ukrainian Nazistan itself confirmed no such thing ever happened.

 

[bilby]

ISW is confirming Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in Oleshky just the other side of Kherson. ISW suspects Ukrainian forces may have been their for some time but just now are confident enough in the reporting to put it out on their website.

Well. it did not age well. Ukrainian Nazistan itself confirmed no such thing ever happened.

No, they didn't.

(See how that works? Assertions made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence).

 

[Copernicus]

ISW is confirming Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in Oleshky just the other side of Kherson. ISW suspects Ukrainian forces may have been their for some time but just now are confident enough in the reporting to put it out on their website.

Well. it did not age well. Ukrainian Nazistan itself confirmed no such thing ever happened.

No, they didn't.

(See how that works? Assertions made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence).

The irony is that it was Russian milbloggers who outed the fact that Ukraine had achieved a beachhead there. The Ukrainians themselves were not advertising it. Barbos doesn't really know what is going on there, because he relies primarily on Russian propaganda for his information. Although he has better access to Western news sources than most Russians, he is predisposed to reject it all as a bunch of cynical lies.

 

[barbos]

ISW is confirming Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in Oleshky just the other side of Kherson. ISW suspects Ukrainian forces may have been their for some time but just now are confident enough in the reporting to put it out on their website.

Well. it did not age well. Ukrainian Nazistan itself confirmed no such thing ever happened.

No, they didn't.

(See how that works? Assertions made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence).

Yes, they did.
And yes, I know how it works, Your media throws the shit on a wall and then ignore what happens afterward.
Have your media followed on AlfaBank Story? they have not.
Have your media followed on 6 guys on a boat story? they have not.
Have your media followed on Iraq's WMD? No they have not. Lying piece of shit Powell quietly retired, Bush was reelected and that's it. No responsibility at all.

 

[bilby]

ISW is confirming Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in Oleshky just the other side of Kherson. ISW suspects Ukrainian forces may have been their for some time but just now are confident enough in the reporting to put it out on their website.

Well. it did not age well. Ukrainian Nazistan itself confirmed no such thing ever happened.

No, they didn't.

(See how that works? Assertions made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence).

Yes, they did.
And yes, I know how it works, Your media throws the shit on a wall and then ignore what happens afterward.
Have your media followed on AlfaBank Story? they have not.
Have your media followed on 6 guys on a boat story? they have not.
Have your media followed on Iraq's WMD? No they have not.

Yeah, they have.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I have seen some analysis that Ukraine may attack South along the coast to Crimea. The towns of Metropol and Tokmok are important location as Russia relies on railroads to supply Crimea. Their critical rail lines are through these areas. The Kersh bridge is damaged and cannot support heavy train traffic. Cut their supply lines to Crimea and the Russians will have a very serious problem. Expect the Kersh bridge to get hammered again.

 

[barbos]

ISW is confirming Ukrainian forces have established a foothold on the east bank of the Dnipro in Oleshky just the other side of Kherson. ISW suspects Ukrainian forces may have been their for some time but just now are confident enough in the reporting to put it out on their website.

Well. it did not age well. Ukrainian Nazistan itself confirmed no such thing ever happened.

No, they didn't.

(See how that works? Assertions made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence).

Yes, they did.
And yes, I know how it works, Your media throws the shit on a wall and then ignore what happens afterward.
Have your media followed on AlfaBank Story? they have not.
Have your media followed on 6 guys on a boat story? they have not.
Have your media followed on Iraq's WMD? No they have not.

Yeah, they have.

No, they have not.

 

[barbos]

Cut their supply lines to Crimea and the Russians will have a very serious problem. Expect the Kersh bridge to get hammered again.

In your wet dreams. Russians have built serious defensive lines and are anxiously waiting beating the crap out of nazis.

 

[bilby]

I'm guessing that there will be a couple of highly plausible options discussed by the bloggers, commentators, and other "experts" in the few weeks leading up to a major Ukrainian assault on Russian positions. Then there will be a couple of days of softening up of one or both areas with artillery.

After which the Ukrainian military will make their main attack somewhere else, and catch the orcs completely flat-footed.

 

[bilby]

No, they have not.

Yeah, they have.

 

[barbos]

No, they have not.

Yeah, they have.

If they had I would have seen the evidence of that already.
Where is video of that cunt Rachel Maddow apologizing for AlfaBank story?
Where is BBC apologizing for staged chemical attacks in Syria?
Your scum neocon media simply ignores facts which do not fit their narrative.

 

[bilby]

If they had I would have seen the evidence of that already.

No, you wouldn't.

 

[barbos]

If they had I would have seen the evidence of that already.

No, you wouldn't.

I would.

 

[bilby]

If they had I would have seen the evidence of that already.

No, you wouldn't.

I would.

Nope.

 

[TV and credit cards]

It was mentioned in ISW that this might be the fuel for the Black Sea Fleet: Black Sea Fleet Fuel Farm? (I stuck a pin in it this time so anyone looking should land on the right spot.) It and the surrounding area looks to be somewhat derelict to me. I'm guessing Ukraine hit the right one. Still no clarity on damage though.

Isolating Crimea would be ideal, I would think. To have a shot at the Kerch bridge would require Ukrainian forces to be somewhere south of Melitopol to get within 150km which is ground-launched small-diameter bomb max range. Even still the bridge should have significant air defenses. If Crimea's land routes were cut, what a prize.

I still wonder about Ukraine's air defenses. If they cannot protect a large main force, there's no point in having one. But to be able to cut the land routes between Kherson oblast and Crimea would be ideal. The Russians dug in in eastern Kherson would be isolated along with Crimea. I'd bet dollars to doughnuts, Putin's pride would make those guys stand and die.

 

[bilby]

It and the surrounding area looks to be somewhat derelict to me.

It looks like the fuel tanks are widely dispersed, and set into square holes cut down into the bedrock; Crimea is mostly sedimentary geology, largely Jurassic limestone, so it lends itself to such things, if you have a Soviet Cold War mentality that is prepared to put a lot of effort into blast protection for a fairly small amount of strategically vital fuel.

The derelict appearance might just be a consequence of the limestone pavement inhibiting plant growth.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if this was the primary fuel dump for the Soviet Black Sea Fleet in the 1980s; I would hope it's not still the primary fuel storage today, but then, the Russian Navy isn't exactly a paragon of modernity.

Either way, any strike that reduces the fuel supply in Crimea will help the Ukrainian cause, even if it's not fuel that was specifically earmarked for Russian military use - you can be sure that the military will have first call on any available resources, now that the Kerch Strait rail bridge is under severely reduced capacity.

 

[Rhea]

Cut their supply lines to Crimea and the Russians will have a very serious problem. Expect the Kersh bridge to get hammered again.

In your wet dreams. Russians have built serious defensive lines and are anxiously waiting beating the crap out of nazis.

Barbos, I am curious, could you please explain your use of the words “Nazis” for the Ukranians? I’m not being snarky here, I am genuinely trying to understand what you mean when you say it.

What specific behaviors and actions make a person a “Nazi”?

Years ago it meant (and I am open to correction, here) people who were authoritarian and tribalistic, ready to dehumanize and torture/murder anyone who is not in their tribe, and ALSO be expansionist, wanting to spread their tribal supremacy and subjugate non-members. Historically it was racial, religious and socially non-conforming people. Historically, it was not every single resident of Germany, but a sub-set of them.

So, when you use this word to describe Ukrainians, all of them, what specific “nazi” behavior are you picturing?