How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Harry Bosch]

Cut their supply lines to Crimea and the Russians will have a very serious problem. Expect the Kersh bridge to get hammered again.

In your wet dreams. Russians have built serious defensive lines and are anxiously waiting beating the crap out of nazis.

Barbos, I am curious, could you please explain your use of the words “Nazis” for the Ukranians? I’m not being snarky here, I am genuinely trying to understand what you mean when you say it.

What specific behaviors and actions make a person a “Nazi”?

Years ago it meant (and I am open to correction, here) people who were authoritarian and tribalistic, ready to dehumanize and torture/murder anyone who is not in their tribe, and ALSO be expansionist, wanting to spread their tribal supremacy and subjugate non-members. Historically it was racial, religious and socially non-conforming people. Historically, it was not every single resident of Germany, but a sub-set of them.

So, when you use this word to describe Ukrainians, all of them, what specific “nazi” behavior are you picturing?

Very early in this thread, Barbos claimed that Ukranians are Nazis because there is a street in Kyiv that was named after a Ukranian nazi sympathizer from WW2.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Remember when Stalin became buddies with Hitler? And invaded Poland with Hitler dividing Poland between them?

 

[Jayjay]

The edit grace period is, what, 60 minutes? I was under a wrong impression of what happened for almost an hour, oh my!

There was no russian edits.

Yes, there were.


The one on the left is the original. The one from the right is what was disseminated in Russian channels.

This could have been done by intelligence services, or just enthusiastic volunteers. Whoever it was, they wanted to gloat about the leak, but knew that most Russians are easily gullible so they massaged the numbers a bit before doing so. It's not like you and your friends from the youtube comments section would ever do any fact checking.

 

[Jayjay]

Really, now?!?!

yes, really.

(Argh--I didn't notice the units were kg, not pounds. The idea remains valid, though.)
Google hit #1 shows this to be a standard 500 kg general purpose bomb. To drop an iron bomb with reasonable accuracy you have to go into the MANPAD envelope of whatever you're targeting. Russia has shown great reluctance to do that these days because they've lost too many planes that way.

Oh boy, you're even more misinformed than I thought.
Russia uses GPS/GLONAS guided gliding bombs. So take your MANPAD and throw it into trash.
And no, Russia have not lost many planes. I doubt they lost any Su-35. Few old su-25, sure, but not Su-35.

According to Oryx, who keeps pretty good track of Russian losses from public sources, two Su-35s have been downed.

32f — Postimages

postlmg.cc

1301 su35 destr 19 07 22 — Postimages

postlmg.cc

Granted, these could have been just malfunctions or friendly fire and not shot down by Ukraine. With Russian equipment you never know.

 

[Copernicus]

Remember when Stalin became buddies with Hitler? And invaded Poland with Hitler dividing Poland between them?

Allies would be a better word. The Soviets actually joined with Germany in a hostile campaign aimed at the British. Hitler was actually planning to attack the Soviets and was secretly encouraging the Japanese to attack from Manchuria. However, the Japanese were more interested in China and Indochina, so they ignored him. (Source: Historian Timothy Snyder's book Bloodlands.) Both Germany and the Soviet Union began harmonizing their propaganda campaigns against the West. The Soviets even started mimicking Nazi propaganda techniques:

Nazi And Soviet Propaganda's Shared Aesthetic​

 

[Copernicus]

It looks like Putin may have hung Prigozhin out to dry in Bakhmut. Prigozhin is now threatening to withdraw his troops there if the Russian military does not begin to supply him with ammunition, claiming that he can only last there another few days.

Wagner boss threatens Bakhmut withdrawal unless his forces get more munitions​

 

[Jayjay]

No, they have not.

Yeah, they have.

If they had I would have seen the evidence of that already.

All you have to do is actually follow the news, especially newspapers.

Where is video of that cunt Rachel Maddow apologizing for AlfaBank story?
Where is BBC apologizing for staged chemical attacks in Syria?

Here:

Corrections and Clarifications - Archive 2021

The BBC's responses to editorial, technical and corporate issues.

www.bbc.co.uk

Mayday: The Canister on the Bed​

BBC Radio 4, Friday 20 November 2020

In a report on a chemical weapons investigation by the OPCW (Organisation for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons) in Douma, Syria, we said a whistleblower believed the attack had been staged. This was based on our interpretation of research and testimony from sources at the time of broadcast.

Since then, ‘Alex’ has told the BBC he challenged how the OPCW reached its conclusions because of his concerns over its methods and procedures. He says he has called for an open and transparent process to address these issues, but does not prejudge the outcome of any such ‘proper, independent and impartial investigation.’

BBC and most western news sources are actually held accountable for any inaccuracies and mistakes they make. That's exactly why they are more reliable than outright propaganda outlets that pass for "news" in Russia. Or some random youtube channels.

 

[Elixir]

Russians … are anxiously waiting beating the crap out of nazis.

I hope their supply line are good. It’s going to be a long wait before any Nazis come along. In all probability, Ukranians will kill or capture them all long before they ever see a Nazi.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I have seen some analysis that Ukraine may attack South along the coast to Crimea. The towns of Metropol and Tokmok are important location as Russia relies on railroads to supply Crimea. Their critical rail lines are through these areas. The Kersh bridge is damaged and cannot support heavy train traffic. Cut their supply lines to Crimea and the Russians will have a very serious problem. Expect the Kersh bridge to get hammered again.

This war has done a good job of showing the NATO deep strike doctrine works.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Cut their supply lines to Crimea and the Russians will have a very serious problem. Expect the Kersh bridge to get hammered again.

In your wet dreams. Russians have built serious defensive lines and are anxiously waiting beating the crap out of nazis.

Defensive lines get bypassed, not attacked.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

UK will be getting Ukraine long range missiles. Kiss the Kerch bridge goodbye.

London is looking for long-range missiles for Ukraine

The UK plans to arm Ukraine with missiles with a 100 to 300 km range through the Fund for Ukraine

mil.in.ua

 

[Elixir]

Defensive lines get bypassed, not attacked.

You forget how stupid ACTUAL Nazis are.
Last time, they tried to walk in to Moscow in the dead of winter, so the Putler boys are probably expecting something just as stupid. Merely another laughable outcome from believing their own propaganda.

Ukranians are Nazis like Pootey is a Democrat.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Cut their supply lines to Crimea and the Russians will have a very serious problem. Expect the Kersh bridge to get hammered again.

In your wet dreams. Russians have built serious defensive lines and are anxiously waiting beating the crap out of nazis.

Defensive lines get bypassed, not attacked.

Russian defensive lines in the South are long and will have to be broken, not bypassed. The problem here is Russia is running short of weapons and ammo. The long defense lines make it hard to supply all of it adequately. And all those Russian troops will be poorly trained mobiks. Russian lacks adequate numbers of trucks, so logistics will be a problem along with moving troops quickly to plug breakthroughs.

 

[robnisch]

Wagner boss says the Kremlin won't talk to him anymore after he complained that Russia isn't giving his troops enough ammo

Yevgeny Prigozhin, once thought to be a close Putin ally, said on Thursday that all of his direct lines to the Kremlin have stopped responding.

www.businessinsider.com

He spoke out again a few days ago and said they could not continue much longer without more ammo.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Russian defensive lines in the South are long and will have to be broken, not bypassed. The problem here is Russia is running short of weapons and ammo. The long defense lines make it hard to supply all of it adequately. And all those Russian troops will be poorly trained mobiks. Russian lacks adequate numbers of trucks, so logistics will be a problem along with moving troops quickly to plug breakthroughs.

Defensive lines are not strong everywhere plus there's the fact that the Orcs lack mobility. You just keep punching until you find the weak spot and then exploit it.

 

[Patooka]

Wagner boss says the Kremlin won't talk to him anymore after he complained that Russia isn't giving his troops enough ammo

Yevgeny Prigozhin, once thought to be a close Putin ally, said on Thursday that all of his direct lines to the Kremlin have stopped responding.

www.businessinsider.com

He spoke out again a few days ago and said they could not continue much longer without more ammo.

Honestly, I would offer him a ride if it gets him out of there. He could take over Tucker's old job and bitch about his ammo issues every night. Two birds.

 

[bilby]

Cut their supply lines to Crimea and the Russians will have a very serious problem. Expect the Kersh bridge to get hammered again.

In your wet dreams. Russians have built serious defensive lines and are anxiously waiting beating the crap out of nazis.

Defensive lines get bypassed, not attacked.

Yeah, the French built serious defensive lines to keep the actual Nazis out; The Nazis just went round through the Ardennes.

 

[bilby]

UK will be getting Ukraine long range missiles. Kiss the Kerch bridge goodbye.

London is looking for long-range missiles for Ukraine

The UK plans to arm Ukraine with missiles with a 100 to 300 km range through the Fund for Ukraine

mil.in.ua

Usually missiles with a range below 1000km are classified as "Short Range"; 300km is the high end of "Tactical Range".

The typical range descriptors are:
Tactical: <300km
Short: 300-1,000km
Medium: 1,000-3,000km
Intermediate: 3,000-5,500km
Long (aka Intercontinental): >5,500km

Ukraine doesn't need Long Range missiles, unless they're planning to target Vladivostok

 

[TV and credit cards]

The Drive has a pretty good article on the fuel farm fire.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...puts-russian-fuel-depot-in-crimea-up-in-smoke

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Cut their supply lines to Crimea and the Russians will have a very serious problem. Expect the Kersh bridge to get hammered again.

In your wet dreams. Russians have built serious defensive lines and are anxiously waiting beating the crap out of nazis.

Defensive lines get bypassed, not attacked.

Yeah, the French built serious defensive lines to keep the actual Nazis out; The Nazis just went round through the Ardennes.

At Stalingrad, the Germans were well dug in but their flanks were weak, held by allies such as Romanians. The Russians attacked these weak positions and enveloped the 6th army. Russia can dig in at key points, but not all along their Southern defense line in strength. This won't necessarily guarantee Ukrainian success in taking and holding territory, but they can do a lot of damage. An old and favorite Russian technique is massed artillery. But they don't haveven<ough artillery, munitions, and logistic capability to do this over hundreds of kilometers of a long front line. Or to movelots of troops fast to plug breakthroughs. And most of their elite forces have badly mauled. This may get ugly.