Yeah. The faster the missile is going the smaller the zone from which it can be intercepted, but SAMs defending a high value target will normally have an intercept solution. Get in front of it, go boom--it's speed doesn't really come into play that much. Ballistic targets are harder to hit because all the delicate stuff is either gone or at least spent, what's left has a lot less in the way of vital areas. And killing all that remaining delicate stuff does nothing other than throw the aim off a bit. (As we saw in Desert Storm. The Patriots went for the biggest target and blew up the spent boosters.)
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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?
- Thread starter Harry Bosch
- Start date
T.G.G. Moogly
Traditional Atheist
It's just about the program and how well it deals with incoming variables. I think the Ruskies are still living in the past. Like Loren said, it just has to go boom at the right time and place. It doesn't matter how "perfect" everything is or how good I feel about it. It just has to go boom when and where it needs to. For some reason, this simple fact gets lost on Ruskies, even today.
TV and credit cards
Contributor
Putin thrusts his hand into the past, eraser in hand. According to Russian history, "In September 1939, the Soviet Union did not attack Poland; it merely protected territory abandoned by the collapsed Polish state".[1] Today Russia did not attack Ukraine; it merely attempted to protect the people in Donbas.[2]
And sure enough, Prigozhin's derogatory comments aimed at "happy grandfather" did not go over well in the Kremlin. The top leadership is "expressing concern". Russian history will not look favorably upon thee.
And sure enough, Prigozhin's derogatory comments aimed at "happy grandfather" did not go over well in the Kremlin. The top leadership is "expressing concern". Russian history will not look favorably upon thee.
SLD
Contributor
So what is the outrageous BS your criminal government is subjecting you to on Bakhmut? Are you still going to capture it? Hope you like paying for the same real estate twice!
Jayjay
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Ukraine possibly using Storm Shadow cruise missiles (allegedly, could be some other weapon too) to hit targets in Luhansk:
Seems effective. Decoy targets were used to overwhelm the air defense. What this means is that Russia will have more problems with logistics. Meanwhile, Ukraine has also made slight gains NW and SW of Bakhmut, pushing Russians back a little bit and easing the pressure on the supply lines to the eastern parts of the city.
Russia controls most of Bakhmut, but Ukraine seems to have held on to a small sliver so that they can technically claim that "Bakhmut holds". Taking back the city would require the same kind of intensive urban, block-by-block fighting that Russia has been doing for the past several months, so I don't think Ukraine can do it at least not quickly.
Seems effective. Decoy targets were used to overwhelm the air defense. What this means is that Russia will have more problems with logistics. Meanwhile, Ukraine has also made slight gains NW and SW of Bakhmut, pushing Russians back a little bit and easing the pressure on the supply lines to the eastern parts of the city.
Russia controls most of Bakhmut, but Ukraine seems to have held on to a small sliver so that they can technically claim that "Bakhmut holds". Taking back the city would require the same kind of intensive urban, block-by-block fighting that Russia has been doing for the past several months, so I don't think Ukraine can do it at least not quickly.
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
Would it not be possible to surround the city and cut the troops inside it off? It seems to me that the city itself isn't much of a strategic prize, since it has been largely depopulated and destroyed.
T.G.G. Moogly
Traditional Atheist
Leave the Rashists time to make a speedy advance to the rear. They've shown themselves eminently capable in that regard. If those units think they're going to be cut off they will advance like hell.
Jayjay
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Keep an eye out for propaganda videos where Russia boasts sending massive amounts of tanks, ammunition and other supplies to defend Bakhmut (or any other area of the front line). That's how you know they're about to retreat.
Jayjay
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I'll repeat what I said a few months ago: Ukraine probably can't make large movements, simply because Russia is too entrenched, and Ukraine's got its own deficiencies, namely lack of artillery shells. But if they can make even small advances, it'll have a huge impact on morale on both sides, which in turn could lead to Russia withdrawing from some areas, or having even more issues with desertions, political back-stabbings and such.
Recent strikes against targets inside Russia, the delivery and maybe even use of British cruise missiles, and Ukraine pushing the frontlines back in Bakhmut are this kind of small victories, especially because they are all happening at the same time. It will be interesting to see if Ukraine can maintain the pressure, or if Russia will get its act together and be able to stop them.
Recent strikes against targets inside Russia, the delivery and maybe even use of British cruise missiles, and Ukraine pushing the frontlines back in Bakhmut are this kind of small victories, especially because they are all happening at the same time. It will be interesting to see if Ukraine can maintain the pressure, or if Russia will get its act together and be able to stop them.
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
Ukraine has put off any big operations until material and munititons in the pipeline actually arrive. Zelensky has stated Ukraine could start the long awaited offensive now, but it would be very costly personel wise.
In the pipeline are large numbers of ground launched small diameter bombs. A Ukranian site has just published a map of 200 Crimean Russian military targets. I would expect Ukraine will start taking out Russian assets and cutting the train and highways to Crimea. And the Kersh bridge. Ukraine has trained 10,000 drone operaters and will be attacking Russian trenches mercilessly. To the North, GLSDBs can be used to destroy rail lines, bridges and roads supplying Russian forces.
An American general has stated Russian air defense systems actually work pretty well, when manned by Ukrainians.
It looks like when this offensive gets going, it is going to be a war of advanced capability artillery, rockets, and drones. Avoiding raw infantry attacks.
In the pipeline are large numbers of ground launched small diameter bombs. A Ukranian site has just published a map of 200 Crimean Russian military targets. I would expect Ukraine will start taking out Russian assets and cutting the train and highways to Crimea. And the Kersh bridge. Ukraine has trained 10,000 drone operaters and will be attacking Russian trenches mercilessly. To the North, GLSDBs can be used to destroy rail lines, bridges and roads supplying Russian forces.
An American general has stated Russian air defense systems actually work pretty well, when manned by Ukrainians.
It looks like when this offensive gets going, it is going to be a war of advanced capability artillery, rockets, and drones. Avoiding raw infantry attacks.
Since the city was evacuated Ukraine has no reason to even attempt to retake it. Surround and move on, let the cut-off troops wither--actually, they'll retreat before the encirclement is complete and they'll get butchered as they try to make their way out.
Last time they did not show themselves capable in that regard--they made a clumsy advance to the rear through a shooting gallery. An orderly movement to the rear is a hard maneuver to execute and not something I would expect them to have trained for.
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
Sounds like a good tactic. From the Ukranians. "Dig in or attack and we will kill you. Leave peacefully and we will let you live." Of course then the poor mobiks have to face their own Russian military police units trying to prevent them from leaving.
TomC
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According to people who know far more about this stuff than I care to know,
Russia lost at least 5 sophisticated aircraft in less than a day yesterday, over Russian territory. They couldn't entirely rule out malfunction or friendly fire, but 5 in a few hours? Good day for Ukraine.
Hey Putin, stick that in your barbos and suck it.
Tom
Russia lost at least 5 sophisticated aircraft in less than a day yesterday, over Russian territory. They couldn't entirely rule out malfunction or friendly fire, but 5 in a few hours? Good day for Ukraine.
Hey Putin, stick that in your barbos and suck it.
Tom
Copernicus
Industrial Grade Linguist
One complication for Russians regarding orderly retreats is that they may then be targeted by Russian troops to the rear. Prigozhin himself boasts about killing Russian soldiers who are fleeing their positions.
Jayjay
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Clearly, Russia is winning. They've probably downed more of their own planes than Ukraine has.
In other news, the Luhansk strikes were confirmed to be done by Storm Shadow cruise missiles:
Harry Bosch
Contributor
Yea, not suprising that Russia is winning in the short term. They have 5 times the men and arms. But here's the question: who do you think will be winning in 5 years. In 5 years Ukraine will be a modern NATO member with a healthy economy and government. They'll be doing brisk trade with Europe and in good shape. Russia in 5 years will be a shithole.