How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Cheerful Charlie]

From Yahoo News. U.S. emw drones are in use in Ukraine. Another game changer?

....
An image has emerged that strongly suggests the Ukrainian military has received and is now employing U.S.-made ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoys, or MALDs. All of the variants of the MALD are essentially small cruise missiles used to deceive enemy air defenses, not attack them kinetically. Depending on the exact variant, these decoys can be used to jam enemy radars or otherwise trick their operators into thinking threats are approaching from various directions, in many cases drawing defenders' attention and resources away from actual incoming threats.
.....

 

[Copernicus]

I'm talking about how nations get themselves into really long wars and then can't get themselves out even when they know they can't win. The US and Europe are not going to quit, especially not after committing so much effort and resources to supporting Ukraine.

The US and Europe aren't at war in Ukraine.

I never said that they were in the technical sense that you mean. You mean that the soldiers fighting are Ukrainian, but the West is funding the war and will increasingly be the main supplier of materiel in the future. Without their support, particularly in sanctions against Russia, Ukraine would likely not be able to defend against eventual defeat. The US supplies roughly $77 billion in military aide, whereas Europe's combined aid is $55 billion. So, although no NATO troops are fighting, both the US and Europe have gotten themselves committed as allies of Ukraine. Bear in mind that the Afghan war wasn't all that different. Most of the fighting was done by Afghans with significant financial and logistical support from the US and some allies.

Countries That Have Sent the Most Aid to Ukraine​

They're bankrolling Ukraine, who are at war; They're providing Ukraine with weapons systems that are not usually exported, at least not outside NATO; and they're cheering from the sidelines. But they're not at war, so they're not in a position where quitting is even a possibility.

Again, you are reading something more into my post than what I actually said. What did it mean when I said that the US and Europe had gotten themselves into this war? That they had become combatants? That isn't what I said. From a political perspective, politicians in the US and Europe are committed to the point where they can't just walk away. Even Donald Trump is at least mouthing support for Ukraine in his backhanded way, although that would likely end if he managed to return to power. A win for him in 2024 would be a major victory for Putin.

If they decided to stop helping Ukraine in their national defence, Ukraine would keep on fighting. They'd just be fighting against longer odds. But they demonstrated in the early days of the invasion that they are prepared to fight against an enemy that almost everyone thinks will crush them like a bug; And that they can avoid that fate against the Russians, who aren't anywhere near as powerful as we all thought they were back in February of 2022.

Ukraine alone would face considerably longer odds than you think. At best, they would be fighting insurgent guerilla actions in an occupied country. Russia would look a lot more powerful without all of the financial and moral support it gets from NATO countries. I think that everyone knows that, including the Ukrainians. Most of Russia's empire has been built by overwhelming nations that were fighting for their lives. What we are witnessing is historically standard operating procedure for them--apply overwhelming force to assimilate neighboring territories. They tried this in Poland after WWI to recover a lost piece of their empire and were repelled. They went back and retook that piece with Hitler's help, only to lose it again to Hitler's betrayal of their alliance. After WWII, they owned all of Poland until it slipped away in the collapse of the Soviet empire.

 

[Elixir]

Even Donald Trump is at least mouthing support for Ukraine in his backhanded way, although that would likely end if he managed to return to power. A win for him in 2024 would be a major victory for Putin.

Yeah, I have been wondering if Cheato’s defeat would be the last straw for Putin’s dreams of victory in Ukraine. I think that at that point he might negotiate or withdraw. Of course this assumes that he can see through Cheato’s inevitable screams of election fraud that will of course follow his defeat no matter how big the margin*.

* Do any of our trumpsters want to offer another round of “he will concede if he loses”, like y’all did last time? Remember how THAT worked out?

I’m telling you right now; the corrupt piece of shit will never admit defeat no matter what.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I’m telling you right now; the corrupt piece of shit will never admit defeat no matter what.

Only because that would be the end of a very lucrative revenue stream. It's the only reason he does it. Is the Ukraine war making Poostain richer? Probably.

 

[SLD]

Sounds like Lukashenko is ill. He wasn’t looking so good in Moscow at the Victory Day parade, had to be driven around, skipped a Putin lunch and has since checked into a hospital in Minsk.
Would be nice if he died.

Possible serious MI. Potentially in a coma.

how would this influence the outcome? What if Russia were to lose a key partner. New leadership takes over and seeks rapprochement with the west. Tries to join NATO?

 

[Jayjay]

Sounds like Lukashenko is ill. He wasn’t looking so good in Moscow at the Victory Day parade, had to be driven around, skipped a Putin lunch and has since checked into a hospital in Minsk.
Would be nice if he died.

Possible serious MI. Potentially in a coma.

how would this influence the outcome? What if Russia were to lose a key partner. New leadership takes over and seeks rapprochement with the west. Tries to join NATO?

And how would this "new leadership" take over with Russian army crawling all over the country?

A Kremlin-appointed new leader is much more likely. And even if Lukashenko was in Putin's pocket, that was more due to circumstances and his own game. His replacement will be a 100% Kremlin loyalist who is installed to see over transition of Belarus from an independent country to a region of the Russian federation.

I wonder if there is anyone left in Belarusian government or military who'd fight back?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

I wonder if there is anyone left in Belarusian government or military who'd fight back?

There have been reports of sabotage in Belarus so there are least a few people who don't want to live in Shitholeistan.

 

[Elixir]

And how would this "new leadership" take over with Russian army crawling all over the country?

As long as we’re dreaming, maybe by inviting the rank and file to stay, and offering asylum and freedom from the Putin death machine?

 

[Copernicus]

Sounds like Lukashenko is ill. He wasn’t looking so good in Moscow at the Victory Day parade, had to be driven around, skipped a Putin lunch and has since checked into a hospital in Minsk.
Would be nice if he died.

Possible serious MI. Potentially in a coma.

how would this influence the outcome? What if Russia were to lose a key partner. New leadership takes over and seeks rapprochement with the west. Tries to join NATO?

And how would this "new leadership" take over with Russian army crawling all over the country?

A Kremlin-appointed new leader is much more likely. And even if Lukashenko was in Putin's pocket, that was more due to circumstances and his own game. His replacement will be a 100% Kremlin loyalist who is installed to see over transition of Belarus from an independent country to a region of the Russian federation.

I wonder if there is anyone left in Belarusian government or military who'd fight back?

Lukashenko, like most dictators, has not left any clear line of succession to his rule, so a power struggle is inevitable. Putin will pick the puppet he feels is most likely to be successful at suppressing dissent--probably a general from the military. He may even try to annex the country outright, since it is historically a part of the Russian/Soviet empires. The Belarusian military won't likely put up resistance to their Russian occupiers, and Putin has wanted to use them to attack Ukraine. Lukashenko seems to have been successful in keeping Belarus out of direct involvement in that war, although he had little choice but to host Russian troops. We may start seeing Belarusian soldiers on the front lines. It's even possible that Putin is having Lukashenko poisoned. That would help with his manpower problem.

 

[TomC]

The Belarussian military won't likely put up resistance to their Russian occupiers, and Putin has wanted to use them to attack Ukraine. Lukashenko seems to have been successful in keeping Belarus out of direct involvement in that war, although he had little choice but to host Russian troops.

So, Lukashenko's unfortunate demise would help out Putin's plans. And now Lukashenko is very ill?

How... surprising?
Tom

 

[Copernicus]

The Belarussian military won't likely put up resistance to their Russian occupiers, and Putin has wanted to use them to attack Ukraine. Lukashenko seems to have been successful in keeping Belarus out of direct involvement in that war, although he had little choice but to host Russian troops.

So, Lukashenko's unfortunate demise would help out Putin's plans. And now Lukashenko is very ill?

How... surprising?
Tom

Well, I'm just speculating, of course. But Lukashenko did fall ill on a visit to Moscow. I wonder if he had sent out his underwear to be washed.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I wonder how long this will go on with Russia razing Ukraine until NATO officially has to say "Enough!" I do not see this genocidal scorched earth strategy being tolerable for 5 more long years.

But they want to ensure there's no direct NATO-Russia conflict because that could easily spiral into WWIII.

The status quo is horrible--but the alternative could be worse.

 

[Tigers!]

The Belarussian military won't likely put up resistance to their Russian occupiers, and Putin has wanted to use them to attack Ukraine. Lukashenko seems to have been successful in keeping Belarus out of direct involvement in that war, although he had little choice but to host Russian troops.

So, Lukashenko's unfortunate demise would help out Putin's plans. And now Lukashenko is very ill?

How... surprising?
Tom

Well, I'm just speculating, of course. But Lukashenko did fall ill on a visit to Moscow. I wonder if he had sent out his underwear to be washed.

Or touched a door handle

 

[Ford]

I wonder how long this will go on with Russia razing Ukraine until NATO officially has to say "Enough!" I do not see this genocidal scorched earth strategy being tolerable for 5 more long years.

But they want to ensure there's no direct NATO-Russia conflict because that could easily spiral into WWIII.

The status quo is horrible--but the alternative could be worse.

A direct conventional NATO-Russia conflict would be brief. Vlad can barely fly a kite over Ukraine without it getting shot at. If NATO decided to merely commit to a no-fly zone there's nothing Putin could do except ground his planes and hide them in bunkers.

Unfortunately if faced with this, Pooty might dust off his nukes...because that's all he'd have left that could stand up to "the West."

 

[TV and credit cards]

I wonder how long this will go on with Russia razing Ukraine until NATO officially has to say "Enough!" I do not see this genocidal scorched earth strategy being tolerable for 5 more long years.

But they want to ensure there's no direct NATO-Russia conflict because that could easily spiral into WWIII.

The status quo is horrible--but the alternative could be worse.

Our forever crutch for not doing the right thing at the right time.
We create these authoritarian monsters with our free trade and globalization policies, feeding western knowledge and technology into the very systems that will later be used against us when these belligerents act in the way we always knew they would.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Even Donald Trump is at least mouthing support for Ukraine in his backhanded way, although that would likely end if he managed to return to power. A win for him in 2024 would be a major victory for Putin.

Were some odious Republican to take the White House, Russian forces are beat down enough now that European countries could probably push Ukraine across the finish line without the US. In fact, I think they would step up even more if need be. UK's not going to give up on Ukraine. Further, even a future Republican controlled congress would keep Trump or any Trump-like creature in check.

 

[Elixir]

a future Republican controlled congress would keep Trump or any Trump-like creature in check.

Not in evidence. If form was to hold, they would all would bow down to Cheato or be exorcised from Congress, unless something else were to change.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

If we had Trump re-elected and Congress controlled by thr GOP goblins, they would all go full tilt purple assed baboon wild.

 

[Copernicus]

I wonder how long this will go on with Russia razing Ukraine until NATO officially has to say "Enough!" I do not see this genocidal scorched earth strategy being tolerable for 5 more long years.

But they want to ensure there's no direct NATO-Russia conflict because that could easily spiral into WWIII.

The status quo is horrible--but the alternative could be worse.

Our forever crutch for not doing the right thing at the right time.
We create these authoritarian monsters with our free trade and globalization policies, feeding western knowledge and technology into the very systems that will later be used against us when these belligerents act in the way we always knew they would.

The problem is that we don't always know what the right thing or the right time are, and Loren is absolutely right that the alternative could be worse than the status quo. It is worth remembering that NATO is not a strictly hierarchical organization. It is a large defense coalition made up of diverse national interests. The US is the single most powerful group in that coalition, but it cannot command everyone else to serve US interests. Nor can the president of the US unilaterally decide to send aid to Ukraine without convincing a lot of other people that the aid is in our national interest. OTOH, Putin can pretty much tell everyone in his country what he wants to do, and that is how we got in this mess in the first place. He made a simple choice that now, in hindsight, he probably realizes was a terrible blunder. He was warned, but he ignored the warnings.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

a future Republican controlled congress would keep Trump or any Trump-like creature in check.

Not in evidence. If form was to hold, they would all would bow down to Cheato or be exorcised from Congress, unless something else were to change.

The difference would be they wouldn't need to worry about Trump running again... probably.