How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Yea, not suprising that Russia is winning in the short term. They have 5 times the men and arms. But here's the question: who do you think will be winning in 5 years. In 5 years Ukraine will be a modern NATO member with a healthy economy and government. They'll be doing brisk trade with Europe and in good shape. Russia in 5 years will be a shithole.

Firstly I think Jayjay was being sarcastic. Secondly, you are absolutely right about Ukraine's future vs Shitholeistan.

 

[Rhea]

I agree with both JayJay’s humor in Russia winning at downing Russian planes, and also Harry’s prediction of the economic futures of the two countries.

 

[Ford]

I agree with both JayJay’s humor in Russia winning at downing Russian planes, and also Harry’s prediction of the economic futures of the two countries.

I'm not so sure about the latter. At least as far as Ukraine is concerned.

For now, Russia seems to have settled into a "long game" in Ukraine. This is partly out of necessity. They rather obviously overestimated their own capabilities and drastically underestimated Ukraine's ability and willingness to fight back. Putin thought it would be a long weekend, and it has turned into a very long year and counting. Putin's problem now is that he has to win. His regime and maybe even his life depends on it. He told his people that Ukraine needed to be rid of "Nazis," and hasn't stopped the propaganda despite the failure of his military to accomplish much more than holding onto territory he's been fighting over for 8 years. He can't back out and say "at least we've got Crimea and the eastern provinces!" So he's settled on a war of attrition. He's gonna keep mobilizing everything he's got to wear down Ukraine, but again...he can't just settle.

If nothing changes in the Kremlin, and Putin remains the chief of throwing opponents out of windows, this may be the beginning of the second year of a very long war. So long as he is alive and in power, it will continue.

As such, the 5-year clock to Ukraine being the model of a modern NATO country won't start until he's dead or living in exile somewhere. And every year the war continues adds time to that very optimistic 5-year time frame. Because since he has nothing to lose, he will continue to kill civilians, destroy civilian infrastructure, and exact a huge cost on Ukraine's ability to continue to be a functioning country. Total war.

Does this spell doom for Russia as well? Yes. The war has exposed the once-fearsome "Russian Bear" as weak. By the time it is finally settled Moscow will militarily be a shell of even what they were a year ago. China has to be laughing their asses off at this. If this were any other time in history and Russia didn't have nukes, rival nations that shared a border with them would be saying "that's a nice territory you have there. Be a shame if something happened to it..." When this is finally over, the UN should be able to reconsider whether Moscow deserves as seat a the grown-ups table. Because after this war ends, Russia will not. Not militarily, and not economically.

Question now is...how long will it be until this is over?

 

[Copernicus]

China would be happy if Putin's invasion had worked. Its failure calls into question the wisdom of China's bellicose moves against its own neighbors. And China is having a tough time figuring out whether it will be in their interest to overtly support Putin's war effort in the same way that the Western alliance is supporting Ukraine's. They don't want to destabilize their own economy to help Putin, especially if he is in an unwinnable situation.

 

[Jayjay]

China would be happy if Putin's invasion had worked. Its failure calls into question the wisdom of China's bellicose moves against its own neighbors. And China is having a tough time figuring out whether it will be in their interest to overtly support Putin's war effort in the same way that the Western alliance is supporting Ukraine's. They don't want to destabilize their own economy to help Putin, especially if he is in an unwinnable situation.

Not to mention that China benefits from cheap Russian crude, gas, and other raw materials. I don't think it's in China's interest to stop the war, but at the same time, it's not in China's interest to help Russia win the war either,

Xi has also sent some diplomats to Ukraine recently. I think that China's play might be to try to be the peacemaker between the two, like it did with KSA and Iran wrt Yemen. But it's also a long game because neither side is really ready for any kind of peace at the moment.

 

[Ford]

I think they'd have been happy had it worked, but now that it isn't? China is analyzing Russia's failures in much the same way they studied the fall of the Soviet Union and adjusted their own approach. When the Berlin Wall came down and the USSR broke up, Beijing looked at that and said "how can we avoid this?" It's not entirely accurate to say that Taiwan is to China what Ukraine is to Russia, but they're absolutely studying how Russia's attempted annexation of Ukraine has gone off the rails, and it is informing their plan (and I think we all can agree there's a plan) to bring Taiwan back into the fold. They are also measuring the west's response, and adding that info into their calculations.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

I wonder how long this will go on with Russia razing Ukraine until NATO officially has to say "Enough!" I do not see this genocidal scorched earth strategy being tolerable for 5 more long years.

 

[Copernicus]

I wonder how long this will go on with Russia razing Ukraine until NATO officially has to say "Enough!" I do not see this genocidal scorched earth strategy being tolerable for 5 more long years.

Yet the Afghan war went on for many years and cost us a great deal of our national treasure.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Yea, not suprising that Russia is winning in the short term. They have 5 times the men and arms. But here's the question: who do you think will be winning in 5 years. In 5 years Ukraine will be a modern NATO member with a healthy economy and government. They'll be doing brisk trade with Europe and in good shape. Russia in 5 years will be a shithole.

Russia largely failed at developing a tech based economy during the best of times. A population in decline made worse by the pandemic made worse by this war and a brain drain of young people. Putin's legacy will be leaving Russia overwhelmingly dependent upon selling their natural resources to survive for the foreseeable future.

 

[Patooka]

I wonder how long this will go on with Russia razing Ukraine until NATO officially has to say "Enough!" I do not see this genocidal scorched earth strategy being tolerable for 5 more long years.

Forever and a day. I know barbos is convinced Russia is fighting NATO forces in Ukraine, but that's a very big line to cross. Also, if NATO was really interested in stomping Russia into the ground they would have done so when those S-300 missiles landed in Poland. Yes I know they were Ukrainian missiles, but the fact remains that every single nation that forms NATO has invaded another country in their history on an even thinner pretext than that. They could have taken a page out of Vlad's book, lied about who launched the missiles, have some pundits back up the claim, mention the magical phrase "Oggle Boggle Article Fiveus" and bomb Russia into oblivion.

Simply put, if NATO wanted to kick Russia's arse, they already have the justification to do so. Which means they are comfortable with simply supplying Ukraine the equipment to humiliate them instead.

 

[Ford]

I wonder how long this will go on with Russia razing Ukraine until NATO officially has to say "Enough!" I do not see this genocidal scorched earth strategy being tolerable for 5 more long years.

Yet the Afghan war went on for many years and cost us a great deal of our national treasure.

Wait...are you talking about Russia or the US?

 

[barbos]

So yes, Russia technically invaded. But you are the one who provoked it. Responsibility is 100% on you.

Ah yes. The old "I didn't want to hit her, but she made me do it" defence, beloved of weak willed and cruel men who can't control their anger or their fists.

It's not going to get any sympathy for a man who beats his wife, and it sure as shit won't garner any for a nation that starts a war police action special military operation.

Your criminal regime installed nazi regime in Kiev which had been murdering its own population in Eastern Ukraine for 8 years, before Russia finally interfered.

 

[bilby]

So yes, Russia technically invaded. But you are the one who provoked it. Responsibility is 100% on you.

Ah yes. The old "I didn't want to hit her, but she made me do it" defence, beloved of weak willed and cruel men who can't control their anger or their fists.

It's not going to get any sympathy for a man who beats his wife, and it sure as shit won't garner any for a nation that starts a war police action special military operation.

Your criminal regime installed nazi regime in Kiev which had been murdering its own population in Eastern Ukraine for 8 years, before Russia finally interfered.

I don't have a criminal regime, and my country had three eighths of fuck-all influence on who formed government in Ukraine.

But even if this were all true, it still wouldn't justify invading a sovereign country.

And if it did, there's a long list of countries with criminal regimes that kill their own people, which you should be invading before you invade Ukraine. Why didn't Russia invade China on that basis?

Your excuses still sound like those of a man convinced that he was justified in beating his wife.

 

[Copernicus]

I wonder how long this will go on with Russia razing Ukraine until NATO officially has to say "Enough!" I do not see this genocidal scorched earth strategy being tolerable for 5 more long years.

Yet the Afghan war went on for many years and cost us a great deal of our national treasure.

Wait...are you talking about Russia or the US?

No, I'm talking about how nations get themselves into really long wars and then can't get themselves out even when they know they can't win. The US and Europe are not going to quit, especially not after committing so much effort and resources to supporting Ukraine. Russia won't quit, because so many men and so much of its military resources were sacrificed to reclaim what was perceived as lost Russian territory. The war may be unpopular in Russia, but that doesn't mean Russian politicians will be able to face their voters while admitting defeat. Just as the US looked desperately for a face-saving solution to leave Vietnam, Russia is looking desperately for a solution to end this war now. A ceasefire would be a win for them, if they could keep the spoils they have already seized from Ukraine.

 

[bilby]

I'm talking about how nations get themselves into really long wars and then can't get themselves out even when they know they can't win. The US and Europe are not going to quit, especially not after committing so much effort and resources to supporting Ukraine.

The US and Europe aren't at war in Ukraine.

They're bankrolling Ukraine, who are at war; They're providing Ukraine with weapons systems that are not usually exported, at least not outside NATO; and they're cheering from the sidelines. But they're not at war, so they're not in a position where quitting is even a possibility.

If they decided to stop helping Ukraine in their national defence, Ukraine would keep on fighting. They'd just be fighting against longer odds. But they demonstrated in the early days of the invasion that they are prepared to fight against an enemy that almost everyone thinks will crush them like a bug; And that they can avoid that fate against the Russians, who aren't anywhere near as powerful as we all thought they were back in February of 2022.

 

[Jayjay]

I wonder how long this will go on with Russia razing Ukraine until NATO officially has to say "Enough!" I do not see this genocidal scorched earth strategy being tolerable for 5 more long years.

Yet the Afghan war went on for many years and cost us a great deal of our national treasure.

Wait...are you talking about Russia or the US?

No, I'm talking about how nations get themselves into really long wars and then can't get themselves out even when they know they can't win. The US and Europe are not going to quit, especially not after committing so much effort and resources to supporting Ukraine.

Western countries are mostly democracies that are always going to be one election cycle away from quitting. And it's far easier than you think, because the people and the politicians in the west don't have the same kind of skin in the game as Ukrainians. European countries are already being rather stingy with donating Leopard 2 tanks, even if they have hundreds of them, and United States had to step in with Abrams.

Your reasoning applies mostly to US mentality. But even then, both republican front-runners for 2024 are on record saying they'd cut a deal with Putin.

Russia won't quit, because so many men and so much of its military resources were sacrificed to reclaim what was perceived as lost Russian territory. The war may be unpopular in Russia, but that doesn't mean Russian politicians will be able to face their voters while admitting defeat. Just as the US looked desperately for a face-saving solution to leave Vietnam, Russia is looking desperately for a solution to end this war now. A ceasefire would be a win for them, if they could keep the spoils they have already seized from Ukraine.

And prepare for the next round.

 

[Elixir]

both republican front-runners for 2024 are on record saying they'd cut a deal with Putin.

Yup. That’s another reason they need to lose, BIGLY.

And prepare for the next round.

Yup again. If Russia isn’t totally kneecapped at this point, they’ll be right back at it as soon as they can round up some more cannon fodder.

 

[laughing dog]

And if it did, there's a long list of countries with criminal regimes that kill their own people, which you should be invading before you invade Ukraine. Why didn't Russia invade China on that basis?

Actually, the closest and easiest target under barbosian logic is Russia.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Sounds like Lukashenko is ill. He wasn’t looking so good in Moscow at the Victory Day parade, had to be driven around, skipped a Putin lunch and has since checked into a hospital in Minsk.
Would be nice if he died.

 

[Jayjay]

Sounds like Lukashenko is ill. He wasn’t looking so good in Moscow at the Victory Day parade, had to be driven around, skipped a Putin lunch and has since checked into a hospital in Minsk.
Would be nice if he died.

When he does, I'm pretty sure that Belarus will simply be taken over by Russia. The Russian army is already in the country, and Kremlin will use the pretext of maintaining order to appoint their own man to the top.