How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

Ceasefire? I see the Ukrainians being assisted, covertly and perhaps otherwise in taking out Russia's means of production.

I don't see how that is possible without extensive attacks like the ones that Russia is attempting against Ukraine. Sabotage isn't going to do much to take out their means of production. Sanctions are more effective, because they make it harder for Russia to get the high tech components that it needs to manufacture its high tech weaponry.

 

[Jayjay]

Another missile strike seems imminent tonight. Interesting to see if the alleged damage to the Patriot system has degraded Kyiv's air defense, or if it's going to be just a repeat of yesterday.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Putin isn't going to count on his missile scientists for help, else he wouldn't be arresting them. Russian government really is dumber than directions on toilet paper.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Apparently, one of the Patriot missile systems was damaged during yesterday's attack. It my have to be removed and sent back for repair, leaving Ukraine with just one more for defense. OTOH, it may be possible to repair it. The vulnerability in the system is that it is stationary and uses radar, which gives the Russians an opportunity to locate and target it. It looks like one of the Kinzhals or other missiles did get through to cause some damage.

Patriot missile defense system in Ukraine likely damaged - US sources​

What I'm seeing about this is they successfully shot down all the missiles but there was some damage anyway--which probably means it was falling fragments. Chances are they won't have done much damage.

 

[Copernicus]

What I'm seeing about this is they successfully shot down all the missiles but there was some damage anyway--which probably means it was falling fragments. Chances are they won't have done much damage.

Since not all of the components of the system are concentrated in one place, a successful strike might not have been able to destroy it completely. I just don't know, and the Ukrainians aren't commenting. The Russians, of course, will claim that the whole thing was destroyed.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The forerunner of Patriot was Improved Hawk. The system had all the same components which were connected by cables. Hawk could fire on command or could fire automatically on targets. That was up to the people running the show. The army tried to make Hawk a shoot and scoot asset but it was just too difficult because the system was sophisticated. Patriot is likely even much more sophisticated.

As for the footprint of Patriot is does have more launchers with more missiles but probably contains the same components that Hawk possessed. If a launcher or even an entire section of launchers is destroyed the system will still operate. But if the command center is hit or acquisition radars then it's game over for the system.

It sounds like nothing critical was damaged but that is just a matter of luck. The following article seems to confirm as much.

Impossible to destroy Patriot system with Kinzhal missile – Air Force Spokesperson

 

[Jayjay]

By the looks of it, Russia did not continue its attack on Kyiv, but rather hit Odessa and various targets elsewhere.

I think this is the final confirmation that the Patriot system was not severely damaged, or at least even Russians themselves don't think so; otherwise they would have repeated the barrage on now-defenseless capital. Or maybe they ran out of Kinzhals.

(EDITED TO ADD: Or maybe Russia did attempt to attack Kyiv again, but all the missiles were shot down.)

That's not to say that this isn't still pretty damn fucked up. People die almost daily in these attacks, and Ukraine can do little about it because they don't have enough AD assets for every city.

The forerunner of Patriot was Improved Hawk. The system had all the same components which were connected by cables. Hawk could fire on command or could fire automatically on targets. That was up to the people running the show. The army tried to make Hawk a shoot and scoot asset but it was just too difficult because the system was sophisticated. Patriot is likely even much more sophisticated.

As for the footprint of Patriot is does have more launchers with more missiles but probably contains the same components that Hawk possessed. If a launcher or even an entire section of launchers is destroyed the system will still operate. But if the command center is hit or acquisition radars then it's game over for the system.

It sounds like nothing critical was damaged but that is just a matter of luck. The following article seems to confirm as much.

Impossible to destroy Patriot system with Kinzhal missile – Air Force Spokesperson

Wouldn't the obvious solution to these problems be:

1) Having a backup radar(s) ready to go online if the main one is hit?
2) Keeping the command vehicle mobile or more well-protected than the rest? All it needs is an antenna to connect to the radar and launchers, it doesn't need to be in the open.

 

[bilby]

Keeping the command vehicle mobile or more well-protected than the rest? All it needs is an antenna to connect to the radar and launchers

I would use cables. Radiating EM is a good way to help the enemy target you (and presumably at least a part of the reason for having the radars separated from the other components of the system).

 

[TV and credit cards]

Wouldn't the obvious solution to these problems be:

1) Having a backup radar(s) ready to go online if the main one is hit?

Redundancy is standard practice where practical. On ships there are A and B channel data comms (cabling) running on opposite sides of the ship. Integration of radar returns from various sources that provides the best composite picture. In a battle group, one ship controlling and assigning a particular ship and particular weapon system to a particular threat. If one system is degraded, another may be assigned.
I'm sure they are attempting to provide something similar for the skies over Ukraine to the extent possible with what resources they have. For US/NATO forces, I believe Link 16 is what is currently used. My guess is SpaceX/Starshield will be it's successor.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Apparently, one of the Patriot missile systems was damaged during yesterday's attack. It my have to be removed and sent back for repair, leaving Ukraine with just one more for defense. OTOH, it may be possible to repair it. The vulnerability in the system is that it is stationary and uses radar, which gives the Russians an opportunity to locate and target it. It looks like one of the Kinzhals or other missiles did get through to cause some damage.

Patriot missile defense system in Ukraine likely damaged - US sources​

What I'm seeing about this is they successfully shot down all the missiles but there was some damage anyway--which probably means it was falling fragments. Chances are they won't have done much damage.

According to this morning's ISW report, you are correct.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Wouldn't the obvious solution to these problems be:

1) Having a backup radar(s) ready to go online if the main one is hit?
2) Keeping the command vehicle mobile or more well-protected than the rest? All it needs is an antenna to connect to the radar and launchers, it doesn't need to be in the open.

Improved hawk used tracking and illuminator radars to fire on the target. These radars could also be used in an acquisition mode but the area of search was much limited. One would have to know the general direction of attack to be effective. Back up acquisition radar is a cost decision. The Hawk had two acquisition radars, one continuous wave and one pulse. No doubt Patriot is much improved.

There are other air defense systems that overlap Patriot, close in and beyond. Along with aircraft overhead the object is to control the skies entirely. Taking a hit on site is to be avoided at all costs, obviously. Not sure hardening a Patriot site would make a lot of sense.

 

[barbos]

I think this is the final confirmation that the Patriot system was not severely damaged, or at least even Russians themselves don't think so

LOL, such a convoluted logic. One would think you would learn already that Russians usually take their time to assess the damage before planning another strike.

 

[barbos]

Another missile strike seems imminent tonight. Interesting to see if the alleged damage to the Patriot system has degraded Kyiv's air defense, or if it's going to be just a repeat of yesterday.

Alleged? I understand Pentagon admitted one launcher was utterly "dissassembled". Another one was partially dissassembled and can be repaired and one unharmed. Russians report way more damage, including damage to radar. Ukrainian Bob reports Russia launched thousands of kinzhals and all of them were defeated by the glorious ukrainian warriors with the help of glorious patriot systems.

Regardless of the damage, one thing can not be denied and that is the fact that ukro-nato patriot system launched 30 (!!!) missiles to defeat it seems 2 Kinzhals (among few ordinary cruise missiles). It failed, because at least one did hit it. I repeat 30 missiles. Poor bastard who recorded and published that video was already apprehended by Gestapo, no worry, no more such embarrassment for Raytheon.

 

[barbos]

The "hypersonic" Kinzhal missiles apparently aren't nearly as good as advertised. Patriot seems to be able to shoot them down quite reliably, and if one or two got through, they apparently weren't accurate enough to destroy the launchers, only damage them.

Says who?

 

[SLD]

I think this is the final confirmation that the Patriot system was not severely damaged, or at least even Russians themselves don't think so

LOL, such a convoluted logic. One would think you would learn already that Russians usually take their time to assess the damage before planning another strike.

Hey, Barbos! How are things in Bakhmut? Wonder if it’s been reported that Prig offered the Ukrainians territory in exchange for land? Counterattacks in both the north and south have pushed Russian forces back several hundred meters. Do you think that Russia will ever take Bakhmut? Even so, it’s several hundred kilometers away from Kiev. Good luck with defeating Ukraine anytime soon! Especially since they’re about to get the hardware from the west. Should be fun.

 

[barbos]

Hey, Barbos! How are things in Bakhmut?

Fine, Wagner is slowly moving ahead, ukrainioan idiots are dying in great numbers. Prigozhin apparently is being slowly thrown under the bus by the russian government.

 

[barbos]

Even so, it’s several hundred kilometers away from Kiev. Good luck with defeating Ukraine anytime soon!

Thanks, it would have been better if you had stopped sending these imbeciles weapons.

 

[barbos]

By the way, don't know if that was mentioned here (most likely not, not in this cesspool of idiocy).
It was explained that ukrainians are constantly exaggerating number and scale of russian aerial attacks. So let say 10 targets were hit, and it's really hard to deny, so they say "1000 missiles were launched and 990 were shot down" Your stupid press repeats that and create completely different impression of ukrainian forces. Then your stupid analysts come and say " based on our calculations Russia will run out of missiles tomorrow". Russia obviously does not run out of missiles. So your stupid analysts send your stupid journalist/spy to Ekatirinburg to ask workers about missiles production numbers and stupid fuck goes there and gets immediately arrested.

Fucking Idiots!

 

[Jayjay]

Another missile strike seems imminent tonight. Interesting to see if the alleged damage to the Patriot system has degraded Kyiv's air defense, or if it's going to be just a repeat of yesterday.

Alleged? I understand Pentagon admitted one launcher was utterly "dissassembled". Another one was partially dissassembled and can be repaired and one unharmed.

Source?

Regardless of the damage, one thing can not be denied and that is the fact that ukro-nato patriot system launched 30 (!!!) missiles to defeat it seems 2 Kinzhals (among few ordinary cruise missiles). It failed, because at least one did hit it. I repeat 30 missiles. Poor bastard who recorded and published that video was already apprehended by Gestapo, no worry, no more such embarrassment for Raytheon.

32 sounds more likely than 30, given that PAC-3 batteries come in multiples of 16 (but that's neither here nor there). The cost to shoot down Russian missiles is great, but it would be even greater cost to let them hit hospitals, apartment buildings, power infrastructure and so on. The fact that there were no civilian casualties is a success in my book.

And right now it seems even the one missile that got through was a miss, because it did not do any permanent damage. It hardly matters if Ukraine downed 2 or 6 Kinzhals, it's still pretty lame for a "wunderwaffe" that was advertised to be impossible to shoot down by any western system.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Russia bragged its hypersonic missiles could not be stopped. Ukraine has demonstrated that is BS. Russia just arrested its hypersonic missile designers for their failure.