How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[T.G.G. Moogly]

He was warned, but he ignored the warnings.

Was he warned by anyone in the Kremlin? Out of fear for their lives and their stolen fortunes his lieutenants were nothing more than yes men. Had they not been they would never have been in the positions they held. Hence the Ukraine debacle.

Stalin dealt with Zhukov after WW2 by relegating him to an obscure post where he had no more power.

If anything, Poostain is a mobster like Al Capone, someone who's ruthless, political and perhaps even clever but certainly not a person known for being intelligent. Poostain sits at the same table with other state leaders because he controls resources and has nukes. It ain't because he is respected for his ideas and his intellect.

 

[Jayjay]

Most world leaders aren't in their positions because of their "ideas and intellect". Even less so in democracies.

 

[Copernicus]

Most world leaders aren't in their positions because of their "ideas and intellect". Even less so in democracies.

That's too cynical for me. I think that we get a mixture of good, bad, and mediocre leaders. Obama had both ideas and intellect, even if he wasn't always able to act on them. People sometimes vote for politicians because they are capable of inspiring them and giving them hope. Bad leaders like Putin and Trump play on fear and hatred in their climb to power. Zelensky used his TV persona to sell Ukrainians on the idea of clean government, and he is both smart and well-educated.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Just watched a stream of the Russian May 9 victory parade. Very short. No aircraft flying overhead. One, count them, one solitary tank. 20 or so military vehicles. Putin looks like he is aging badly. The marching ranks were not very numerous. Makes everybody wonder, WTF? It was sort of like all the joy has gone out of these sorts of propaganda spectacles. It sort of feels like, "Oh hell, let's get this over with". It was not a happy occasion.

 

[Elixir]

The difference would be they wouldn't need to worry about Trump running again... probably.

If Trump is re-installed, NOBODY will need to worry about running again - at least until he croaks.

 

[Elixir]

Just watched a stream of the Russian May 9 victory parade. Very short. No aircraft flying overhead. One, count them, one solitary tank. 20 or so military vehicles. Putin looks like he is aging badly. The marching ranks were not very numerous. Makes everybody wonder, WTF? It was sort of like all the joy has gone out of these sorts of propaganda spectacles. It sort of feels like, "Oh hell, let's get this over with". It was not a happy occasion.

Good.

 

[Elixir]

Most world leaders aren't in their positions because of their "ideas and intellect". Even less so in democracies.

That’s why democracies have checks on leaders’ power. Leaders of democracies have to be more careful about stuff like defenestrations than leaders of full on autocracies. .

 

[Jayjay]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/16/politics/patriot-missile-damage-ukraine/index.html

Ukraine currently has two Patriot air defense systems in country, one donated by the US and the other donated jointly by Germany and the Netherlands. It is unclear which of those systems was potentially damaged, but taking one out of commission – even for a short period – could affect Ukraine’s ability to defend Kyiv amid intensifying Russian missile attacks.


Russia has targeted the Patriot systems with hypersonic missiles before, US officials told CNN last week, including once on May 4. That attack failed, and Ukrainians successfully intercepted the missile before it could hit the Patriot, the officials said.


After extensive lobbying by the Ukrainians to provide them with the sophisticated air defense system, the US spent 10 weeks training Ukrainian troops on how to maintain and operate it. US and western officials were pleasantly surprised by how quickly the Ukrainians learned how to operate the Patriots, which arrived in Ukraine last month.


Another US official said it is possible that the missile barrage hit one of the Patriot battery’s several components. A complete Patriot battery has six major components: generators, a radar set, a control station, antennas, a launcher station and interceptor missiles. The components operate together to fire a Patriot missile and successfully guide it to its target.

The "hypersonic" Kinzhal missiles apparently aren't nearly as good as advertised. Patriot seems to be able to shoot them down quite reliably, and if one or two got through, they apparently weren't accurate enough to destroy the launchers, only damage them.

I think the right response here would be to announce delivery of couple of more Patriot systems to Ukraine. Send a message that even if Russia may have managed to hit one, there's plenty more coming.

 

[TV and credit cards]

CIA urges Russians to get in touch.

published on the CIA's official YouTube channel and the Telegram messaging app

contact could take place securely via Tor

Help build a better Russia.

 

[Jayjay]

Can't wait for Russians to make their own recruitment video in response.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I wonder how long this will go on with Russia razing Ukraine until NATO officially has to say "Enough!" I do not see this genocidal scorched earth strategy being tolerable for 5 more long years.

But they want to ensure there's no direct NATO-Russia conflict because that could easily spiral into WWIII.

The status quo is horrible--but the alternative could be worse.

A direct conventional NATO-Russia conflict would be brief. Vlad can barely fly a kite over Ukraine without it getting shot at. If NATO decided to merely commit to a no-fly zone there's nothing Putin could do except ground his planes and hide them in bunkers.

Unfortunately if faced with this, Pooty might dust off his nukes...because that's all he'd have left that could stand up to "the West."

A no-fly zone would require considerable strikes into Russia to dismantle the SAMs that can reach into Ukraine.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Most world leaders aren't in their positions because of their "ideas and intellect". Even less so in democracies.

That's too cynical for me. I think that we get a mixture of good, bad, and mediocre leaders. Obama had both ideas and intellect, even if he wasn't always able to act on them. People sometimes vote for politicians because they are capable of inspiring them and giving them hope. Bad leaders like Putin and Trump play on fear and hatred in their climb to power. Zelensky used his TV persona to sell Ukrainians on the idea of clean government, and he is both smart and well-educated.

Inspire and give them hope is charisma, not intelligence.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The difference would be they wouldn't need to worry about Trump running again... probably.

If Trump is re-installed, NOBODY will need to worry about running again - at least until he croaks.

There would still be elections, they would just be mostly rigged.

 

[Copernicus]

Most world leaders aren't in their positions because of their "ideas and intellect". Even less so in democracies.

That's too cynical for me. I think that we get a mixture of good, bad, and mediocre leaders. Obama had both ideas and intellect, even if he wasn't always able to act on them. People sometimes vote for politicians because they are capable of inspiring them and giving them hope. Bad leaders like Putin and Trump play on fear and hatred in their climb to power. Zelensky used his TV persona to sell Ukrainians on the idea of clean government, and he is both smart and well-educated.

Inspire and give them hope is charisma, not intelligence.

Charisma and intelligence are not mutually exclusive, and one could argue that intelligence is usually part of what gives people charisma. Obama was able to give them inspiration and hope because of his intellect, ideas, and ability to speak clearly. Trump had charisma for his supporters, too, but his charisma came from his celebrity and skill at demagoguery. Unlike Obama, Trump was not well-educated, but he wasn't as stupid as he liked to pretend, either. He knew how to whip up a following without actually having a detailed plan or strategy for running the government.

 

[Copernicus]

Apparently, one of the Patriot missile systems was damaged during yesterday's attack. It my have to be removed and sent back for repair, leaving Ukraine with just one more for defense. OTOH, it may be possible to repair it. The vulnerability in the system is that it is stationary and uses radar, which gives the Russians an opportunity to locate and target it. It looks like one of the Kinzhals or other missiles did get through to cause some damage.

Patriot missile defense system in Ukraine likely damaged - US sources​

 

[Jayjay]

I wonder how long this will go on with Russia razing Ukraine until NATO officially has to say "Enough!" I do not see this genocidal scorched earth strategy being tolerable for 5 more long years.

But they want to ensure there's no direct NATO-Russia conflict because that could easily spiral into WWIII.

The status quo is horrible--but the alternative could be worse.

A direct conventional NATO-Russia conflict would be brief. Vlad can barely fly a kite over Ukraine without it getting shot at. If NATO decided to merely commit to a no-fly zone there's nothing Putin could do except ground his planes and hide them in bunkers.

Unfortunately if faced with this, Pooty might dust off his nukes...because that's all he'd have left that could stand up to "the West."

A no-fly zone would require considerable strikes into Russia to dismantle the SAMs that can reach into Ukraine.

Indeed. Which is one reason why I think the notion of a "mere" no-fly zone in context of this war is silly. It would be equivalent to full-on joining the war, nothing "mere" about it.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia reportedly trying to destroy bridges west of Bakhmut. This will inconvenience Ukraine, but also means Russia probably doesn't have plans to go much further than Bakhmut. Usually it's the withdrawing army that destroys bridges to slow down the enemy.

Ceasefire in 6 months?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Excalber 155 mm rounds, HIMARs, and drones can easily fly over rivers.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Russia reportedly trying to destroy bridges west of Bakhmut. This will inconvenience Ukraine, but also means Russia probably doesn't have plans to go much further than Bakhmut. Usually it's the withdrawing army that destroys bridges to slow down the enemy.

Ceasefire in 6 months?

So you think Russia will be completely out of Ukraine in six months? A bold prediction but I like it.

Unless Ukraine does something to screw this all up, it looks to me like they will have a steady supply of arms from the EU and US for as long as they need it.
GB is training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s. France is sending SCALP-EGs to Ukraine, which are identical to the British Storm Shadows except they don't work on weekends.
I know GB is not going to give up on this opportunity to beat up on Russia. A government assassinates a British citizen on British soil, they tend to take that personally.

Ceasefire? I see the Ukrainians being assisted, covertly and perhaps otherwise in taking out Russia's means of production.

 

[Jayjay]

Russia reportedly trying to destroy bridges west of Bakhmut. This will inconvenience Ukraine, but also means Russia probably doesn't have plans to go much further than Bakhmut. Usually it's the withdrawing army that destroys bridges to slow down the enemy.

Ceasefire in 6 months?

So you think Russia will be completely out of Ukraine in six months? A bold prediction but I like it.

Haha. While it was a bit snarky, the current advances seem to have given Ukraine a better defensive position around Bakhmut, but the chances of Urkaine making any major progress in liberating their territories is still rather small. There are still the European and American tanks to consider, as well as F-16, so Ukraine does have a few more cards to play.

So, my 6 month prediction was how long it will take for Ukraine to try and fail to take back their territory, and it might be the minimum time required for them to want peace. Russia bombing the bridges shows that they don't expect to make any gains either and would probably be willing to cut their losses already now.

Let's see in December how my prediction turned out.

Ceasefire? I see the Ukrainians being assisted, covertly and perhaps otherwise in taking out Russia's means of production.

I wish.