How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

Stalin forced through an Industrial Revolution, and then the Cold War demanded that they have a Technological Revolution too, but these weren't organic developments by a people who were actively modernising, they were "cargo cult" revolutions imposed by a dictatorship that was desperate to keep up with the Jones's.

According to historian Timothy Snyder in his book  Bloodlands, one of the major reasons for Stalin's murder of millions of Ukrainian farmers through mass starvation in the  Holodomor was to force a system of collective farming on them and drive much of the rural population into the cities as an industry workforce. The Russian Communists had always felt that their revolution would start in an industrialized nation, especially Germany, which had an active Communist movement. Russia had a largely agricultural economy, which did not work well for their ideological goals. So they had hoped to expand their revolution to the industrialized Western Europe, and this was one of reasons that Stalin wanted to come to some accommodation with Hitler before the inevitable clash. The Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact was part of that strategy. Like WWI, WWII was largely a competition between the German-dominated and Russian-dominated empires to expand into each other's territories.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Genocide in Ukraine.
.....
As Russia stumbles towards inevitable defeat in Ukraine (and maybe even in Russia), the panicked language of Kremlin propagandists becomes ever more shrill. Yesterday, host Olga Skabeeva called for the extermination of every living thing in the Kharkiv region.
......

Putin Puppet Calls For 'Final Solution' In Ukraine

Host Olga Skabeeva called for the extermination of every living thing in the Kharkiv region.

crooksandliars.com

 

[ZiprHead]

Genocide in Ukraine.
.....
As Russia stumbles towards inevitable defeat in Ukraine (and maybe even in Russia), the panicked language of Kremlin propagandists becomes ever more shrill. Yesterday, host Olga Skabeeva called for the extermination of every living thing in the Kharkiv region.
......

Putin Puppet Calls For 'Final Solution' In Ukraine

Host Olga Skabeeva called for the extermination of every living thing in the Kharkiv region.

crooksandliars.com

They're such nice people over there.

 

[TomC]

They're such nice people over there.

Apparently, Tucker Carlson is also popular on Russian TV. I didn't see any reason to believe that she's any more important, politically, than Carlson. Maybe less so, since Carlson is an American spewing pro-Putin crap.
Tom

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The fact is, Russian media is heavily censored. If this sort of genocidal talk is allowed on air, that means it is tolerated. And this is not the only such occurance of such outrageous media. There have been on air media talking heads, demanding Russia crush Ukraine and the on to Poland. Nuke England. And more.

As Maya Angelo has stated, "When somebody tells you who they are, believe them".

 

[Politesse]

I get very tired of trying to sort out any sort of reality from this war of propaganda.

 

[TomC]

I get very tired of trying to sort out any sort of reality from this war of propaganda.

Somebody smart, likely Samuel Clemens, once said "The first casualty of War is Truth".

All too true.
Tom

 

[Politesse]

I get very tired of trying to sort out any sort of reality from this war of propaganda.

Somebody smart, likely Samuel Clemens, once said "The first casualty of War is Truth".

All too true.
Tom

Oh, truth flies out the window well before the war starts. If potential soldiers and investors understood exactly who they will be fighting, for what goals and to line whose pockets, and for what risk/compensation? Even the most authoritarian of governments would struggle to maintain a fighting force.

(The quote comes from another tetchy Californian, though, long time state senator and committed isolationist Hiram Johnson)

 

[Elixir]

Even the most authoritarian of governments would struggle to maintain a fighting force.

S’okay, AI can take it if people would rather not. As long as there’s still a robust market for expendable munitions and people willing and able to put them under AI control, it’s all good. Why get killed on some shitty front line when you can get killed in the comfort of your own home?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

There is no force in the world that can stop this nation from achieving its sacred goal of living in freedom on its God-given land.

Freedom is Our religion

Those Ukrainians make good videos.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

It looks like GOP candidate Nikki Haley is pro-Russia on the Ukraine invasion issue. Bad candidate! Bad Nikki! No vote for you! Slava Ukraine!

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[SLD]

Looks like Putin is forced to basically impress people into fighting in Ukraine. No wonder he can’t make any headway. They are basically just sending people out to be killed for nothing. He’s got minimal support for this special operation; no one will risk their lives for him. The only way he can get them to fight is to threaten to kill them. That can’t result in a long term success.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has apparently launched its long awaited counter-offensive. Too early to tell how well it’s going. But large scale attacks around the edges of Bakhmut have started. I wouldn’t expect an easy time of it, but I think they can bust through their outer defenses, and then split them up badly. It will not be quick.

 

[Copernicus]

Russia has committed a major ecological and humanitarian atrocity in southern Ukraine. It was occupying the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, and set off an explosion in the engine room of the plant, blowing up the entire Nova Kakhovka Dam itself. The objective appears to have been a desperate effort to impede the upcoming Ukrainian offensive by flooding a large area. The dam was also used to supply water from the Dnipro River to Crimea. The extent of damage from this criminal act is still being assessed. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant will also be endangered by this act, because water levels are dropping there.

Ukraine dam supplying water to Crimea, nuclear plant is breached, unleashing floods​

 

[bilby]

Russia has committed a major ecological and humanitarian atrocity in southern Ukraine. It was occupying the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, and set off an explosion in the engine room of the plant, blowing up the entire Nova Kakhovka Dam itself. The objective appears to have been a desperate effort to impede the upcoming Ukrainian offensive by flooding a large area. The dam was also used to supply water from the Dnipro River to Crimea. The extent of damage from this criminal act is still being assessed.

Ukraine dam supplying water to Crimea, nuclear plant is breached, unleashing floods​

For fucks sake, a power plant was destroyed, and a completely different power plant where there is "no immediate nuclear safety risk at (the) plant" is the one in the fucking headline???

Why???

It's a rhetorical question. The fact is that any non-zero risk, however minuscule, at a nuclear power plant is more trouser-browning than any amount of risk (or even any amount of actual deaths and destruction) at a non-nuclear plant, because people are fucking idiots.

A minor point of information; The world's worst ever power plant disaster, that killed somewhere between 26,000 and 240,000 people, was at a hydroelectric power facility (Banqiao Dam in China). Hydroelectric plants are seriously fucking dangerous (in stark contrast with nuclear power plants which are the safest kind of power plant ever built).

 

[zorq]

To be fair, the Kakhovka plant was a run-of-the-river power plant where little to no water storage is provided. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_Hydroelectric_Power_Plant

The chances of this destruction causing flooding or endangering anyone directly are pretty miniscule. The entire article is kind of a clickbait.

 

[Rhea]

By disrupting the water flow to Crimea, does Ukraine get a dividend from this in the added difficulty of Russians operating in Crimea?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Russia is blaming Ukraine, Ukraine is blaming Russia. Russian officials at the area blame previous damage to the dam for its failure. The real problem is that Crimea's drinking water came from this resevoir.

What is the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine — and what happened?

By Guy Faulconbridge MOSCOW (Reuters) - A huge Soviet-era dam on the Dnipro River that separates Russian and Ukrainian forces in southern Ukraine was breached on Tuesday, unleashing floodwaters across the war zone. Ukraine said Russia had destroyed it, while Russia said Ukraine sabotaged it to...

www.rawstory.com

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

By disrupting the water flow to Crimea, does Ukraine get a dividend from this in the added difficulty of Russians operating in Crimea?

Maybe I'm old school, but blowing up the raw water lines would probably result in actually achieving that goal and much less collateral damage to Ukraine, but that might make it obvious it was Ukraine maybe? Technically Russia has been attacking public infrastructure, so it isn't as if this would be a new tactic for them. The retained height of water wasn't particularly high, but volumes can make up for that, however, for dams breaking, this is kind of a not terrible one.

And the other thought is OMG... Soviet era engineering collapsed?! NO WAY! Sometimes natural excuses are also the most accurate. I'm sure there will be a thorough investigation.

I'd suppose the most interesting accusation is:

Russia said Ukraine sabotaged the dam to cut off water supplies to Crimea and to distract attention from its faltering counteroffensive.

2023 Pot calling the kettle black Award of the Year?

I'd say both sides gain and lose something with this.

 

[Copernicus]

To be fair, the Kakhovka plant was a run-of-the-river power plant where little to no water storage is provided. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_Hydroelectric_Power_Plant

The impact of the dam is still being assessed, so it is probably too early to start minimizing the impact it will have in the region. It held a huge reservoir--roughly the size of Utah's great Salt Lake. Not only will drinking water be severely affected, but large areas of farmland will suffer the loss of irrigation. About 85% of Crimea's water supply came from this dam.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_Hydroelectric_Power_Plant

The chances of this destruction causing flooding or endangering anyone directly are pretty miniscule. The entire article is kind of a clickbait.

Clickbait is more of a way to pump up minor news stories, but this one is in the major headlines for good reason. They say that it will take roughly 5-7 days for water levels to start receding, and it will flood large areas downstream--roughly 100 towns and villages, primarily but not only on the Ukrainian side of the front--impacting roughly 22,000 lives. There are no casualty figures yet, but major evacuations are underway.

It still isn't clear what caused the breach, although the Ukrainians said that an explosion was set off in the engine room at around 3 am. Russia actually did blow up the dam once before to stop the advance of German troops:


Second world war: Dnieper dam blown up by Russians – archive, 1941

Back in October, Ukraine warned that the dam had been mined by Russia in preparation for blowing it up. In November, Russia released a lot of water through the sluice gates, apparently in an effort to stop Ukrainian advances. So it looks likely that this was Russian sabotage along with the standard lie that the other side did it. The dam was of major benefit to Ukraine, so they would definitely have wanted it intact after the end of the war. Russia is the side more in danger of losing the territory. Moreover, it caused more flooding in Ukrainian-held territory than Russian-held territory.