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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

I'll be damned. Prigozhin could actually pull this off. Rostov is 1000km from Moscow though, and a lot can happen before he reaches the capital.

But where's Putin?
 
barbos said:
Harry Bosch said:
Your country has stolen land,
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Native americans and mexicans called and asked, does that mean we get land back?
Russia did not steal anything from Galicia, all that land has been Russia since before US even existed.
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Sorry to nitpick, but Russia took Crimea from the Ottomans in 1783. USA was founded in 1776.

And it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter what used to belong to what nation the longest. With that argument you can argue that anyone has the right to invade anyone because anyone alive today comes from a group that at some point was the rulers of everything.

The Crusades were about retaking lost Christian lands to Christendom/Rome. That's what they told themselves back then. Nobody today thinks that was a justified invasion, even though Jerusalem had been Roman way longer than Muslim.

You have an outdated way of looking at the world that should have died with Hitler
 
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blastula said:


www.theguardian.com

Mercenary troops withdraw from Rostov as Prigozhin calls off rebellion – as it happened

The mercenaries’ chief said he had halted his troops to avoid ‘Russian bloodshed’, and he is not facing charges
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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I fear that in one sense not much will happen. Putler will call on his air forces to destroy them, i don't think they’ve got heavy armor, it’s more like an armed mob just marching and so far everyone has just left them alone.

But the Russian military has proven itself to be so incompetent in their invasion, so maybe they can’t stop them. Maybe as well this will push the people out in the streets. What will that mean? What if Prigozhin actually takes power? He’s likely to be worse than Putin, and will he continue the war? But even if does can he? At that point the rest of the military would tell him to fuck off.

As pointed out early in this entire thread, a good fraction of their military is necessary to secure their regime against their own people. That observation has proven prescient. Putin has to keep a large portion of his military back to protect himself, and a large portion to police his front line troops. But the impact on his abilities to conduct an offensive is severe.

so what’s the ultimate impact on the invasion? Obviously not good for Russia. It will have a huge impact on frontline morale. But it may not fall apart completely. Putin still has his Chechen militia that maybe he can count on. Maybe. His regular army units do seem to be able to defend if not attack. But maybe now is the time for Ukraine to throw everything at them. A strong push that breaks through the lines now could be a double blow that Putin cannot recover from.

We live in interesting times. Unfortunately.
 
It looks like Prigozhin's little temper tantrum is over. He probably looked at a map and decided that Russia was a very big country, and he only had about 25,000 troops that were low on ammo. He reportedly got as far as Lipetsk before turning around. That man has a bright future ahead of him. I'm sure that Putin doesn't hold grudges and will want to give him a lot more stocks of ammo and weapons. :unsure:

Wagner chief says he ordered his Russian mercenaries to halt march on Moscow and return to Ukraine​

 
SLD said:
A threat of a coup? Interesting. Also what’s the impact of him pulling his troops out? They’re the only ones who are half good.
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Coup? It's not in France, it can only be a transfer of power by military means!
 
According to what I've read, charges against Prigozhin are being dropped, and he will go into exile in Belarus. Not sure how long he'll be permitted to live there, but I'm sure he'll be washing his underwear himself rather than sending it out to be done. Lukashenko is said to have brokered the deal with Putin. Wagnerites that did not participate in the march on Moscow will be offered contracts with the Russian military. Theoretically, the others won't be punished.

Wagner boss to leave Russia and charges dropped, state media says
 
Copernicus said:
It looks like Prigozhin's little temper tantrum is over. He probably looked at a map and decided that Russia was a very big country, and he only had about 25,000 troops that were low on ammo. He reportedly got as far as Lipetsk before turning around. That man has a bright future ahead of him. I'm sure that Putin doesn't hold grudges and will want to give him a lot more stocks of ammo and weapons. :unsure:

Wagner chief says he ordered his Russian mercenaries to halt march on Moscow and return to Ukraine​

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I think it was a power play that didn’t pan out. It looks to me like Prigozhin thought the Russian elite also wanted to get rid of Putin. But unfortunately they seem to have disagreed. Then he activated plan B
 
So Wagner group part of Russian military now. How I'm the bleeping heck is that possible? How many in the Wagner group disappear.
 
When it dawns to Wagnerites that Prigozhin sold them out in exchange for his own life, they're not going to be happy. But what are they going to do? They got decapitated. Assuming Putin keeps his promise and won't prosecute anyone, their choices are pretty much to either continue as before, or quit and become pig farmers or something.

Wagner might continue to operate in Africa and Middle-East with the same model and brand as before, just under new management.

EDIT: According to WSJ, the US is delaying sanctions against Wagner. Why the heck? It's still a mercenary group that commits war crimes. Nothing has changed, from sanction point of view. There's absolutely no need to go soft on Wagner because of what happened to "appear to not take sides" and it could also give the impression that USA somehow is behind Wagner's little insurgency, a lie that many pro-Russian propagandists like Scott Ritter are already spreading.
 
Jayjay said:
When it dawns to Wagnerites that Prigozhin sold them out in exchange for his own life, they're not going to be happy. But what are they going to do? They got decapitated. Assuming Putin keeps his promise and won't prosecute anyone, their choices are pretty much to either continue as before, or quit and become pig farmers or something.

Wagner might continue to operate in Africa and Middle-East with the same model and brand as before, just under new management.
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I think they indeed quit. You think they’ll enthusiastically return to the frontlines? Russian army would not know what to do with them. They certainly can’t trust them. Give them weapons? I think they likely go home. What a fiasco.
 
It could also be extravagant theatre for Putin to change policy towards Ukraine without losing face. Prigozhin initially didn't even mention Putin and had his tanty over the Russian military leadership. Putin "forgave" Prigozhin and put Gerasimov and Co on the chopping block. So any changes now in the Ukraine campaign can be blamed solely on mistakes and failures by the leadership of the Russian military which puts Wagner and Putin in the clear.
 
Patooka said:
It could also be extravagant theatre for Putin to change policy towards Ukraine without losing face. Prigozhin initially didn't even mention Putin and had his tanty over the Russian military leadership. Putin "forgave" Prigozhin and put Gerasimov and Co on the chopping block. So any changes now in the Ukraine campaign can be blamed solely on mistakes and failures by the leadership of the Russian military which puts Wagner and Putin in the clear.
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Ew.
I wish this weren't a sensible interpretation.
I preferred the Russian war machine imploding interpretation. A lot.


Que sera, sera. I guess.
Tom
 
I don't think that the military will have any trouble assimilating Wagner fighters who want to take a military contract. They have experience in the battlefield, and Russia needs every soldier it can get just to defend the territory that they stole from Ukraine.
 
Copernicus said:
I don't think that the military will have any trouble assimilating Wagner fighters who want to take a military contract. They have experience in the battlefield, and Russia needs every soldier it can get just to defend the territory that they stole from Ukraine.
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Wagner wants more power to kill more Ukrainians...
 
Thomas II said:
Copernicus said:
I don't think that the military will have any trouble assimilating Wagner fighters who want to take a military contract. They have experience in the battlefield, and Russia needs every soldier it can get just to defend the territory that they stole from Ukraine.
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Wagner wants more power to kill more Ukrainians...
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Wagner wants the cushy contracts in Africa where there is serious bank to be made with under the counter deals with the locals whilst representing Mother Russia.
 
Patooka said:
Thomas II said:
Copernicus said:
I don't think that the military will have any trouble assimilating Wagner fighters who want to take a military contract. They have experience in the battlefield, and Russia needs every soldier it can get just to defend the territory that they stole from Ukraine.
Click to expand...
Wagner wants more power to kill more Ukrainians...
Click to expand...
Wagner wants the cushy contracts in Africa where there is serious bank to be made with under the counter deals with the locals whilst representing Mother Russia.
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As mercenaries do...
 
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