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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?
- Thread starter Harry Bosch
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T.G.G. Moogly
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Putin is in the same place Stalin was when Hitler invaded Russia. Stalin was nowhere to be found, Dictators have a habit of disappearing when the shit hits the fan. It probably happens because they know so many people have a score to settle.
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Trench warfare. Not for the squeemish. Looks like some of the Russians don't even have rifles.
DrZoidberg
Contributor
This is just something we love to believe about Russia.
Fun fact, in WW1 the Russians produced so many Mosin-Nagant rifles and ammo that they could have equipped every single soldier in WW2 without having to produce more rifles and ammo. They made more weapons anyway. But in hindsight, they needn't have bothered.
The idea that Russian soldiers went to battle without firearms in WW2 was always just an urban myth. They were well supplied. The Russians themselves like to spread myths about how resourceful and scrappy they are. But it's just mythmaking. One piece of this mythmaking that has gotten picked up and misunderstood is the Russian armies relationship to their standard issue trench digging shovel. The MPL-50. It's designed so as to also be able to be used as a battle axe. And they will brag about going to battle with this shovel and killing enemies with it. These annecdotes then get picked up by western opinionaters as evidence that Russians go into battle without guns, carrying nothing but a shovel. This is exactly how the idea arose that some Russians at the Battle of Stalingrad didn't have rifles.
Industrial mass production of weapons today is really really efficient. And cheap. We perfected the method of cranking out a near endless supply of dirt cheap firearms sometime during the Napoleonic wars. After that, access to firearms, for any army, has been a non-issue. Yes, even Russia.
In war one major military objective is to cut off your enemies supply lines. To starve out a geographically isolated enemy units from amunition or food. Russian supply lines in Ukraine are still wide open and unthreatened, HIMARS notwithstanding. So that's not happening. Whatever problem Russia has it's not access to weapons. What both Ukraine and Russia has a shortage of is super expensive self guiding misiles. That's not the same thing as basic firearms.
The hard part of warfare is to combine arms in such a way they support eachother for maximum effect. That's as true today as it was when Sargon of Akkad conquered Sumeria.
You're assuming an infinite ability to move those supplies. Russia doesn't have anything like that.
Jayjay
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Russia isn't going to run out of trucks or trains any time soon either. At best, Ukraine can make the logistics a bit harder, and force ammunition dumps to be farther from the front line and more decentralized, which is what it has been done for the past year. But despite that, Russia still has artillery advantage over Ukraine.
Agreed. Working trucks and trains however...
The Russian Army Is Running Out Of Trucks For Its War In Ukraine
The Russian army never had enough trucks to sustain a fast-moving invasion force in Ukraine. The problem has gotten a lot worse now that the Ukrainians have destroyed at least 485 of them — and Russia is going to the desperate length of pressing a motley array of civilian trucks into action.
www.forbes.com
Russians fled in stolen cars & left behind death and destruction: Washington Post
The Ukrainian counteroffensive caught the Russians by surprise. They did not have enough vehicles to evacuate.
tvpworld.com
Retreating Russian troops steal Ukrainian citizens’ motorboats to escape across Dnipro River
Russian troops have resorted to stealing motorboats from local residents as they seek to escape Ukraine’s major counteroffensive near the city of Kherson, Ukrainian officials said Friday.
www.washingtontimes.com
Jayjay
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The fact that this column was written in March 2022, and the war is still going on, seems to prove my point.Agreed. Working trucks and trains however...
The Russian Army Is Running Out Of Trucks For Its War In Ukraine
The Russian army never had enough trucks to sustain a fast-moving invasion force in Ukraine. The problem has gotten a lot worse now that the Ukrainians have destroyed at least 485 of them — and Russia is going to the desperate length of pressing a motley array of civilian trucks into action.
Hoping for Russia to end the war because they don't have enough trucks, rifles, ammunition or pants is foolish. All of these things can be produced in large quantities rather easily.
I seriously doubt Russia's logistical capabilities are even remotely close to what you optimistically describe. I do seem to recall you saying Russia's winter offensive (that never happened) was going to be devastating as well. Like I've said before, I understand the dangers of seeing this conflict as "Ukraine are the goodies and goodies always win", but dude - your constant skepticism has consistently been proven unfounded.
DrZoidberg
Contributor
I think Russia does. There's nothing that stops Russian supply routes. All the routes are wide open.
Russia has a potential problem, and that is supplying Crimea if the Ukranian army manages to push to the sea of Azov. But Ukraine is nowhere near there. This offensive seems to have stalled.
lpetrich
Contributor
Renegade Russian mercenary Prigozhin is in Belarus -Lukashenko | Reuters
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko brokered the deal.
Flightradar24: Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map - that site tracked the flight of an airplane linked to YP's private army. It took off at Rostov-on-Don and landed at Minsk, Belarus's capital.
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko brokered the deal.
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
Russian prisoners are being taken without shoes, with inadequate clothing and without adequate food, ammunition and water. How long can Russia go on like this?
T.G.G. Moogly
Traditional Atheist
Why is it necessary to keep reminding everyone that this is all part of the plan? Everything is going according to plan.
/barbos
Jayjay
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That's probably how they live back home too. So I'd say they can continue like this for a very long time.
Putin is squeamish about new mobilization rounds, or using conscripts, but I think eventually he will have to tap into those reserves too, as unpopular as it might be. But the longer he waits, the better Ukraine can prepare. If Putin had started the mobilization in spring of 2022 instead of autumn, Russia might never have lost Kharkiv or Kherson.
Jimmy Higgins
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I'd say Jayjay's posting has been valuable and insightful. They are a lot more local and have a better reading on the pulse of the situation. While sometimes, a bit more skeptical, I think they've been right more often than "wrong". As far as attrition, Russians have endured much much much worse than this. They suffered greatly on both the defensive and offensive sides in WWII. And as we've seen, Putin has access a number of different manners of waging a war.
Elixir
Made in America
I value Jayjay‘s posts a lot. He seems straight on the facts, and as JH points out, his vantage is more local. He’s allowed to be a pessimistic curmudgeon with his predictions if he wants. Prediction is hard, especially when it’s about the future!
Cheerful Charlie
Contributor
Germany vs Russia was different. Hitler had lost in North Africa. The allies were in Italy. The Kriegs marine was badly mauled. Normandy was a successful invasion. Allied bombing was destroying Germany city by city. The Luftwaffe was crippled.
Russia vs Ukraine is far different. T-34s were cheap and easy to build. Modern day tanks that can survive a modern battle field are not. Modern aircraft are far more complex than WW2 aircraft. In WW2 russia built 36,000 Stormovik aircraft. Their best attack aircraft, the SU-57, they have 10 of them. 10.
Russia vs Ukraine is far different. T-34s were cheap and easy to build. Modern day tanks that can survive a modern battle field are not. Modern aircraft are far more complex than WW2 aircraft. In WW2 russia built 36,000 Stormovik aircraft. Their best attack aircraft, the SU-57, they have 10 of them. 10.
Trucks aren't particularly consumed, so there's no running out of. Rather, they are a logistics limit. The stuff isn't self-transporting, Russia has a limited number of trucks to haul it to the front. Russia is heavily dependent on trains for hauling things around--but if they put the transfer point within range of Ukrainian weapons it goes boom. Trucks are effectively immune from long range attack so they operate unmolested, but they have a limited capacity and the farther back the transfer point is the longer per run and thus the fewer runs.
We don't see the transfer points going up very much but that doesn't prove the problem isn't real--Russia knows not to do it within range of Ukrainian weapons. The staging points only go boom when Russia doesn't realize it's within range.
bilby
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More local than what? Finland is a thousand miles from Ukraine.