How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Cheerful Charlie]

Russia does everything right? Rape, murder and torture? Youtube has several channels dedicated to playing intercepted cell phone calls from Russian troops home. It is a pure horror show. Russia doesn't do much right and it is killing young Russians for nothing.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Obama recognized Crimea as part of Russia. Secret service is going to to have extra work now.

Obama recognized the world wasn't going to do anything about it.

 

[SLD]

A threat of a coup? Interesting. Also what’s the impact of him pulling his troops out? They’re the only ones who are half good.

 

[Gospel]

Asshat gets attacked and threatens retaliation against another asshat. Well I have a word for this asshat. You pissed off more than just another asshat, you stupid asshat!

 

[Copernicus]

Prigozhin's attempt to back himself away from blame for the Ukraine invasion is a continuing saga. Now he is claiming Shoigu bamboozled Putin into invading so that he could get himself another medal. I guess that, in Prigozhin's mind, Putin will jump at the chance to blame Shoigu for his own stupidity, but it is obvious that this war was all Putin's idea. Shoigu has never been anything but a toady to whomever was in power.

Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner chief blames war on defence minister​

"On 24 February [2022] there was nothing extraordinary happening there. Now the Ministry of Defence is trying to deceive the public, deceive the president and tell a story that there was some crazy aggression by Ukraine, that - together with the whole Nato bloc - Ukraine was planning to attack us.

"The war was needed... so that Shoigu could become a Marshal, so that he could get a second Hero Star… the war wasn't for demilitarising or de-nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star."

Prigozhin also blamed the war on oligarchs, condemning "the clan which in practice rules Russia today".

Where is Putin in all of this public bickering? The man looks increasingly incapable of maintaining control. He relies on these military idiots to save him from the disaster he created. If only barbos were in charge, none of this would ever have happened. They'd be vodka-toasting each other in downtown Kyiv Kiev.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Message in English.

Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military

FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped

www.theguardian.com

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

It is like jolly old ancient times when incompetent emperors screwed over their barbarian allies and mercenaries, and got invaded by angry barbarian chieftans.

 

[Jayjay]

Message in English.

Russia investigates Wagner chief for ‘armed mutiny’ after call for attack on military

FSB opens criminal case after Yevgeny Prigozhin accuses Russia’s military of rocket attack and says ‘evil’ leadership must be stopped

www.theguardian.com

Grab your popcorn, this is going to be a hoot.

Wonder what happens when authorities try to execute an arrest warrant on Prigozhin, who's surrounded by his own private amy that's loyal to him, not the Kremlin?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Prigozhin's attempt to back himself away from blame for the Ukraine invasion is a continuing saga. Now he is claiming Shoigu bamboozled Putin into invading so that he could get himself another medal. I guess that, in Prigozhin's mind, Putin will jump at the chance to blame Shoigu for his own stupidity, but it is obvious that this war was all Putin's idea. Shoigu has never been anything but a toady to whomever was in power.

Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner chief blames war on defence minister​

"On 24 February [2022] there was nothing extraordinary happening there. Now the Ministry of Defence is trying to deceive the public, deceive the president and tell a story that there was some crazy aggression by Ukraine, that - together with the whole Nato bloc - Ukraine was planning to attack us.

"The war was needed... so that Shoigu could become a Marshal, so that he could get a second Hero Star… the war wasn't for demilitarising or de-nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star."

Prigozhin also blamed the war on oligarchs, condemning "the clan which in practice rules Russia today".

Where is Putin in all of this public bickering? The man looks increasingly incapable of maintaining control. He relies on these military idiots to save him from the disaster he created. If only barbos were in charge, none of this would ever have happened. They'd be vodka-toasting each other in downtown Kyiv Kiev.

Hiding in a sumptious bunker, somewhere. I do not think he would allow any of the people to all be in the same room with him for any sort of negotiations.

 

[Copernicus]

This report is from the anti-Kremlin Moscow Times:

Prigozhin Says Moscow Strikes Kill 'Huge' Number of Wagner Forces, Vows to 'Stop' Top Brass​

It looks like nothing more than an insurrection that is being put down by the military. Possibly with Putin's blessing, possibly not. Whatever happens, the Wagner Group is finished. They can't defeat the entire Russian military.

 

[Jayjay]

This report is from the anti-Kremlin Moscow Times:

Prigozhin Says Moscow Strikes Kill 'Huge' Number of Wagner Forces, Vows to 'Stop' Top Brass​

It looks like nothing more than an insurrection that is being put down by the military. Possibly with Putin's blessing, possibly not. Whatever happens, the Wagner Group is finished. They can't defeat the entire Russian military.

But they might try. And Prigozhin's probably got his supporters inside the MoD and FSB as well.

 

[Jayjay]

Ukraine hits bridge linking Crimea to mainland in blow to Russian supply route

Ukrainian missiles on Thursday struck one of the few bridges linking the Crimea Peninsula with the Ukrainian mainland, Russian-appointed officials said, cutting one of the main supply routes for Russian occupation forces in southern Ukraine.

www.reuters.com

Video gives a better view of the damage. It's worse than I suspected. That hole is definitely large enough to put the structural integrity in question.

Chongar Strait · Kherson Oblast, Ukraine

★★★☆☆ · Strait

www.google.com

There is already at least one pontoon bridge over the river, and won't disrupt logistics for long. But it does show that Ukraine has the ability to strike deep inside Russian-occupied territory.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

This report is from the anti-Kremlin Moscow Times:

Prigozhin Says Moscow Strikes Kill 'Huge' Number of Wagner Forces, Vows to 'Stop' Top Brass​

It looks like nothing more than an insurrection that is being put down by the military. Possibly with Putin's blessing, possibly not. Whatever happens, the Wagner Group is finished. They can't defeat the entire Russian military.

But they might try. And Prigozhin's probably got his supporters inside the MoD and FSB as well.

Caesar is coming to Rome with his legions. Prigo needs to defect with his troops and head for downtown Kiev before he falls out of a window.

 

[Jayjay]

This report is from the anti-Kremlin Moscow Times:

Prigozhin Says Moscow Strikes Kill 'Huge' Number of Wagner Forces, Vows to 'Stop' Top Brass​

It looks like nothing more than an insurrection that is being put down by the military. Possibly with Putin's blessing, possibly not. Whatever happens, the Wagner Group is finished. They can't defeat the entire Russian military.

But they might try. And Prigozhin's probably got his supporters inside the MoD and FSB as well.

Caesar is coming to Rome with his legions. Prigo needs to defect with his troops and head for downtown Kiev before he falls out of a window.

Reports are coming in that road blocks are being set up in Moscow. Doubtful if Prigozhin's little coup will even get off the ground.

I doubt the guy himself is on his way to Moscow though. Probably will try to get as far as possible from there. But defecting is not an option after all the war crimes Wagner has committed in Ukraine and elsewhere, so his best bet is either to cut some sort of deal where he orders his guys down in exchange for leniency by Putin, or try to vanish in the criminal underground where he came from.

 

[bilby]

surrounded by his own private amy

 

[bilby]

Whatever happens, the Wagner Group is finished. They can't defeat the entire Russian military.

That's what a lot of people said about Ukraine in February of 2022...

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

This report is from the anti-Kremlin Moscow Times:

Prigozhin Says Moscow Strikes Kill 'Huge' Number of Wagner Forces, Vows to 'Stop' Top Brass​

It looks like nothing more than an insurrection that is being put down by the military. Possibly with Putin's blessing, possibly not. Whatever happens, the Wagner Group is finished. They can't defeat the entire Russian military.

Cut off snake's head. Snake dies.

 

[TomC]

Cut off snake's head. Snake dies.

Or grows several more, depending on the metaphorical story you're referring to.
Tom

 

[Jayjay]

Worst case scenario is if Prigozhin's coup actually succeeds without a hitch. He might be worse than Putin ever was.

Best case scenario is if the civil war lasts long enough for Wagner to be eliminated, but the Shoigu and others credibility hit so much that the regime will collapse in internal bickering.

The most likely scenario in my opinion is that Wagner gets mowed down pretty quickly. It's still a positive outcome for Ukraine and the world to get rid of of them.

 

[DrZoidberg]

I agree, this is what should happen. But the Russian seizure of Crimea led to nothing. That was as serious breach of Ukraines sovereignity as it's possible to get. Yet, nothing happened from the International community.

I was under the impression that the annexation was largely welcomed by the majority of Crimeans.

No. That vote was very close. It would not have been even close except for Russia's historical persecution and displacement of the local population and replacement with Russian nationals. But even with that it was very close.

Lol. What? It was a referendum organised by Putin to get the result he wanted.

It was a close vote because Putin wanted it to be. Perhaps he thought it wouldn’t be convincing if it wasn't? Who knows. But that referendum was a complete sham